Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that the central rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) may continue to decline in July, and the necessity to restart government bond trading in the short term is reduced [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity Outlook - The survey involved 20 market institutions, with 12 expressing an optimistic view on the overall liquidity in July, indicating no liquidity gap [1] - Six institutions assessed the liquidity as neutral, estimating a liquidity gap of less than 1 trillion yuan [1] - Two institutions predicted a potential tightening phase, with a liquidity gap ranging from 1 trillion to 2.06 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market Expectations - Multiple market institutions anticipate that the central rate of interbank CDs may continue to decline in July [1] - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is expected to take time, as the market adjusts to the influx of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks [1] - A bullish trend in the bond market is anticipated, suggesting that early positioning in potential investment varieties for incremental funds may be a favorable strategy [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced several measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect program, including expanding the range of participating institutions for southbound trading to include brokerages, insurance companies, wealth management, and asset management firms [1] - The European Union approved Bulgaria to adopt the euro starting January 1, 2026, making it the 21st member of the Eurozone, with a fixed exchange rate of 1.95583 leva per euro [1] - The Australian Federal Reserve unexpectedly maintained the key interest rate at 3.85%, emphasizing the need for further observation to confirm the achievement of inflation targets and to monitor global uncertainty risks [2] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.37% to 44,240.76 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 6,225.52 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.03% to 20,418.46 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.95% to $3,311.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.06% to $36.93 per ounce [4] - The main contract for West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 0.37% to $68.18 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.62% to $70.01 per barrel [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Russia and has approved more defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine [2] - Japan reported a record high of 16,943 people hospitalized for heatstroke in June, the highest since records began in 2010 [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission of China announced a new investment of 10 billion yuan to support employment initiatives, aiming to create jobs for 310,000 people [6] Group 2 - France's President Macron is on a state visit to the UK, marking the first visit by a French president since 2008 and the first by an EU leader since Brexit [4] - The Chinese logistics sector saw a significant increase in e-commerce logistics index, reaching a new high of 111.8 points in June [12] - The Chinese government aims to increase the availability of childcare services, targeting 4.5 childcare spots for every 1,000 people by 2025 [8] Group 3 - The China Securities Association is conducting a comprehensive survey of the securities industry to prepare for the upcoming "China Securities Industry Development Report (2025)" [10] - GAC Fiat Chrysler has declared bankruptcy due to an inability to repay debts and lack of assets to cover liabilities [24] - The stock market saw significant movements, with Intel shares rising over 7% while major banks experienced declines [28]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced new measures to enhance the interconnection between mainland and Hong Kong financial markets, further solidifying Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and a hub for offshore RMB business [1][2]. Group 1: New Measures for Financial Market Interconnection - The PBOC is optimizing the "Southbound Bond Connect" mechanism to facilitate more domestic investors in accessing the offshore bond market, expanding the range of eligible investors to include securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions [1]. - The offshore repurchase business mechanism under the Bond Connect will be optimized to enhance liquidity management for foreign investors, allowing for a broader range of tradable currencies including USD, EUR, and HKD, and simplifying operational processes [2][3]. - The "Swap Connect" mechanism will be improved to better meet investors' interest rate risk management needs, with plans to expand the number of quoting firms and adjust daily trading limits [2]. Group 2: Implementation Timeline and Specifics - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has announced that the optimized measures for offshore RMB bond repurchase will officially start on August 25, 2025, which includes allowing collateral bonds to be reused during the repurchase period and supporting foreign currency settlements [2][3].

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs of 25% on South Korea and Japan, and 30%-40% on other Asian and African countries, with the effective date postponed to August 1, allowing more time for negotiations [1][2] - Market reactions to the tariff announcements have been muted, with major U.S. indices declining less than 1% and Asian markets showing gains, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the S&P 500 index, reflecting expectations of quicker and deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts of 6400, 6600, and 6900 points for the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if negotiations do not progress, tariffs could revert to levels seen in April, emphasizing the need for maximum pressure in trade talks [2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that agreements with other countries may be reached before August 1, with potential scenarios including tactical tariff increases if negotiations stall [2][3] - Concerns about U.S. debt sustainability persist, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that a recent bill could increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034 [5][6] Group 3 - Global investors are increasingly considering hedging against dollar risk, with European investors finding better yields in local bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries after accounting for currency risk [6][7] - The trend of increasing gold holdings among central banks and institutional investors continues, as gold is viewed as a hedge against dollar depreciation and geopolitical risks [8][9] - China's central bank has been accumulating gold, with reserves reaching approximately 2298.55 tons, indicating a sustained interest in gold as a strategic asset [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic governance paradigm is undergoing profound evolution, characterized by the shift from a single power structure to a more collaborative and shared governance model, emphasizing multilateral participation and institutional restructuring [6][10]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance Changes - The current global economic governance is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and the acceleration of digital and green transformations, leading to a weakening of global growth momentum [6][12]. - The restructuring of financial order is a significant manifestation of adjustments in global governance, highlighting the need for a diversified sovereign currency coexistence and orderly competition [7][12]. - The role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) is evolving from crisis response to regular operation, enhancing their integration into trade, financing, and reserve systems [7][21]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Governance - China is transitioning from a rule-taker to a rule-maker in global economic governance, promoting high-level opening-up and aligning with international high-standard trade rules [8][12]. - The country is developing a comprehensive policy framework around digital payments, green finance, and data regulation, aiming to create replicable international governance solutions [8][12]. - China's commitment to multilateralism and shared development is evident in its efforts to enhance institutional compatibility and participation depth within the global governance system [7][8]. Group 3: Future Governance Paradigms - The future of global economic governance remains undefined, with key variables including the restructuring of multilateral mechanisms, the rule-based advancement of technological governance, and the diversification of the international monetary system [8][10]. - Balancing national sovereignty with global cooperation, efficiency with fairness, and risk prevention with innovation will be crucial for the effectiveness and sustainability of future governance frameworks [8][12].

