要剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免费声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或词价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 FF FREE STEP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月11日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 II-2509 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,但测试关键 IH2509 股指 大金融强势推升,股指再冲高位 IC2507 位置附近需谨慎操作。考虑买入低执行价看跌期权 后卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛市价差策略。 IM2509 12509 债市缺乏驱动的情形下,权益市场表现强势压制债市,不过基 单边策略上建议暂观望,待调整企稳后适当多配。 TF2509 国债 本面和资金面对债市的支撑未扭转,短期调整企稳后可能出现 曲线策略上中期推荐关注做陡。 TS2509 多配机会 11 2509 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bioethanol industry is at risk due to the US-UK trade agreement, which could jeopardize a proposed £250 million green fuel "super center" project unless government intervention occurs [1][2] Group 1: Industry Impact - The trade agreement signed on May 8 provides US ethanol producers with a tax-free quota of 1.4 billion liters, equivalent to the UK's annual bioethanol demand [1] - Two major UK bioethanol plants have indicated that such a large quota would force them to close [2] - The ABF Sugar-owned Vivergo plant is facing a deadline for negotiations with the government regarding its future, with potential layoffs for 160 employees if no agreement is reached [1][2] Group 2: Financial Implications - Prior to the US-UK trade agreement, the Vivergo plant was already losing between £30 million to £40 million annually, attributed to pollution permit regulations that favor US competitors [2] - Industry executives are calling for regulatory changes to increase the bioethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 10% to 15% and are requesting £75 million in annual short-term subsidies to offset losses during the transition [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The proposed collaboration between Vivergo and green hydrogen producer Melder Energy aims to create a "super center" that would utilize green hydrogen for grain drying in bioethanol production, while Vivergo would supply ethanol for sustainable aviation fuel [2] - Vivergo's general manager has highlighted that recent government decisions, including the trade agreement with the US, have severely threatened the survival of the bioethanol industry [2]

一方面的方目解 投资咨询业务资格: 班监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月9日 操作建议 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,考虑买入低 执行价看跌期权同时卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛 市价差策略。 T2509短期波动区间或在108.8-109.2。单边策 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 | | 国债 | TF2509 TS2509 | 资金利率筑底叠加股债跷跷板效应,期债短期或呈窄幅震荡 | 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金融 | | TL2509 | | 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 | | | | | | 短期关注美国通胀和关税影响,金价维持在3300 | | | 贵金属 | AU2508 | 市场消化部分美国关税影响 美元走强黄金回落 | 美元(765元)附近波动,卖出790以上虚值黄金 | | | | AG2508 | | 看涨期权;白银走势受到黄金和有色工业品影响反 | | | 集运指数 ...

Core Point - The European Commission has removed tariff preferences for non-fuel ethanol imports from Pakistan [1] Group 1 - The decision impacts the cost structure for Pakistani ethanol exporters, potentially making their products less competitive in the EU market [1] - The removal of tariff preferences may lead to a decrease in the volume of non-fuel ethanol imported from Pakistan [1] - This change aligns with the EU's broader trade policy adjustments and could influence future trade negotiations with Pakistan [1]

2025.06. 17 本文字数：2279，阅读时长大约4分钟 当地时间6月16日，在加拿大召开的七国集团（G7）峰会上，美国总统特朗普与英国首相斯塔默签 署了上个月宣布达成的英美《经济繁荣协议》。然而，这份备受关注的协议并未兑现双方早前承诺的 全部内容。 根据特朗普同日签署的行政令，协议仅落实了英国汽车和航空航天产品的关税优惠安排，而钢铁和药 品关税的削减仍待后续谈判。这一结果使得协议的实际覆盖范围较预期有所缩水。 斯塔默对此表示欢迎，称这项协议落实了汽车和航空航天行业的关税安排，是英美两国"强劲关系的 象征"。 英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会（SMMT）首席执行官霍斯（Mike Hawes）则表示，这将使"许多制 造商能够立即恢复交付"。不过，他同时称："我们仍在等待协议的全部细节以及如何执行。" 协议中仍存在一些悬而未决的问题，钢铝产品和药品的关税问题尚未得到最终解决。英国政府在5月 发布的声明中称，双方已同意钢铝关税降至零。但根据行政令，美国商务部长将在评估英国遵守供应 链安全标准的情况后，在未来为英国钢铝产品制定关税配额，目前超出配额的进口仍需缴纳现行关 税。在药品方面，行政令称，两国将继续就优惠待遇进 ...

Group 1: Agreement Overview - The recently signed agreement between the US and UK is described as a "trivial small tariff agreement" by UK Conservative Party leader Badenoch, indicating its limited scope compared to previous commitments [1] - The agreement primarily focuses on tariff reductions for UK automotive and aerospace products, while steel and pharmaceutical tariffs remain under negotiation, leading to a narrower actual coverage than expected [1][5] - The agreement lacks legal binding force, allowing either party to modify or withdraw at any time, raising concerns about its stability and execution [1][8] Group 2: Automotive and Aerospace Tariffs - UK-produced cars will benefit from a tariff quota of 100,000 units annually at a 10% tax rate, which is lower than the 25% tariff imposed on other trade partners [3] - Import tariffs on UK aerospace products will be eliminated immediately upon publication in the Federal Register, aligning with the WTO Civil Aircraft Agreement [4] Group 3: Outstanding Issues - Tariff issues regarding steel and pharmaceuticals remain unresolved, with the US Secretary of Commerce set to evaluate the UK's compliance with supply chain security standards before establishing steel and aluminum tariff quotas [5][6] - The UK government aims for zero tariffs on core steel products, but negotiations are ongoing, and the implementation timeline is uncertain [6][8] Group 4: Agricultural Trade - The agreement allows US farmers to export 13,000 metric tons of beef to the UK annually, a significant increase from the previous quota of 1,000 metric tons, while maintaining strict food safety standards [7] - The UK will also provide a duty-free quota of 1.4 billion liters for US ethanol producers, which is equivalent to the UK's total annual ethanol demand, raising concerns among domestic producers [7] Group 5: Broader Trade Context - The agreement is viewed as a memorandum rather than a comprehensive trade deal, failing to meet the standards of a free trade agreement and violating WTO's most-favored-nation principle [8] - The slow progress of trade negotiations is highlighted, with the UK being the only country to reach such an agreement with the US so far [8]

