Group 1: Risk Assessment - The core of risk assessment for Chinese enterprises going abroad lies in evaluating the potential scale of losses and the probability of occurrence, especially in light of "gray rhino" events like resource nationalization in Latin America[3] - Dynamic adjustments in host country tariff policies and sudden geopolitical events can lead to substantial losses for enterprises[10] - The risks covered by overseas investment insurance include expropriation, currency exchange restrictions, and political violence, with compensation ratios up to 95%[19] Group 2: Market Strategy - Capacity transfer should not be viewed as a one-time solution to tariff barriers, as evidenced by the shifting strategies of Chinese photovoltaic companies in response to U.S. investigations[3] - The strategy of "exchanging price for volume" may not be sustainable in the long term, as seen in the Thai market where price cuts led to reduced profit margins and brand positioning issues for Chinese EV manufacturers[3] - Chinese enterprises should focus on enhancing product quality and brand strength to build long-term competitiveness in overseas markets[36] Group 3: New Challenges - The "Five Questions" framework by Shenwan Hongyuan systematically analyzes how Chinese enterprises can navigate overseas markets[7] - The Thai government's EV policies require local production commitments for subsidies, increasing competition among manufacturers[26] - The increasing competition in the Thai automotive market necessitates a cautious approach to pricing strategies to avoid detrimental price wars[34]

Core Insights - Lithium Americas has drawn its first $435 million from the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program to advance the Thacker Pass lithium mine development in Nevada [1] - The Thacker Pass project is planned to produce 40,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, expected to commence production in 2028, potentially supplying materials for 800,000 electric vehicles and becoming the largest lithium source in the Western Hemisphere [1] Financial and Project Details - The funding is part of a $2.26 billion loan agreement with the DOE, specifically allocated for the first phase of construction [1] - In exchange for the loan, the DOE will hold a 5% equity stake in both Lithium Americas and the project through warrants, and the repayment term for the initial $182 million debt has been extended by five years [1] Strategic Partnerships - General Motors holds a 38% stake in the Thacker Pass project and has signed a 20-year priority procurement agreement for lithium materials [1] - The U.S. government's initiative aims to reduce dependence on Chinese lithium processing, as current domestic lithium production is less than 5,000 tons annually, with the project expected to significantly enhance self-sufficiency [1]

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 17.9% | 13.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无 相关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ganfeng Lithium announced on October 21 that as of October 10, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders is 384,400 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and the restocking demand on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase in October due to the capacity release of salt lakes. If the resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures prices into a weak - oscillating channel. On the demand side, downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' demand is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the futures prices [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage, and possible overseas enterprises' rush - to - export sentiment. Negative factors include the planned resumption of the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine and the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 72,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.4% and a historical percentile of 14.9% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.37%) daily and 3,300 yuan (4.54%) weekly. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes [8]. - **Spread Data**: For example, LC2511 - LC2512 is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (88.89%) and a weekly increase of 220 yuan (183.33%) [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of different types of lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have different daily and weekly changes. For instance, lithium mica with Li2O:2 - 2.5% has an average price of 1,845 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.1%) daily and 120 yuan (6.96%) weekly [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, have their own price changes. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.14%) daily and 1,100 yuan (1.55%) weekly [23]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between electric carbon and industrial carbon, electric hydrogen and electric carbon, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices have different changes [26]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract has its own historical trend. The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers also vary, such as the basis of Tianqi Lithium being 300 yuan for the LC2507 contract [30][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,892, a decrease of 813 from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, has its own trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate also has a certain pattern [37][38]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about rising procurement costs, they can use futures and options. For example, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with an 80% hedging ratio at 70,000 - 73,000 yuan and sell put options with a 20% hedging ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: To prevent the reduction of sales profits due to price drops, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts and use option combinations, such as buying put options and selling call options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can short futures contracts with a 40% hedging ratio at 80,000 - 83,000 yuan and sell call options with a 20% hedging ratio [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, lithium carbonate showed a stable start after the holiday, with terminal consumption hitting new highs, and both spot and exchange inventories declined. The market's bullish sentiment emerged, leading to a significant rise in the market at the end of the week. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement, indicating an increase in downstream consumption after the holiday [4]. - In the later stage, the fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand still has an incremental expectation, but the sustainability of its strength is questionable. Technically, there is resistance above 75,000 yuan [4][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate decreased, while the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price, lithium carbonate main contract price, and the prices of cobalt - acid lithium and ternary materials increased. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) price slightly decreased. