1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase beyond expectations this year, while ginneries have average enthusiasm for purchasing, and large - scale rush purchases are not expected. Some market expectations put the purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season this year is expected to be mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [8]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. For arbitrage and options, it is advised to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices decreased, with CF01 closing at 13350, down 55; for棉纱 futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), CY01 closed at 19485, down 65. Trading volumes and open interest also changed. For example, the trading volume of CF01 was 245,440, an increase of 49234, and the open interest was 530,559, a decrease of 4260 [3]. - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 14953 yuan/ton, down 90; the Cot A price was 0.00 cents/pound, down 77.70. The prices of other spot products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.1.2 Spreads - Cotton inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 10, down 10; the spread between May and September was - 170, up 10. - Cotton - yarn inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 90, down 19640. - Cross - variety spreads: The spread between CY01 and CF01 was 6135, down 10. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1092, down 48 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of September 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 311,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. However, due to the early harvest of dry - land cotton and concentrated precipitation in July and August, the quantity and quality of later - listed cotton may be affected [6]. - As of September 27, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.999 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. The planting areas in major producing areas such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased [7]. - The pre - sale quotes of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted polluted double - 29 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang with impurities within 3.5 was around CF01 + 1100, with higher quotes ranging from 1200 to 1300, for delivery before mid - October [7]. 3.2.2 Cotton Trading Logic - With new cotton gradually entering the acquisition stage, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton output and the average enthusiasm of ginneries for purchasing lead to the expectation of no large - scale rush purchases. The expected purchase price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the peak season is expected to be mediocre [8]. 3.2.3 Cotton Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [9]. 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - Over the weekend, the trading atmosphere in the pure cotton - yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Cotton - yarn prices remained stable. As the decline in cotton prices was greater than that in yarn prices, the cash flow of enterprises improved. The peak season in September was mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years, and market confidence was insufficient. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market in September, both volume and price lacked peak - season characteristics. Orders for grey fabric factories were average, with thick - type fabrics being the main products in production. Conventional and high - count orders were few. Export orders were average, with intense competition and extremely low profit margins [11]. 3.3 Options - The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 13.1%, and its price decreased by 33.6%. The implied volatility of CF601P13600.CZC was 12%, and its price increased by 5.7%. The implied volatility of CF601P13400.CZC was 12.3%, and its price increased by 5.1%. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7310, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7294. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [14][15]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the domestic - foreign cotton spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 and CF05, the spread between CY01 and CF01, and the spreads between different delivery months of cotton futures [18][25][26].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term cotton market is likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. Future issuance of sliding - duty quotas will be a major influencing factor on the supply side, and the shift from the off - season to the peak season in August will affect demand. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. - The U.S. cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term, but with limited upward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CY05 contracts increased, while CF09, CY09 decreased, and CY01 had a small increase. For volume, most contracts showed a decrease. In terms of open interest, most also decreased. For cotton yarn futures, similar trends were observed in terms of price, volume, and open interest changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 143 yuan/ton, Cot A increased by 0.50 cents/pound, and the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton. Other spot prices remained stable or decreased slightly [3]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and cotton yarn inter - delivery spreads, there were different changes in spreads between different delivery months. In cross - variety spreads, the CY - CF spreads also changed, and the internal - external spreads of cotton and yarn also had corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - By the week ending August 30, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 72.8%, 12.5 percentage points higher than the previous week but 14.8% slower than the same period last year. The progress in major producing states was slow, but sunny weather in Mato Grosso is expected to speed up the harvest [6]. - As of the week ending September 1, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%. The cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5%. The final market volume is expected to be around 5.2 - 5.22 million tons [6]. - Pakistan's cotton imports in the 2024 - 2025 season increased from 683,000 tons to 814,000 tons, and the year - on - year growth rate increased from 233% to 298% [7]. - The total amount of sliding - duty processing trade quotas for cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons, and they will be issued based on contracts [7]. - **Trading Logic**: After the Sino - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. On the supply side, whether additional sliding - duty quotas will be issued is the main influencing factor. On the demand side, demand is expected to improve in August as it shifts from the off - season to the peak season. If demand is weaker than expected, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: The U.S. cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term with limited upward space [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, the market sentiment is cautious, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The price of pure - cotton yarn is expected to be stable [12]. - The trading volume in the all - cotton grey fabric market has not recovered as well as in previous years. Mills reported limited order increases, especially in foreign orders. It is difficult to raise the price of grey fabrics, and mills mostly choose to wait and see. If the raw material price continues to rise, mills may try to raise prices [12]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Data**: On September 2, 2025, for options such as CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC, there were different changes in closing prices, implied volatilities, and other indicators [14]. - **Volatility**: The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were around 11.3% - 11.6% [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed certain values, and the trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [15][16]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of different delivery months of cotton, the spread between cotton yarn and cotton futures, and the inter - delivery spreads of cotton futures, showing the historical trends of relevant data [17][23][25][30]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 14070, 14025, and 13690 respectively, with changes of -5, -5, and -70. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 20090, 20350, and 20240 respectively, with changes of -5, 0, and 35 [3]. - The CCIndex3128B price was 15336 yuan/ton, up 2; Cot A was 78.20 cents/pound, down 0.70; (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.95, down 0.62; polyester staple fiber was 7450, up 70; viscose staple fiber was 12900, unchanged [3]. - The CY IndexC32S price was 20760, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21865, down 32; Indian S - 6 was 55800, unchanged; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month cotton spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - month to 9 - month was 335, up 65; 9 - month to 1 - month was - 380, down 65. The 1 - month to 5 - month棉纱 spread was - 260, down 20355; 5 - month to 9 - month was 110, up 20315; 9 - month to 1 - month was 150, up 40 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6020, unchanged; CY05 - CF05 was 6325, up 20355; CY09 - CF09 was 6550, up 105. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1439, down 6; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 788, down 6; the internal - external yarn spread was - 1105, up 32 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 64.6mm, 18.1mm higher than normal and 66.7mm lower than last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 27 was 705.6mm, 78.8mm higher than normal. The cotton growth was good, but there were reports of bollworm disasters in Andhra Pradesh [6]. - As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's (98%) cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 15.8% slower than last year, mainly due to delayed planting in Mato Grosso [6]. - India temporarily waived cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30, 2025, and extended the exemption to December 31, 2025 [6]. - In 2025, the total quota for cotton import under the sliding - scale tariff for processing trade was 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application [7]. Trading Logic - After the Sino - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, reducing short - term tariff impacts. China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. The cotton supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs will be a key factor. Demand is expected to improve from August as it shifts from the off - season to the peak season. If demand is lower than expected, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, the market is likely to be slightly bullish [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of pure - cotton greige fabric was stable, with limited real - order transactions and a lukewarm market. Weaving mills' shipments improved slightly, and they were not fully optimistic about the September peak season [12]. - The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased compared to the previous period, but overall transactions were okay. Spinning mills sold at market prices. Some spinning mills resumed production, increasing the operating rate. There are concerns about large - scale spinning mills' low - price promotions in early September, and yarn prices are expected to be stable in the short term [12]. Group 3: Options - On August 28, 2025, for the CF601C14000.CZC option, the closing price was 356.00, down 4.6%, with an implied volatility (IV) of 10.8%. For the CF601P13600.CZC option, the closing price was 122.00, up 15.1%, with an IV of 10.2%. For the CF601P13400.CZC option, the closing price was 82.00, up 30.2%, with an IV of 10.6% [13]. - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7774, and the PCR of the trading volume was 0.5211. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased [14]. - Options strategy: Wait and see [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market利多 factors for Zhengzhou cotton (郑棉) are relatively clear. It is expected that the downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it will probably maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in oscillation, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 14100 with a decline of 25, CF05 at 14080 with a decline of 5, and CF09 at 13820 with a decline of 10. For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20140 with a decline of 25, CY05 at 20330 with no change, and CY09 at 20095 with a decline of 25. Volume and open - interest changes varied among contracts [3]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was priced at 15243 yuan/ton with an increase of 27, Cot A at 79.15 cents/pound with a decline of 0.25. Different yarn and fiber products also had their respective price changes [3]. - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 20 with a decline of 20, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6040 with no change [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 97%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 4 percentage points faster than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points slower than last year and 7 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6]. - As of the week ending August 16, the total harvesting progress of Brazilian cotton was 48.9%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous week but 16.3% slower than last year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 3.935 million tons [6][7]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroscopically, after the China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, weakening the short - term tariff impact. The domestic anti - involution policy has a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and the key factor for supply is whether additional sliding - scale tariff quotas will be issued. In August, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly stronger in oscillation, and Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Options**: Sell put options [11]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The Zhengzhou cotton market has been oscillating recently. The overall market of pure - cotton yarn has improved but is still mediocre. There is resistance to price increases, and market confidence is average. Spinning mills focus on sales, with inland spinning mills operating at low capacity, stable overall operation, and slightly reduced inventory [13]. - The overall demand for all - cotton gray fabrics has not been fully released. Although some report an improvement compared to July, most fabric mills say sales are still slow, with few actual orders. The production enthusiasm of some local fabric mills has slightly recovered, and the operating rate has increased, but it is expected to be difficult to further recover [13]. Options - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 10.2%, CF601P13600.CZC was 10.3%, and CF601P13400.CZC was 10.3%. The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7849, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7600. Both the trading volumes of call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [16][17].