橡胶做多赔率较好 橡胶月报 2025/10/10 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 ◆ 20250829 中期仍然看多。未来7-14天泰国暴雨山洪风险增加，降雨量大，供应利多。 ◆ 20250906 中期仍然看多。未来3-14天泰国暴雨山洪风险增加，降雨量大，供应利多。(走势不及预期)。 ◆ 20250913 中期仍然看多。在早评中择机提示回调做多的机会。 ◆ 20250916-20250919,连续4个交易日早评提示降雨量预报边际降低，利多边际减弱风险。 ◆ 20251009 整体利空释放比较充分。后续跟踪宏观动态和天气动态成为重要的价格驱动因素。 ◆ 胶价整体偏低，做多赔率好，胶价上涨空间也不错，如果有上涨事件驱动，胶价反弹的概率比较大。 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 泰国降雨量动态 ◆ 20250704月报中，我们重点指出：反内卷政策影响巨大，判断构成非常重要的宏观利多。 ◆ 我们观察，当下环境和商品价格和 ...

通用股份公告，拟面向专业投资者非公开发行公司债券，规模不超过10亿元。此次非公开发行的公司债 券面值为100元，按面值平价发行，期限不超过10年。债券票面利率将不超过国务院或其他有权机构限 定的水平。募集资金将用于偿还有息债务、补充流动资金及项目建设等。此发行方案已获得公司董事会 批准，尚需提交股东会审议通过。公司计划通过此次发行拓宽融资渠道并降低融资成本。 ...

【导读】累计虚增利润6.58亿元，美晨科技将被处罚；公司股票将于9月29日开市起停牌1天，并自9月 30日被实施其他风险警示 见习记者 夏天 9月26日晚间，美晨科技（证券代码：300237）公告称，公司及相关当事人近日收到山东证监局下发的 《行政处罚事先告知书》。因2014年至2018年年度报告存在虚假记载——累计虚增收入14.38亿元、累 计虚增利润6.58亿元，公司及相关责任人将面临警告、罚款及市场禁入的处罚。 同时，因美晨科技2014年至2018年年度报告存在虚假记载，根据深交所相关规定，公司股票将于9月29 日开市起停牌1天，并自9月30日被实施其他风险警示，股票简称由"美晨科技"变更为"ST美晨"。 年度报告存在虚假记载 公司及相关责任人被罚 美晨科技曾在3月31日公告称，公司收到中国证监会下发的立案告知书，因公司涉嫌信息披露违法违 规，中国证监会决定对公司立案调查。 经过近半年的调查，山东证监局查明，美晨科技涉嫌违法的事实如下： 2014年9月，美晨科技以发行股份购买资产方式收购郭柏峰等持有的杭州赛石园林集团有限公司（以下 简称赛石园林）股权，赛石园林自此成为美晨科技全资子公司。2014年至20 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，东莞雅境制造有限公司成立，注册资本100万人民币，经营范围为一般项目： 五金产品制造；五金产品研发；五金产品批发；五金产品零售；金属结构制造；金属制品研发；金属制 品销售；橡胶制品制造；橡胶制品销售；海绵制品制造；海绵制品销售；塑料制品制造；塑料制品销 售；汽车装饰用品制造；汽车装饰用品销售；电子产品销售；智能车载设备销售；汽车零配件批发；汽 车零配件零售；移动通信设备销售；家用电器销售；家用电器零配件销售；照相机及器材销售；照明器 具销售；皮革制品制造；皮革制品销售；模具制造；模具销售；办公用品销售；互联网销售（除销售需 要许可的商品）；数字技术服务；办公服务；国内贸易代理；货物进出口；技术进出口。（除依法须经 批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Company Overview - Huizhou Zhuoyue Rubber Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Zhang Meilin [1] Business Scope - The company is engaged in the manufacturing and sales of rubber products, daily miscellaneous goods, home products, and leather products [1] - It also involves the manufacturing and retail of computer hardware and software, electronic products, and office equipment [1] - The company is authorized to conduct import and export activities, as well as domestic trade agency services [1]