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.81% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of October 17, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 30,686 lots, with the latest matching transaction price at 76,180 yuan/ton. The positions of the main contract 2511 were 159,000 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of October 17, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,765 tons, an increase of 326 tons from the previous period. Low - cost production capacity is still being gradually put into operation, and African lithium resources inflow has further increased [7]. - Lithium Salt Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import average price decreased by about 14% compared with the previous period [8]. - Lithium Ore Import: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The imports from different countries showed different trends [9]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of October 17, the production and prices of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased. The installed capacity of iron - lithium batteries accounted for nearly 80%, and the inventory of iron - lithium cathode materials decreased significantly, indicating good terminal consumption [10]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 367,000 units. New policies on vehicle purchase tax exemption and replacement and scrapping subsidies have been introduced [11][12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons compared with the previous period [13]. This Week's Outlook - Terminal consumption is heating up, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited due to resistance from both fundamentals and technical aspects [14]. Industry News - Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [15]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd.'s Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentina Carlo project is still in the exploration stage [15].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) plans to authorize its management to dispose of its publicly listed stock assets based on market conditions, with a total transaction amount not exceeding 10% of the latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1] Summary by Sections - Authorization Details - The board of directors intends to grant management the authority to select or determine the trading methods, timing, prices, and quantities for the asset disposal [1] - The authorization period is set for 12 months from the date of approval by the board [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696.HK) announced that it will hold a board meeting on October 29, 2025, to consider and approve the third quarter results for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, along with addressing other matters if necessary [1] Summary by Categories - **Company Announcement** - The board meeting is scheduled for October 29, 2025 [1] - The meeting will focus on the approval of the third quarter performance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - Other matters may also be addressed during the meeting [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, regional bank credit crises, trade frictions, and seasonal changes in commodity markets. Market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends and risks [15][23][28]. - For financial assets, gold is in a strong - rising state due to risk - aversion, while the dollar is under pressure, and the stock market shows different degrees of weakness. For commodities, the supply and demand of different products vary, and price trends are also diverse [15][20][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2025 fiscal deficit decreased by $41 billion to $1.775 trillion. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50bp in October due to the US government shutdown and regional bank credit crises, driving gold prices to break through $4300. Silver's squeeze pressure eases, and gold is in a strong - rising trend. [13][15] - Investment advice: Gold prices are in a strong - volatile state at high levels, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US agricultural minister is consulting with South American countries on soybean crushing. Trump will meet with Putin in about two weeks. US regional bank stocks tumbled, putting pressure on the dollar. [17][18][20] - Investment advice: The dollar is bearish in the short term [21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Milan hopes to cut interest rates by 50bp this month. Two US regional banks have credit problems, triggering a sell - off. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has increased again. [22][23] - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether credit concerns continue to ferment [24]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In the first three quarters, industrial enterprises' procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The UK included several Chinese enterprises in the entity list, affecting the A - share market. [25][26] - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan on the day. Trade frictions continue, and the bond market environment is more favorable than in Q3. Long positions can be held, but chasing long positions needs to be cautious. [28][29] - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and chasing long positions needs to be cautious. There will be opportunities to buy long positions at low levels after the new regulations on fund fees are implemented [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in Changzhi market is stable. After the holiday, the coking coal futures rebounded. In the short term, the supply recovers, and the demand is okay, with the futures oscillating. [30] - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal futures will oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.86% month - on - month. The US soybean crushing in September reached a record high, and the soybean oil inventory decreased. The oil market lacks clear guidance and is expected to oscillate. [31] - Investment advice: It is recommended to buy palm oil long positions at low levels [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 15, the cumulative inspection of Xinjiang cotton increased by 124% year - on - year. The cotton picking in Xinjiang has passed the halfway mark, but the snow and rain in northern Xinjiang have slowed down the progress. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are under pressure in the short term. [33][34][35] - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, Sino - US game progress, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 16, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 17 yuan/ton, 52 yuan/ton, 85 yuan/ton, and 76 yuan/ton respectively. The opening rate of starch enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased against the season. [36] - Investment advice: It is recommended to look at narrowing the spot rice - flour price difference in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real fundamentals is slow, the futures rice - flour price difference of the 11 - contract may still have room for upward repair [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of October 10, 2025, the corn inventory in the northern four ports increased by 138,000 tons week - on - week, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port changed. Corn futures rebounded slightly, but the price is expected to fall later. [37][38] - Investment advice: Low - risk preference investors can stop losses on short positions opportunistically, and long positions should wait for opportunities [39]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September 2025, South Korea's coal imports were 11.2241 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and an 18.5% year - on - year increase. After the National Day, the coastal coal consumption is high, and the coal price is expected to be strong before mid - November. [40] - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to be strong before mid - November [40]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A steel mill in France shut down its blast furnace due to a fire. The iron ore price is in an oscillating state. The molten iron is expected to decline in November, and the ore price will continue to oscillate