曾经有专家预测， 只要二孩政策开放，那中国新生儿就会蹭蹭的往上涨，结果被现实狠狠的打了脸，因为这位专家根本就没有考虑到当下 老百姓最需要的 是什么。 中国的生育率低下，总人口眼瞅着就要被 隔壁的邻居给比下去了， 新一代的劳动力越来越少，很多人都在着急，如今国家终于找到了关键点—— 住房。 25个省份实现生育津贴直接发放至个人，2024年参保女职工人均津贴超2.6万元。吉林、江苏等7省实现"生娃基本不花钱"，广州甚至有宝妈分娩后个人仅支 出3.7元。此外，延长产假、 发放育儿补贴、推进托育机构建设等政策也在各地落地。 为什么说生育率低的关键点在于住房？又该如何调整住房？ 高房价成核心梗阻 十几年前，"人口多"还是我国与生俱来的底气，没人会想到 "人口第一"的位置会轻易旁落。联合国 《世界人口展望2024修订版》显示，2023年印度常住人 口达14.29亿，正式超越中国，这一变化背后，是我国日渐稀薄的出生率和持续低迷的生育率。 前言 为了鼓励生育，国家早已多措并举：截至2025年10月， 全国31个省份将辅助生殖纳入医保，惠及超100万人次。 但这些政策在高房价的 "资金黑洞"面前，显得格外苍白。对普通家庭而言， ...

近期，经济学家马光远先生在视频中提出的观点，引发了广泛的讨论。他光远先生认为，中国的高房价绝大部分 是合理的，只有少数城市的房价确实过高，导致整个房地产市场出现了问题。 针对这种复杂的局面，马光远的"少数城市得病"比喻，还是有些启发性的。它提示，应当摒弃"一刀切"的调控思 路，转而采取差异化的精准调控策略。对于真正存在泡沫风险的城市，应当严格执行限购、限贷政策，遏制投机 需求；而对于房价基本合理的城市，则应保持政策的连续性和稳定性，避免误伤刚需。 马光远先生称，从宏观经济角度而言，中国楼市的价格形成机制，确实有其内在的逻辑。过去20多年，由于城镇 化进程进程加快，大量人口从乡村向城市迁移，特别是向一线城市和核心二线城市转移。人口流动带来了巨大的 住房需求，而土地资源的稀缺，又决定了供给的有限。楼市供需关系的紧张，自然推高了大城市的房价。例如， 北京、上海、深圳等一线城市，因其优质的教育、医疗、就业资源，吸引了大量高素质人才聚集，房价的上涨， 在一定程度上反映了这些城市资源的高度集聚效应。 应该认识到，房地产不仅是一个经济问题，更是一个重要的民生问题。高房价带来的社会焦虑，不容忽视，年轻 人因购房压力而推迟结婚 ...

Core Insights - Despite China's large population and robust consumer market, businesses across various sectors are facing increasing difficulties, which is perplexing given the favorable market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - Significant monopolistic practices exist in key industries such as oil, telecommunications, tobacco, and electricity, which are highly profitable yet exclude private capital, intensifying competition in traditional sectors [3] - The repeated impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have severely affected industries like dining, entertainment, tourism, and retail, contributing to a general economic downturn [6] - Rising prices due to imported inflation and increased production costs have suppressed consumer demand, leading to a contraction in the market [8] - High mortgage burdens on consumers have diminished disposable income, limiting their spending capacity and negatively impacting sales performance across industries [10] - The surge in competition from a growing number of entrepreneurs entering traditional sectors, coupled with a shrinking consumer demand, has created an oversupply situation, making it increasingly challenging for businesses to thrive [10]

Core Insights - The central point of the article highlights the disparity between the average per capita savings in China and the actual savings of most households, revealing that while the average savings per person is approximately 94,200 yuan, over half of the households have savings below 300,000 yuan [3][4]. Group 1: Savings Statistics - As of June this year, the total household savings in China reached 131.9 trillion yuan, leading to an average household savings of 282,600 yuan for a typical three-person family [3]. - Only 19.3% of the approximately 495 million households have savings exceeding 300,000 yuan, equating to about 95.53 million households [4]. - A mere 1% of depositors have savings over 500,000 yuan, indicating a significant concentration of wealth among a small percentage of the population [4]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution - The wealth distribution in China is highly unequal, with only 2% of the population holding 80% of the savings, while the remaining 98% possess only 20% [6]. - Among the 1.4 billion population, 560 million individuals have almost zero bank savings, further illustrating the wealth gap [6]. Group 3: Contributing Factors to Low Savings - The overall income level of residents is relatively low, with most monthly incomes ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan, while essential expenditures such as education, healthcare, and daily living costs are significant [6][7]. - High housing prices lead to substantial mortgage burdens, consuming a large portion of household income and leaving little for savings [7]. - The younger generation, particularly those born in the 1990s, faces high debt levels, with an average debt of 127,000 yuan, making it challenging for them to save [8].

