Core Viewpoint - Alibaba has sold 85% of its subsidiary Trendyol GO for approximately $700 million, resulting in a revenue of about 6 billion RMB, which will be reflected in its financial statements for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1 - The sale of Trendyol GO was completed within the six-month period ending September 30, 2025, and the cash consideration received was approximately $700 million (50 billion RMB) [1]. - The revenue generated from this sale is included in the unaudited condensed consolidated income statement as interest income and net investment income [1]. - Trendyol GO, established in 2010, operates local life services in Turkey and is fully owned by Trendyol, which is majority-owned by Alibaba [2]. Group 2 - Uber announced in May that it would acquire 85% of Trendyol GO for about $700 million in cash [2].

Core Insights - The domestic local life service market is entering a nuanced phase with intensified competition among platforms focusing on users, merchants, and instant delivery [1][5] - The third quarter serves as a critical window to observe the resilience and strategic determination of Meituan's core business [1][5] Group 1: Competition and Resource Allocation - The third quarter is typically an active period for local life services, with fierce competition for user attention and spending, particularly impacting Meituan's traditional strength in food delivery [2][6] - To maintain user engagement and spending, platforms are increasing resource investments, including consumer discounts and support for quality merchants, which directly affect short-term financial performance and long-term user loyalty [2][6] - The challenge for Meituan's management is to find a sustainable balance between market share, user experience, and financial health amid this competitive landscape [2][6] Group 2: Ecosystem Interconnectivity and Strategic Considerations - The competition in food delivery is interconnected with Meituan's broader local life service ecosystem, where high-frequency delivery transactions are crucial for attracting and retaining core users [3][7] - The intense competition prompts a reevaluation of resource allocation across the ecosystem, affecting the pace of investment in innovative businesses or long-term projects [3][7] - The ongoing competitive environment tests the unique value of Meituan's established instant delivery network, which is essential not only for food delivery but also for expanding into broader markets like instant retail [3][7] Group 3: Market Environment and Strategic Focus - The third quarter's market conditions act as a pressure test for Meituan's system resilience, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a solid foundation for core business amid ongoing competitive investments [4][8] - The essence of the local life service competition lies in deepening existing markets while exploring new scenarios, suggesting that the answer for Meituan may not solely be about "competition" but also about "integration" [4][8] - The next phase of this endurance race remains to be observed, highlighting the need for continuous improvement in operational efficiency and collaboration across business lines [4][8]

Core Viewpoints - Q3 losses have materialized, and post-Double 11, industry subsidies have somewhat receded, indicating that the worst period for the company may have passed, although the focus on core users and high average order value (AOV) may prolong the duration of losses, necessitating ongoing attention to competitive dynamics [1] - The Q3 instant delivery business losses were largely in line with expectations, with future subsidies shifting towards higher AOV orders, potentially leading to sustained losses. The topline saw a significant increase in order volume driven by subsidies, with Q3 takeaway and flash purchase daily order volume growing by 21% year-on-year to approximately 93 million orders. However, competition negatively impacted AOV, resulting in a year-on-year decline in takeaway revenue of about 12% [1] - Q3 losses for takeaway and flash purchase combined were approximately 19 billion (with a loss of 2.5 yuan per takeaway order and 0.8 yuan per flash purchase order), compared to Alibaba's losses of approximately 360-380 billion during the same period, indicating a loss ratio of about 1:2 [1] Business Segment Performance - The in-store and travel segment's topline growth has slowed, with losses better than market pessimism. Q3 GMV for in-store travel grew by 18% and revenue by 11%, primarily affected by macroeconomic consumption weakness and the impact of the takeaway battle on advertising budgets for certain beverage categories. Operating profit margin (OPM) was approximately 28%, with operating profit down 11% year-on-year to 4.9 billion, which was better than the anticipated decline of 30%-40% [2] - For Q4, topline growth is expected to remain relatively weak, with ongoing factors from Q3 continuing to affect performance, alongside the need to dynamically monitor competition from Douyin and Alibaba. Q4 GMV is projected to grow by 14% and revenue by 11%, with OPM expected to be in the range of 25%-30% [2] New Business Developments - The new business segment saw a significant reduction in losses in Q3, performing better than expected, maintaining an annual loss forecast of 10 billion, with expectations for reduced losses in 2026. Q3 losses were 1.3 billion (compared to Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.3 billion), with Q4 losses expected to be 4 billion, primarily due to new openings in three Gulf countries and a pilot in Brazil [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Considering short-term competitive impacts, the company has revised down its earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 to -3.21/-4.20/-0.11 yuan (previously -1.56/2.62/6.44 yuan). Using a segmented valuation approach, the company's reasonable valuation is calculated at 8.291 billion HKD, with a target price of 135.66 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local commerce platform in China, focusing on food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively exploring new business opportunities and expanding into overseas markets [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is a significant beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, core local commerce revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, primarily due to increased subsidies leading to a significant decline in delivery service revenue [2] - The operating loss for core local commerce in Q3 2025 was 14.1 billion yuan, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 2025, although the loss margin is anticipated to narrow sequentially [2] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's core advantage lies in its long-term business barriers rather than short-term subsidy investments, with significant operational efficiency in its food delivery business [2] - As industry competition becomes more rational, Meituan is expected to enter a profit recovery phase following a reduction in subsidies [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, achieving positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October 2025 [2] - The international strategy, although initiated later, is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [2] - Meituan is positioned as a leading player in local commerce with solid long-term barriers, and despite short-term competitive disturbances, the long-term value remains unchanged, leading to an "overweight" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local business platform in China, actively exploring new business increments while facing short-term profit pressure due to increased competition in its core local commerce segment [7][19] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to significantly broaden its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural growth opportunities for future profitability [7][22] - Despite short-term losses, the long-term value of Meituan remains intact due to its established competitive advantages and operational efficiencies [7][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meituan, founded in March 2010, has evolved into a comprehensive platform offering various local services, including food delivery, hotel bookings, and travel services [10] - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected to consist of 74% from core local commerce and 26% from new businesses [13] Q3 2025 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but below market expectations [18] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased subsidies impacting delivery service revenue [19] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive pressures from rivals like JD and Alibaba, which have intensified the subsidy wars in the food delivery market [24] - Meituan's operational efficiency and established market presence provide a strong defense against these competitive threats [25] International Expansion - Meituan's overseas expansion, particularly through its Keeta brand, has shown promising results in markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with plans to further penetrate the Middle East and Latin America [22][29] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [30][31] - The report emphasizes that while short-term losses are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's solid market position and competitive advantages [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba disclosed in its mid-term report for the fiscal year 2026 that it sold 85% of its subsidiary Trendyol GO, which operates local life services in Turkey, for approximately $700 million (RMB 5 billion) [1] Group 1: Sale Details - The sale agreement was established in May 2025, and the cash consideration was completed within the six-month period ending September 30, 2025 [1] - The proceeds from the sale generated approximately RMB 6 billion, which was included in the unaudited condensed consolidated income statement for the six months ending September 30, 2025, primarily considering cash received, the net asset book value of Trendyol GO, and the fair value of the retained 15% equity [1] Group 2: Background Information - Uber announced in May 2025 that it would acquire 85% of Trendyol GO for about $700 million in cash [1] - Trendyol GO was established in 2010 and is operated by the Turkish e-commerce platform Trendyol, which is majority-owned by Alibaba [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].