【原料及现货】截至9月25日，杯胶51.05（+0.25）泰铢/千克，胶乳54.80（-0.50）泰铢/千克。云南胶水 收购价14300（-200）元/吨，海南民营胶水16000（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1860（0）美元/吨，泰混 14850（0）元/吨。 【逻辑】供应方面，东南亚降雨有缓解趋势，产区集中上量预期偏强，原料价格承压，橡胶成本支撑减 弱。下游轮胎厂节前补库基本完成，天胶现货库存去库节奏有所放缓。需求方面，目前虽部分企业缺货 现象仍存，企业装置运行平稳以补充库存，但整体出货表现不及预期，部分企业库存仍存提升迹象，为 缓解压力，不排除部分企业存灵活控产行为。综上，01合约区间参15000-16500，后续关注主产区旺产 期原料产出情况，若原料上量顺利则区间上沿高空思路，若原料上量不畅预计胶价延续区间内运行。 【操作建议】观望 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 ...

上市公司成为失信被执行人 今年5月，公司公告，因有待执行款项未能如期支付，导致公司因相关纠纷被法院列为失信被执行人。 具体事件可以追溯到2023年6月。当月，公司收到上海市徐汇区人民法院送达的《到期债务履行通知书》。在上海澳银投资管理有限公司（以下简称澳银 投资）与上海鸿孜企业发展有限公司（以下简称上海鸿孜）合同纠纷一案中，澳银投资对公司申请代位追偿，要求公司向上海市徐汇区人民法院履行对上 海鸿孜4221.76万元的到期债务。 案件经过两次审理，今年3月，宏达新材收到法院送达的《执行通知书》，责令公司给付申请执行人澳银投资848.5万元及其他款项。 今年7月，公司再发公告，称收到法院执行裁定，将拍卖公司名下东莞新东方科技有限公司1200万元的股权份额。 | 首次执行 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 案号: (2025) 沪0101执1309号 | | | | 法院:上海市黄浦区人民法院 | | | | 被执行人:上海宏达新材料股份有限公司,黄某 | | | | 2025-02-19 · 被执行人 | 被执行人：上海宏达新材料股份有限公司 | 执行标的: 8,485,000.00元 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Jinpu Titanium Industry (000545.SZ) has failed after nearly three months of progress, leading to increased uncertainty in the company's future development [2][5]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - On September 23, Jinpu Titanium announced the termination of its major asset restructuring due to significant uncertainties arising from recent market changes [2]. - The company had planned to replace part of its assets, including those from Nanjing Titanium and Xuzhou Titanium, with 91% equity of Lide Dongfang held by Jinpu Dongyu [2][3]. - Jinpu Titanium intended to issue shares and pay cash for the remaining 9% equity of Lide Dongfang and to raise funds from no more than 35 specific investors to cover transaction costs and enhance liquidity [3]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - The restructuring was a crucial step for Jinpu Titanium to strategically exit the titanium dioxide industry and shift its main business focus to rubber products, including hoses, seals, and shock absorbers [3]. - The titanium dioxide industry has faced challenges such as overcapacity, high costs, weak demand, and intense low-price competition, which have compressed profit margins [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Jinpu Titanium has experienced significant financial losses, with four out of five years from 2020 to 2024 reporting losses, including a net loss of 1.86 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The company's revenues from 2022 to the first half of 2025 were 2.51 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 921 million yuan, with cumulative net losses reaching 7.5 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - In June 2025, Jinpu Titanium's wholly-owned subsidiary Xuzhou Titanium temporarily halted production for maintenance, but resumed operations on September 9, 2025 [5]. - The controlling shareholder of Jinpu Titanium faces risks related to share pledges and freezes, with 100% of its shares pledged and 62.08% of its shares subject to judicial freezes [5].

