专题：第九届世界浙商上海论坛暨2025上海市浙江商会年会 来源：上海市浙江商会 "奔涌"，是浙商与时代同频的脉搏，也是商海砥砺铸就的精神图腾。 1月18日，第九届世界浙商上海论坛暨2025上海市浙江商会年会将于上海国际会议中心开幕。本届论坛 以"奔涌"为主题，聚焦中国经济浪潮中浙商的韧性、创新与抱负，持续推动科学家与企业家"双向奔 赴"。 我们特别邀请了郑庆华、王建宇、郭广昌、陆朝阳、谢欣、朱军红、赵延平、任斌等院士专家、技术先 锋及知名企业家作交流分享，为浙商"奔涌"向前，迈向高质量发展带来新的时代注解。 论坛抢先看 -奔腾- 郑庆华 中国工程院院士，同济大学党委书记 AI+概念不断深入人心，从数据流演变到物理交互，AI的应用如何为世界的变革注入澎湃动力？ 谢 欣 飞书CEO 近年来，AI正在"更懂你的业务"，这位贯彻"AI-first"理念的企业家将带来行业的思考与实践。 -奔赴- 王建宇、陆朝阳、朱军红、赵延平、任 斌 从浩瀚宇宙到微观粒子，从苍穹之眼到大地脉动，我们看到了硬科技赛道上"奔赴"的多元图景，既有科 学家的执着探索，也有企业家的务实创新，更有科技与产业协同的强大合力。 -奔流- 王均金 商会 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of AI and its implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding both American and Chinese AI models in the context of global competition [1][3][4]. Investment in AI - Linear Capital has invested over $100 million in AI since its inception, focusing on early-stage technology investments [1]. - The firm encourages its teams to utilize top AI models from both the U.S. and China to gain a comprehensive perspective on AI capabilities [3][4]. U.S. vs. China in AI - The article highlights a competitive landscape where the U.S. has a significant number of Chinese talent (approximately 50% in top AI research) while China boasts a 100% Chinese talent pool [4]. - The U.S. is recognized for its innovative spirit, while China excels in scaling and engineering capabilities [2][4]. Future of Work and AI - Predictions indicate that by 2030, 30% of existing jobs will be replaced by AI, with this figure rising to 40% by 2040 [5]. - The article suggests that the speed of AI adoption will be much steeper than previous technological advancements, potentially leading to a complete restructuring of the workforce by 2050 [5][6]. AI's Impact on Creativity and Value - AI's ability to replicate creative processes raises questions about the unique value of human creativity, as many creative tasks may not be as unique as individuals believe [6][7]. - The article posits that AI does not need to be perfect to replace human roles; it only needs to meet or exceed expectations for specific tasks [6][7]. Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The firm distinguishes between "soap bubble" and "beer bubble" investments, suggesting that while there may be speculative elements in AI, there are also substantial underlying values [10]. - Investments in companies like "White Rhino" and "It Stone Intelligent Navigation" demonstrate the potential for significant growth in AI applications, particularly in robotics and automation [11][12]. Globalization and Geopolitical Context - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of globalization, emphasizing the need to adapt to AI advancements and geopolitical changes to create value [15][16]. - The firm is shifting its investment focus to include global teams that can leverage Chinese supply chains, indicating a strategic adaptation to the evolving landscape [15][16]. Conclusion - The article concludes that AI is not an endpoint but a new beginning, where adaptability and evolution will determine success in the future [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical importance of adapting to AI technologies for survival and success in the evolving landscape of investment and business, highlighting the need for a shift in mindset and operational workflows to embrace AI fully [2][3][28]. Part 01: Competition Between the US and China - The article discusses the historical context of AI, noting that a decade ago, the potential of AI was often dismissed, but it is now recognized as essential for individual and collective survival [6]. - It identifies two key players in the AI landscape: the US, known for its innovative spirit and ability to create from scratch, and China, which excels in scaling and execution [7][8]. - The concept of "含华量" (Chinese by volume) is introduced, indicating a competitive dynamic where the US has a significant proportion of Chinese talent in AI, while China has a fully Chinese talent pool [10][11]. Part 02: Reevaluating Human Value - The article predicts that by 2030, 30% of