Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that M1's year-on-year growth rate has shown an upward trend, reaching 4.6% by the end of June, which is the smallest gap compared to M2's growth rate of 8.3% this year, narrowing significantly from the first five months [1] - Analysts expect that in the third quarter, the effects of policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, expectations, and foreign trade, along with the low base effect of M1, will continue to support the year-on-year growth rate of M1 [1] - The "scissors difference" between M2 and M1 is anticipated to remain at a relatively low level, indicating a potential for continued stability in monetary growth metrics [1]

Core Insights - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that the market expects a slight decrease in credit performance for June compared to the same period last year, with government bonds continuing to support social financing growth [1] Group 1: Credit and Financing - The median forecast for new RMB loans in June is 2.03 trillion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion yuan [1] - The median forecast for new social financing in June is 3.9 trillion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 600 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Monetary Supply - The market anticipates that M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rates will continue to rise due to improved market liquidity and the low base effect, along with the gradual allocation and utilization of fiscal funds [1] Group 3: Price Indices - The market expects the year-on-year CPI reading for June to remain around zero, while the year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to remain consistent with the previous month [1] - The median forecast for June's year-on-year CPI growth rate is 0%, and for PPI, it is -3.3% [1]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous month's 5.89 trillion yuan, and below the six-year average of 1.45 trillion yuan for the same period[1][3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.7%, up from 8.4% in the previous month[1][3] - New RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, down from 3.64 trillion yuan in March, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan[1][4] Group 2: Credit Growth Analysis - The combination of strong social financing and weak credit growth is attributed to seasonal factors, accelerated debt collection, and tariff impacts[2][13] - The April credit growth slowdown is influenced by three unconventional factors: seasonal loan patterns, the impact of special refinancing bonds, and the ongoing US-China tariff disputes[11][13] - The M2 money supply growth rate improved to 8.0%, while M1 growth slightly decreased to 1.5%[4][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - A package of financial policies is expected to be implemented, which, along with fiscal efforts in the second quarter, may stabilize key financial indicators[2][13] - The government bond net financing in April was 972.9 billion yuan, contributing significantly to social financing growth, accounting for 84% of the new financing[3][8] - The overall financing environment remains favorable, with a decline in bond yields supporting corporate financing activities[9][15]