日本首相石破茂周二表示将继续与美谈判，寻求达成互利贸易协议。此前特朗普宣布自8月1日起对日本 商品加征25%关税。特朗普周一虽向贸易伙伴发出大幅增税通知，但暗示若各国提出可接受方案或将推 迟实施。 据报道，韩国贸易部长吕翰九在华盛顿与美国商务部长卢特尼克会晤时，还要求美方降低韩国企业在汽 车、钢铁等领域的关税。 财务大臣加藤胜信周二在记者会上表示，目前暂无计划与美国财政部长贝森特就汇率问题进行磋商。 日本未能在特朗普"对等关税"临时暂停令7月9日到期前达成协议，其谈判重点本是取消汽车25%关税 ——这是其出口依赖型经济的支柱产业。随着7月20日参议院选举临近，石破茂强调日本不会为尽早达 成协议作出"轻易让步"。近期民调显示执政联盟可能失去参议院多数席位，分析师称这将使贸易谈判复 杂化。 美国关税加剧日本经济困境，该国一季度经济已现萎缩。5月实际工资创近两年最大降幅，政府周一更 作出近五年来最悲观经济评估。SMBC日兴证券预计25%关税将导致2026年3月截止的财年经济增长减 少0.26个百分点。 日本综合研究所分析师藤本和树指出："虽避免最坏情况，但25%关税仍将使出口企业利润骤降25%"， 并警告"若企业利 ...

Core Viewpoint - International institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts for China, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy as a reflection of policy effectiveness, market performance, and growth potential [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Resilience - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year to reach 5.2%, with further upward potential, having raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also adjusted their GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, increasing them by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [2]. - The shift from export-driven growth to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with the impact of consumption policies [2][5]. Emerging Sector Development Potential - Foreign institutions emphasize the potential in technology innovation and market opportunities, with China positioned to lead in global high-tech competition, particularly in artificial intelligence [4]. - The strong resilience of the Chinese market is attracting global enterprises, as they plan to increase trade and manufacturing in China despite uncertainties in international trade [4]. Positive Changes in Consumption - The retail sector shows resilience, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment, driven by consumption policies [5]. - The increase in retail sales in May, particularly in specific categories, contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [5]. Sustained Economic Development - Recent economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI and logistics index, signal a positive trend in the Chinese economy [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue its moderately loose monetary policy and accelerate fiscal spending to boost domestic demand [7]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards is seen as crucial for activating the economy's internal momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is emerging as a significant financial hub amidst global market volatility, driven by capital inflows and the need for alternative financing options due to the ongoing tariff wars and the depreciation of the US dollar [2][23]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index rose over 20% following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," while the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong exchange rate of 7.75 against the US dollar [1]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from mainland China into the Hong Kong stock market exceeded 710 billion HKD, significantly higher than previous years [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw a 700% year-on-year increase in funds raised, driven by international capital [2]. Group 2: Currency and Financial Stability - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, leading to significant capital outflows from the US [3][23]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened multiple times to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, injecting approximately 129 billion HKD into the financial system [5][10]. - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate fluctuated between strong and weak zones, prompting discussions on the benefits and drawbacks of the linked exchange rate system [5][39]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Investment Trends - Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2029, Hong Kong will surpass Switzerland as the largest cross-border wealth management center globally [4]. - Wealth management revenues in Hong Kong increased significantly, with HSBC reporting a 14% rise in wholesale banking income in the first quarter [17][30]. - The average wealth of adults in mainland China is projected to continue growing, enhancing cross-border investment potential [32]. Group 4: RMB and Trade Financing - Hong Kong is the largest offshore RMB business hub, handling about 80% of global offshore RMB payments [18]. - Cross-border RMB settlements between China and ASEAN countries grew by 35% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards RMB financing [22]. - The demand for RMB in trade financing is increasing, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" in international trade [26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The financial landscape in Hong Kong is expected to evolve with increased focus on offshore RMB markets and digital financial infrastructure [38][45]. - The capital from the Middle East is becoming a significant source of wealth for Hong Kong, with sovereign wealth funds projected to grow substantially [37]. - Hong Kong's unique position as a "super connector" between China and international markets is likely to enhance its financial stability and growth prospects [46].