current jobs will be replaced by AI, with further increases expected by 2040 and 2050, leading to a fundamental restructuring of the workforce [14]. - It argues that AI's ability to replicate creative processes challenges the notion of unique human value, prompting a reevaluation of what constitutes irreplaceable human contributions [15][16]. - The necessity of integrating AI into daily workflows is emphasized, with a call for individuals and organizations to adopt an "AI-first" approach to remain competitive [17]. Part 03: Distinguishing Between Types of Bubbles - The article differentiates between two types of market bubbles: "soap bubbles," which leave no value when they burst, and "beer bubbles," which enhance the experience of the underlying product [19]. - It acknowledges the current hype around AI but suggests that there are substantial underlying values in certain sectors, particularly in robotics and automation [20][21]. - The future of factories is envisioned as highly adaptable environments where robots can quickly switch tasks, driven by advancements in AI and supply chain efficiencies [21][22]. Part 04: Globalization in Transition - The article discusses the historical cycles of global leadership and suggests that the next few decades may see a shift in power dynamics, with a focus on the interplay between AI development and geopolitical changes [25][26]. - It highlights the importance of understanding and leveraging AI advancements in conjunction with global resource integration to create significant value [26]. - The article concludes with a call for entrepreneurs to adapt and innovate in the face of these changes, emphasizing the need for a mindset shift to thrive in a new era [27][28].

Core Insights - The article discusses Marc Benioff's controversial comments regarding public safety in San Francisco and the implications for his company, Salesforce, amidst a backdrop of political and media scrutiny [1][4][5]. Group 1: Public Safety and Political Context - Benioff has been a long-time advocate for public safety and has expressed concerns about police staffing levels in San Francisco, suggesting the National Guard could assist if necessary [1][6]. - His comments were interpreted as a shift towards conservative politics, which sparked significant media backlash and public debate [4][5]. - Following the controversy, Benioff clarified his stance, stating he does not believe the National Guard is needed for safety in San Francisco and emphasized the importance of community partnership [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Dreamforce - The Dreamforce event, hosted by Salesforce, attracts nearly 50,000 attendees and is expected to generate approximately $130 million in revenue for San Francisco, creating around 35,000 local jobs [7]. - The event serves as a platform for showcasing Salesforce's innovations, particularly in the field of agentic AI, which is gaining traction among major companies [11][12]. Group 3: Salesforce's AI Innovations - Salesforce is focusing on agentic AI, which allows for autonomous decision-making and complex workflow execution without constant human intervention, distinguishing it from traditional AI models [8][11]. - The company has seen significant adoption of its agentic AI technology, with over 12,000 customers utilizing it, leading to a 120% year-over-year growth in its Data and AI business segment, reaching $1.2 billion [13]. - Benioff has articulated a long-term vision for Salesforce to become an AI-first company, with a revenue target exceeding $60 billion by fiscal year 2030, indicating a 10% organic compounded annual growth rate [15][16]. Group 4: Market Performance and Perception - Despite the potential of its AI capabilities, Salesforce's stock has declined nearly 25% year-to-date, contrasting with gains seen by competitors like Microsoft and Oracle [9]. - The market's short-term focus has often overlooked the long-term vision and transformative potential of Salesforce's innovations, as highlighted during the Dreamforce event [10][16].

