永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/10/9 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 3 • 聯儲局9月議息時多數官員稱今年可能適宜繼續寬鬆，投資者憧憬局方減息及美企盈利保持強韌，逢回調吸納科技股， 標指與納指周三創即市及收市歷史新高，標指盤中曾揚0.61%至6755點，收市仍漲0.58%報6753點；納指彈1.12%報 23043點；道指反覆升最多213點，收市轉跌1點；金龍中國指數揚0.87%。輝達及Netflix分別漲2.2%及2%，AMD再 飆11.4%，連續兩日創新高，本周至今累計漲逾43%，費城半導體指數躍高3.4%創新高。 • 聯儲局9月議息紀錄顯示，多數官員稱今年 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US inflation remains stable, with the Dow Jones reaching a high of 46,714 points, marking the 28th record close for the S&P 500 this year [9] - The report notes a continuous inflow of capital from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks, increasing from approximately 1,108.8 billion to 1,152.7 billion [9] - The investment strategy favors technology stocks and leading companies with AI application potential [9] - The report recommends structured products linked to AI indices, balancing yield and growth potential [9] - It suggests increasing investments in investment-grade corporate bonds to replace cash and short-term government bonds [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,128.20, down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.89% [14] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakening growth momentum, with GDP expected to decline to around 4.5% in Q3 and further to about 4.3% in the second half of the year [12] - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon in mainland China, where funds are moving from fixed deposits to equity investment products, with only 11% of the total deposits having migrated so far [12] Company Focus - Qingdao Beer Co. reported a net profit of 3.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, driven by margin improvements and product upgrades [19] - BYD has adjusted its sales target downwards but anticipates a new growth phase in production and sales in the coming months [12] - The report highlights PACCAR Inc. as benefiting from a new 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [22] - GlobalFoundries Inc. is expected to benefit from a new regulatory policy encouraging domestic semiconductor production, which may lead to increased local orders and incentives [23]

Core Insights - The report highlights a 100% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [9] - U.S. consumer confidence has declined, with the University of Michigan's September index dropping to 55.4, below the previous month's 58.2 and the expected 58.0 [9][11] - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 182-day term [9] - Investment strategies favor sectors such as smart manufacturing, cloud computing, AI, and medical innovation, which are attracting foreign institutional interest [9] - Recommendations include incorporating new targets into the southbound trading scheme, adjusting weightings, and early positioning [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed the 26,000-point mark, closing at 26,388 points, marking a weekly increase of 970 points or 3.82% [13] - The market anticipates a likely interest rate cut in the U.S., with discussions around whether the cut will be 0.25% or 0.5% [13] - The Hong Kong government's issuance of silver bonds has begun, with a guaranteed interest rate of 3.85%, which remains attractive compared to local deposit rates [13] - China's credit data showed a modest recovery in August, with new loans of 590 billion yuan, reversing a decline from July [13] - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on cross-border RMB financing, aiming to enhance the offshore RMB market [13] Company Focus - Weili Zhibo (9887) is focused on the high-growth biopharmaceutical sector, with a narrowed mid-year loss of 166 million yuan, reflecting improved operational efficiency [20] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692) has successfully expanded its oncology product line in China and launched in the UK, indicating significant future potential [20] - Lenovo Group (992) reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth to 18.83 billion USD, driven by AI strategy and strong cash returns [20] Global Market Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,388.16, up 301.84 points or 1.16% [15] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 273 points or 0.59%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 98.03 points or 0.44% [15] - The S&P 500 Index experienced a slight decline of 3.18 points or 0.05% [15] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases include China's new housing prices for 70 major cities and industrial production figures for August [18] - The unemployment rate in China for August is reported at 5.2% [18] - The U.S. New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index for September is estimated at 4.3 [18]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs, while the Dow Jones remained stable [8][9] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $3680 for the first time [8] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Alphabet's market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion and Tesla's stock rising by 3.6% [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, focusing on income and diversification amid potential risks of market adjustments due to high valuations and policy changes [8] - Investors are encouraged to consider large tech companies that benefit from AI and productivity enhancements [8] Key Economic Data - The report highlights upcoming economic data releases, including US retail sales and industrial production figures, which are crucial for assessing economic health [18] Company