wo[Table_Title] Research Report 8 May 2025 电子 Technology Alphabet (GOOGL US): AI 搜索 vs 传统搜索，谷歌靠 AI Overviews 稳短期， 长期拓展搜索新模式 Google Uses AI Overviews to Stabilize, Must Accelerate "Gemini + Search" [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件： 2025 年 5 月 7 日，苹果公司服务高级副总裁 Eddy Cue 在美国司法部对谷歌的反垄断诉讼中作证时表示，苹果正在探 索将 AI 驱动的搜索引擎（如 Perplexity、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT）集成到 Safari 浏览器中，作为对谷 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change since December [1] - Fed Chairman Powell's strong statements and the warning of "dual risks of inflation and unemployment" in the meeting's statement sent a significant signal to the market [1][3] - Powell emphasized that the Fed has never altered its decision-making logic due to political pressure and will not take preemptive actions against hypothetical risks related to tariffs [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market initially dropped due to the Fed's statement indicating inflation remains slightly above target, but later reversed to close up 0.43% as Powell highlighted the robustness of the U.S. economy [4] - Significant divergence was observed in tech stocks, with Nvidia rising over 3% while Google fell 7% and Apple dropped 1%, reflecting concerns over intensified competition among tech giants [4] - Chinese concept stocks faced a sell-off, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index plunging 2.34%, led by Baidu's nearly 5% decline, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic regulatory pressures [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs reported that the current threshold for rate cuts is higher than during the 2019 trade war, predicting a potential start of the rate cut cycle in July, with a total reduction of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [5] - The Fed's statement included the phrase "economic outlook uncertainty has further increased," reflecting a cautious tone that contrasts with the optimistic expectations from the White House [5]

埃迪·库表示，苹果已在测试Safari 18浏览器的新功能，包括智能搜索功能，该功能利用苹果的端侧AI技术，能识别并提取网页内容。 手机厂商计划使用AI搜索，大模型厂商也对搜索市场虎视眈眈，OpenAI有意收购谷歌Chrome浏览器。 AI搜索正在严重冲击传统搜索引擎行业。 当地时间5月7日消息，苹果（AAPL.O）公司高级副总裁埃迪·库（Eddy Cue）在美国司法部对谷歌的反垄断诉讼作证时表示，苹果有计划在Safari浏览器中 引入AI功能选项，包括OpenAI、Perplexity、Anthropic等。当日，谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL.O）股价跌超7%，市值蒸发近1500亿美元。 庭审证词显示，谷歌每年向苹果支付数十亿美元的费用，2022年更是支付约200亿美元，以成为苹果iPhone的默认搜索引擎。这对于苹果而言是笔较为丰厚 的收入。不过，埃迪·库表示，4月Safari浏览器的搜索量出现了首次下降，一大原因是越来越多人开始使用AI技术。 埃迪·库表示，他担心苹果会失去两家公司合作协议中所约定的收益分成，并为此事夜不能寐。他认为谷歌应当继续作为Safari浏览器的默认搜索选项，但苹 果有计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential delisting of nearly 300 Chinese companies from U.S. markets if negotiations between the Trump administration and China reach a deadlock, raising concerns about the "weaponization of markets" [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Market Impact - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's statement that "all options are on the table" regarding the exclusion of Chinese stocks from U.S. markets has heightened market anxiety [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks major Chinese ADRs, experienced a sharp decline following the announcement of equal tariffs, indicating investor awareness of delisting risks [4]. - The Trump administration previously attempted to expel Chinese companies from U.S. markets during its first term, leading to significant regulatory changes and the delisting of major Chinese telecom firms [5]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Market Reactions - As of March 7, there are 286 Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges, with a total market capitalization of approximately $1.1 trillion [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a scenario where U.S. investors are banned from investing in Chinese stocks could lead to a sell-off demand of around $800 billion in Chinese equities [8]. - If such delisting occurs, it could trigger retaliatory selling of U.S. assets by Chinese investors, potentially affecting $370 billion in U.S. stocks and $1.3 trillion in U.S. bonds [8]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the strategic use of financial markets as a weapon, drawing parallels to the U.S. actions against Russia in 2022, but notes that the current geopolitical landscape complicates such a strategy against China [9]. - Experts warn that while the U.S. may not immediately act on delisting, the threat remains, which could lead to further market instability and potential backlash against U.S. assets [9].