Core Insights - Meituan reported a significant net loss in Q3 2025, marking the first operational loss in its core business in three years, with adjusted net loss reaching 16.01 billion RMB compared to a profit of 12.83 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][5][7] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 95.49 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of only 2.0% [2][4] - The net profit margin fell to -16.75%, with a substantial decline from the previous year's profit [2] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.45 billion RMB, down 2.8% year-on-year, resulting in an operational loss of 14.07 billion RMB [4][5] Segment Analysis - Meituan's delivery service revenue decreased by 17.1% to 23.02 billion RMB, while commission revenue grew by only 1.1% to 26.38 billion RMB [5] - Online marketing services revenue increased by 5.7% to 14.19 billion RMB, and other services saw a significant growth of 84.9% to 3.86 billion RMB [5] Cost Structure - Sales costs surged by 23.7% to 70.31 billion RMB, accounting for 73.6% of total revenue, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 91% to 34.27 billion RMB, representing 35.9% of total revenue, up from 19.2% [5][6] Market Position - Despite the losses, Meituan maintained a leading market share in high-value orders, capturing over two-thirds of the market for orders above 15 RMB and over 70% for orders above 30 RMB [7] - Meituan's market share in instant transactions was 47.1%, with a reported loss of 20% market share compared to previous periods [7] User Metrics - The number of monthly transaction users for Meituan's food delivery service reached a historical high, with total transaction users exceeding 800 million in the past 12 months [7] New Business Developments - The new business segment reported a revenue increase of 15.9% to 28.04 billion RMB, although operating losses increased by 24.5% to 1.3 billion RMB [8] - Meituan's Keeta business is expanding globally, with operations in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia showing steady growth and improved operational efficiency [8] Cash Reserves - As of September 30, 2025, Meituan held cash and cash equivalents of 99.2 billion RMB, along with short-term investments totaling 42.1 billion RMB, amounting to a total cash reserve of 141.3 billion RMB [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan's food delivery losses have peaked, and there is a focus on value recovery amid dynamic competition [3][4] - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, but incurred an operating loss of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 244% [3][4] - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% to 67.4 billion yuan, with significant losses attributed to intensified market competition and increased promotional expenses [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that Meituan's food delivery business saw record high daily active users and monthly transaction users, indicating a robust growth in core user base [5] - Meituan's flash purchase business revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant increases in user transaction frequency and average order value [5][6] - The hotel and travel business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with over 200 service categories covered, and the platform has accumulated over 25 billion real consumption reviews [6] Group 3 - The report projects that Meituan's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 365.4 billion, 412.0 billion, and 467.9 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of -18.4 billion, +14.5 billion, and +37.8 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, with a target market value of 737 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 121 yuan per share [7] Group 4 - The report on Li Auto indicates that Q3 2025 revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 6.24 billion yuan [18][19] - Li Auto's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 15.5% [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37% [20][21]