Focus - Prudential (2378) reported a 12% year-on-year increase in new business profit, reaching $1.26 billion, driven by strong growth in markets like Hong Kong and Indonesia [19] - BYD (1211) is noted for its high barriers in battery and intelligent driving technology, with several new models expected to launch in the second half of the year [19] ETF and Stock Recommendations - Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) is highlighted for its attractive dividend yield of 6.1%, making it appealing in a low-interest-rate environment [21] - Chevron Corporation (CVX) is recommended for its focus on high-return projects and strong free cash flow growth, ensuring dividend and buyback sustainability [22] - iShares International Select Dividend ETF (IDV) is noted for its focus on dividend-paying companies outside the US, contributing to a balanced investment portfolio [23]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 301 points or 1.2% to close at 26,388 points, the China Enterprises Index up 104 points or 1.1% to close at 9,364 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 100 points or 1.7% to close at 5,989 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$320.734 billion [1]. - The A - share market had a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4 points or 0.1% to close at 3,870 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 55 points or 0.4% to close at 12,924 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 33 points or 1% to close at 3,020 points [1]. - The US stock market had a mixed performance on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 273 points or 0.6% to close at 45,834 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 3 points to close at 6,584 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 98 points or 0.4% to close at 22,141 points, hitting a record - high close [2]. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index opened 453 points higher, and its gain expanded to 499 points, reaching a four - year high of 26,585 points. It finally closed up 301 points or 1.2% at 26,388 points. The China Enterprises Index rose 104 points or 1.1% to 9,364 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 100 points or 1.7% to 5,989 points. The total trading volume was HK$320.734 billion [1]. - **A - share Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 4 points or 0.1% at 3,870 points with a trading volume of RMB 1.09 trillion. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 55 points or 0.4% at 12,924 points with a trading volume of nearly RMB 1.43 trillion. The ChiNext Index closed down 33 points or 1% at 3,020 points with a trading volume of RMB 675 billion [1]. - **US Stock Market**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 273 points or 0.6% at 45,834 points. The S&P 500 Index closed down 3 points at 6,584 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 98 points or 0.4% at 22,141 points, a record - high close, driven by Tesla's more than 7% increase [2]. Macroeconomic Data - **People's Bank of China Operations**: On the 12th, the People's Bank of China conducted 230 billion yuan of seven - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with an unchanged operating rate of 1.4%. There were 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 15 points to 7.1019 [1]. - **Social Financing Scale**: In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was RMB 26.56 trillion, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the market expectation of RMB 26.487 trillion [2]. - **Money Supply**: At the end of August, the balance of broad - money (M2) was RMB 331.98 trillion, up 8.8% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 8.6%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was RMB 111.23 trillion, up 6% year - on - year, and the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was RMB 13.34 trillion, up 11.7% year - on - year. In the first eight months, the net cash injection was RMB 520.8 billion [3]. - **Foreign Exchange Fund**: In August, the overseas assets of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Exchange Fund decreased by HK$52.6 billion to HK$3,487.1 billion. The monetary base was HK$2,014.2 billion [3]. Corporate News - **Hua Run Land**: In August, the total contract sales amount was about RMB 13.2 billion, and the sales floor area was about 5.39 million square meters, down 13.2% and 26.7% year - on - year respectively. In the first eight months, the cumulative total contract sales amount was RMB 136.8 billion, and the sales area was about 5.12 million square meters, down 12% and 23.3% respectively [4]. - **Sainsbury's and JD.com**: Sainsbury's terminated the negotiation with JD.com regarding the sale of its Argos general merchandise retail business [3]. Other News - **Anti - dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce of China launched an anti - dumping investigation into imported related analog chips from the United States starting from the 13th, involving general - purpose interface and gate - driver chips [3]. - **Civil Aviation Ticket Booking**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the booking of civil aviation tickets is gradually peaking, and the search popularity of domestic air tickets has increased by more than 30% [3]. - **US President's Statement**: US President Trump said he was ready to impose major sanctions on Russian oil if NATO took the same action and all NATO countries stopped buying Russian oil. He also said that NATO as a whole should impose a 50% - 100% tariff on China until the Russia - Ukraine war ends [2].

