Summary of China Travel & Leisure Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China travel and leisure industry**, particularly the performance of various companies in the sector during **3Q25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Trends - **Weaker Disposable Income**: Disposable income growth slowed to **4.5%** in 3Q25 from **5.1%** in 2Q25, impacting consumption trends which fell to **3.4%** from **5.2%** [2][3]. - **Domestic Air Traffic**: Increased by **3%** year-over-year (yoy) in 3Q25, down from **6%** in 2Q25 [2]. - **Outbound Travel**: Normalized to **15%** yoy growth, significantly lower than **34%** and **24%** in 1Q and 2Q25 respectively, as flight capacity returned to pre-pandemic levels [2]. Company Performance Highlights - **Songcheng**: Reported a **10%** yoy revenue decline due to competition and health issues [3]. - **CTGDF**: Revenue decline narrowed to flat yoy in 3Q25 from **-11%** and **-8%** in previous quarters, with a **14%** increase during the Golden Week holidays [3][6]. - **Jinjiang and BTG**: RevPar improved to declines of **-2%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, compared to **-5%** and **-6%** in 2Q25 [3][6]. - **Chinese Airlines**: Benefited from lower fuel costs and traffic recovery, with domestic traffic up **13%** and international traffic up **11%** [6]. - **Shiji**: Revenue increased by **7%** yoy, but net loss widened to **Rmb12 million** due to higher impairment losses [6]. Macau Casino Performance - **Macau GGR**: Increased by **13%** yoy in 3Q25, up from **8%** in 2Q25, driven by factors such as the wealth effect from the stock market and reduced diversion of travelers to other destinations [7]. - **Sands China and MGM**: Results exceeded expectations, with Sands China expected to report **US$1.901 billion** and MGM **US$1.091 billion** in revenue for 3Q25 [7][10]. Samsonite Expectations - Expected to report a narrower revenue decline of **-2%** yoy in 3Q25, improved from **-5%** in 2Q25, driven by better performance in the US and Asia [7][10]. Hotel Operators - **H World and Atour**: Both expected to report better-than-expected results due to stabilizing hotel RevPar and robust retail sales growth [7][10]. - **RevPar Forecasts**: H World and Atour projected declines of **-0.4%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, with revenue growth forecasts of **+7%** and **+35%** yoy [8][10]. OTA Performance - **Trip.com and Tongcheng**: Expected to meet revenue guidance with Trip.com projected to grow **+15%** and Tongcheng **+9%** [9][10]. - **Profit Margins**: Potential for improved profit margins due to favorable revenue mix shifts towards higher-margin businesses [9]. Other Important Insights - **Investor Focus**: Investors are expected to pay close attention to companies' forward guidance during their 3Q25 results to assess the sustainability of the recovery [2][10]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Despite recent performance, share prices of US-listed chain hotels are still trading below mid-cycle valuations, indicating potential for upward earnings revisions [10][11]. Conclusion - The China travel and leisure industry is showing signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to weaker consumer spending and competition. Companies like H World, Atour, and TCOM are positioned well for growth, while Macau casinos are benefiting from a rebound in gaming revenue. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic about the sector's trajectory moving forward.

Summary of Inbound Tourism Growth in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the inbound tourism industry in China, highlighting its potential growth as a significant profit engine within the next three years, driven primarily by online travel agencies (OTAs) and airlines [1][2][10]. Key Insights 1. **Inbound Tourism Growth**: - Inbound tourism is expected to become a major profit driver for China's tourism industry, which is currently dominated by domestic and outbound travel [1][10]. - The share of inbound tourism in China's tourism revenue is currently 11%, projected to increase to 18% within five years [2]. 2. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - China's service exports grew by 14% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly outpacing the overall export growth of 6% [2]. - Tourism service exports surged by 56%, reaching 150% of pre-pandemic levels [2]. 3. **Regional Growth**: - Non-first-tier cities are becoming increasingly attractive for inbound tourists, with Hangzhou seeing a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound visitors in the first eight months of 2025 [2]. 4. **Policy Impact**: - The introduction of the K1 visa on October 1, 2025, is expected to attract more young talent to China, further boosting the tourism sector [1]. 5. **Profitability Outlook**: - The hotel sector is anticipated to have the highest revenue exposure to inbound tourism, averaging over 20% by 2030 [2]. - OTAs, airlines, and duty-free businesses are expected to see revenue exposure of 5-10% over the next five years [2]. Investment Opportunities 1. **Selected Beneficiary Stocks**: - A list of ten stocks identified as potential beneficiaries of inbound tourism growth includes: - Trip.com (TCOM.O) - Air China (0753.HK) - Shanghai Airport (600009.SS) - China Tourism Group Duty-Free (1880.HK) - H World Group (HTHT.O) - Marriott (MAR.O) - IHG (IHG.L) - Hygeia Healthcare (6078.HK) - CR Mixc (1209.HK) - Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK) [3][11][14]. 2. **Sector Analysis**: - OTAs rank highest in potential profitability due to favorable market conditions and significant synergies with existing operations [10][12]. - Airlines are also positioned well, with new international routes expected to enhance profit margins [12]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The report emphasizes the importance of pricing power in inbound tourism, particularly for OTAs and airlines, which may achieve higher pricing due to increased demand [2][10]. Additional Considerations - The report notes the potential for upward pressure on profit margins from inbound tourism, driven by higher pricing and synergies with existing domestic and outbound operations [2][12]. - The impact of infrastructure upgrades and clean energy investments on air quality is expected to enhance the attractiveness of China as a leisure travel destination [1][10]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the evolving landscape of China's inbound tourism sector, highlighting key growth drivers, investment opportunities, and potential risks associated with this emerging market.