今年5月，公司公告，因有待执行款项未能如期支付，导致公司因相关纠纷被法院列为失信被执行人。 9月24日盘后，ST宏达（002211.SZ，股价3.39元，市值14.66亿元，以下简称宏达新材）披露了人事任 免公告，公司董事长、总经理进行了"身份对调"。其中，原董事长黄俊任公司总经理，而原总经理徐国 兴任公司董事长。 值得注意的是，徐国兴除接任董事长外，还将担任公司法定代表人。此前，黄俊在担任公司法定代表人 期间，曾被法院列为"失信被执行人"。此番更替后，公司也将摆脱法定代表人是"失信被执行人"的尴 尬。 值得注意的是，在此次更换董事长及法定代表人前，宏达新材的实控人已从江苏伟伦投资管理有限公司 （以下简称江苏伟伦）变更为上市公司创始人之子朱恩伟，江苏伟伦曾因虚开发票及单位行贿罪被罚 款。 上市公司成为失信被执行人 同年12月，公司收到证监会出具的《行政处罚事先告知书》。公司涉嫌违规事项包括，涉嫌未按照规定 披露实际控制人、涉嫌2019年至2020年年度报告虚增收入及利润、涉嫌2020年年报未计提商誉减值、虚 增利润等。 随后，宏达新材业绩"变脸"，2023年和2024年归母净利润连续亏损。 2025年上半年， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the documents regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash futures markets continued to weaken yesterday. The soda ash market has an oversupply problem, and the inventory has transferred to the mid - downstream. There is no significant increase in downstream demand in the medium term. It is recommended to hold short positions. The glass spot market trading has become dull, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Track policies and the inventory - building performance of mid - downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. Natural Rubber - Future supply increase expectations have weakened raw material prices, and the cost support has changed from strong to weak. The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically completed, and the de - stocking rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. Some enterprises may control production flexibly. Pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on domestic production areas, and the 01 contract range is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season [3]. Logs - The log futures market fluctuated and closed flat. The inventory has decreased significantly, the demand has declined, and the supply is expected to increase. The market is in a volatile pattern. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, pay attention to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market continued to decline. Substantial support policies have not been implemented, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high, and prices are loosening. Follow national policies, the actual production start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market balance is gradually turning to looseness. The expected supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase in the dry season in the southwest has boosted market sentiment. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.28% to 1312, and Glass 2509 decreased by 0.64% to 1389. The 05 basis increased by 9.50% to - 162. Soda ash prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.66% to 1361, and Soda ash 2509 decreased by 1.08% to 1423. The 05 basis increased by 27.38% to - 61 [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 (unit not clear), the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [1]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09% (improved from - 0.19%), the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber remained unchanged at 14,700 yuan/ton, the full - latex basis increased by 9.84% to - 855 yuan/ton, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference increased by 5.23% to - 725 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 150.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 40 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 44.44% to - 25 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons, India's production decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 tons, and China's production decreased by 1.27% to 101.30 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.20% to 73.66%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 0.07% to 65.66%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% to 6,301.00 [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286,639 (unit not clear), the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44,553, the dry - rubber bonded warehouse inbound rate in Qingdao increased to 2.47, and the outbound rate decreased to 6.44 [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2511 remained unchanged at 805 yuan/cubic meter, Log 2601 increased by 0.06% to 819 yuan/cubic meter, and Log 2603 decreased by 0.18% to 823.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot goods remained unchanged [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.115, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.10 to 797.53 [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The inventory in China decreased by 3.31% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.50% to 176.60 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 5.98 million cubic meters, and the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 11% to 3.06 million cubic meters [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type multi - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,650 yuan/ton, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 43.98% to 2,390 yuan/ton [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1.43% to 50,260, the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 127.27% to - 45, and the first - continuous - to - second - continuous spread increased by 5.99% to - 2355 [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons. Monthly: The polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, and the polysilicon export volume increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8500 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.55% to 575, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50.00% to - 25 [7]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.27% to - 400, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 133.33% to 35 [7]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 12.91% to 16.97 tons, and the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 41.19% to 5.81 tons. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%, the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 15.25% to 60.61%, and the Yunnan operating rate increased by 44.09% to 47.39% [7]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.45% to 3.10 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [7].