Core Insights - The high housing prices in China are significantly impacting the financial stability and lifestyle choices of young people, leading to reduced consumption, lower marriage rates, and declining birth rates [1][3][5][9] Group 1: Housing Affordability - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, the housing price-to-income ratio exceeds 40, while in second and third-tier cities, it ranges from 20 to 25, indicating that residents would need to forgo basic living expenses for decades to afford a home [1] - The average mortgage payment for individuals under 30 accounts for 55% of their monthly income, which is substantially higher than the internationally recognized reasonable threshold of 30% [1][5] Group 2: Impact on Consumption - High housing costs are leading young people to reduce their discretionary spending, affecting demand for clothing, travel, electronics, and automobiles [5] - The retail sales growth rate for consumer goods was only 4.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking a new low in recent years [5] Group 3: Marriage Trends - The number of marriage registrations in China has been declining for 12 consecutive years, with a 6.1% decrease in 2024 compared to 2023, and a further drop of 15.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [7] - Economic pressure and high housing prices are cited as primary reasons for young people delaying or forgoing marriage [7] Group 4: Birth Rate Decline - The number of newborns in China has decreased from 17.58 million in 2017 to 9.54 million in 2024, representing a decline of over 40% in just seven years [9] - The financial burden of mortgage payments discourages young couples from having children, as they struggle to manage their living expenses [9] Group 5: Recommendations - There is an urgent need to lower housing prices to make them more affordable and to provide affordable housing options for low-income families to address these issues [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market continues to show signs of weakness, with July's pending home sales declining for the second consecutive month, reflecting buyer caution amid high home prices and borrowing costs [1] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 0.4% decrease in the pending sales index to 71.7, which is close to the average level for the year, falling short of economists' expectations for a 0.2% decline [1] - Despite a drop in 30-year fixed mortgage rates to a four-month low of 6.67% in early August, financing costs remain double what they were at the end of 2021, when many homeowners refinanced at lower rates [1] Market Conditions - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun indicated that even with some improvements in mortgage rates, housing affordability, and inventory, buyers remain hesitant [1] - Yun warned that unless mortgage rates decline consistently and home prices become more attractive, annualized sales of existing homes are unlikely to exceed 4 million units, a level that has persisted for two years [1] - National home price growth has significantly slowed, with July prices rising only 0.2% year-over-year, and some previously hot markets in the West and South experiencing declines due to inventory buildup [1] Regional Performance - The South, being the largest market for existing home sales, saw a slight decline in pending sales, while the Midwest and Northeast also experienced decreases [1] - Conversely, the West region saw a 3.7% increase in pending sales, indicating a divergence in market performance across different regions [1] Future Indicators - Pending home sales are typically a leading indicator of future actual transactions, as homes usually close one to two months after contracts are signed [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the stark reality of personal savings in China, revealing that having savings of 500,000 yuan places individuals in the top 2% of households, contrary to the common belief that such savings are widespread [3][8] - The disparity in wealth distribution is a significant factor, with 2% of families holding 80% of the savings, indicating a concentration of wealth among a small segment of the population [4][8] Wealth Distribution - The data from China shows that only 10% of the population has savings exceeding 100,000 yuan, while those with over 500,000 yuan are less than 2% [3][4] - The concentration of savings illustrates the severe inequality in wealth distribution, where the majority of families possess minimal savings, often insufficient to cover unexpected expenses [4][6] Economic Factors - High housing prices are a critical burden, forcing many families to rely on loans for home purchases, which depletes their savings and creates significant monthly repayment pressures [6][8] - The mortgage scale in China has reached nearly 39 trillion yuan, with over 200 million families repaying loans, further straining their financial capacity [6][8] Investment Risks - The collapse of high-yield investment products, such as P2P platforms, has led to significant losses in household savings, pushing individuals towards riskier investments like stocks and funds, often resulting in further financial losses [4][8] - The low interest rates on bank deposits have also contributed to the shift towards higher-risk investments, exacerbating the financial challenges faced by many households [4][8] Income Levels - The average income level for many Chinese residents is relatively low, with monthly earnings typically ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan, making it difficult to save substantial amounts [6][8] - Even dual-income households often struggle to save more than 3,000 yuan per month, indicating that accumulating 500,000 yuan could take over 13 years for an average family [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional high savings