Group 1 - Tmall's "Double 11" event officially started on October 15, offering a base discount of 15% along with additional coupons and subsidies, targeting consumer demand in beauty and apparel sectors [1] - The "88VIP" membership provides a coupon package worth 3250 yuan, including a 1350 yuan no-threshold 10% discount coupon, enhancing customer engagement [1] - Tmall's strategy includes significant subsidies and discounts to counter competition from Pinduoduo and JD.com, while also stimulating market activity through substantial category-specific coupons [1] Group 2 - Meituan launched the "18 Member Surprise Day" on October 15, featuring a significant promotion of 10 million free orders as an initial offer [2] - This upgrade from the "18 God Coupon Festival" aims to enhance member benefits and respond to local market competition, particularly against Ele.me and new entrants like Douyin [2] - The challenge for Meituan lies in balancing subsidy costs with the practicality of member benefits to maintain its competitive edge [2] Group 3 - Fliggy announced the launch of its "Double 11" Global Travel Festival on October 15, with a 60% increase in investment compared to the previous year [3] - This substantial investment is part of Fliggy's strategy to integrate into Alibaba's broader consumer ecosystem and respond to competitive pressures from Ctrip and Tongcheng [3] - The increased investment aims to invigorate the market during the off-peak season, but Fliggy must manage costs and service quality to sustain growth momentum [3]

Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]

Group 1: Travel Market Insights - The average spending per customer during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday increased by 14.6% year-on-year, indicating a trend of consumption upgrade in the travel market [1] - The proportion of post-95 generation travelers is the highest, reflecting the growing influence of younger consumers in the tourism sector [1] - Multi-destination travel trends are evident, with an increase of 5% in average bookings for transportation and 4.6% for accommodations and activities [1] Group 2: Inbound Tourism and Payment Trends - In the first five days of the holiday, the amount spent by inbound tourists using Alipay increased by nearly 40% compared to the same period last year, showcasing the attractiveness of the Chinese retail market [2] - The "Alipay touch" feature saw a staggering 500% increase in spending by foreign users, highlighting the growing adoption of mobile payment solutions [2] - Spending by inbound tourists in retail brands via Alipay surged over 200% year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in shopping enthusiasm among international visitors [2] Group 3: Meituan Travel Performance - Meituan Travel reported a more than 30% year-on-year increase in travel orders during the eight-day "Super Golden Week," reflecting strong consumer demand for travel [3] - The growth in orders demonstrates Meituan's strategic positioning and competitive strength in the tourism market [3]

