（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 北京时间1月5日早间，金银开盘直线拉升，截至7：20左右，现货黄金向上突破4366美元，涨超0.8%， 现货白银涨近0.7%，COMEX白银大涨超2.5%。美油、布油双双短线跳水。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military's surprise operation in Venezuela has heightened global geopolitical tensions, impacting various sectors in the A-share market, particularly those related to defense, oil, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [1][3]. Group 1: Military Operation Details - The U.S. military operation, named "Absolute Resolve," involved over 150 aircraft and was executed within three hours, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife [3]. - The operation was meticulously planned over several months, with significant military assets deployed, including F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, and B-1 bombers [3]. Group 2: Impact on A-share Market - The conflict is expected to cause significant movements in five key sectors: defense and military, oil services and transportation, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [4]. - Historical trends indicate that military conflicts typically lead to increased orders and positive sentiment in the defense sector, with China's military budget growing at around 7% annually [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - **Defense and Military**: Likely to benefit from increased orders due to heightened geopolitical tensions [4]. - **Oil Services and Transportation**: Venezuela's oil infrastructure may be damaged, leading to higher global oil prices and increased demand for oil services and transportation [4]. - **Lithium Resources**: The conflict may halt lithium mining operations in Venezuela, exacerbating supply shortages as global demand for electric vehicles rises [4]. - **Gold**: Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold prices are expected to rise amid increased global uncertainty [4]. - **Supply Chain Security**: Disruptions in Venezuela's mining operations could accelerate domestic production in China for critical materials [4]. Group 4: Market Movements and Stock Performance - Leading stocks in relevant sectors have already shown signs of movement, with increased trading volumes and price changes noted prior to the conflict [5]. - Key players include military contractors like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and lithium producers such as Ganfeng Lithium, which have demonstrated strong business fundamentals [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Maduro and his wife, leading to a national emergency declaration and calls for armed resistance [1] - Venezuela, holding the world's largest oil reserves (3,040 million barrels), saw its heavy crude oil exports interrupted, causing Brent crude prices to spike by $3-5 per barrel [1] - If a pro-U.S. regime is established, companies like Chevron could potentially increase production from 1 million barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The energy market is expected to experience significant volatility, with immediate impacts on oil prices and potential long-term shifts depending on political outcomes in Venezuela [2][3] - Gold prices rose by 2.5% to $4,375 per ounce within a week, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The A-share market displayed a "defensive first" characteristic, with energy-related sectors gaining investor interest [3] Group 3 - Benefiting sectors include oil and gas extraction, gold, military industry, and oil transportation, with specific companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Shandong Gold being highlighted for their potential gains [1] - The aviation sector is under pressure due to rising fuel costs, which could impact profitability [1][4] - The chemical sector faces challenges as cost transmission in the PTA/polyester supply chain is hindered by rising oil prices [4] Group 4 - Short-term trading opportunities exist in the oil and gold sectors, but caution is advised regarding profit-taking [4] - Military orders are expected to increase, with companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation being key players in this space [4] - The potential for guerrilla warfare supported by Russia could prolong oil price volatility, impacting market stability [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong start in 2026, with 385 stocks rising over 100% in 2025, including 14 stocks that increased more than 10 times, indicating a bullish trend [1][2] - Notable high-performing stocks include Base Jinbiao Group with a 41.64 times increase, Beihai Kangcheng with over 18 times increase, and Zhu Feng Gold benefiting from rising gold prices with over 12 times increase [1] - The number of "red bottom stocks," which are stocks priced over 100 HKD, increased significantly from 22 at the beginning of 2025 to 45 by the end of the year, reflecting a growing recognition of quality leading enterprises [2] Group 2 - The increase in "red bottom stocks" indicates a shift towards valuing high market capitalization and high liquidity assets, with major companies like Tencent, Ctrip, and NIO leading this trend [2] - The concentration of "red bottom stocks" in sectors such as internet technology, finance, healthcare, and consumer goods suggests a reassessment of long-term value by the market [2] - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities and Huatai Securities express optimism for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, highlighting technology as a key investment theme driven by multiple favorable factors [3]

WTI原油： 消息面：美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国对南美某国发起军事行动，并对其领导人实施抓捕，引发全球地缘 政治动荡，市场关注度较高，但因处于周末休市时间，国内外原油期货盘面没有交易，接下来市场将密 切关注周一及以后的原油走势。基本面美国原油产量维持高位，OPEC+产量小幅提高，全球总石油库 存高位，美国商业库存偏低，但炼厂开工率持续提升至高位后，库存转移至成品油持续累库。总体看， 原油供需仍偏向过剩，但美国、委内瑞拉地缘升级，关注短期对原油的利多影响。技术面区间震荡偏 弱。 技术面：技术面来看，日线摆动图表显示原油主趋势为下行，但市场动能正逐步走高。若油价突破 58.88美元，主趋势将转为上行；若跌破56.65美元，市场动能则会转向下行。若油价能站稳57.60美元上 方，意味着日内买方力量进场。上行压力增强的情况下，轻质原油期货有望测试另一关键50%回撤位 58.62美元，以及作为长期趋势指标的50日移动平均线58.77美元。若油价未能突破57.60美元，则释放出 卖方进场信号，价格可能下探56.86美元至56.38美元的次级回撤区间。若该区间缺乏逆势买方支撑，油 价或将跌破56.38美元，届时55.61美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and U.S. interest rate expectations on gold prices, with recent military actions in Venezuela and protests in Iran contributing to market dynamics [1][2] - Gold prices closed at $4,332.45 per ounce, up 0.43%, with a weekly high of $4,402.05 and a low of $4,309.62, indicating a volatile market influenced by external factors [1] - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, is expected to further escalate geopolitical tensions, potentially affecting global markets [1] Group 2 - The Iranian currency, the rial, has reached a historic low amid economic crises and nationwide protests, which have resulted in civilian casualties, indicating a deteriorating economic situation that could influence regional stability [2] - In the context of the Russia-Ukraine situation, changes in Russia's stance on peace negotiations may also affect market sentiment and geopolitical stability [2] - Following a period of low retail demand for gold in India and China due to high international prices, a recent decline in gold prices has led to a recovery in retail demand, suggesting a responsive market [2]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