Group 1 - Seven of the world's top ten billionaires saw their wealth increase in April, with Elon Musk experiencing the largest gain of $46 billion, bringing his total wealth to $386.5 billion [1][4][33] - The Nasdaq index rose by 0.7% over the past month, while the S&P 500 index fell by 1.1%, indicating a mixed performance in the stock market amid economic uncertainties [2][4] - Amancio Ortega, founder of Inditex, was the second-largest gainer among the top ten billionaires, with an increase of nearly $9 billion, bringing his wealth to $123.3 billion, aided by a 2% rise in Inditex's stock price and a 5% appreciation of the euro against the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - Bernard Arnault, head of LVMH, did not benefit from the strong euro, as the company's Q1 revenue fell short of analyst expectations, with a 3% decline in U.S. sales and an 11% drop in Asian sales (excluding Japan), leading to a 15% drop in LVMH's stock price and a loss of nearly $15 billion in Arnault's wealth [3][4] - Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg also experienced wealth declines, with Bezos losing $5.3 billion and Zuckerberg losing $9.3 billion [3][4] - The total wealth of the top ten billionaires at the beginning of the month was $1.77 trillion, an increase of $40 billion since April 1 [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice is pushing for Google to sell its Chrome browser as part of efforts to address its illegal search monopoly, with OpenAI expressing interest in acquiring Chrome if it becomes available [2][3]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Government Actions - OpenAI's executive testified that if the court forces Google to sell Chrome, the company would actively bid for it [2]. - The DOJ argues that Google's control over Chrome hinders the development of companies like OpenAI, which rely on search capabilities [3]. - The DOJ is advocating for Google to share its search data with competitors to promote fair competition, a proposal supported by Judge Amit Mehta [6]. Group 2: OpenAI's Business Strategies - OpenAI attempted to access Google's search data to aid in the development of its SearchGPT product but was denied by Google in July 2024 [4]. - OpenAI's representative stated that opening Google's search data would allow for faster and better product development, enhancing the quality of real-time information [6]. - OpenAI has considered developing its own web browser and has hired key personnel involved in Chrome's development [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Partnerships - OpenAI's ChatGPT reportedly holds an 85% market share in the U.S. AI market, as indicated in strategic documents [7]. - OpenAI has formed a significant partnership with Apple, integrating ChatGPT into Apple's AI features, which is expected to increase exposure and sales of ChatGPT subscriptions [7].

OpenAI 的一位高管在4月22日法庭听证会上作证，如果法院强迫谷歌出售谷歌的 Chrome 网络浏览 器，OpenAI将积极竞购。该听证会讨论涉及谷歌应如何改革，以纠正其非法搜索垄断。 • 政府称大量 Google 搜索查询来自 Chrome，司法部要求谷歌向竞争对手共享搜索数据以促进公平竞 争，法官Amit Mehta支持数据共享提案 • 美国司法部希望法院要求谷歌出售 Chrome，如果出售 OpenAI将积极竞购 图片来源： Unsplash ChatGPT 产品负责人 Nick Turley 也明确表示， OpenAI 曾提出向 Apple 支付一部分 Apple AI 聊天机 器人（ 与 ChatGPT 集成的）的查询所产生的收入。 Turley 没有提供任何细节，包括 OpenAI 是否向 苹果支付了任何款项，尽管此前有报道称两家公司之间没有就该协议转手。 在听证会上，司法部辩称，谷歌试图将其在搜索领域的主导地位扩展到人工智能这一较新的领域。美 国司法部希望法院阻止谷歌达成独家分销协议的能力，即谷歌安排将谷歌搜索和其他应用程序预装到 手机上，作为旨在解决谷歌非法搜索垄断的更广泛补救措施的一部分 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 宏观及政策层面 1.周一4/21，中国将公布1/5年期的贷款市场报价利率。 截止目前，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR 为3.6%，均持平前值，为连续五个月维持不变。此外，4月25日，中国人民银行将发布4月中期借贷便 利(MLF)数据。 2.周一4/21，国新办将于下午3时举行新闻发布会 ，请商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激和工 业和信息化部、国家卫生健康委、中国人民银行有关负责人介绍 《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试 点工作方案》 有关情况，并答记者问。 3.周二，美联储副主席杰斐逊在经济流动性峰会上发表讲话。 4.周二，IMF发布《世界经济展望》报告。 5.周三，美国、欧元区和英国将同步公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值 ，被视为观察企业与消费者信 心受损程度的第一窗口。特别是美国制造业PMI中的投入价格指数，被标普全球称为衡量关税通胀压 力的"第一站"。3月该指标已升至近两年来最快上涨水平，反映企业成本压力加剧。 美国制造业投入价格指数 尤其值得关注，或揭示关税落地后的成本传导。 欧元区PMI方面，密切关 注新出口订单是否开始走弱。 7.周三，20国集团(G20)财政及央行部 ...

⑧【谷歌据悉在英国面临50亿英镑的诉讼】据外媒报道，谷歌在英国面临50亿英镑的诉讼，因其在搜索 领域滥用"近乎完全的主导地位"。 ④【黄金股盘前集体大涨，哈莫尼黄金、金田涨超8%】4月16日，COMEX期货黄金升破3300美元/盎 司，续刷历史新高。美股黄金股盘前集体上涨，其中，哈莫尼黄金、金田涨超8%，Anglogold涨超6%， 金罗斯黄金、科尔黛伦矿业涨超4%。 ⑤【特斯拉两款车型零部件采购计划遭搁置】4月16日，外媒援引知情人士消息称，特斯拉原计划从中 国向美运输Cybercab和Semi纯电动卡车的零部件，但该计划已被搁置。截至发稿，特斯拉跌2.4%。 ⑥【路威酩轩集团考虑涨价以应对关税】全球最大奢侈品集团路威酩轩集团（LVMH）披露的一季度业 绩低于预期。在业绩电话会上，路威酩轩集团管理层表示，集团考虑通过涨价来应对美国的关税，并计 划控制管理及行政费用和市场营销成本。 ⑦【杰富瑞：强势美元时代已经见顶】投行杰富瑞集团首席经济学家莫希特•库马尔（Mohit Kumar）在 一份报告中表示，强势美元的时代已经见顶，美元可能会进一步走软。随着各国央行寻求减少对美元的 依赖，黄金价格可能会受益。 每经记 ...