Group 1 - Fiverr announced a transformation to become an "AI-first" company, aiming for a leaner and faster operation with modern AI infrastructure and fewer management layers, resulting in 250 job losses [1] - Fiverr joins other tech companies like Duolingo, Klarna Group, and Shopify in rapidly adopting artificial intelligence as a core strategy [2] - The term "AI-first" is becoming a common rallying cry among companies, indicating a critical need to adapt to technological changes [3] Group 2 - A survey revealed that nearly half of professionals familiar with top company strategies have never heard the term "AI-first," indicating a lack of understanding in the industry [3] - While a third of respondents view AI-first companies as more innovative and efficient, there are concerns that such companies may feel less human and provide a less enjoyable customer experience [4] - The research, conducted by FutureBrand, involved over 3,000 informed professionals and will be part of the FutureBrand Index 2025 [5]

Financial Performance & Growth - Zoom's CFO highlights the company's AI-first vision, focus on innovation, growth acceleration, profitability, and shareholder value creation[20] - Zoom is experiencing accelerating growth driven by enterprise progress, online stabilization, product diversification, new routes to market, and AI monetization[47, 55] - Online revenue growth is stabilizing, moving from -8% to flat[59] - Enterprise revenue continues to drive growth, with implied revenue share increasing from 58% to 60%[65] - The number of customers contributing over $100k in TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue is increasing, representing 32% of total revenue[69, 70] - Zoom maintains strong non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 79%, with a target of 80%[102] - Zoom's non-GAAP operating margin is around 39%[102] - Zoom has executed a $2.7 billion buyback program ahead of schedule, leading to a YoY dilution of -1.9%[103] Product Diversification & AI Innovation - Zoom is diversifying its product set, with Workplace, Phone, and ZCX & Workvivo experiencing growth[77] - Millions of users are actively using AI, with a 4x YoY increase in monthly active users (MAUs)[80, 123] - Zoom is evolving its AI capabilities with AI Companion 2.0, enhancing user capabilities and workflows[122]

Strategy - AI first 意味着从在产品中添加 AI 功能发展到通过 AI 视角重新思考如何规划、构建和交付价值 [4] - AI first 公司需要像初创公司一样的好奇心和敏捷性，同时具备企业般的纪律性，两者并行 [12] - 公司需要平衡当前客户需求和对未来 AI 投资之间的关系，避免过度关注一方而落后 [11] - 规划方式需要拥抱不确定性，学习和发现塑造前进的道路，目的地本身也会随着对可能性的了解而演变 [13] Ways of Working - 需要将发现过程视为可重复的、有意的过程，在规划周期中构建用于实验、黑客马拉松和学习的时间 [19][20] - 将流程视为产品，根据结果评估其有效性，如果流程不能提高方向的清晰度、帮助团队或加速决策，则需要迭代或完全删除 [23] - 从速度转向智能速度，意味着培养有目的地快速行动的能力，在清晰、动力和适应性中工作 [25] People - 成为 AI first 公司主要是一种文化转型，需要重新思考在 AI 时代优秀人才的定义，不仅在 AI 团队中，而且在整个公司中 [26][27] - 投资于 T 型人才，即拥有深厚专业知识，同时可以扩展宽度、快速原型设计、跨部门流畅协作并实现端到端系统的人才 [29] - 需要在整个组织内建立 AI 流利度，让每个团队都感到有能力理解 AI，并有足够的信心使用 AI 进行构建 [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo's recent shift to an "AI-first" strategy has sparked significant backlash from users, leading to a wave of cancellations and negative sentiment on social media, despite the company reporting strong financial growth. Group 1: Company Strategy and Actions - Duolingo announced its transition to an "AI-first" strategy, aiming to replace contractors with AI for tasks that can be automated, which has led to user outrage and a decline in app engagement [5][11][19] - The company has already laid off about 10% of its contractors, primarily affecting translation and content creation roles, as part of this strategy [10][23] - Following the backlash, Duolingo attempted to divert attention by clearing its social media accounts, creating a sense of mystery around its actions [7][21] Group 2: User Reactions and Market Impact - Users expressed their dissatisfaction through social media, with many deleting the app and sharing their experiences, including a notable video that garnered over 5 million views [13][16] - Despite the negative feedback, Duolingo's latest financial report showed a 38% year-over-year revenue increase, with paid subscribers reaching 10.3 million, a 40% growth [21][22] - The company's daily active users increased by nearly 50%, indicating that while there is user discontent, the overall user base may still be growing [21] Group 3: AI Integration and Content Quality - The integration of AI has reportedly increased course development speed by tenfold, allowing for the rapid creation of new language courses [22] - However, concerns have been raised about the quality of AI-generated content, with former content creators noting that AI lacks the creativity and cultural context that human instructors provide [25][27] - The shift to AI has also led to a slight decline in gross margin, from 73% in 2023 to 71.9% in Q4 2024, attributed to the costs associated with AI operations [23]

