永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/10/9 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 3 • 聯儲局9月議息時多數官員稱今年可能適宜繼續寬鬆，投資者憧憬局方減息及美企盈利保持強韌，逢回調吸納科技股， 標指與納指周三創即市及收市歷史新高，標指盤中曾揚0.61%至6755點，收市仍漲0.58%報6753點；納指彈1.12%報 23043點；道指反覆升最多213點，收市轉跌1點；金龍中國指數揚0.87%。輝達及Netflix分別漲2.2%及2%，AMD再 飆11.4%，連續兩日創新高，本周至今累計漲逾43%，費城半導體指數躍高3.4%創新高。 • 聯儲局9月議息紀錄顯示，多數官員稱今年 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights concerns about the U.S. labor market, indicating that employment faces downward risks, which could negatively impact the economic outlook [2] - Despite a surge in investments driven by the AI boom, hiring activities have nearly stalled, threatening the vital interaction between employment and consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy [2][3] - The trade war has led to the highest level of comprehensive import tariffs since the Great Depression, with U.S. importers paying $350 billion annually in tariffs, which is more than double the estimated scale of recent corporate tax cuts [2] Group 2 - Public spending and contract cuts are resulting in layoffs across federal, state, local governments, and healthcare sectors, with the impact not yet fully reflected in overall unemployment data [3] - The average number of new jobs added over the past three months has dropped significantly, from 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000, while the unemployment rate has only slightly increased from 4.2% to 4.3% [3] - The education sector is facing a hiring downturn, with estimated job reductions exceeding 200,000 due to over a 50% cut in spending by the U.S. Department of Education [3] Group 3 - The expansion of immigration raids has created a "chilling effect," causing workers to hesitate in attending work, which raises alarms among farmers and builders about potential economic growth costs [4] - The high tariffs and ongoing trade turmoil have led to a realization that tariffs may become a long-term policy norm, with the index measuring job openings versus layoffs falling into contraction territory [4] - The optimistic stock market sentiment contrasts sharply with the bleak assessment of the labor market, suggesting that ongoing hiring reductions to protect profit margins may render current earnings growth forecasts for S&P 500 companies overly optimistic [4]

Group 1 - Shanghai Green捷 Company is under investigation for allegedly concealing food safety information related to shrimp dishes supplied to schools, leading to a police investigation and the detention of relevant personnel [3] - Avita Technology plans to submit its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Q4 2023, with a target to complete the listing by Q2 2024 [5] - Jaguar Land Rover has extended its production halt until October 1, 2025, due to a cybersecurity incident [11] Group 2 - New Stone Technology has delivered its 10,000th autonomous vehicle, marking a significant milestone in the scale application of autonomous delivery [9] - BOSS Zhipin has banned 2,000 accounts for violations related to sexual harassment and inappropriate job postings from June to August [11] - The Shanghai Disney Resort plans to expand its "Soaring Over the Horizon" attraction, increasing its visitor capacity by approximately 50% [18] Group 3 - The top ten SUV manufacturers in China sold 6.488 million units from January to August 2025, accounting for 66.8% of total SUV sales, with Tesla experiencing a decline in sales compared to the previous year [25] - The pre-sale box office for new films during the 2025 National Day holiday has surpassed 5 million, with "Assassination Novelist 2," "Life of Langlang," and "Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" leading the pre-sale rankings [27] - The autonomous vehicle sector is seeing significant investment, with companies like Reexen Technology and AESC completing substantial funding rounds to enhance their technological capabilities [19][20]

Group 1 - The total market value of Nvidia approaches $4.5 trillion following a significant investment commitment of up to $100 billion from Nvidia to OpenAI, marking Nvidia's largest investment to date [15][16] - The stock price of Nvidia surged nearly 4%, reaching a historical high due to the positive news surrounding the partnership with OpenAI [15] - OpenAI is reportedly seeking to lease rather than purchase Nvidia's AI chips as part of their collaboration [16] Group 2 - The Shanghai Green捷 company is under investigation for allegedly concealing food safety information, with relevant personnel being controlled by law enforcement [5][6] - The company has publicly apologized to affected students and parents and is cooperating with authorities [6] - The incident involved the discovery of insects in shrimp delivered to a school, leading to a cover-up regarding the true nature of the issue [5] Group 3 - BOSS Zhipin has banned 2,000 accounts as part of a crackdown on inappropriate job postings and sexual harassment in recruitment [3] - The platform has initiated a reporting mechanism for companies involved in serious violations, ensuring accountability [3] Group 4 - McDonald's China plans to invest over 400 million yuan in talent training and development over the next three years, focusing on upgrading its Hamburger University [17] - The initiative aims to incorporate AI tools and personalized learning paths to enhance training for nearly 10,000 trainees [17] Group 5 - Xiaomi's new series, the Xiaomi 17, is fully compatible with the 100W PPS universal charging protocol, marking a significant update in their product line [8] - The company emphasizes the "epic update" of the Xiaomi 17 series, showcasing advancements in charging technology [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in popularity of Yupaodirect, a recruitment platform, driven by its controversial advertising campaign that has sparked both attention and criticism among urban workers [9][12][14]. Company Overview - Yupaodirect, founded in 2017, has quickly risen to become a leading player in the blue-collar recruitment market in China, ranking first in this segment and fourth overall in the online recruitment industry [12][21]. - The company has received significant investment, achieving a valuation of 4 billion yuan [12][13]. - Yupaodirect has invested heavily in advertising, with a reported 4 