策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - *ST Zhengping has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of 221.93% from September 1 to November 18, 2025, leading to trading risks and subsequent stock suspension for investigation [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Risks - The stock of *ST Zhengping has seen 26 consecutive trading days of gains since September, with three suspensions for investigation during this period [1][5]. - The company announced that its stock will resume trading on December 3, 2025, after completing the investigation into trading activities [1][5]. - The rapid increase in stock price has created a significant divergence from the Shanghai Composite Index and the construction industry, indicating heightened trading risks [1][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Audit Issues - In 2024, *ST Zhengping reported revenue of 1.362 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 484 million yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 475 million yuan [4][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 652 million yuan and a net loss of 99 million yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 190 million yuan [4][8]. - The 2024 annual report received an audit opinion that could not express an opinion due to limited audit scope, leading to a delisting risk warning for the stock [3][7]. Group 3: Operational Challenges and Future Uncertainties - The company faces significant uncertainties regarding its ability to develop mineral resources, as it lacks sufficient funds, personnel, and equipment for future mining operations [3][8]. - As of September 30, 2025, *ST Zhengping reported cash holdings of 72.3767 million yuan, with 30.2848 million yuan restricted due to various legal and operational issues, resulting in a high debt ratio of 92.49% [3][8]. - The company has received a mining license for its subsidiary but requires substantial investment for future development, which is currently uncertain due to multiple external factors [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yurun Group announced its commitment to fully sourcing cage-free eggs and meat chickens in its global factories by 2035 or earlier, reflecting its dedication to sustainable food procurement and responding to growing consumer demand for health and ethical consumption [3][8]. Group 1: Commitment to Sustainable Practices - Yurun Food's decision to transition to cage-free sourcing is a key milestone in its corporate social responsibility and sustainability strategy, aiming to provide safer and healthier product choices for consumers [3][8]. - The initiative is expected to inspire more companies to join the sustainable development movement, enhancing the reputation of Chinese enterprises in the global market [3][10]. Group 2: Benefits of Cage-Free Farming - Cage-free eggs allow hens to roam indoors or outdoors, improving animal welfare and enhancing the nutritional quality of eggs while significantly reducing food safety risks, with studies showing a 25-fold lower probability of Salmonella contamination compared to caged farms [5][8]. - Cage-free meat chickens also benefit from increased space and natural behaviors, leading to better health and higher quality meat, aligning with consumer preferences for humane treatment of animals [5][10]. Group 3: Company Overview - Yurun Group is a diversified enterprise encompassing seven industries, including food, real estate, and logistics, with its food division ranked 112th among China's top 500 companies and 8th among private enterprises [10][11]. - The company operates a comprehensive food safety chain from source to end, offering a wide range of products, including fresh and frozen meats, and has established several well-known brands [10][11]. Group 4: Research and Development Leadership - Yurun Group leads the industry in research and development, being the first domestic food company to establish multiple key laboratories and research centers focused on meat processing and quality control [11]. - The company has undertaken over 40 significant national and provincial research projects, contributing to advancements in food safety and processing technologies [11].