weakly. [41] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel mill's inventory and profit. The ore price will continue to oscillate weakly [42]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujubes in Xinjiang have entered the drying period, and merchants have gone to the producing areas to purchase. The futures price of jujubes has risen, and the physical inventory has decreased. It is in the early stage of procurement, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43][44] - Investment advice: Wait and see. Pay attention to the price game in the producing areas and downstream consumption [44]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. As of October 16, the inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The steel price is supported by inventory reduction, but the rebound is limited. [45][46] - Investment advice: Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [47]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 15, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.09/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased. The Shanghai lead futures may oscillate upward in the short term. [48] - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, take profits on previous long positions in time. For arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads and short - term internal - external reverse spreads [48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 15, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $139.83/ton. The LME inventory decreased. The zinc market oscillates, and the export window is basically closed. [49] - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Beijing Easpring signed an MOU with AMG for lithium hydroxide procurement. Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate products were shipped. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. [51][53] - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices and the reverse - spread opportunity of LC2511 - 2512 [53]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Only 10% of Indonesian mining enterprises understand ESG. The global nickel inventory has increased significantly, and the price oscillates above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels. [54][55] - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, and speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of October 16, the weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased by 1.23% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased. The domestic commercial volume may decrease next week. [56][57] - Investment advice: Pay attention to whether the external market stabilizes [57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 16, the CEA closing price was 53.99 yuan/ton, a 2.58% decrease. The carbon market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [58] - Investment advice: The CEA will oscillate weakly in the short term [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of October 10, the US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The mid - term trend is bearish, but the short - term downward pressure is not large. The low temperature in November in the US and the insufficient European inventory support the near - term price. [60][61] - Investment advice: Wait and see [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On October 16, the PX price was weak. The domestic PX operating rate is stable, and the short - term performance will oscillate weakly following the oil price. [63][64] - Investment advice: The PX will oscillate weakly in the short - term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream of PTA is relatively calm, the polyester inventory is healthy, and the PTA supply - demand contradiction is not large. The short - term price fluctuation mainly comes from the oil price. [66] - Investment advice: The PTA will oscillate weakly in the short - term [67]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The domestic methanol production profit shows different performances, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The market focus is on import - related games. [69][70] - Investment advice: Wait and see [71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the styrene production decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The production profit has decreased, and the inventory accumulation speed may slow down. [72][73] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the short - position stop - loss rhythm, and the market will oscillate [74]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price is basically stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The pulp supply - demand is not good, and the upward space of the futures price is limited. [75][76] - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has both rises and falls. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is limited. The caustic soda market will oscillate in the short term. [77][78] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market will oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price fluctuates slightly. The operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply pressure is still large, and the demand is pessimistic. The PVC will oscillate weakly in the short term. [79][80][81] - Investment advice: The PVC will oscillate weakly in the short term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips is mostly stable, and some are slightly increased. The production reduction of bottle chips has achieved certain results, but the supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter. [82][83] - Investment advice: Pay attention to when the factories resume production and the supply - demand change [83]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 16, the soda ash inventory increased. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The soda ash price will be under pressure in the medium term. [84][85] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices in the medium term and pay attention to new capacity investment [85]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of October 16, the float glass inventory increased. The terminal demand improvement is limited, and the short - term inventory may continue to accumulate. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of long glass and short soda ash. [86][87] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of long glass and short soda ash [87]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The freight volume of the Port of Los Angeles is expected to decline in September and October. Some shipping companies have lowered their quotes, and some have issued price - increase letters in November. The 10 - contract settlement price is likely to be higher than 1100, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract after the callback. [88][89] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract after the callback [89].

Core Insights - Lithium Americas Corp. experienced a significant stock surge following the federal government's investment in the company [1] - J.P. Morgan cautions investors against becoming overly optimistic about the lithium production sector [1] Company Summary - The recent federal stake in Lithium Americas Corp. has positively impacted its stock performance [1] - The involvement of the federal government may indicate a strategic interest in the lithium market, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies [1] Industry Summary - The lithium production industry is currently under scrutiny, with analysts highlighting potential overvaluation risks despite recent positive developments [1] - J.P. Morgan's warning suggests that while there is optimism in the sector, investors should remain cautious about future market dynamics and pricing [1]