Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China, amounting to $50 billion in just seven months, coincides with the U.S. government's budgetary struggles, highlighting a strategic shift in China's investment approach amidst rising U.S. fiscal instability [1][3][11]. Group 1: China's Strategic Shift - China's decision to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings is a calculated move to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. fiscal crisis and inflation, reflecting a broader trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves [3][4]. - The reduction is not a sign of a complete severance of U.S.-China relations but rather a cautious response to the current economic landscape, where U.S. financial instability poses risks to Chinese investments [4][15]. - China's previous strategy of accumulating U.S. debt was based on the stability of the dollar and the U.S. economy, which has now changed due to increasing fiscal challenges in the U.S. [4][6]. Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. government faces recurring budgetary impasses, leading to shutdowns that disrupt public services and reflect deeper political dysfunction, rather than a lack of funds [3][6]. - The U.S. relies heavily on debt to finance its operations, with a significant annual fiscal deficit, but political polarization has made it increasingly difficult to raise the debt ceiling [3][6]. - The withdrawal of major buyers like China and Japan from the U.S. Treasury market has diminished the attractiveness of U.S. debt, exacerbating the fiscal situation [8][11]. Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The current dynamics indicate a shift from unilateral pressure to a more complex relationship characterized by mutual constraints and necessary cooperation [15][16]. - Trump's approach towards China has softened, recognizing China's strengthened position in various sectors, including rare earths and agriculture, which are critical to U.S. interests [9][13]. - China's actions signal a strategic maturity, indicating that it is no longer a passive player but an active participant in the global economic landscape, capable of influencing U.S. policy [15][16].

Core Insights - The international influence and attractiveness of China's bond market have significantly increased, with 1,170 foreign institutions from over 80 countries holding approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds as of the end of August [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In the first eight months of this year, the trading volume of bond spot transactions by foreign institutional investors reached about 11.8 trillion RMB, with the "Bond Connect" northbound trading volume accounting for approximately 7.2 trillion RMB [1] - The "Swap Connect" business has also seen continuous growth, with over 15,000 transactions and a cumulative nominal principal amount of about 8.2 trillion RMB, representing more than a ninefold increase since its launch [1] Group 2: Market Size and Growth - As of the end of August, the total balance of China's bond market reached 192 trillion RMB, making it the second largest in the world [1] - The bond issuance scale in the first eight months of this year exceeded 59 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%, with net bond financing amounting to 11.8 trillion RMB, establishing it as the second largest channel for financing the real economy [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported the financial market operations for August 2025, highlighting significant bond issuance and market balances [1] Bond Market Issuance - In August, a total of 74,281.4 billion yuan in various bonds were issued, including: - Government bonds: 13,277.6 billion yuan - Local government bonds: 9,776.4 billion yuan - Financial bonds: 11,550.3 billion yuan - Corporate credit bonds: 12,391.4 billion yuan - Credit asset-backed securities: 212.2 billion yuan - Interbank certificates of deposit: 26,956.5 billion yuan [1] Bond Market Custody Balances - As of the end of August, the total custody balance of the bond market reached 192.0 trillion yuan, with: - Interbank market custody balance: 169.8 trillion yuan - Exchange market custody balance: 22.2 trillion yuan - By bond type, the custody balances were: - Government bonds: 38.4 trillion yuan - Local government bonds: 53.0 trillion yuan - Financial bonds: 43.9 trillion yuan - Corporate credit bonds: 34.1 trillion yuan - Credit asset-backed securities: 1.0 trillion yuan - Interbank certificates of deposit: 20.4 trillion yuan - The custody balance of commercial bank counter bonds was 222.5 billion yuan [1]

近期，彭博澳门银行业研讨会在澳门成功举办。来自 澳门中央证券托管结算一人有限公司 （MCSD）、债券通有限公司、工银澳门、海通银行澳门分行 的特邀嘉宾，与彭博市场专家围绕 全球外汇市场、跨境债券投资、数据流动以及风险管理 等热门话题展开深度讨论，聚焦市场新机 遇。让我们一起回顾现场精彩发言！ 近年来，离岸人民币债券在澳门的发行规模不断增长，吸引了更多国际投资者的关注，推动了澳门与 全球金融市场的进一步融合。 汪大海 彭博大中华区总裁 全球外汇市场动态与交易策略 开场致辞 近期美联储降息25个基点，美元正如市场预期逐步走向宽松货币政策，"去美元化"成为市场讨论焦 点。 彭博大中华区总裁汪大海先生欢迎现场嘉宾的到来并发表开场辞。他表示， 澳门在国家发展与粤港 澳大湾区建设中有着独特且重要的战略地位，既有与国际标准接轨的制度环境，又有着与内地市场 紧密相连的区位优势，这让澳门在人民币国际化进程中发挥了重要作用。 特朗普的贸易政策正在不断加剧'去美元化'的趋势，通过对全球施加高关税来减少美国贸易逆差，就 会减少美元在全球输出中的流动性，改变原有美元体系循环。 正如IMF公布的数据来看，过去十年替 代美元的最核心资产就 ...

