十余年前，作为Facebook早期最具影响力的华人工程师之一，王淮Harry带着技术派的浪漫情怀，回国 成立了线性资本，从Day1就持续专注于科技早期投资。 当他在畅销书《打造Facebook》里拆解硅谷方法论时，AI还是一个被大多数人视为"疯子"才会谈论的科 幻词汇。但今天，无论你信与不信AI，它确实关乎到未来每个个体和种族的生存。 回顾2025年，线性持续在AI领域保持稳定的出手频次，投出了超过1亿美元的金额。 在AI的非线性加速度下，我们如何重新思考投资的逻辑？如何看待中美之间的科技竞争？当思考可以 被计算，判断可以被预测，那么属于人的价值又该退守到哪里？以下，是Harry的回答： 含华量100%与50%的中美AI战争 我们十年前就在提AI了，那个时候如果你说AI会成为未来垄断性的核心力量，大家都会觉得你疯了， 因为不管从技术还是商业上，都没有办法真正证明这一点。 但今天，无论你信与不信AI，它确实关系到我们未来个体和种族的生存。这个世界变化的速度，总是 超出最乐观者的预期。 我是工程师背景出身，博士就在学机器学习。但这新一波AI能力的体现，从ChatGPT 3.5落地到现在， 它的能力上限也一直在刷新 ...

中美AI技术的差距究竟有多大？针对这一问题，美国专家和马斯克给出了不同的答案，耐人寻味。 美国专家认为，中国和美国在AI领域，差距十分明显，美国在AI技术领域占据绝对性优势。而中国之所以能够在AI领域崭露头角，唯一的优势就是丰富的 电力资源。 马斯克认为，自古以来，中国就是地球上最强大的国家之一，所以他们做出任何伟大的东西都不奇怪，比如Deepseek。 至于马斯克特别提到的DeepSeek，这也不是偶然。这个由中国团队开发的大模型，最近在国际评测中表现十分亮眼。但它的意义远不止一个"中国版 ChatGPT"。DeepSeek的成功背后，是一整套系统在支撑——政策层面，从"新一代人工智能发展规划"到各地算力中心布局，中国在AI领域的投入是持续而 系统的。产业层面，华为的昇腾芯片、百度的飞桨平台、阿里的云计算，这些基础要素正在形成合力。人才层面，中国每年有近500万STEM毕业生，这个 数字是美国的五倍多。 这些因素叠加，才让DeepSeek这样的创新成为可能。它不是天上掉下来的，而是中国AI生态自然生长出的果实。 而马斯克的答案，则代表了创新派，我们会发现，像马斯克、黄仁勋等年轻的科技大佬，在看待中美竞争问题 ...

2026年1月2日，壁仞科技(06082.HK)正式登陆港交所，成为"港股GPU第一股"，开盘一度涨超110%。 随着壁仞科技的挂牌，加上此前已登陆科创板的摩尔线程(688795.SH)、沐曦股份(688802.SH)，以及已 完成IPO辅导、即将申报科创板上市的燧原科技，国产GPU"四小龙"齐聚资本市场的格局即将正式成 型。 "四小龙"即将齐聚 国产GPU"四小龙"的上市进程呈现出"A股+港股"双市场布局的鲜明特征。2025年12月5日，摩尔线程率 先登陆科创板，上市首日盘中最大涨幅超过500%，市值一度突破4400亿元；12月17日，沐曦股份紧随 其后登陆科创板，盘中最高涨幅超700%，单签盈利最高逼近40万元，刷新近十年A股上市首日单签盈 利纪录。 港股市场方面，壁仞科技于2026年1月2日挂牌，发行价19.6港元/股，开盘报35.7港元/股，涨幅达 82.14%，截至当日收盘，报34.46港元/股，总市值826亿港元；A股市场的收官之作则聚焦燧原科技，据 证监会官网公示，该公司已于2026年元旦完成IPO辅导工作，即将正式申报科创板上市，标志着其上市 进程进入实质性阶段。作为专注人工智能云端算力产品的 ...