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13865 with a 45-point increase, CF05 at 13835 with a 50-point increase, CF09 at 13990 with a 140-point increase, CY01 at 20135 with a 100-point increase, CY05 at 20060 with a 45-point increase, and CY09 at 20180 with a 130-point increase [3]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 15272 yuan/ton with a 23-yuan decrease, Cot A was 78.75 cents/pound with a 0.70-cent increase, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3]. - Price differences: Cotton and棉纱 had various inter - period and cross - variety price differences, such as the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread being 30 with a 5 - point decrease [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - US cotton: As of the week of July 12, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 82.81°F, 0.12°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 1.22 inches, 0.16 inches higher than the same period last year [6]. - Indian cotton: As of July 11, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 9.283 million hectares, 239,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. As of the week of July 13, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 133,000 tons, a 316% year - on - year increase [6][7]. Trading Logic - US cotton: It was slightly weak in the short term but had potential positive factors due to possible trade negotiations and the weather trading peak [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton: The upward space might be relatively limited considering factors such as downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. - Options: Sell put options [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The cotton fabric market was cold, with manufacturers having small - order shipments, and weavers reducing production and taking holidays. Spinning mills' cash - flow losses were not significantly improved, and downstream procurement was mainly on a need - to - buy basis [11][13]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For example, on July 16, 2025, the CF509C14000.CZC option had a closing price of 188 with a 9.2% decrease [14]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 4.4970, and the implied volatilities of some options were given [14]. - Option strategy: Sell put options, and the market's bearish sentiment was alleviated [15][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, favorable weather has led to an increase in the good - quality rate of US cotton, limiting its rebound. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang poses a high risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors, and there are tariff - related macro - factor risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price: 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,965 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 23,665 hands, down 570 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 72 hands, up 21 hands. Cotton main contract positions: 543,248 hands, down 617 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions: 22,992 hands, down 574 hands. Cotton warehouse receipts: 9,971 sheets, down 68 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 sheets, unchanged. China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty): 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,811 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,227 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. Imported cotton profit: 754 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey cloth inventory days: 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 0.036 million tons. Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1,357,773,700 US dollars, up 197,117,900 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1,263,177,300 US dollars, up 5,210,900 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option: 9.06%, up 0.21%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option: 9.06%, up 0.21%. 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.11%, down 0.84%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 10.08%, down 0.79% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 14% (9% last week, 18% in the same period last year, 15% as the five - year average), the budding rate was 48% (40% last week, 51% in the same period last year, 49% as the five - year average), and the good - quality rate was 52% (51% last week, 45% in the same period last year) [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report, July 2, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,820 with a gain of 65, trading volume of 53,324 (up 7,010), and open interest of 193,529 (up 2,882) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 945 (down 342), and open interest of 8,232 (up 222) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 182,581 (down 6,222), and open interest of 560,465 (down 2,771) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085 with a loss of 75, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 79 (unchanged) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20,090 with a gain of 40, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 2 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20,075 with a gain of 30, trading volume of 7,387 (up 52), and open interest of 22,405 (up 382) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,163 yuan/ton, up 9 [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.90 cents/pound, down 1.25 [3] - FC Index:M: CIF was priced at 77.44, down 1.08 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 15 (up 5), 5 - 9 spread was 0 (unchanged), 9 - 1 spread was - 15 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 5 (down 115), 5 - 9 spread was 15 (up 10), 9 - 1 spread was - 10 (up 105) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,265 (down 140), CY05 - CF05 was 6,285 (down 20), CY09 - CF09 was 6,270 (down 30) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 1,221 (up 169), sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was 582 (up 96), domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,505 (down 663) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 23, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 5.466 million hectares, 531,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, with a planting target of 12.95 million hectares [6] - CAI's latest report shows that as of May 31, 2025, compared with last month's assessment, India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet had an output increase of 170,000 tons, import increase of 100,000 tons, demand decrease of 30,000 tons, export increase of 30,000 tons, and ending inventory increase of 270,000 tons [6] - As of June 29, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 95%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the squaring rate was 40%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 3 percentage points faster than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 9%, the same as last year and the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 51%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 4 percentage points higher than the five - year average [7] Trading Logic - Macro - level uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices. If the US eases its attitude towards China, it may be bullish for cotton prices [8] - On the cotton fundamentals side, China's current low commercial cotton inventory may lead to a supply - tight situation before the new cotton harvest if the current de - stocking rate continues, which could make cotton prices oscillate slightly stronger [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure - cotton yarn market remains weak, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude due to large cotton price fluctuations. Spinning mills are suffering losses, inventory is accumulating, and production cuts are increasing. Short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable or slightly decline [11] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is in the off - season, with small domestic orders. Weaving mills lack confidence in price increases, and the market is expected to remain weak in July [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On July 2, 2025, the CF509C13800.CZC option had a closing price of 198, a gain of 88.6%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and other relevant option Greeks [14] - The CF509P13600.CZC option had a closing price of 103, a loss of 34.8%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and relevant Greeks [14] - The CF509P13000.CZC option had a closing price of 21, a loss of 81.6%, an implied volatility of 12.3%, and relevant Greeks [14] Volatility and Strategy - The 30 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9445, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5684, with both call and put trading volumes decreasing. The option strategy is to sell put options [14][15][16] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes graphs such as the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads [16][20][21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]