billion yuan allocated for 2024 alone, totaling 15 billion yuan spent on marketing since its inception [14][15]. Advertising Strategy - The recent advertising campaign featuring a character in blue sportswear has become a viral sensation, although it has also faced backlash from the public for being overly intrusive and annoying [2][7][9]. - The founder, Zhou Feng, acknowledged the campaign's shortcomings and has made adjustments based on public feedback, indicating a willingness to adapt [8][9]. - The campaign has successfully raised brand awareness, but it remains to be seen if it can effectively penetrate the competitive white-collar recruitment market [9][33]. Market Position and Challenges - Yupaodirect aims to expand its reach into the white-collar job market, which is significantly more lucrative than the blue-collar segment, where it currently operates [21][22]. - The company has over 100 million users and has facilitated 446 million job placements, but the majority of advertised positions still cater to blue-collar roles [23][24]. - The recruitment landscape is highly competitive, with established players like Zhaopin and BOSS Zhipin dominating the white-collar space, making it challenging for Yupaodirect to gain traction [31][32]. Future Outlook - Zhou Feng has expressed ambitions to elevate Yupaodirect to a top-tier position in the comprehensive recruitment market, targeting a market valuation of 20-30 billion yuan [22]. - The company is in the early stages of its expansion strategy, and its ability to adapt to market demands and user preferences will be crucial for its success in the white-collar recruitment sector [24][33].

Core Viewpoint - The company is heavily investing 1.5 billion in advertising to penetrate the white-collar recruitment market, despite its established presence in the blue-collar job sector [1] Group 1 - The company is utilizing various advertising channels, including subway elevators and community entrances, to promote its brand through founder Zhou Feng's playful imagery [1] - The significant investment of 1.5 billion in promotional expenses raises questions about the effectiveness of this strategy in breaking the "blue-collar recruitment" label [1] - The company's attempt to transition into the white-collar recruitment market indicates a strategic shift aimed at diversifying its target audience [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for FY 2025 was $165.2 million, down 22% from the prior year [17] - Net loss after tax was €2.9 million, an improvement from a €10 million loss in the previous year [17] - Operating expenses were reduced by £6 million through property consolidation and resizing support teams [18] - No dividend was declared for the year ending March 31, 2025, reflecting a prudent approach due to uncertain economic conditions [17][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AWF delivered improved profitability year on year despite a challenging environment, focusing on efficiency and quality business [22] - Madison strengthened its position in mid-senior recruitments and launched a new health channel, securing a place on key panels [22][23] - Jackson Stone and Wellington were significantly impacted by government spending reductions, affecting permanent and contract hires [24] - Absolute IT faced the hardest hit nationally but retained key capabilities [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unemployment rates reached 5.1%, a 53% increase over two years, reflecting a seismic shift in the labor market [26] - The labor market participation rate decreased, indicating potential underreporting of unemployment figures [28] - ANZ's business outlook showed a dip in employment intentions, indicating nervousness in hiring across sectors [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on high-value roles and longer-term contingent workforce solutions to provide clients with necessary flexibility [32] - There is a strategic emphasis on sectors with greater long-term robustness, such as infrastructure and health [21] - The company aims to leverage its scale as New Zealand's largest recruitment business to capture more opportunities [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the prolonged and challenging trading cycle but emphasized a positive leadership approach [15] - The focus remains on financial sustainability, recovery, and growth, with expectations for better performance in FY 2026 and stronger in FY 2027 [26][50] - Management is preparing for an eventual economic rebound, despite current market instability [30][47] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on extending banking facilities with ASB to support growth and reduce interest costs [19] - There is a commitment to maintaining a strong banking relationship and avoiding delinquent debt [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about capital requirements and company debt - A shareholder expressed concerns about the company's capital needs and suggested that additional capital could help address current challenges [72][74] - Management acknowledged the importance of retaining quality staff and emphasized that the company does not need to be capital-intensive [86][90] Question: Impact of AI on recruitment processes - A shareholder inquired about how AI might fine-tune recruitment processes and improve operational efficiency [96] - Management discussed ongoing digitization efforts and the integration of AI to enhance recruitment capabilities while maintaining the human touch [45][46]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower on August 21, with the Dow Jones down 0.21%, S&P 500 down 0.19%, and Nasdaq down 0.16% as of 23:25 [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Walmart's latest earnings report falling short of expectations, leading to a stock price drop of over 5% [2] - Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 1.43% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stock movements included BOSS Zhipin rising over 8%, NIO and Miniso up over 7%, while Bilibili fell nearly 7% and Pony.ai dropped over 3% [5] - Xpeng Motors saw a significant increase of over 13% after its chairman and CEO, He Xiaopeng, purchased 3.1 million shares at an average price of HKD 80.49 per share, raising his ownership to approximately 18.9% [7] - Xpeng Motors