rate of Chinese residents has drastically declined to a historical low of 24.3% in 2024, down from 45.7% in 2020, primarily due to soaring housing prices and their subsequent impact on household finances [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Decline in Savings Rate - High housing prices have led to substantial mortgage debts, with the average household debt reaching 512,000 yuan, of which over 80% is attributed to housing loans [2]. - The average monthly mortgage payment consumes 42.3% of household income, significantly exceeding the international warning line of 30%, leaving little room for savings [2][5]. - The requirement for large down payments has depleted household savings, forcing families to rely heavily on loans to purchase homes [2]. Group 2: Social Implications of Declining Savings Rate - The decline in savings poses a significant challenge to pension security, with a projected pension gap exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2035, exacerbating the issues of inadequate social security coverage and personal savings [7]. - Consumer demand is expected to shrink as families with low savings will reduce spending during economic downturns, undermining the reliance on consumption for economic growth [7]. - The ability of households to withstand financial shocks is severely compromised, as many families allocate most of their income to mortgage repayments, leaving them vulnerable to unexpected events like job loss or illness [9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Addressing the Issue - There is an urgent need to increase the proportion of residents' income in GDP and create more job opportunities to enhance income levels and risk resilience [11]. - Exploring more reasonable housing policies to control rapid price increases is essential to alleviate the financial burden on residents [11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with a nationwide "selling tide" sweeping across the country, providing some hope for first-time homebuyers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The listing volume of second-hand homes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai has surpassed 150,000 and 180,000 units respectively, with many regions reporting listings exceeding 100,000 units [1]. - The era of high profits in the real estate market has ended, with national housing prices continuously declining since the second half of 2021, leading to significant losses for speculators [3]. - High holding costs, including property fees and maintenance funds, have increased, while housing prices have fallen, putting immense financial pressure on speculators [3]. Group 2: Buyer Behavior - Two main groups are rapidly exiting the real estate market: exhausted speculators and overburdened "follow-the-trend" buyers [1][4]. - Many families, influenced by the "buying frenzy," purchased homes despite poor economic conditions, hoping for future income growth to repay loans, but are now facing unemployment or reduced income due to the pandemic and economic downturn [4][5]. - The continuous decline in housing prices has led to some areas experiencing price drops exceeding the initial down payment, forcing families to sell at a loss to mitigate further financial damage [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact - High housing prices have drained the savings of many buyers, severely weakening their ability to withstand financial risks, with many families dedicating a significant portion of their income to mortgage repayments [5]. - The burden of high mortgage payments has become unsustainable for many, leading to a situation where families are unable to cover basic living expenses [4][5]. Group 4: Government Response - The government is actively promoting a new round of housing system reforms and increasing the construction of affordable housing to meet the needs of low-income families [7]. - Despite these efforts, the risks associated with high housing prices remain significant, and cautious purchasing or renting is currently seen as a more prudent strategy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The savings rate of Chinese residents has plummeted to a historic low of 24.3% in 2024, down from 45.7% in 2020, primarily due to the long-term pressure of high housing prices on household economic structures [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of High Housing Prices - High housing prices have led to a significant decline in household savings, with nearly half of respondents indicating they have little to no savings [1][4]. - The average household debt in China is 512,000 yuan, with over 80% attributed to housing loans, averaging 418,000 yuan [4]. - Monthly mortgage payments consume 42.3% of household income, far exceeding the international warning line of 30%, severely limiting disposable income for savings [4]. Group 2: Consequences of Declining Savings Rate - The drastic drop in savings rates poses serious social challenges, including significant risks to pension security, with a projected pension gap exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2035 [7]. - Families' ability to withstand financial shocks is greatly diminished, as many are burdened with substantial mortgage debts, making them vulnerable to unemployment or health crises [9]. - The decline in savings is expected to lead to reduced consumer demand, undermining economic growth, as families with low savings will cut back on spending during economic downturns [9]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - To address the crisis, it is essential to implement dual strategies: increasing the proportion of residents' income in GDP and improving income distribution [9]. - Additionally, creating more job opportunities is crucial to enhance household income levels and mitigate the impact of high housing prices on savings rates [9].