在具体投资方向上，晨星首席市场策略师David Sekera提出，2026年市场的关注点可能转向应用人工智 能技术提升效率与营收的企业。他列举了包括高乐氏、亿滋国际在内的公司作为例子。Carson Research 首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick则预计，尽管劳动力市场存在疲软迹象，但2026年美国经济表现可能超出 预期，大宗商品领域的繁荣有望延续。他建议在投资组合中增加大宗商品的配置。 双线资本首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克因准确预测2025年黄金价格大幅上涨而被列入榜单。他在去年3月就 预测金价将超过每盎司4000美元，远高于当时华尔街多数策略师约3000美元的上限预期。冈拉克认为， 投资者对地缘政治动荡和政府债务增长的担忧，支撑了黄金作为"真正货币资产"的吸引力。 与此同时，其他机构也发布了针对2026年的经济预测，显示出不同的侧重点。先锋领航集团经济学家 Joseph Davis的团队预测，2026年美国GDP将增长约2.25%，主要由投资增长和"大而美"法案中的财政刺 激措施驱动。该团队预计就业市场将反弹，失业率从2025年11月的4.6%降至4.2%，但核心PCE物价指数 年增率可能保持在2.6% ...

2026投资主线浮现！中概股狂涨4%百度飙15%，黄金跳水藏玄机？ 凌晨两点刷手机的股民都炸了！一边是纳斯达克中国金龙指数踩着4%的涨幅狂飙，百度单日怒涨15%，中概股集体飘红像过年；另一边是黄金突然"跳 水"，国际金价单日跌超4.5%，国内金饰克价回调近50元，刚入手金条的朋友直呼"心跳加速"。 而且它的商业化已经跑通了，除了中国移动的大单，还在互联网、金融、能源等行业打开了市场，核心团队商业化能力被机构认可 。市场普遍认为，分拆 上市后，昆仑芯能获得独立融资，百度也能更专注于大模型、自动驾驶等核心应用，相当于"一拆两赢"，这也是资金疯狂追捧的关键原因。 黄金突然跳水：三大官方原因砸盘 这边中概股狂欢，那边黄金却迎来"降温"。国际黄金期货2025年12月29日单日跌幅超4.5%，一度跌到每盎司4346美元，国内金饰价格也跟着回调，周大福、 老凤祥等品牌克价从1400元跌到1350元左右，单克回调近50元。 原因主要有三个，每一个都能在权威渠道查到：一是获利回吐，2025年黄金全年涨幅超70%，不少投资者见好就收，1月首周就有50亿元多头资金平仓离 场；二是美元反弹，美元指数涨到103左右，而历史数据显示，美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant financial implications following the recent political upheaval in Venezuela, particularly focusing on the fate of a vast cryptocurrency "shadow reserve" established to circumvent long-term sanctions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Assets and Estimates - Venezuela is estimated to control digital assets worth up to $60 billion, accumulated through complex channels involving gold swaps and oil trade over several years [2][3]. - The accumulation of these assets began in 2018 when Venezuela exported 73.2 tons of gold valued at approximately $2.7 billion, with potential massive appreciation if converted to Bitcoin during low price periods [3]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency and Oil Trade - Bitcoin and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) play crucial roles in Venezuela's financial transactions, with projections suggesting that by December 2025, around 80% of the country's oil revenue will be received in USDT [3]. - The Venezuelan government has established a complex financial network to convert national resources into cryptocurrencies, utilizing intermediaries and mixing services to obscure the origins of funds [4]. Group 3: Key Individuals and Their Roles - Alex Saab is identified as a central figure in the shadow financial system, having been appointed by Maduro as the head of the Venezuelan International Investment Center and previously serving as an informant for U.S. law enforcement [5]. - The control of the private keys to these digital assets may not rest with a single individual but could involve a multi-signature mechanism designed by Swiss lawyers, distributing keys among trusted parties across different jurisdictions [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Following the U.S. military action in Venezuela, market analysts suggest that while the country has significant oil reserves, its current production levels are low, limiting immediate impacts on global oil prices [6]. - The focus of market dynamics is shifting from concerns over supply disruptions to expectations regarding the recovery of Venezuela's production capacity and the re-entry of U.S. energy companies into the market [6].