Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: April 1, 2026 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 3045 to 3365, with a daily change of -150 on March 31. The price of华南现货 decreased from 3140 to 3375, with a daily change of -113 on March 31. The price of鲁南折盘面 increased from 3010 to 3195, with a daily change of -3 on March 31. The price of西南折盘面 remained stable at 2450. The price of河北折盘面 increased from 2985 to 3135, with a daily change of 150 on March 31. The price of西北折盘面 decreased from 2963 to 3245, with a daily change of -20 on March 31. The price of CFR中国 remained stable at 379, and the price of CFR东南亚 remained stable at 590. The进口利润 remained stable at -56, and the主力基差 increased from 40 to 120, with a daily change of -15 on March 31. The盘面MTO利润 remained stable at -1106 [2] Plastic Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained stable at 1400 on March 25 - 27 and increased to 1450 on March 30 - 31. The price of华北LL remained stable at 8550 on March 30 - 31. The price of华东LL decreased from 8850 to 8775, with a daily change of -200 on March 31. The price of华东LD increased from 10800 to 11150, with a daily change of 250 on March 31. The price of华东HD remained stable at 9250 on March 30 - 31. The price of LL美金 remained stable at 1125, and the price of LL美湾 remained stable at 1381 on March 25 - 27 and increased to 1403 on March 30 - 31. The进口利润 increased from -609 to -504, and the主力期货 decreased from 8715 to 8614, with a daily change of -190 on March 31. The基差 increased from -250 to -270, with a daily change of 30 on March 31. The两油库存 remained stable at 77, and the仓单 decreased from 4652 to 0, with a daily change of -2211 on March 31 [13] Propylene and PP Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 decreased from 8970 to 8700, with a daily change of -40 on March 31. The price of东北亚丙烯 remained stable at 1250 on March 27 - 31. The price of华东PP decreased from 9450 to 9005, with a daily change of -445 on March 31. The price of华北PP decreased from 9313 to 9150, with a daily change of -163 on March 31. The price of山东粉料 decreased from 9130 to 8930, with a daily change of -200 on March 31. The price of华东共聚 decreased from 9410 to 9330, with a daily change of -80 on March 31. The price of PP美金 remained stable at 1245, and the price of PP美湾 remained stable at 1500. The出口利润 remained stable at 88, and the主力期货 decreased from 9269 to 9103, with a daily change of -166 on March 31. The基差 increased from -150 to -120, with a daily change of 30 on March 31. The两油库存 remained stable at 77, and the仓单 decreased from 1644 to 0, with a daily change of -1644 on March 31 [20] PVC Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of西北电石 remained stable at 2750. The price of山东烧碱 remained stable at 757 on March 27 - 31. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased from 5520 to 5280, with a daily change of -190 on March 31. The price of乙烯法 - 华东 remained stable at 5500. The price of电石法 - 华南 remained stable at 5450. The price of电石法 - 西北 decreased from 5450 to 5230, with a daily change of -20 on March 31. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained stable at 1060, and the出口利润 remained stable at 2110. The西北综合利润 remained stable at 356, and the华北综合利润 remained stable at -244. The基差 (高端交割品) decreased from -170 to -180, with a daily change of -10 on March 31 [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

Group 1 - The BASF (Guangdong) integrated base project in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province has been fully put into operation, representing the largest single investment project by a German company in China with a total investment of approximately 8.7 billion euros [1] - The base has successfully launched 18 sets of facilities and 32 production lines, producing over 70 types of products including basic chemicals, intermediates, and specialty chemicals, serving industries such as transportation, consumer goods, electronics, home care, and personal care [1] - The facility features the world's first ethylene joint unit with a main compressor (electric drive) fully powered by renewable energy, with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons and high feedstock flexibility to process various types of raw materials [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