Core Points - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Hebei Province delivered 551,000 sets of affordable housing, benefiting over 1.4 million residents [1] - The province has made significant progress in urban renewal and the transformation of old urban areas, with 9,898 old urban communities renovated, impacting 1.54 million households [1] - Hebei has also completed the renovation of 27,000 rural unsafe houses, ensuring housing safety for low-income rural groups [1] Group 1 - Hebei has steadily advanced the renovation of shantytowns and old urban areas, increasing the supply of affordable housing [1] - A total of 91,000 sets of various types of affordable housing were built, addressing housing issues for over 200,000 disadvantaged groups [1] - The province has implemented a principle of "household autonomy, voluntary participation by enterprises, and government support" in promoting the construction of prefabricated rural houses, with 19,000 units built [1] Group 2 - Hebei has revitalized idle resources through urban renewal initiatives, transforming old factories and neighborhoods, significantly improving regional appearances [1] - The province has updated and renovated 9,094 kilometers of municipal underground pipelines during this period [1] - Hebei has constructed 4,032 "pocket parks" and opened 6,286 hectares of urban green space for public use [1] Group 3 - Hebei has leveraged the selection of Baoding and Xiong'an New Area as national pilot cities for intelligent construction to cultivate 21 national prefabricated construction bases and 62 pilot projects [2] - The green and low-carbon development in the construction sector has shown significant results, with all new urban buildings adhering to green building standards [2] - Barriers for secondary construction engineers have been removed, enabling mutual recognition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, facilitating local construction enterprises to expand into the Beijing-Tianjin market [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.88% during the morning session [1][8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 10,560 billion, a decrease of 1,807 billion compared to the previous day [1][8] - Over 3,900 stocks in the market experienced declines, with sectors such as energy metals, gaming, education, battery materials, rare earth permanent magnets, and film and television showing significant losses [1][8] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The pharmaceutical commercial sector, along with local stocks from Fujian, Hainan Free Trade Zone, tourism and hotels, AI mobile phones, real estate, and coal mining, saw notable gains [1][8] - AI mobile phone concept stocks remained active, with companies like Daoming Optics achieving a four-day consecutive rise and Furong Technology securing two consecutive gains [1][8] - Fujian local stocks continued to rise in the afternoon, with Dongbai Group hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks such as Zhaobiao Co., Pingtan Development, and Hai Xin Food also reaching their limits [3][8] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Fujian provincial government announced 12 new policies aimed at enhancing trade and cultural exchanges with Taiwan, including support for Taiwanese enterprises and optimizing tax services for Taiwanese businesses [7][14] - The launch of China's drug price registration system is set for December 2, 2025, allowing domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies to independently declare drug prices, promoting transparency and global market integration [4][11] Group 4: International Relations - Two Japanese organizations have requested to visit China, reflecting concerns over recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Suga regarding Taiwan, which have strained Sino-Japanese relations [2][10] - The Chinese Coast Guard has taken measures to drive away a Japanese fishing vessel that illegally entered the waters around the Diaoyu Islands, emphasizing China's stance on territorial sovereignty [5][12]

东南亚信息港讯(www.dnyxxg.com) 柬埔寨国土规划和建设部于12月2日发布通告，系统总结了该国建筑业 2025年的发展成果及长期累计数据，直观展现了建筑领域对国民经济的持续拉动作用。 通告核心数据显示，2025年柬埔寨国土规划和建设部及各省市同级部门已累计批准建筑投资项目3503个， 协议投资总额高达73.2亿美元，创年度新高。其中，层级审批差异与增长亮点尤为突出： 国土规划和建设部直接批准项目521个，投资额达67.4亿美元，较2024年同比大幅增长73.70%，成为拉动行 业增长的核心动力;各省市国土规划和建设局批准项目2982个，投资额4.53亿美元，同比增长27.93%，基层 建筑投资活力持续释放。 从长期发展维度看，通告进一步指出，2000年至2025年期间，柬埔寨累计批准建筑投资项目已达72820 个，协议投资总额累计突破876.96亿美元，二十余年的行业积淀为经济发展筑牢了坚实基础。 在高层建筑领域，柬埔寨的城市化发展印记尤为清晰。截至目前，该国已批准五层及以上建筑项目228 个，地域分布呈现"核心集聚、多点辐射"特征：金边作为核心城市领跑，获批103栋;西哈努克省紧随其 后，有31 ...

