经济分析局在通过电子邮件发送的声明中就其对10月份个人收入与支出报告的有关计划作出上述说明。 经济分析局使用劳工统计局的CPI数据，对以现价计的消费者支出统计数据进行调整，以反映价格变化 的影响，并编制美联储官员密切关注的PCE价格指数。 经济分析局在通过电子邮件发送的声明中就其对10月份个人收入与支出报告的有关计划作出上述说明。 美国经济分析局（BEA）表示，由于10月份CPI数据缺失，为了补上估算值，将使用美国劳工统计局提 供的9月和11月CPI的平均值。 早些时候报道：美国10月和11月个人收入及支出数据将于1月22日公布。 经济分析局使用劳工统计局的CPI数据，对以现价计的消费者支出统计数据进行调整，以反映价格变化 的影响，并编制美联储官员密切关注的PCE价格指数。 责任编辑：李桐 美国经济分析局（BEA）表示，由于10月份CPI数据缺失，为了补上估算值，将使用美国劳工统计局提 供的9月和11月CPI的平均值。 早些时候报道：美国10月和11月个人收入及支出数据将于1月22日公布。 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the inability to release key economic data for October, marking a significant disruption in economic reporting [1][3] - The unemployment rate data for October will not be published for the first time since 1942, ending a 77-year streak of continuous reporting [3] - The White House has conflicting statements regarding the release of employment data, with some officials suggesting a complete halt while others indicate partial data may still be available [3] Group 2 - The absence of unemployment and CPI data creates uncertainty for manufacturing and retail sectors, affecting labor cost predictions and pricing strategies [4] - The bond market relies heavily on inflation data for pricing, and the lack of this information may lead to increased market volatility and resource misallocation [4] - Multinational companies are delaying investment plans in the U.S. due to concerns over unclear economic fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has likely prevented the release of the October CPI data due to interrupted funding and mandatory furloughs affecting data collection[4] - The September ADP report indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the third negative employment addition in four months, significantly below market expectations[4] - The September CPI data showed a year-over-year increase of 3% for both nominal and core CPI, which was below market expectations of 3.1%[30] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, with a potential total of 50 basis points reduction remaining in 2025[5] - The median forecast for the terminal interest rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively, indicating a continued easing policy[4] - If the government shutdown ends before the December FOMC meeting, the Fed may receive three months of employment data, which could complicate the policy direction but is unlikely to alter the rate cut plans significantly[4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The Treasury's general fund account balance has recovered from a low of $300 billion to a target level of $800 billion, while reserves have decreased by approximately $400 billion due to the ongoing government shutdown[5] - The market is expected to experience a trend of easing policies, which may help stabilize market volatility following recent tensions in U.S.-China relations and liquidity concerns[5] - The external macroeconomic environment is anticipated to remain favorable, reflected in a moderate decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[5] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential risks from tariff policies and geopolitical developments that could impact the pace of rate cuts[6] - The ongoing government shutdown poses a risk to timely data releases and could hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding monetary policy[4]

Core Insights - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the September CPI inflation data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, raising concerns about data accuracy and completeness [1][8] - The CPI data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy considerations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts in late October [1][7] - Market expectations suggest that the September CPI will show a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, marking the highest level in 17 months [2][9] Economic Data and Predictions - Predictions indicate that the overall CPI will rise by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% both month-over-month and year-over-year [2][10] - The summer saw an acceleration in CPI growth, with August recording the largest increase of the year, surpassing economists' expectations [6] - Analysts from Bank of America expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase in overall CPI, with core CPI remaining at 3.0%, slightly below market consensus [6][7] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - The futures market indicates a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 96.1% chance of another cut in December [7] - Analysts believe that the upcoming CPI data will not contain information significant enough to alter the Federal Reserve's decision-making for October [7][10] - Concerns about the reliability of the CPI data have been raised due to the government shutdown, which has affected data collection processes [8][9] Expert Opinions - Economists from Moody's and Oxford Economics predict slight increases in CPI, with core CPI showing moderate growth due to ongoing tariff impacts and rising labor costs [9][10] - Analysts emphasize that the persistence of inflation is more related to tariff-related costs rather than demand-driven factors, supporting the Fed's inclination to continue rate cuts [7][9]

Group 1 - The core focus of Wall Street is on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to significantly influence market trends due to the lack of government data caused by the shutdown [1][2] - Economists predict a 0.4% month-over-month increase in overall CPI for September, maintaining the same level as August, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from August [1][2] - The report is crucial as it will be the last significant economic data before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [2][4] Group 2 - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the CPI data due to the government shutdown, which has led to a lack of comprehensive economic indicators [4] - The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump administration on prices will be closely monitored, particularly in categories like communication and household goods [3][4] - A significant deviation from expected CPI data could act as a catalyst for market volatility, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially leading to market fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide better insights into the momentum of inflation [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely monitoring inflation trends to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The upcoming CPI data is expected to influence the RBA's assessment of economic conditions and potential interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the declining quality of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), indicating that federal budget cuts may be undermining the reliability of key economic indicators such as inflation and employment [1][3] - Powell highlighted that while current data is not yet at a "worrisome" level, the trend of reduced survey coverage by the BLS is indeed troubling, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic data for decision-making by the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1][3] Data Quality Risks - Specific signs of data quality risks have emerged, with the BLS suspending on-site data collection for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in several cities, leading to approximately 30% of May's CPI data relying on estimates, a figure three times the historical average [3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of employment data, with initial estimates of 139,000 new non-farm jobs in May potentially being revised down to around 100,000 due to statistical omissions from small businesses affected by tariff policies [3] Budget Cuts Impact - The deep-rooted issue points to reduced federal funding, with the Trump administration's proposed budget cuts of $56 million to the BLS continuing the trend of fiscal tightening observed earlier in the year [3] - The funding shortfall has directly weakened the BLS's data collection capabilities, as the agency needs to cover 75 cities and 200 product categories to calculate the CPI, but is increasingly relying on estimation models due to a shrinking statistical network [3] Market Concerns - There are growing market concerns that distorted data may mislead the Federal Reserve's policy direction, potentially resulting in monetary decisions that do not align with the actual economic cycle if inflation is underestimated or employment market weaknesses are obscured [3]