Group 1: Methanol - Methanol price data from March 24 to March 30, including动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit [2] - Daily changes on March 30:动力煤期货 remained unchanged,江苏现货 increased by 172,华南现货 increased by 260,鲁南折盘面 increased by 150,西北折盘面 increased by 180,主力基差 increased by 20, and other indicators remained unchanged [2] Group 2: Plastic - Plastic price data from March 24 to March 30, including东北亚乙烯, prices of different types of plastics in different regions, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [12] - Daily changes on March 30:华东LL increased by 175,华东LD increased by 150,华东HD increased by 300,主力期货 decreased by 64, and warehouse receipts decreased by 1512, while other indicators remained unchanged [12] Group 3: Propylene and PP - Propylene and PP price data from March 24 to March 30, including山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, prices of different types of PP in different regions, export profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [19] - Daily changes on March 30:山东丙烯 increased by 640,华东PP increased by 440,华北PP increased by 380,山东粉料 increased by 300,华东共聚 increased by 250,主力期货 decreased by 44, and warehouse receipts decreased by 5953, while other indicators remained unchanged [19] Group 4: PVC - PVC price data from March 24 to March 30, including西北电石,山东烧碱, prices of different production methods in different regions, import price, export profit, comprehensive profits in different regions, and basis [20][21] - Daily changes on March 30:电石法 - 华东 increased by 10,电石法 - 西北 decreased by 100, and other indicators remained unchanged [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA restarts and increases production, while polyester reduces production. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, and overseas production cuts continue. There are potential multi - allocation opportunities as PX de - stocking is expected to be gradually realized [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production load reduction slows down, and coal - based production restarts. With overseas production cuts and changes in port inventory, short - term de - stocking speed may accelerate, but the long - term balance sheet is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end production increases, but the short - term upward drive is weak due to the terminal's wait - and - see attitude and the substitution effect of recycled materials. Attention should be paid to potential passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the PTA inner - disk spot price increased from 6725 to 6810, and the POY 150D/48F price increased from 9075 to 9245. The PTA processing difference changed from 77.7 to 81.8, and the daily average transaction basis was 2605(-58) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA restarts and increases production, polyester reduces production, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, and arene spreads between the US and Asia increase [3]. MEG - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the MEG outer - disk price increased from 637 to 657, and the MEG inner - disk price increased from 5223 to 5443. The MEG coal - based profit increased from 1126 to 1281, and the basis was around 05(+5) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production load reduction slows down, coal - based production restarts, overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits improve. Supply may still have some load reduction, and short - term de - stocking speed may accelerate [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber price increased from 8400 to 8460. The short - fiber profit changed from - 34 to - 120, and the spot price was around 8472, with a basis of about 06 - 50 [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end production increases, sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. The demand side has stable production start, raw material inventory is maintained, and product inventory accumulates [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price increased from 1970 to 2030, and the Shanghai full - latex price increased from 15825 to 16140. The weekly change in the RU main contract price was 395, and the NR main contract price increased by 790 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The main strategy is to wait and see, and the main contradiction is not specified [3]. Other Aromatic Hydrocarbons - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained at 1400, the pure benzene (CFR China) price increased from 1072 to 1127, and the styrene (CFR China) price increased from 1335 to 1405 [5]. - **Profit Data**: The styrene domestic profit was 480 on March 30, and the EPS domestic profit was - 962 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful mass production of a new 20% silicon PC powder product, CH9030P, by Cangzhou Dahua, which significantly enhances performance in extreme low-temperature applications, addressing a critical gap in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Product Development and Performance - The development team focused on key aspects of product research and production, including the selection of siloxane copolymer monomers, optimization of ratios, and molecular weight control [4]. - Through extensive experimentation and iterative processes, the team improved the core indicators of the CH9030P product by two levels, particularly enhancing its impact resistance in low-temperature environments (notably at -60°C) by over 30% [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The advancements in the CH9030P product effectively resolve previous limitations in application scenarios, paving the way for broader market applications [4].

广州慧谷新材料科技股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市之 上市公告书提示性公告 保荐人（主承销商）：中信证券股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 经深圳证券交易所审核同意，广州慧谷新材料科技股份有限公司（以下简称 "慧谷新材""公司""本公司"或"发行人"）发行的人民币普通股股票将于2026 年4月1日在深圳证券交易所创业板上市，上市公告书全文和首次公开发行股票并 在创业板上市招股说明书全文披露于中国证券监督管理委员会指定的信息披露 网站（巨潮资讯网，网址 www.cninfo.com.cn；证券时报网，网址 www.stcn.com； 中证网，网址 www.cs.com.cn；中国证券网，网址 www.cnstock.com；证券日报 网，网址 www.zqrb.cn；经济参考网，网址 www.jjckb.cn；中国金融新闻网，网 址 www.financialnews.com.cn；中国日报网，网址 cn.chinadaily.com.cn），并置备 于发行人、深圳证券交易所、本次发行的保荐人（主承销商）中信证券股份有限 公 ...

广州慧谷新材料科技股份有限公司 股票简称：慧谷新材 股票代码：301683 （广州经济技术开发区新业路 62 号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 之 上市公告书 保荐人（主承销商） （广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座） 二〇二六年三月 广州慧谷新材料科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 第一节 重要声明与提示 特别提示 广州慧谷新材料科技股份有限公司（以下简称"慧谷新材""本公司""公司"或 "发行人"）股票将于 2026 年 4 月 1 日在深圳证券交易所上市。 创业板公司具有业绩不稳定、经营风险高、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较大的 市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板市场的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审慎 作出投资决定。 本公司提醒投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素，在新股上市 初期切忌盲目跟风"炒新"，应当审慎决策、理性投资。 如无特别说明，本上市公告书中的简称或名词释义与《广州慧谷新材料科技股份有 限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市招股说明书》（以下简称"招股说明书"）中 的相同。如本上市公告书中合计数与各加数直接相加之和在尾数上存在差异，系由于四 舍五入所致 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC weekly report released by Guantong Futures on March 30, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Supply - PVC开工率环比增加0.80个百分点至80.90%，处于近年同期中性偏高水平 [3][17] - 部分海外装置负荷下降，出口价格上涨，国内部分有出口订单企业开工相对较好 [3] - 齐鲁石化、天津LG等乙烯法装置仍有降开工负荷预期 [3] Demand - 春节假期后第五周，PVC下游平均开工率回升4.30个百分点至45.96%，较去年农历同期减少1.21个百分点 [3] - 2026年1 - 2月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、销售、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大 [3][23] - 截至3月29日当周，30大中城市商品房成交面积环比回升25.46%，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平 [23] Inventory - 截至3月26日当周，PVC社会库存环比增加0.20%至137.40万吨，比去年同期增加70.63%，库存压力仍然较大 [25] Price - PVC冲高回落 [4] - 目前05基差在 - 190元/吨，基差处于偏低水平 [12] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - 中东局势风云变幻，行情波动大，建议暂时观望 [3]