根据协议，Manus整个团队加入Meta，创始人肖弘成为Meta的副总裁，主管AI代理技术。 Manus会继续在新加坡独立运行，产品和服务照旧。 01 文 | 冷眼观天 2025年12月30日，社交媒体公司Meta宣布，花费数十亿美元买下一家名为Manus的中国AI公司及其母公 司蝴蝶效应。 这是Meta公司历史上金额第三大的收购。 此事发生之后，人们很自然地从中美两国科技竞争的角度去看它。 对美国和对Meta来说，目的很明确。 Manus正好填补了这个空缺。 这家公司的产品是全球第一个通用型AI智能体，技术架构特别，在GAIA标准测试里准确率达到 86.5%，超过了OpenAI的同类产品。 因此，Manus迅速崛起，与DeepSeek一同被视为2025年中国AI领域最引人瞩目的两大突破。 买下Manus，Meta一下子就补上了关键能力——让AI不仅能回答问题，还能自己动手完成复杂任务。 靠着Meta全家桶应用将近40亿的月活用户，这项技术可能很快推广开来，让AI更深入地自动化处理内 容、广告甚至更多生活事务。 当然，这么大手笔的收购，尤其是买下一个核心团队有中国背景的公司，很可能引来美国联邦贸易委员 会的反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has adjusted its semiconductor policies towards China, allowing high-end AI chip exports under strict licensing conditions while delaying new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products for 18 months, indicating a shift from comprehensive restrictions to a more calibrated approach aimed at maintaining a competitive edge [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has decided to impose tariffs on Chinese chips starting in 2027, ending a previous trade investigation initiated by the Biden administration [1][2]. - The USTR's announcement indicates that the U.S. will initially impose zero tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products until June 2027, with specific tariff increases yet to be determined [2][3]. - The 18-month tariff delay is seen as a measure to stabilize global supply chain expectations, allowing multinational companies to adjust their chip procurement and manufacturing strategies in China [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The delay in tariff implementation is perceived as a way to avoid immediate supply chain disruptions and inflation spikes in the U.S., as the country still relies on Chinese supplies for traditional process chips [3][4]. - The U.S. aims to retain negotiation leverage while signaling to China that tariffs could be enacted at any time, creating a strategic ambiguity [5][6]. - The U.S. government is also considering broader tariffs on semiconductor-containing electronic products, which could further complicate U.S.-China relations [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD have received approvals to export certain AI chips to China, indicating a significant influence of commercial interests on policy decisions [6][9]. - NVIDIA's H200 chip, now approved for export, is expected to generate substantial revenue for the company, highlighting the financial stakes involved in U.S.-China tech relations [7][9]. - AMD's CEO has expressed intentions to deepen investments in China, reflecting a trend among U.S. tech firms to navigate the complex regulatory landscape while seeking market opportunities [9][10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing adjustments in U.S. semiconductor policy suggest that while there may be short-term improvements in U.S.-China tech cooperation, the long-term strategic competition and mutual distrust are likely to persist [10][11]. - The fluctuating nature of U.S. policies regarding chip exports indicates that the underlying tensions between the two nations remain unresolved, with potential implications for global supply chains and technological advancements [10][11].

在2025年的尾声，美国对华芯片与半导体政策出现一系列调整。 高端AI芯片在严格许可条件下被允许对华出口，另一方面，针对中国半导体产品的新一轮关税措施被 推迟18个月。与此前不断收紧的对华科技管制相比，这种"放"与"缓"交织的政策节奏显得格外突出，尤 其是在中美科技竞争仍被美方界定为战略博弈关键领域的背景下。 清华大学战略与安全研究中心副研究员董汀向智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）表示，美方近期在科技领域 的一系列对华政策调整，"看上去是政策松动，但实际上是对政策进行了再校准，更具掠夺性。美国对 华科技竞争战略没有变，还是要'赢'，只不过是从全面遏制的'大比分赢'转为保持部分绝对优势的'小比 分赢'。" "建构一种'逆转可能'的战略模糊" 据环球网报道，当地时间12月23日，美国政府宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登 政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。路透社报道称，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）在当天的公告中 表示，"中国在芯片产业领域寻求主导地位的做法'不合理'，给美国商业带来负担或限制，因此可采取 行动"。 在本轮调查中，USTR援引的是1974年《贸易法》第301条款。这一 ...