Corporate Borrowing - Corporate borrowing has seen a significant increase, with $230 billion in debt deals tracked just this month, marking the heaviest volume for any month ever [1] - The competition for debt sales may impact the government bond market, raising questions about the dynamics between corporate issuers and bond buyers [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The current environment shows a record issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds, but the focus is on the buyers who anticipate a Federal Reserve easing strategy [2] - The Federal Reserve has already eased rates by 25 basis points, leading many investors to expect further declines in rates [3] Yield Analysis - The yield on Barclays' investment-grade bonds is around 4.90%, with a current 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 4.14%, resulting in a spread of about 76 basis points [4] - This spread indicates that the additional yield for taking on corporate credit risk compared to risk-free Treasury securities is the smallest since 1998, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [5] Investor Behavior - Investors are motivated to purchase corporate bonds before yields fall further, reflecting concerns about equity market valuations and the perceived risk in the current environment [6] - The relatively low additional yield of less than 5% raises questions about the credit risk associated with corporate bonds, which may be underestimated by the market [6]

Economic Data - In the first eight months of 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] - As of the end of August, accounts receivable for large-scale industrial enterprises amounted to 272.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, while finished goods inventory was 67.3 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [1] - The operating income per 100 yuan of assets for large-scale industrial enterprises was 74.0 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 yuan year-on-year, and the average accounts receivable collection period extended to 70.1 days, an increase of 3.7 days year-on-year [1] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly announced support for foreign institutional investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [1] - As of the end of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries and regions had entered the Chinese bond market, holding a total of approximately 4 trillion yuan in bonds [1] Corporate Activities - De Yi Shi International Factoring was invited to participate in the China International Fair for Trade in Services, showcasing export factoring services and sharing practical experiences in international trade financing and risk management [2] - The "Mining Construction Financial Chain" supply chain finance platform was officially launched by Lian Yi Rong, marking a significant breakthrough in the digital financial transformation of China Coal Mining Construction Group [2] - Yibin Development Holding Group's Sichuan Sanjiang Huihai Commercial Factoring Company received recognition for its innovative case in corporate party building, which will be included in the case library of the Red Flag Publishing House [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's four measures will promote the internationalization of the offshore RMB bond market, enhance the willingness of overseas funds to allocate and market liquidity, and inject lasting impetus into the internationalization of the bond market [2][9][10] - In August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises above the national level increased significantly year - on - year, driving the cumulative profit growth rate from January to August to turn positive, indicating a gradual recovery of micro - entity vitality [3][11][12] - In the money market, due to the approaching National Day holiday and end - of - quarter disturbances, most capital prices rose, and the central bank conducted net capital injections through open - market operations [4][14] - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly last week, with different performance among industries and fluctuations in issuance costs [5][17] - In the secondary market of credit bonds, trading activity increased, bond yields mostly rose, credit spreads widened across the board, and rating spreads changed slightly [6][30] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - On September 25th, the central bank announced four measures to accelerate the development of the offshore RMB market, including supporting overseas institutional investors' participation in the repurchase business of the domestic bond market, expanding the "Swap Connect" quotation dealer team and increasing the daily north - bound trading quota, increasing the supply of RMB assets such as treasury bonds in the Hong Kong market, and accelerating the listing of RMB treasury bond futures in Hong Kong. These measures will form a complete closed - loop of "asset supply - trading convenience - risk hedging" [2][9] Macroeconomic Data - In August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises above the national level increased by 20.4% year - on - year, driving the cumulative profit growth rate from January to August to turn from - 1.7% in January - July to 0.9%. Low base in the same period of 2024, "anti - involution" policies, and effective cost control contributed to this improvement. In terms of industries, the equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing industries performed well. At the enterprise level, private, medium - sized, and small enterprises showed good profit growth [3][11][12] Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted a net capital injection of 1122.3 billion yuan through open - market operations. Affected by the approaching National Day holiday and end - of - quarter disturbances, most capital prices rose. Except for the 1 - day pledged repurchase rate, which decreased by 15bp, other term pledged repurchase rates increased by 2 - 18bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly increased, and the spread between them narrowed [4][14] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased significantly last week, reaching 447.423 billion yuan, with an average daily issuance scale of 89.485 billion yuan. The cancellation scale of issuance also increased. In terms of bond types, the issuance scale of ultra - short - term financing bills and medium - term notes increased significantly. In terms of industries, the infrastructure investment and financing industry and the power production and supply industry in the industrial bond sector had large increases in issuance scale. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net capital outflow, while the power production and transportation industries in the industrial bond sector had large net inflows, and the light manufacturing industry had a large net outflow. The average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated, with changes ranging from 1bp to 59bp [5][17][26] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market last week was 9387.09 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume increase of 2.5216 billion yuan. Trading activity continued to rise. Bond yields mostly rose. For interest - rate bonds, the yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds mostly increased, with a maximum increase of 5bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.88%. For credit bonds, yields increased by 3 - 12bp. Credit spreads widened by 5 - 12bp across the board, and rating spreads changed within 3bp [6][30] Appendix - The report lists bond market credit risk events, including bond defaults, extensions, etc. of several companies [42] - It also summarizes regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as policies to support digital consumption, sports industry, and debt financing of mature - layer enterprises, as well as measures to optimize market mechanisms and simplify procedures [43][44] - The monthly net financing amounts of major credit bond types from January 2024 to August 2025 are presented [45]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange aims to support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market, marking a significant milestone in the high-level opening of the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - The announcement is designed to meet the liquidity management needs of foreign institutional investors and promote connectivity between onshore and offshore financial markets, thereby enhancing the openness of the Chinese bond market [2][3]. - As of August 2025, the balance of the Chinese bond market reached 192 trillion RMB, ranking second globally, with bond issuance exceeding 59 trillion RMB from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% [2][3]. - The international influence and attractiveness of the Chinese bond market have significantly increased, with Chinese bonds included in major international bond indices, indicating strong global investor confidence in RMB-denominated assets [2][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investor Participation - By August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries held approximately 4 trillion RMB in Chinese bonds, with a trading volume of about 11.8 trillion RMB in the bond market from January to August 2025 [3]. - The announcement facilitates all foreign institutional investors, including those entering through the "Bond Connect" channel, to engage in bond repurchase transactions, thereby enhancing the connectivity between onshore and offshore markets [3][4]. Group 3: Operational Enhancements - The People's Bank of China has responded to market demands by allowing various foreign institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase transactions, providing flexible and efficient liquidity management channels [4][5]. - The new mechanism aligns with international practices by implementing a model that allows for the transfer of collateralized bonds, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors [4][5]. - A transition period of 12 months is provided for foreign institutions already engaged in bond repurchase transactions to adapt to the new operational model [6].