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo's recent shift to an "AI-first" strategy has sparked significant backlash from users, leading to a marketing maneuver that involved clearing social media accounts to divert attention from the negative feedback regarding the replacement of human workers with AI [5][10][12]. Group 1: AI Transition and User Reaction - The transition to an "AI-first" strategy was officially announced by CEO Luis von Ahn in April 2025, which included plans to gradually replace contractors with AI for tasks that can be automated [10][12]. - Following the announcement, there was a notable increase in user dissatisfaction, with many users expressing their frustration on social media and even canceling subscriptions, leading to a wave of negative sentiment [12][13]. - Duolingo's attempt to create intrigue by clearing its social media accounts was seen as a strategy to shift focus away from the backlash against its AI transition [8][14]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Despite the backlash, Duolingo reported strong financial results, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $230.7 million, a 38% year-over-year increase, and paid subscribers exceeding 10 million, up 40% [18][19]. - The company has significantly improved content production efficiency, claiming a tenfold increase in course development speed due to AI integration [19][20]. - However, while revenue has increased, the gross margin has slightly declined from 73% in 2023 to 71.9% in Q4 2024, attributed to the costs associated with AI operations [21]. Group 3: Quality of AI-Generated Content - Concerns have been raised regarding the quality of AI-generated content, with former content creators noting that AI lacks the ability to create engaging and culturally relevant learning materials [21][22]. - The narrative that AI is merely "empowering" rather than replacing human workers has been challenged, as the company's policies indicate that only non-automatable tasks will see an increase in human staffing [22][24]. - The broader implications of this shift highlight a tension between technological advancement and the human elements of language learning, which are essential for cultural understanding and connection [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo has established an "AI-first" strategy from its inception, focusing on leveraging AI technologies to enhance personalized education and content creation efficiency, rather than being a reactive transformation to current trends [3][7]. Group 1: Duolingo's AI Practices - Duolingo's core vision is to provide the best education globally, believing that technology can democratize access to high-quality education [7]. - The company has utilized machine learning since 2016 for personalized learning, significantly improving learning efficiency through adaptive testing and algorithms [8]. - AI has drastically increased content creation efficiency, with 148 new courses developed in one year after AI implementation, compared to 100 courses over 12 years previously [8][9]. - AI is also used in product features like "Video Call with Lily," allowing users to engage in personalized conversations, enhancing the learning experience [10]. Group 2: Early Lessons - Duolingo initially hesitated in commercializing its product, delaying the implementation of a monetization strategy for too long, which could have been initiated two years earlier [22][23]. - The company faced challenges in hiring experienced management early on, relying too heavily on recent graduates, which led to operational inefficiencies [26]. Group 3: Key Weapons for User Growth - Duolingo's success is attributed to a culture of extensive A/B testing, leading to continuous improvements in user retention and engagement [33]. - The decision to consolidate various educational content into a "Super App" rather than creating separate applications has streamlined user experience and engagement [32]. Group 4: Team Culture - The strong working relationship between the founders, established through prior collaboration, has been crucial for effective decision-making and conflict resolution [36]. - The CEO remains highly involved in product development, which is relatively uncommon in companies of Duolingo's size, ensuring alignment with the company's vision [37].