Market Overview - Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates rising downside risks to employment, suggesting potential interest rate cuts[4] - The Chinese stock market continues to lead globally, with the ChiNext, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Tech indices rising by 6.1%, 4.2%, and 4.1% respectively[4] Bond and Currency Markets - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 7 basis points to 4.26%, while the U.S. dollar index fell slightly below 100[4] - Global funds have significantly flowed into bond markets, with notable inflows into U.S. and emerging market bonds[17] Capital Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $1.38 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $20.93 billion into Chinese equities[4] - Domestic capital inflows into the Chinese market amounted to $21.64 billion, with foreign capital inflows at $19.55 billion[4] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index decreased to a historical percentile of 43%, while the CSI 300's ERP is at 54%[4] - The overall ERP for A-shares dropped from 59% to 53%[4] Economic Indicators - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 75% from 85.4% the previous week, indicating a shift in market expectations[4] - Key upcoming economic indicators include U.S. Q2 GDP and personal consumption expenditures data[4] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not reflect long-term trends, and there are risks of deeper-than-expected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4]

Market Overview - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on each other's goods for 90 days, leading to a global stock market rally, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains[3] - The US July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating rising inflationary pressures[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.33%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - As of August 14, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $1.36 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $12.32 billion[3] - Domestic capital outflow reached $28.67 billion, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $10.96 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the Shanghai Composite Index decreased from 63% to 59%, indicating a decline in valuation attractiveness[3] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Euro Stoxx 600 have ERPs of 2%, 2%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reflecting varying levels of market valuation[3] Economic Indicators - The US July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the PPI year-on-year was reported at 3.3% against an expectation of 2.5%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 92.10%, up from 88.90% the previous week[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6449.80, above the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend showing a decline[3] - The options market for the CSI 300 indicates a bullish sentiment, with 55% of its constituent stocks above the 5-day moving average[3]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since the pause in rate cuts began this year[3] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The downward revision of May and June non-farm payrolls totaled 258,000, indicating a weakening labor market[3] Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a downturn, with the S&P 500 closing at 6238.01, down 2.36% for the week[8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index remained below 100, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - The A-share index saw a majority decline, with the Hang Seng Tech index leading the losses, while only the Argentine index showed slight gains among emerging markets[3][8] Capital Flows - Significant capital inflows were observed in U.S. and European equity markets, while Chinese markets experienced substantial outflows, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion and foreign investors adding $882 million[3][14] - Over the past week, overseas active funds withdrew $285 million from Chinese markets, while passive funds saw inflows of $1.167 billion[3][14] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight improvement in valuation compared to historical levels[3][12] - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48%[3] Risk Sentiment - Despite significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market, retail investor sentiment remains optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio from 1.13 to 1.00[3] - In the A-share market, over 50% of stocks are trading below their 30-day moving average, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards caution[3] Economic Data - The U.S. manufacturing PMI showed marginal weakness, while new orders PMI remained below the expansion threshold[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 80.3%, with a 58.4% chance of a further cut to 3.75%-4.00% in October[3]

Market Overview - Global asset prices showed an upward trend, with the Nikkei 225 and ChiNext leading the gains, while most commodities experienced declines[4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6388.64, remaining above the 20-day moving average, indicating strong momentum[4] Capital Flows - As of July 24, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $5.35 million, while passive funds recorded an inflow of $26.01 million[18] - Domestic capital experienced a net outflow of $1.41 million, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $20.66 million[18] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the A-share market decreased to a historical 60th percentile, with the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP dropping from 59% to 53%[4] - The ERP for the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 also saw declines, indicating a shift in valuation sentiment[4] Risk Sentiment - The Chinese options market reflects an optimistic pricing trend, with a notable increase in the volume of call options for the CSI 300 above the 4100 level[4] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.16, suggesting a cautious market sentiment and rising hedging demand[4] Economic Data - U.S. economic data for June indicates resilience, with a significant improvement in CPI and PMI figures, alleviating concerns over stagflation[4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose to 64.5%, reflecting market expectations for monetary easing[4]