Market Overview - Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates rising downside risks to employment, suggesting potential interest rate cuts[4] - The Chinese stock market continues to lead globally, with the ChiNext, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Tech indices rising by 6.1%, 4.2%, and 4.1% respectively[4] Bond and Currency Markets - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 7 basis points to 4.26%, while the U.S. dollar index fell slightly below 100[4] - Global funds have significantly flowed into bond markets, with notable inflows into U.S. and emerging market bonds[17] Capital Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $1.38 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $20.93 billion into Chinese equities[4] - Domestic capital inflows into the Chinese market amounted to $21.64 billion, with foreign capital inflows at $19.55 billion[4] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index decreased to a historical percentile of 43%, while the CSI 300's ERP is at 54%[4] - The overall ERP for A-shares dropped from 59% to 53%[4] Economic Indicators - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 75% from 85.4% the previous week, indicating a shift in market expectations[4] - Key upcoming economic indicators include U.S. Q2 GDP and personal consumption expenditures data[4] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not reflect long-term trends, and there are risks of deeper-than-expected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4]

Market Overview - Global asset prices showed an upward trend, with the Nikkei 225 and ChiNext leading the gains, while most commodities experienced declines[4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6388.64, remaining above the 20-day moving average, indicating strong momentum[4] Capital Flows - As of July 24, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $5.35 million, while passive funds recorded an inflow of $26.01 million[18] - Domestic capital experienced a net outflow of $1.41 million, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $20.66 million[18] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the A-share market decreased to a historical 60th percentile, with the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP dropping from 59% to 53%[4] - The ERP for the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 also saw declines, indicating a shift in valuation sentiment[4] Risk Sentiment - The Chinese options market reflects an optimistic pricing trend, with a notable increase in the volume of call options for the CSI 300 above the 4100 level[4] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.16, suggesting a cautious market sentiment and rising hedging demand[4] Economic Data - U.S. economic data for June indicates resilience, with a significant improvement in CPI and PMI figures, alleviating concerns over stagflation[4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose to 64.5%, reflecting market expectations for monetary easing[4]

2025 年 05 月 18 日 关税和地缘紧张局势缓解，权益上 涨黄金回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250509-20250516) 相关研究 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 大 类 资 产 配 置 告 - ⚫ ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周关税和地缘紧张局势环境均有所缓和。5 月 10 日，巴基斯坦副总理达尔宣布 印巴停火；5 月 12 日，中美瑞士日内瓦谈判取得阶段性成果，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声 明》，宣布暂停部分对 ...