Core Points - The 20th "Golden Roundtable Award" ceremony for Chinese listed companies was held in Jiangyin, attended by over 200 guests including executives, scholars, and media representatives, highlighting achievements in corporate governance [1][2][3] - The event recognized over 100 listed companies with a total market value exceeding 10 trillion, including 16 companies with market values over 100 billion [1][2] Group 1 - The opening speech by Li Zhenqiang emphasized the importance of the "Golden Roundtable Award" as a platform for consensus and wisdom, aiming to support the transformation and upgrading of Chinese listed companies [2][3] - Jiangyin's Vice Mayor Ji Zhen highlighted the city's achievements as a manufacturing hub, with 66 listed companies and a total market value exceeding 300 billion, positioning Jiangyin as a leader among county-level cities [5][6] Group 2 - Liu Yunhong, a professor, discussed the development of corporate governance rules in China, identifying six key issues in current practices and advocating for a shift from "formal compliance" to "substantive effectiveness" [12] - Zhu Zhengyi shared insights from Longji Technology's acquisition of Xingke Jinpeng, emphasizing the strategic role of corporate secretaries in governance [12][13] - Su Mei analyzed the trends in the A-share market under the registration system, stressing the importance of value management for high-quality development [15] Group 3 - The award ceremony recognized outstanding companies and individuals in various categories, including "Most Influential Independent Director" and "Excellent Board of Directors," showcasing achievements in governance and value creation [18][20][33] - The "Best Board of Directors" award was presented to leading companies such as Weichai Power and China Ping An, reflecting their exemplary governance practices and strategic foresight [33][36]

11 月经济前瞻：需求偏疲软，生产有韧性 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据预测 核心观点 预计 11 月我国经济运行呈现生产稳中有韧性，金融与需求仍承压的格局：生产端， 预计 11 月工业生产回升，服务业景气放缓，工业稳增长政策发力于装备制造等新 动能领域，出口修复快于内需，规模以上工业增加值预计保持在中高速区间，但 假期效应消退后服务业商务活动略有回落，部分线下消费和地产相关服务景气走 弱；需求端，社零增速继续回落，主要受以旧换新边际减弱、"双十一"前置及汽 车补贴退坡等因素压制；投资方面 1-11 月固定资产投资累计为负、制造业小幅正 增长、基建低位徘徊、房地产投资大幅下行；出口方面，在开拓非美市场和中美经 贸磋商改善预期支撑下保持小幅正增长、进口温和回升。价格端，猪肉与油价整 体震荡偏弱，叠加需求偏弱，使得通胀维持低位，CPI 同比仅小幅正增长，PPI 仍 为负但跌幅收窄，整体通胀弹性不大。金融数据上，社融和信贷新增规模均处偏 弱水平，人民币贷款同比少增、M2 和 M1 增速略有回落，反映实体融资需求不 足。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 ❑ 消费：预计 11 月社零同比增速仍然承压 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow down from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 due to uncertainties in global tariff policies and fluctuations in the technology cycle [1] - Singapore's economy, being highly export-oriented, will face challenges from "2Ts": tariffs and the tech cycle, which will suppress trade-related sectors [1] - Despite external headwinds, Singapore's economy is characterized by "prudent resilience," supported by two internal engines: the modern services sector and a booming construction industry [1] Group 2 - The modern services sector, which includes finance, information communication, and professional services, will continue to act as an economic buffer due to Singapore's status as a global business hub and the benefits of digital transformation [1] - The construction industry is expected to be a growth highlight in 2026, driven by major infrastructure projects such as Changi Airport Terminal 5, Tuas Port, North-South Corridor, and integrated resort expansions [1] Group 3 - In terms of inflation and monetary policy, inflation in Singapore is expected to bottom out and rebound moderately, with overall inflation and core inflation projected at 1.2% and 1.0% respectively for 2026 [2] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is anticipated to maintain current monetary policy parameters in 2026 to retain flexibility in responding to fluctuations [2] Group 4 - The report predicts that the USD/SGD exchange rate will fluctuate between 1.25 and 1.30 in 2026 [3] - The Singapore government is updating its economic blueprint through the "Economic Strategy Review" to ensure long-term economic competitiveness amid increasing global economic fragmentation [3]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement shipments, and grinding mills at historical lows[2] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, such as PTA operating rates dropping to historical lows[2] - Demand for construction materials, automotive sales, and home appliances continues to decline, with rebar and building materials demand at historical lows[3] Prices - Domestic industrial product prices are fluctuating weakly, with black metals and coal prices recovering while construction materials are declining[4] - International commodity prices, including crude oil and copper, are experiencing weak fluctuations, while aluminum prices are rising[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions show significant year-on-year declines, with a 43% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 14% and 31% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai down 20% and 29% year-on-year respectively[5] Exports - Port throughput increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with November exports expected to show a positive growth of approximately 8.4%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.52% and DR007 at 1.47% as of November 28[6] - The central bank has implemented a net injection of 12,973 billion yuan in recent weeks[6] Risk Warning - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[6]