量化大势研判 202603 3 月核心推荐预期成长风格 glmszqdatemark 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 叶尔乐 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差变化不大，继续核心推荐预 期成长风格，景气类成长有待财报验证。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组 的上升，高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 同样扩张但变化不大，景气类策略 虽缺乏基本面动量优势，看后续财报披露下是否会再次开启上升趋势。 ROE 的优势差回升但幅度走弱，拥挤度较低下，可挑选 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

Group 1 - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) forecasts that the growth of chemical production and industrial sectors in the U.S. will remain weak until 2026, with a projected increase of only 0.7% in 2025 and a further decline to 0.3% in 2026 [1] - Economic uncertainties have eased somewhat, but factors such as trade fluctuations and high interest rates continue to pose constraints. The growth momentum in the manufacturing sector is expected to wane due to changes in tariff policies and high customer inventory levels [1] - A recovery turning point is anticipated in mid-2026, with a gradual recovery process in the second half of the year supported by industrial capacity expansion plans and the lagging effects of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The performance of sub-markets is notably divergent, with specialty chemicals benefiting from an 8.4% growth in the coatings category, leading to an overall increase of 4.3% in 2025, although a decline of 0.2% is expected in 2026 [1] - Basic chemicals are projected to see a slight increase of 0.1% in 2025, while inorganic chemicals and plastic resin production declines offset some growth. A rebound to 1.2% growth is expected in 2026, despite a downturn in synthetic rubber and artificial fiber production [1] - Agricultural chemicals and consumer chemicals remain under pressure, with expected declines of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively in 2026, following a 2.7% increase in agricultural chemical production and a 2.2% decrease in consumer chemical production in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The end-use market shows mixed performance, with 11 out of 20 tracked markets experiencing a decline in consumption. The apparel sector sees a drop of 3%, while the semiconductor and electronics sectors lead with a 12% increase [2] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a core growth driver, boosting U.S. corporate investment growth to 4.1% in 2025, which directly stimulates demand for chemical-related products such as semiconductor materials and data center cooling systems [2] - However, non-AI sectors are affected by high interest rates and rising raw material prices, leading to a reduction in investment plans, with corporate investment growth expected to fall to 2.6% in 2026 [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Yijie Energy Cleaning Agent Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 30,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the cleaning and hygiene products market [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Song Yilei [1] - The company is involved in a wide range of business activities including the sale of disinfectants, personal hygiene products, and medical supplies [1] - The company is also engaged in domestic trade agency, internet sales, and various technical services [1] Business Scope - General business activities include sales of disinfectants (excluding hazardous chemicals), sanitary products, disposable medical supplies, personal hygiene products, and daily necessities [1] - The company is authorized to conduct internet information services for medical devices and sales of certain classes of radiation devices and sources, subject to regulatory approval [1] - The company’s operations cover a diverse range of products including daily masks, food packaging, rubber products, home appliances, and electronic products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Aicui Aromatherapy Industry Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB, focusing on daily miscellaneous goods sales and various related services [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the newly established company is Liu Wenzhi [1] - The company’s business scope includes general projects such as daily miscellaneous goods sales, cosmetics retail and wholesale, personal hygiene products sales, daily chemical products sales, and daily goods sales [1] - The company also offers information consulting services (excluding licensed consulting services) and various technical services including development, consultation, exchange, transfer, and promotion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.238 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 266 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.28% and 1.98% respectively. However, the third quarter saw a revenue of 342 million yuan, with a net profit decline of 2.89% year-on-year [1][3]. - The increase in sales expense ratio has put pressure on Q3 performance, but the upcoming autumn and winter peak season, along with new product categories, are expected to drive growth [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.3%, which remained stable year-on-year. The net profit margin for the same period was 21.5%, down by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.556 billion yuan, 1.891 billion yuan, and 2.301 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 21.6%, and 21.7% [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 310 million yuan, 383 million yuan, and 468 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.3%, 23.6%, and 22.1% respectively [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic mosquito repellent and infant personal care sectors, with a strong brand presence and an integrated research, production, and sales model that creates a competitive edge [7]. - The introduction of new product lines, particularly in the youth skincare segment, is anticipated to contribute to future growth, alongside the expansion of offline channels [7][8].

Core Insights - Yushuyuanjie Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The company is engaged in various business activities including the manufacturing and sales of daily chemical products, knitted or crocheted goods, and arts and crafts [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Dai Jicuo [1] - The registered capital is 1 million RMB [1] - The business scope includes general projects such as daily chemical product manufacturing and sales, arts and crafts manufacturing, and industrial design services [1] Business Activities - The company will manufacture daily chemical products and sell them [1] - It will also engage in the manufacturing and sales of knitted or crocheted goods and arts and crafts products, excluding ivory and its products [1] - Additional services include internet sales (excluding items requiring permits), conference and exhibition services, and cultural creation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price of 47.75 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned for long-term recovery through its brand matrix and R&D innovations, despite facing short-term performance pressures due to market conditions and strategic adjustments [8]. - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance as it enhances its brand matrix, R&D barriers, and channel development, particularly with the growth of its new brands and improved online member repurchase rates [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5,736 million, 5,406 million, 5,952 million, and 6,655 million respectively, with growth rates of 3.9%, -5.8%, 10.1%, and 11.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 503 million, 547 million, 642 million, and 777 million for the same years, with growth rates of -33.5%, 8.7%, 17.4%, and 21.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 1.19, 1.29, 1.51, and 1.83 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Online channel revenue is expected to show resilience, with a projected income of 17.43 billion, despite a year-on-year decline of 6%. The company has seen growth in emerging content e-commerce platforms [8]. - Offline channel revenue is projected to decline significantly, with an expected income of 4.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 42% [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing member operations to improve profitability. Key strategies include streamlining SKUs, focusing on core products, and implementing differentiated member tier operations [8]. - The company is expanding its multi-brand matrix and entering new market segments, such as high-end anti-aging and infant care, to create additional growth avenues [8].

Core Viewpoint - A new individual business, Liyuan Detergent Factory, has been established in Yuzhou District, Yulin City, with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB, focusing on the manufacturing and sales of daily chemical products [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The legal representative of Liyuan Detergent Factory is Huang Jiyuan [1] - The registered capital of the company is 100,000 RMB [1] Group 2: Business Scope - The factory's business scope includes the manufacturing and sales of daily chemical products [1] - It also engages in the sales of specialized chemical products (excluding hazardous chemicals) [1] - The company provides various technical services, including development, consulting, communication, transfer, and promotion, as long as they do not require special approval [1]