2025 年 4 月 PMI 点评 4 月 PMI：盘点冲击信号 2025 年 04 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com 与此同时，4 月进口也受到较大冲击。4 月 PMI 进口指数环比降幅达 4.1pct，这 一降幅为 2020 年 5 月以来的最大降幅，同时也超过了"贸易冲突 1.0"时期 2.6pct 的最大降幅。 ➢ 维度二（间接影响）：供需两端同步放缓。4 月代表内需的 PMI 新订单指数 为 49.2%（环比-2.6pct），代表生产的 PMI 生产指数为 49.8%（环比-2.8pct）。 两个指标同时降至荣枯线之下，成为 4 月制造业 PMI 的两大拖累项，外部风险 的加剧对国内产需也造成一定负面影响。 ➢ 维度三（企业行为影响）：主动去库后的价格下跌。随着需求的走弱，企业 面对未来不确定性，更倾向于通过降价等方式加快对库存的"清理"，4 月 PMI 产成品库存指数下降 0.7pct 至 47.3%、同时 PMI 生产经营预期指数下降 1.7pct 均佐证了这一点。外部冲击下企业的主动去库行为导致 4 月 PMI 出厂价格指数 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.0% in April, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical point [2][6] - Both production index and new orders index showed a decline, recorded at 49.8% and 49.2% respectively, down 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained strong at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0% [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating expansion [4][6] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, with certain industries like air transport and telecommunications showing strong growth [4] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 51.9%, despite a decline of 1.5 percentage points, and civil engineering construction saw an increase to 60.9% [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index was recorded at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, yet still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in production activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, at 49.8% and 50.4% respectively [6] - The overall economic output has been expanding since January 2023, despite external environmental changes impacting the manufacturing PMI [6]

一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点，表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 供应商配送时间指数为50.2%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续加快。 二、中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.4%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业继续保持扩张。 分行 ...

(二)高技术制造业持续向好。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平， 其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品 行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不 同程度回落。 (三)价格指数有所下降。受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比上月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制造业市场价格总体 水平有所下降。 4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点，表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 | | | | | | | | | 单位：% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新出口 | 进口 | 采购量 | 主要原材 ...

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, Wuhan's GDP reached 475.941 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [1] - The growth rate is higher than last year's 5.2% and aligns with the national growth rate, ranking Wuhan among the top in major sub-provincial cities [4] - Key economic indicators such as retail sales, fixed asset investment, and foreign trade all showed significant growth, with industrial investment increasing by 18.2% [4][6] Industrial Investment - Investment in the automotive manufacturing sector surged by nearly 40% year-on-year [1] - High-tech manufacturing saw a 20.1% increase in value added, contributing significantly to industrial growth [6] - Investment in computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew by 24.2%, while automotive manufacturing investment rose by 39.3% [4] Innovation and Technology - The production of industrial robots increased by 120%, reflecting a strong push in innovation [6] - High-tech industry investment grew by 19.6%, with high-tech manufacturing up by 17.4% and high-tech services by 32.9% [7] - The demand for computing power is rapidly increasing, as indicated by a 9.5% rise in electricity consumption in high-tech manufacturing [9] Consumer Market - Retail sales of social consumer goods reached 241.021 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [17] - Smart home appliance sales surged by 164.1%, indicating a shift towards intelligent consumption [18] - The tourism sector saw 88 million visitors in Q1, generating over 100 billion yuan in revenue, with cultural and artistic sectors experiencing over 80% growth [13][19] Future Outlook - Wuhan is focusing on transforming its economic structure and enhancing its competitive advantages to achieve sustainable growth [20] - The city aims to maintain strategic determination and confidence to tackle challenges in the second quarter, which is crucial for meeting annual targets [20]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by Tsinghua University economist Li Daokui to issue 1 trillion yuan in consumer subsidies has sparked debate, with supporters calling it a "precise market rescue" and opponents questioning its effectiveness in addressing fundamental issues in the economy [1]. Group 1: Subsidy Mechanism and Multiplicative Effect - Li Daokui's logic is based on the "subsidy multiplier effect," suggesting that a 1 yuan fiscal subsidy could stimulate 4 yuan in consumer spending, with a potential 200 billion yuan investment leading to a total consumption increase of 1 trillion yuan [3]. - