猫哥的分析从来都充满争议，但每一次预测都极其的精准，这就是猫哥经常强调的，股市总是反人性 的，当我们看到特朗普周末疯狂豁免苹果和英伟达的时候，还有谁敢否认，当前不是历史的拐点。 中国的强硬，让特朗普真的害怕了。一旦和中国完全脱钩，那美元将购买不到世界上超过80%的商品， 那这个时候的美元又有什么价值，所谓美国是最大的甲方，其实甲方从来都是中国，只是在某些阶段， 中国需要美元作为交易的媒介，当中国不再需要美元的时候，美国霸权必然荡然无存。 今年是港股超级牛市的开始，恒指25000只是一个起点，未来涨到30000，或者进一步涨到40000也未尝 没有可能，猫哥是相信会有那么一天的。 【走势复盘】 港股今天大幅上涨的原因有以下几方面： 1、周末美国那边单方面释放了很多善意，尤其对苹果和芯片的豁免，算是给这次进行了定调，美国实 际上已经输掉了这场战，那中国资产自然重新开始东升西落。 2、港交所强势领涨，这是中国资产即将腾飞的信号。瑞银表示，若中国ADR回流，估计将为港股带来 约190亿港元的增量日均成交，相当于2026财年预测总日均成交1,420亿港元的13%。 4、随着"对等关税"后情绪的极致宣泄暂告一段落，关税博 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美豁免部分产品"对等关税"，港股今日全天强势，三大指数均收涨逾2%，实现五连 涨。截止收盘，恒生指数涨2.4%或502.71点，报21417.4点，全日成交额2533.89亿港元；恒生国企指数 涨2.11%，报7965.81点；恒生科技指数涨2.34%，报5015.12点。 华泰证券指出，往前看，在第一波对等关税扰动发生后，坚定看好港股相对收益表现，原因是：1）产 业上，市场中业绩与关税敏感性较高的出口链及中游制造企业市值占比较低；2）科技企业盈利表现或 将持续支持港股行情演绎；3）外部冲击扰动下，市场或对内需政策存在较大预期。 蓝筹股表现 港交所(00388)表现亮眼。截至收盘，涨6.91%，报334港元，成交额57.31亿港元，贡献恒指43.24点。4 月13日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表网志表示，针对全球最新变化，已指示证监会和港交所做 好准备，若在海外上市的中概股希望回流，必须让香港成为它们首选的上市地。港交所亦会加紧做好在 东盟和中东市场的联系和推广工作，吸引更多当地优质企业来港上市，同时汇聚更多国际资金到港，进 一步提升香港国际金融中心的实力和地位。 其他蓝筹股方面，石药 ...

伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）旗下的机构经纪人预估系统（IBES）的数据显示，欧洲公司预计第一季 度收益将下降2.2%，而一周前预计的降幅为1.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a target price of HKD 435 for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) and an outperform rating, with earnings forecasts largely unchanged [1] Group 1: Revenue and Earnings Forecast - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 31% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.83 billion, with fee income (excluding investment income) projected to rise by 47% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 5.65 billion [1] - Profit is anticipated to grow by 36% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 4.05 billion [1] Group 2: Market Activity and Trading Performance - The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in Q1 2025 is expected to rise by 144% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 242.7 billion, with southbound ADT increasing by 255% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 109.9 billion [2] - The number of IPOs completed in Q1 2025 is 15, raising HKD 18.2 billion, which represents a 279% year-on-year increase but a 43% quarter-on-quarter decline [2] Group 3: Investment Income and Margin Trends - Investment income is projected to decline by 15% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1.14 billion, primarily due to high base effects from external equity investment returns [3] - The margin size may decrease quarter-on-quarter due to a decline in derivative trading margin ratios influenced by lower volatility [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation - The current forward P/E ratio for Hong Kong Exchanges is at historical relative lows, trading at the 36% and 24% percentiles of the last three and five years, respectively [4] - Anticipated policy developments and market reforms are expected to support trading activity and provide a catalyst for valuation recovery [4]

维持预测不变，今年约80只新股在港上市。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息，4月2日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布了中国内地及香港IPO市场2025年第一季 度回顾与前景展望。 全球新股市场在 2025年第一季度仍然十分活跃， 全球 10大新股的融资总额较去年同期增加18%。 随着完成两家与 AI相关的公司和一家猪肉生产商的上市项目，纳斯达克的新股数目最多，在全球的 交易所中融资额也居于首位。纽约证券交易所因有一家液化天然气出口商及一家国防与太空系统制造 商的上市项目支持而位居融资额第二位。东京证券交易所排名第三，港交所位列第四，深交所和上交 所排名第九和第十。 香港新股复苏 还将推动海外公司、科技公司上市 第一季度，香港新股发行数量同比上升 25%至15只，融资额同比上升287%至182亿港元。市场融资 总额主要来自1只大型和5只中型新股，其中两家为茶饮企业。同时，今年还有一家海外公司在香港 主板上市，融资额23.5亿港元。 香港市场的流动性、成交及估值均有所改善，并得到来自内地公司的中大型新股项目支持继续反弹。 这些公司希望能够寻求国际资金，助力 ...

- The Japanese ETF market is relatively mature, with 354 ETF products listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) as of the end of 2023, totaling 155 trillion yen in size, equivalent to approximately $1.10 trillion[4][107][109] - ETFs tracking Japanese equities dominate the market, accounting for 46% of the total number and 46% of the total size, followed by ETFs tracking overseas equities, which also represent 46% of the total size[108][109][113] - Among ETFs tracking Japanese equities, those linked to broad market indices hold the largest share, approximately 97% of the total size, with the TSE indices (TOPIX and Nikkei 225) being the most tracked, accounting for 61% and 31% of the total size, respectively[110][111][112] - Representative ETFs include the NEXT TOPIX ETF (managed by Nomura Asset Management) with a size of 23,745.81 billion yen ($159.02 billion), and the NEXT Nikkei 225 ETF (also managed by Nomura) with a size of 10,403.45 billion yen ($69.67 billion)[114] - Performance-wise, ETFs tracking the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indices have shown similar results over the past three years, with annualized returns of around 10% in yen terms. TOPIX ETFs are relatively more stable, with lower annualized volatility and maximum drawdown compared to Nikkei 225 ETFs[115][116]

2025年3月12日，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)发布公告，正式批准纳斯达克关于首次上市流动性要求的重大修订(于2024年12月30日提案)，新规将在SEC批 准后30天生效(预计2025年4月11日)。 此次调整是近20年来最严格的规则改革，核心在于提高企业IPO及OTC转板门槛，要求新股发行满足流通公众持股市值(MVU PHS)标准，封堵了"老股转 售"漏洞。 纳斯达克新规落地——IPO门槛全面提升，中小企业赴美上市面临更大挑战 *MVUPHS(Market Value of Unrestricted Publicly Held Shares)，即非限制性公开持有的股份市值，指不由公司高管/董事/10%股东持有的、且不受任何转 售限制的股份。 壹、纳斯达克旧规定 根据纳斯达克旧规定，企业在计算IPO上市规则里的最低流通股市值(MVUPHS)时，此时流通股定义为，除了在发行中出售的主要股份外，以前发行但已 注册转售的股份(转售股份)，且不是公司高管、董事或10%的股东持有，也会被计算为UPHS。此外，对于OTC市场转板的公司，原规则允许公司通过"包 销公开发行至少400万美元"以替代日均交易量(ADV)要求 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - HKEX reported record financial results for 2024, with revenue and other income increasing by 9% year-on-year, and a remarkable 31% increase in Q4 compared to the previous year [4][7] - Profit attributable to shareholders rose by 10% year-on-year, with Q4 profit showing a significant 46% increase [4][8] - Headline average daily turnover (ADT) reached $186.9 billion in Q4 2024, more than doubling from Q4 2023 [7][9] - Full-year profit after tax was $13.1 billion, with earnings per share at $10.32, both up 10% from 2023 [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cash, commodities, and ETP markets all recorded double-digit growth in average daily turnover and volume, while the derivatives market achieved record average daily volumes [5][10] - Derivatives trading volumes reached new highs, contributing significantly to revenue, with average daily volumes up 15% from 2023 [19][10] - The LME's chargeable average daily volume increased by 18% from 2023, reflecting strong performance in the commodities market [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Northbound and southbound Stock Connect volumes reached record quarterly highs, with northbound ADT up 39% year-on-year and southbound up 55% [17][10] - IPOs in 2024 raised a total of $88 billion from 71 new listings, with new economy companies accounting for over 80% of the capital raised [18][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - HKEX is focused on enhancing market resilience and competitiveness through strategic reforms, new products, and microstructure enhancements [5][14] - The company aims to modernize its infrastructure and enhance product offerings to ensure long-term market vibrancy and sustainability [14][30] - HKEX is exploring adjacent business opportunities, including the introduction of a virtual asset index series and a data marketplace [28][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2025, anticipating continued macro uncertainties but renewed interest in trading and IPOs [29][30] - The company plans to implement a minimum spread reduction and explore a shorter settlement cycle (T+1) to enhance market competitiveness [66][70] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining cost discipline while investing in talent and technology to support sustainable growth [72][75] Other Important Information - The Board declared a second interim dividend of $4.9 per share, bringing the total full-year dividend to $9.26 per share, up 10% from 2023 [8][10] - Operating expenses increased by 6% year-on-year, primarily due to higher staff and IT costs, but the company maintained a strong EBITDA margin [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on IPO pipeline and secondary listings - Management noted a strong trend in A-share companies pursuing dual listings in Hong Kong, with around 30 companies already in the pipeline [39][40] - Concerns about SAFE's scrutiny on IPO proceeds were addressed, with management confident in the ongoing encouragement for offshore investments [40][41] Question: Listing requirements and post-listing obligations - Management confirmed ongoing reviews of listing eligibility and compliance requirements to attract more companies [49][50] - Continuous improvements to the listing regime are aimed at maintaining competitiveness [50][52] Question: Effective tax rate and depreciation - Management indicated that the effective tax rate may rise to a minimum of 15% due to BEPS regulations, impacting financials [55][56] - Depreciation and amortization are expected to increase with the launch of new systems in 2025 [58][59] Question: 2025 strategy and operational expenses - Plans for 2025 include enhancing market vibrancy, future-proofing technology, and exploring adjacent business opportunities [64][70] - Management emphasized maintaining cost discipline while investing in talent and IT systems [72][75] Question: Data-related business growth - Management acknowledged the potential for growth in data-related business and the importance of developing a data marketplace [81][84] - The focus remains on diversifying revenue streams while maintaining a strong core business [81][84]

来源｜中国基金报 记者｜泰勒 纳斯达克交易所，加入了延长交易时间的队伍。 纳斯达克计划推出24小时股票交易 迎合全球投资者需求 3月7日晚间，纳斯达克公司计划在其股票交易所推出24小时交易服务，以满足全球市场对美国股票日益增长的需求。这一举措标志着又一家交易所 加入了延长交易时段的行列。 据纳斯达克总裁塔尔·科恩（Tal Cohen）透露，该公司计划在每周五个交易日内提供全天候交易，并预计在2026年下半年正式启动。这一计划仍需 获得监管批准，并与行业其他参与者协调一致。科恩在LinkedIn发布的帖子中提到，纳斯达克将积极推进该计划的落地。 这一举措紧随其他交易所的类似计划。Cboe Global Markets上个月表示，计划将其股票交易时间延长至每周五天24小时，前提是获得监管批准。 此外，纽约证券交易所去年10月也提交了申请，计划在工作日提供22小时交易服务。 为何这么做？ 科恩在文章中指出， 近年来，散户投资者的积极参与极大地改变了全球投资格局。主要地区经济体的财富积累降低了市场准入门槛，全球投资者渴 望共享经济增长红利，使他们比以往任何时候都更加关注美国市场。 科恩指出，来自不同时区的散户投资者对 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is prepared to maintain interest rates unchanged to differentiate between the "signal and noise" of the economic policies under the Trump administration [1][4] - Powell stated that despite uncertainties, the current U.S. economic situation remains good, with a stable job market, and that the Fed can afford to wait for clearer conditions before adjusting policy rates [4][5] - The February non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in the U.S. job market, with an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below market expectations, and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [6][7] Group 2 - Nasdaq plans to offer extended trading hours five days a week, pending regulatory approval and industry coordination, with a target launch in the second half of 2026 [8] - Nasdaq's president emphasized the importance of building investor confidence in U.S. capital markets while implementing the 24/5 trading model [8] - Cboe Global Markets announced plans to extend trading hours to 24 hours on weekdays, awaiting regulatory approval, while the New York Stock Exchange submitted its application for 22-hour trading on weekdays [8]