Group 1 - Regulatory authorities in Guizhou have summoned travel platforms including Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, and Fliggy to enforce compliance with laws and regulations, aiming to curb price irregularities and protect consumer rights [1] - The move indicates an increase in regulatory scrutiny over the tourism market, particularly during peak seasons when demand is high, to prevent price fraud and unfair practices [1] - Platforms are urged to enhance self-discipline, optimize pricing mechanisms, and improve user experience in response to this regulatory action [1] Group 2 - Weimob Group has announced a full integration of Meituan's group purchase coupon redemption capabilities, allowing merchants to create and associate products with coupons through Weimob's backend [2] - This integration provides merchants with more convenient operational tools, potentially reducing marketing costs and improving operational efficiency [2] - Weimob's initiative strengthens its market influence among small and medium-sized merchants [2] Group 3 - Amazon has introduced OpenAI's latest open-weight models on its Bedrock and Sagemaker platforms, enhancing AI agents' reasoning capabilities for enterprise clients [3] - The CEO of Amazon positioned AWS as an "enterprise-level AI tool supermarket," emphasizing the ease of accessing various large models, including those from OpenAI [3] - This move enriches AWS's AI tool offerings and may enhance its competitive position in the market, further promoting AI technology adoption in the enterprise sector [3] Group 4 - Taotian Group has initiated its recruitment for the 2026 cohort, planning to issue around 1,000 offers across more than 70 positions, with a significant focus on AI roles [4] - The proportion of technical positions has risen to 90%, with nearly 50% of these being AI-related roles, including technology, product, operations, and design [4] - This recruitment strategy reflects Taotian Group's commitment to cultivating AI talent from the ground up, enabling the company to secure top talent for future challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration has summoned five travel platforms, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, and Fliggy, to address pricing irregularities and ensure compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration emphasized the need for strict adherence to the Price Law, Anti-Monopoly Law, and regulations against price fraud [1][2]. - The administration will closely monitor the competitive landscape of the involved platforms and will take strict actions against those that violate regulations or fail to rectify issues [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Self-Regulation - Various travel industry associations in Guizhou have initiated a campaign to maintain fair pricing during the summer tourism season, urging operators to follow principles of fairness, legality, and integrity [2][3]. - The Guizhou Provincial Consumer Association has called on consumers to pay attention to pricing information when selecting accommodations and dining options, while urging operators to comply with clear pricing regulations [3]. Group 3: Penalties for Non-Compliance - The administration has issued a warning letter requiring accommodation providers and third-party platforms to adhere to pricing laws, with penalties for violations including fines up to 500,000 yuan for price fraud and 3 million yuan for price gouging [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration is taking strict measures against price irregularities in the tourism sector, emphasizing compliance with relevant laws and regulations to maintain a fair and orderly market environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On August 5, the Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration held a meeting with major travel platforms, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, and Fliggy, to address potential violations such as "choose one from two," price manipulation, and price fraud [1]. - The administration has mandated these platforms to conduct self-inspections and rectify any illegal practices, including price gouging and abuse of market dominance [1][2]. - Future monitoring will focus on compliance, with severe penalties for non-compliance, including public exposure of typical cases [1]. Group 2: Industry Initiatives - The Guizhou Travel Agency Association and Guiyang Tourism Association have initiated a campaign to uphold price order during the summer tourism season, urging operators to adhere to principles of fairness and honesty [2]. - A joint statement from the Guizhou Homestay Association and the Guizhou Catering Industry Association has called for strict compliance with pricing laws, particularly against practices like temporary price hikes and misleading pricing [2]. Group 3: Legal Framework and Penalties - On July 31, the Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration issued a reminder to the accommodation industry, emphasizing the need for transparent pricing and prohibiting unilateral contract cancellations or price increases after booking [3]. - Violations of the pricing regulations can result in fines up to 50,000 yuan for minor infractions, while serious offenses like price fraud can incur fines up to 500,000 yuan, and price gouging can lead to fines up to 3 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration has initiated discussions with major travel platforms to enforce compliance with pricing laws and regulations, aiming to eliminate price irregularities and maintain a fair market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration has called for strict adherence to laws such as the Price Law and Anti-Monopoly Law among travel platforms like Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, and Fliggy [1][3]. - The administration highlighted potential violations including "choose one from two," price manipulation through technology, and price fraud, urging platforms to conduct self-inspections and rectify any issues [3][9]. - Future monitoring will focus on the competitive landscape, with strict penalties for non-compliance, including public exposure of typical cases to deter violations [3][9]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the regulatory discussions, stock prices for Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng have declined, indicating market reaction to the heightened scrutiny [3]. - As of August 6, Meituan's stock price was 121.40 RMB, down 1.22%, with a market capitalization of 1,741.7 billion RMB [4]. - Ctrip's stock price was 485.40 RMB, down 0.74%, with a market capitalization of 346.4 billion RMB [5]. Group 3: Industry Initiatives - The Guizhou Provincial Travel Agency Association and other local associations have launched initiatives to promote fair pricing practices during the summer tourism season [7][8]. - These initiatives emphasize self-regulation among operators, adherence to fair pricing principles, and the elimination of deceptive pricing practices such as "shadow menus" [8][9]. - The Consumer Association has also urged consumers to be vigilant about pricing information when selecting accommodations and dining options [8].

Group 1 - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration held a meeting with five travel platform companies, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, and Fliggy, to enforce compliance with pricing laws and regulations [1] - The meeting addressed potential issues such as "choose one from two," price manipulation through technology, contract breaches, price fraud, and price gouging, urging companies to strengthen self-regulation and compliance [1] - The administration will closely monitor the competitive landscape and take strict legal action against companies that violate regulations or fail to rectify issues [1] Group 2 - On July 31, the Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration issued a reminder to the accommodation industry and third-party platforms to adhere to pricing laws, including clear pricing and prohibiting unilateral contract cancellations [2] - Penalties for violations include fines up to 5,000 yuan for minor infractions, up to 500,000 yuan for price fraud, and up to 3 million yuan for price gouging [2] - The China Tourism Research Institute predicts that domestic tourism during the summer of 2025 may exceed 2.5 billion trips, reaching 115% of 2019 levels, with overall summer consumption expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - As a popular summer travel destination, Guizhou's market supervision authority convened a meeting to standardize tourism pricing, with local industry associations advocating for self-regulation and fair pricing practices [3] - The Guizhou Provincial Tourism Association and other organizations emphasized the need for transparency in pricing and adherence to legal standards to combat issues like temporary price increases and misleading pricing [3] - The Guizhou Consumer Association urged consumers to pay attention to pricing information and for operators to implement clear pricing practices to foster a fair and trustworthy summer tourism environment [3]