一家英国乙醇生产商警告称，免关税的美国进口产品将对其业务构成风险，该公司表示，现在挽救产量 几乎为时已晚。运营商Ensus在一份声明中表示，在5月份与美国达成贸易协议后，位于英国威尔顿的工 厂面临"即将关闭"的局面。停产将导致该工厂100多个工作岗位流失，并影响当地约3000人的供应链。 ...

REX American Resources (REX) Q1 2026 Earnings Call May 28, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Bruggeman - VP of Finance, CFO & TreasurerStuart Rose - Executive Chairman & Head of Corporate DevelopmentZafar Rizvi - CEO, President & Director Conference Call Participants Peter Gastreich - Managing Director - Energy and Sustainability Analyst Operator Greetings, and welcome to the REX American Resources Corporation's First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are i ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, ethanol sales volumes were 70.9 million gallons, down from 74.5 million gallons in Q1 2024, with an average selling price of $1.76 per gallon [10] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $14.3 million, slightly down from $14.5 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower sales prices for dry distiller grains [11] - Net income attributable to REX shareholders was $8.7 million or $0.51 per diluted share, compared to $10.2 million or $0.58 per diluted share in Q1 2024 [12] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q1 were $315.9 million, reflecting ongoing capital investments and share repurchases [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dry distiller grain sales volumes were approximately 153,000 tons with an average selling price of $145.65 per ton [10] - Modified distillery grain volumes totaled approximately 22,000 tons with an average selling price of $73.44 per ton [11] - Corn oil sales volumes were approximately 21.4 million pounds during the quarter with an average selling price of $0.46 per pound [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. ethanol exports through March 2025 were nearly 19% higher than the same period in 2024, with March 2025 exports up 23% compared to March 2024 [16][17] - The company anticipates stable performance in Q2 2025, expecting another profitable result [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth initiatives, including carbon capture and expansion of ethanol production capacity, with a combined budget range of $220 million to $230 million for both projects [5][9] - REX continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities that meet strict operational and financial criteria [5] - The company is committed to delivering consistent value to shareholders through share buybacks, having repurchased approximately 822,000 shares for $32.7 million in Q1 2025 [6][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate uncertain regulatory and market conditions, highlighting the strength of the balance sheet [4] - The company is closely monitoring potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act and other regulatory developments that could impact future economic decisions [8] - Management remains optimistic about the ethanol sector's favorable market conditions and expects record corn production to boost profits for the rest of the year [29] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong financial position with no bank debt [13] - The ongoing technical review of the ethanol facility expansion is expected to enhance long-term operational efficiencies [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drives REX's ability to consistently deliver performance? - Management attributed consistent profitability to strong leadership, effective monitoring of market conditions, and a dedicated team [20][22] Question: What specific deregulation measures would help smooth the runway? - Management noted that regulatory developments are currently in limbo and emphasized the importance of monitoring changes closely [24][27] Question: Thoughts on industry fundamentals and ethanol margins? - Management expects positive trends in ethanol margins due to strong corn production and favorable export conditions, while also monitoring natural gas prices closely [29]

Core Viewpoint - The sale of Huishang Bank shares by COFCO Technology for 103 million yuan marks the completion of its financial asset divestment plan, reflecting the company's strategic focus and highlighting issues with its core business profitability and reliance on asset disposals to improve financial statements [1][2]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - COFCO Technology successfully transferred 40.31 million shares of Huishang Bank, accounting for 0.2902% of the bank's total equity, to Anhui Investment Group [1]. - The initial listing price for the shares was set at 156 million yuan in February 2024, but was reduced to 103 million yuan due to market caution regarding Huishang Bank's shares [2]. - The divestment is part of a broader strategy to reduce non-core assets, aligning with the national directive to focus on real economy and mitigate financial market volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance Insights - In 2024, COFCO Technology reported a net profit attributable to shareholders, but the adjusted net profit was a loss of 76.6397 million yuan, indicating insufficient core business profitability [3]. - The company's net profit improvement was largely driven by asset disposals and government subsidies, while its main sectors, such as food and bioenergy, are experiencing revenue growth without corresponding profit increases [3]. - The bioenergy segment remains vulnerable to international crude oil price fluctuations, with Brent crude oil prices dropping by 12% in 2024, leading to a 9% decrease in fuel ethanol prices and a revenue decline of approximately 320 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Transformation Challenges - The short-term benefits of selling Huishang Bank shares include alleviating liquidity pressure and optimizing asset structure, but the long-term value hinges on the company's ability to rebuild its core competitiveness [4]. - COFCO Technology must innovate in high-margin markets through products like allulose, capitalize on biodegradable materials for green economy opportunities, and enhance collaboration with COFCO Group in procurement and distribution [4]. - Successfully transforming the "stopgap" effect of asset sales into "blood-generating" business upgrades is crucial for COFCO Technology to redefine its identity beyond being a "cyclical enterprise" [4].