Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the inability to release key economic data for October, marking a significant disruption in economic reporting [1][3] - The unemployment rate data for October will not be published for the first time since 1942, ending a 77-year streak of continuous reporting [3] - The White House has conflicting statements regarding the release of employment data, with some officials suggesting a complete halt while others indicate partial data may still be available [3] Group 2 - The absence of unemployment and CPI data creates uncertainty for manufacturing and retail sectors, affecting labor cost predictions and pricing strategies [4] - The bond market relies heavily on inflation data for pricing, and the lack of this information may lead to increased market volatility and resource misallocation [4] - Multinational companies are delaying investment plans in the U.S. due to concerns over unclear economic fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has likely prevented the release of the October CPI data due to interrupted funding and mandatory furloughs affecting data collection[4] - The September ADP report indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the third negative employment addition in four months, significantly below market expectations[4] - The September CPI data showed a year-over-year increase of 3% for both nominal and core CPI, which was below market expectations of 3.1%[30] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, with a potential total of 50 basis points reduction remaining in 2025[5] - The median forecast for the terminal interest rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively, indicating a continued easing policy[4] - If the government shutdown ends before the December FOMC meeting, the Fed may receive three months of employment data, which could complicate the policy direction but is unlikely to alter the rate cut plans significantly[4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The Treasury's general fund account balance has recovered from a low of $300 billion to a target level of $800 billion, while reserves have decreased by approximately $400 billion due to the ongoing government shutdown[5] - The market is expected to experience a trend of easing policies, which may help stabilize market volatility following recent tensions in U.S.-China relations and liquidity concerns[5] - The external macroeconomic environment is anticipated to remain favorable, reflected in a moderate decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[5] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential risks from tariff policies and geopolitical developments that could impact the pace of rate cuts[6] - The ongoing government shutdown poses a risk to timely data releases and could hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding monetary policy[4]

北京时间周五20:30，美国劳工部将公布9月CPI通胀数据。这份报告原定于上周发布，但因政府关门而推迟至今。市场既希望这能为美联储降息前景提供指 引，又担心停摆期间公布的数据不完整、不准确。 为了确保美国社会保障局能够"按法定时限准确、及时地发放福利金"，该机构临时召回部分被迫休假的工作人员整理数据。根据劳工统计局声明，"在政府 恢复正常运作前，不会重新安排或发布其他经济数据。" CPI同比恐创17个月最高，但难撼动降息预期 市场预测，9月的数据将与前值相近，认为CPI环比和同比将分别录得0.4%和3.1%，核心CPI环比和同比将分别录得0.3%和3.1%。如果最终公布数值符合预 期，这将表明CPI通胀同比创下自2024年5月，即17个月以来的最高水平。 这将是美国政府关门三周以来首份重磅报告。CPI数据在美联储的政策考量中至关重要，是判断是否在10月底会议后再次降息的核心依据。若通胀强于预 期，且数据显示美国总统特朗普的关税政策带来显著影响，将进一步强化美联储保持谨慎的理由。 另外，贵金属在避险需求和美联储降息预期推动下屡创新高后，本周出现获利回吐和大幅抛售，现货金银均从历史高位大幅回调。市场聚焦于今晚的C ...

Group 1 - The core focus of Wall Street is on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to significantly influence market trends due to the lack of government data caused by the shutdown [1][2] - Economists predict a 0.4% month-over-month increase in overall CPI for September, maintaining the same level as August, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from August [1][2] - The report is crucial as it will be the last significant economic data before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [2][4] Group 2 - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the CPI data due to the government shutdown, which has led to a lack of comprehensive economic indicators [4] - The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump administration on prices will be closely monitored, particularly in categories like communication and household goods [3][4] - A significant deviation from expected CPI data could act as a catalyst for market volatility, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially leading to market fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide better insights into the momentum of inflation [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely monitoring inflation trends to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The upcoming CPI data is expected to influence the RBA's assessment of economic conditions and potential interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the declining quality of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), indicating that federal budget cuts may be undermining the reliability of key economic indicators such as inflation and employment [1][3] - Powell highlighted that while current data is not yet at a "worrisome" level, the trend of reduced survey coverage by the BLS is indeed troubling, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic data for decision-making by the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1][3] Data Quality Risks - Specific signs of data quality risks have emerged, with the BLS suspending on-site data collection for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in several cities, leading to approximately 30% of May's CPI data relying on estimates, a figure three times the historical average [3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of employment data, with initial estimates of 139,000 new non-farm jobs in May potentially being revised down to around 100,000 due to statistical omissions from small businesses affected by tariff policies [3] Budget Cuts Impact - The deep-rooted issue points to reduced federal funding, with the Trump administration's proposed budget cuts of $56 million to the BLS continuing the trend of fiscal tightening observed earlier in the year [3] - The funding shortfall has directly weakened the BLS's data collection capabilities, as the agency needs to cover 75 cities and 200 product categories to calculate the CPI, but is increasingly relying on estimation models due to a shrinking statistical network [3] Market Concerns - There are growing market concerns that distorted data may mislead the Federal Reserve's policy direction, potentially resulting in monetary decisions that do not align with the actual economic cycle if inflation is underestimated or employment market weaknesses are obscured [3]