证 券 研 究 报 告 杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔偏鸽，中国权益领涨全球 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250815-20250822) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.08.25 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250815-20250822)本周五的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔整体发言偏鸽，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。但 同时也指出在近期，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行。整体态度偏鸽，但市场也对短期快速降息的预期进行了修正。本周中国股市持续走强，领涨全球股市，1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率下行7BPs至4.26%，美元指数略微下跌，当前位于100以下；2）权益方面，本周中国股市持续走强，创业板、沪深300和恒生科技领涨全球股市，分别上涨6.1%、 4.2%和4.1%；3）商品方面，本周商品类资产多数反弹，布伦特原油上涨1.71%，黄 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中美关税延期与宽松预期支持全球股市普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250808-20250815) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.08.17 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250808-20250815) 2025年8月12日，中美两国在斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈后发布联合声明，宣布自即日起再次暂停实施针对彼此商品的24%关税，为期90天。同时，双方保 留对相关商品加征的剩余10%关税。此外，美国公布的7月PPI环比大幅上涨0.9%，市场预期涨幅0.2%。关税影响逐步体现，美国方面压力逐步升温。美国7月CPI同比上涨2.7%, 预期2.8%，小幅低于预期，9月降息预期边际提升至92.10%。风险偏好和宽松预期支持下，本周全球股市普遍上涨，创业板指数领涨全球。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率上行至 4.33%，美元指数略微下跌，当前位于100以下；2）权益方面，中美斯 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since the pause in rate cuts began this year[3] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The downward revision of May and June non-farm payrolls totaled 258,000, indicating a weakening labor market[3] Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a downturn, with the S&P 500 closing at 6238.01, down 2.36% for the week[8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index remained below 100, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - The A-share index saw a majority decline, with the Hang Seng Tech index leading the losses, while only the Argentine index showed slight gains among emerging markets[3][8] Capital Flows - Significant capital inflows were observed in U.S. and European equity markets, while Chinese markets experienced substantial outflows, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion and foreign investors adding $882 million[3][14] - Over the past week, overseas active funds withdrew $285 million from Chinese markets, while passive funds saw inflows of $1.167 billion[3][14] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight improvement in valuation compared to historical levels[3][12] - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48%[3] Risk Sentiment - Despite significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market, retail investor sentiment remains optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio from 1.13 to 1.00[3] - In the A-share market, over 50% of stocks are trading below their 30-day moving average, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards caution[3] Economic Data - The U.S. manufacturing PMI showed marginal weakness, while new orders PMI remained below the expansion threshold[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 80.3%, with a 58.4% chance of a further cut to 3.75%-4.00% in October[3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 全球资金大幅流出美股，A股期权市场定价乐观 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250718-20250725) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.07.27 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资产价格回顾：本周特朗普(20250718-20250725)指出，只希望美联储降息，没必要罢免鲍威尔，他很快任期届满，相信他会做正确的事。美财长贝森特称，美联储的其 他操作可能影响货币政策独立性，联储影响力太大，应回归本业。欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔24日表示，欧委会提出的对美商品反制清单已获成员国压倒性多数投票通过，如 果在8月7日之前欧美贸易谈判失败，这些反制措施将自动生效。本周多数权益市场上涨，其中日经和创业板涨幅靠前。1）固收方面，本周10Y美债收益率下降4 BPs来到4.40%， 美元指数略微下跌，目前仍在100以下，弱美元格局持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数多数上涨，科创5 ...