Group 1 - The announcement aims to promote the interconnection of onshore and offshore financial markets and enhance the high-level opening of China's bond market [1] - As of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries and regions have entered the Chinese bond market, holding approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds [1] - The new regulation allows all types of foreign institutional investors to participate in bond repurchase transactions in the interbank bond market, including central banks, sovereign wealth funds, commercial banks, insurance companies, and various asset management institutions [1] Group 2 - The announcement introduces a shift to international practices for bond repurchase transactions, allowing for the transfer of pledged bonds between parties, which enhances market liquidity [2] - A 12-month transition period is provided for existing foreign institutions to continue using the original model before fully adopting the new practices [2] - Regulatory measures will ensure a balance between openness and security, implementing closed-loop management for transactions, custody, settlement, and foreign exchange [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to support foreign institutional investors in bond repurchase operations is expected to enhance the liquidity management of RMB-denominated bonds and promote the internationalization of the RMB [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Foreign Institutional Investors - The opening of bond repurchase operations to foreign institutional investors will better meet their liquidity management needs and enhance the attractiveness of RMB bonds internationally [2][3]. - Foreign investors, such as multi-strategy funds, have expressed a strong demand for liquidity management in RMB bonds, which will be facilitated by the new repurchase operations [3]. - The new policy addresses three major pain points previously faced by foreign investors when raising funds through bond sales: instability in investment strategies, increased transaction costs, and heightened investment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Operational Details and Concerns - Foreign institutional investors are particularly interested in the operational details of bond repurchase, including the transferability of underlying bonds and compliance with international practices [6]. - The bond repurchase business will initially allow for buyout-style repurchases, with plans to introduce pledge-style repurchases in the future, addressing differences in operational practices between China and international markets [6][7]. - Concerns regarding the delivery versus payment (DVP) settlement mechanism and the adequacy of repurchase limits to meet liquidity management needs have been raised by foreign investors [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Future Prospects - The repurchase limit for sovereign institutions and RMB clearing banks is set at 100% of their bond holdings, while other foreign investors will have an initial limit of 80%, with potential adjustments in the future [7]. - The central bank is also promoting the acceptance of domestic bonds as eligible collateral in Hong Kong and global markets, further enhancing the operational space for RMB bonds as liquidity management tools [8].