reported a record high quarterly revenue of RMB 18.27 billion for Q2 2025, marking a 125.3% increase year-over-year and a 15.6% increase from Q1 2025 [7] Economic Events - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a significant annual event for the financial sector, took place from August 21 to 23, focusing on the transformation of the labor market and macroeconomic policy [9] - Investors are particularly attentive to potential key statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as past meetings have led to significant market movements [10] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29-30 revealed a divide between hawkish and dovish members, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation risks [12] - The outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy remains uncertain, with potential for a rate cut in September if upcoming employment and inflation data do not show significant improvement [12] - Powell's cautious stance on inflation during the July meeting and the upcoming Jackson Hole speech are critical for market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions [13][15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group like-for-like net fees decreased by 11% to £972 million, with pre-exceptional operating profit down 56% to £45.6 million [6][15][29] - Cash from operations increased by 14% to £128.3 million, ending the year with a cash position of £37 million [15][25] - Pre-exceptional earnings per share decreased by 67% to 1.31p, driven by lower operating profit and higher finance charges [16][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Temporary and contracting fees decreased by 7%, while permanent fees decreased by 17% [6][17] - Consultant net fee productivity increased by 5%, with enterprise solutions net fees growing by 8% [7][33] - In Germany, like-for-like net fees declined by 10%, while the UK and Ireland saw a 15% decline [8][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market showed strong performance with a 38% increase in net fee productivity [12][34] - In Rest of World, like-for-like net fees declined by 8%, with the US delivering strong growth [12][13] - Italy, Poland, and Spain reported positive growth in net fees, with Italy growing by 29% [40][41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a five-lever strategy to increase exposure to high-potential markets and improve operational resilience [4][32] - Plans to deliver an additional £45 million in structural cost savings by FY 2029, building on previous savings [21][42] - Continued investment in technology and data to enhance productivity and client service [43][44] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing economic and political uncertainty affecting business confidence and recruitment markets [3][47] - The company expects to see improved performance in EMEA, particularly in France, but recovery timelines are uncertain [62][63] - Current trading in July and August is in line with expectations, with no significant changes in trading momentum [30][31] Other Important Information - The company has restructured its operations, closing offices and reducing headcount to improve profitability [22][29] - A full pension buy-in has been completed, significantly reducing future cash flow requirements related to pension contributions [27][70] - The final dividend proposed is 0.29p per share, reflecting a cautious approach to capital allocation amid uncertain trading conditions [28][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx spend for fiscal 2026 - The increase in CapEx is driven by technology investments and is expected to continue at a higher level over the next few years [53][54] Question: Job flow and conversion metrics - Currently, there is a 25% drop in placements, but pricing improvements are helping to mitigate this decline [56] Question: Expected performance improvement in EMEA - Recovery in EMEA is anticipated, but the timeline for profitability is uncertain, particularly in France [62][63] Question: Cash performance and expectations for FY 2026 - Cash performance was strong in FY 2025, but restructuring costs and increased CapEx may impact cash levels in FY 2026 [66][70] Question: Cost-saving program details - The company aims to achieve £45 million in additional structural cost savings, with significant progress expected in the next twelve months [76][78] Question: Temp and contracting business capacity - The company is satisfied with current consultant headcount levels but is shifting resources within countries to optimize productivity [81]

Core Insights - The acquisition of "Jigongjia" by Yupaodirect was completed smoothly within two months, with both teams aligning strategically, particularly in technology integration and market complementarity [1] - Yupaodirect's founder, Zhou Feng, outlined a clear "three-step" strategy for post-acquisition integration: short-term independent operation, mid-term technology integration, and long-term ecosystem integration [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition process took two months from initial contact to completion of business registration changes [1] - "Jigongjia" is owned by Chengdu Jizhi Life Technology Co., Ltd., which was established in 2014 and focuses on efficiently matching laborers with employers using big data and intelligent analysis [1] Group 2: Strategic Plans - The short-term plan involves maintaining the "Jigongjia" brand and team while focusing on niche market scenarios to retain user trust [1] - The mid-term plan includes integrating "Jigongjia's" AI matching algorithm into Yupaodirect's system to enhance job matching accuracy across 127 parameters [1] - The long-term vision aims to create a closed-loop system for recruitment, insurance, and payroll management by integrating labor data with value-added services [1] Group 3: Market Position - Yupaodirect has over 110 million registered users and more than 4 million daily active users, making it the leading player in China's blue-collar recruitment market and among the top four comprehensive recruitment platforms [3] - The company employs a differentiated strategy of "blue-collar breakout + white-collar penetration," reshaping the recruitment industry landscape compared to traditional giants like BOSS Zhipin and Zhilian Recruitment [3]