12月24日，根据最新消息，美国宣布将于2027年6月起，对来自中国的半导体产品加征关税。很多网友看到这个消息后，可能都会感到疑惑。在当前中美科 技竞争日益激烈的背景下，美国决定对中国加征关税并不让人意外，但他们选择从2027年6月开始实施，这背后到底是什么原因？为何要提前这么多年宣布 这一决定？从表面来看，这样的安排显得有些超前。但仔细分析后，我们可以发现，这一决定背后至少有三个重要原因。 总的来说，虽然美国这一次发布的关税决定是未来的承诺，但无论如何，它向中国传达了一种信息——美国在技术领域与中国的竞争将更加激烈。这一决定 可以视为美国为可能的未来科技对抗埋下伏笔，也表明了美国在科技战中准备了长期对抗的决心。对于中国而言，毫无疑问，我们早已做好了应对这种局面 的准备，因为中美之间目前的稳定，某种程度上是为最终的对决做铺垫。这份来自美国的未来通知实际上是在向中国发出一封战书，也暗示了中美科技战争 可能的决战时刻。因此，中国必须提前做好充足准备，迎接即将到来的挑战。 接着，有人可能会提出疑问，美国在半导体领域的技术优势一直都非常明显，为什么他们还要考虑加征关税？这个问题的答案其实很简单：中国在半导体领 域的发 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月24日 华源晨会精粹 20251224 公用环保 算力革命与能源革命共振，美国缺电背景下的电力投资机遇：OpenAI 已 将其截至 2033 年算力投资规模上调至 250GW，2030 年美国最高用电负荷有望突破 1000GW（目前在 820GW 上下），需求大幅上调导致美国可能出现缺电问题。电源 侧可能通过建设气电、核电、储能、SOFC 等形式解决，同时电网建设也有望同步。 此外衍生的问题是：（1）如果美国算力投资继续上调或倾尽全力也无法满足算力需 求，行业发展将如何演化？（2）中美科技竞争背景下，算力投资对中国电力供需有 何影响。发电侧：气电、核电是主力电源，储能、SOFC 作为应急手段。我们测算 在 2030 年 1000GW 的最高预测下，考虑/不考虑既定机组退役时，美国电力缺口为 182/89GW。电网侧：电网投资上调，国内企业或迎出口机遇。电源设备：800VDC 是演化趋势，SST 或将是长期解决方案。国内篇：考虑中国 AIDC 投资与美国相当， 中性情景下 AIDC 和充电桩将拉动十五五用电量复合增长率约 1.1pct、乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The United States maintains an advantage in high-end blueprint design, while China is rapidly catching up in technology application and digital infrastructure, particularly in robotics and electronic engineering talent cultivation [1] - U.S. export controls have accelerated China's domestic chip production but have not completely stifled its technological progress [1][4] - China is addressing restrictions by utilizing low-end chips and acquiring partial technology usage rights [4] - Control over rare earth resources by China poses a potential risk, necessitating the U.S. to enhance investments in rare earth mining and seek collaboration with allies like Australia and Canada to ensure supply chain security [1][5] - Increased research funding and attracting global talent are essential for the U.S. to maintain its technological leadership, alongside ensuring that technological development aligns with its values and standards [1][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S.-China Technology Competition - Technology plays a crucial role in U.S.-China strategic competition, impacting military strength, economic influence, and information dissemination [3] - The U.S. leads in most advanced technologies such as semiconductors, AI frameworks, cloud infrastructure, and quantum computing, while China excels in quantum communication, hypersonic technology, and battery technology [3] - China is rapidly catching up in application areas, with its manufacturing sector utilizing robots at a rate 12 times higher than other countries [3] Section 2: Impact of U.S. Export Controls - U.S. export controls have accelerated China's efforts to reduce dependence on American chips, but they do not guarantee long-term U.S. technological leadership [3][4] - China is working to develop alternative technologies despite facing challenges due to these restrictions [12] Section 3: Rare Earth Resources - China's control over rare earth minerals is a significant concern for the U.S., which is taking measures to invest in rare earth mining and collaborate with allies to secure supply sources [5] Section 4: Measures for U.S. Competitiveness - The U.S. needs to increase research funding, attract top global talent, and ensure that its technological advancements align with its values to maintain competitiveness [6][7] Section 5: China's Strategic Focus - China must continue targeted investments in key areas, support local chip manufacturing, and build international trust to enhance its technological standing [8][9] Section 6: Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency - China is likely the only country that could achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency due to its large pool of STEM graduates and government support, although challenges remain in system integration and maintenance [11] Section 7: AI Competition - The U.S. relies on scaling GPU and computing power to maintain its lead in AI, while China's ability to overcome hardware bottlenecks will be critical [2][14] - Energy supply is a key factor for AI infrastructure, with China's unified grid facilitating easier power delivery compared to the U.S. [13]