Company Insights - The report highlights that Hongteng Precision (6088) is currently trading at HKD 4.38, with a short-term target price of HKD 4.80, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% [1] - The company is expected to hold a "Tech Day" next week, focusing on AI-enabled long-term development in the automotive industry, which may provide further updates on its EV business strategy [1] - Hongteng Precision is set to benefit from the upcoming launch of new flagship AI server platforms, GB200 and GB300, in the second half of 2025, which will increase demand for power supply and liquid cooling solutions [1] - The company is expanding its production lines in India, which is anticipated to enhance its market share in AirPods as production efficiency improves [1] - The current valuation corresponds to a FY26E P/E ratio of 15.2x, which is a 34% discount compared to the average valuation of peers in Hong Kong, A-shares, Taiwan, and international markets [1] Industry Overview - The macroeconomic focus indicates that mainland China has returned to deflation, with August CPI down 0.4% and PPI down 2.9% [3][11] - The Chinese government is emphasizing the importance of strengthening domestic circulation in its economic strategy [11] - The report notes that the automotive industry is undergoing a special rectification action to address online chaos and irrational competition [11]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors remain optimistic about the Hang Seng Index, expecting it to challenge 26,000 next week, with a buyback price of 24,800 for bull certificates [1] - Short-term technical signals indicate a "sell" recommendation, with bearish signals prevailing; support at 25,000 and resistance at 25,700 and 26,100 [1] - Cautious investors are advised to choose products with a buyback price below the second support level of 24,733 [1] Group 2: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) - The stock price closed at 47.58, with investors holding call options with an exercise price of 48; short-term signals indicate a "buy" [7] - Resistance levels are identified at 52.8 and 56.6, with a recommendation to consider options with an exercise price of 50, which is slightly out of the money [7] Group 3: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - The stock price has been trading between 98 and 104 for two weeks, with a closing price of 103; the recommendation is a "buy" [9] - Resistance levels are at 118.9 and 119.1; caution is advised for investors holding options with an exercise price of 158, as it is significantly out of the money [9] Group 4: BYD Company (01211.HK) - The stock is viewed as a strong buy, with potential for a rebound; support levels are at 102.3 and 95.9 [14] - Investors are considering bullish certificates with a target of 100 [14] Group 5: China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) - The stock has closed above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, but the overall signal is a "sell" [18] - Support levels are at 35.2 and 34.5, which investors should consider [18] Group 6: Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - The stock is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; the recommendation is a "buy" [24] - Resistance levels are at 83.4 and 87.6, with short-term support at 75.9 and 71.2 [24]

Market Overview - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed at 25,058.51, down 1.12% for the day and up 24.92% year-to-date[5] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 302.23 billion, an increase of 12.9% from the previous day[7] - The Nasdaq index proposed reforms to raise IPO thresholds for high-growth companies[3] Sector Performance - The Technology Index fell by 1.85% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 24.86%[5] - The Financial Index decreased by 0.42%, with a year-to-date increase of 12.36%[5] - The Utilities Index showed minimal change, down 0.03%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.11%[5] Key Stock Movements - BYD (1211.HK) adjusted its sales target down by 16%, resulting in a 3.2% drop in stock price[7] - Xinyi Solar (968.HK) rose by 2.1%, while Flat Glass (6865.HK) increased by 5.7% amid strong demand in the photovoltaic sector[7] - The stock price of China Longgong (3339.HK) is recommended for purchase at HKD 2.75, with a target price of HKD 3.00[14] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 54,000, raising expectations for potential interest rate cuts[3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.1549%, down 7.35 basis points over the past five days[22] Investment Recommendations - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 480, with a target price of HKD 550, reflecting a potential upside of 14.5%[10] - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) is highlighted for its strong market position, with a current price of CNY 1,800 and a target of CNY 2,000[10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 26,000 points, with recent developments indicating a temporary easing in the US-China trade war and a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance towards interest rate cuts [2][4][6] - The overall market sentiment remains active, with capital rotating across different sectors, and the expectation is for the market to continue consolidating at high levels [2][4] Company Specifics - New World Development (0016) reported a 0.5% increase in its annual underlying profit, maintaining a dividend of 2.8 HKD [4] - Alibaba (9988) initiated an offer to exchange its outstanding senior notes, involving a total of 2.65 billion USD [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% by the end of the year, reflecting a cautious approach towards future inflation uncertainties [4][8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion RMB reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [8] Sector Focus - The consumer electronics sector is entering its traditional peak season, with major brands set to launch new smartphones [7] - The AI and robotics sectors are seeing increased activity, with initiatives to promote "AI+" applications and advancements in humanoid robots [7][8] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market saw a net inflow of approximately 3.1 billion USD in August, indicating a significant increase in foreign investment interest [8] - The investment product trading volume reached a record high of 6.07 trillion RMB last year, with a notable increase in participation from various companies [9] Regulatory Environment - Chinese regulators are considering measures to cool down speculative activities in the stock market, including potential restrictions on short selling and speculative trading [8] - The Chinese government is pushing for advancements in chip technology and strengthening the domestic supply chain [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 26,000 points, influenced by the extension of the US-China tariff truce and a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve, which may lead to interest rate cuts [2][5] - The overall market is active with a positive risk appetite, and capital is rotating among different sectors [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on the upcoming release of China's August Caixin Services PMI and the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3] Macro Focus - The Chinese express delivery industry is accelerating its "anti-involution" measures, with price increases in core e-commerce areas [4] - In August, over 2.65 million new A-share accounts were opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, a year-on-year increase of 165% [4][9] - The implementation of the "Shanghai Six Measures" has led to a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai [4][9] Corporate News - XGIMI Technology plans to issue H-shares for an IPO in Hong Kong [4][11] - NIO reported a narrowed adjusted loss in Q2, but its guidance for Q3 fell short of expectations [4][11] - Alibaba and Bosch are deepening their strategic partnership, focusing on AI-driven business innovation [4][11] - Tencent has launched an open-source intelligent agent framework, Youtu-Agent, aimed at various practical applications [4][11] Economic Indicators - The logistics industry in China maintained an expansionary trend in August, with a logistics prosperity index of 50.9% [9] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 24% [9] - The total value of residential property transactions in Hong Kong rose by 48% year-on-year in August [10]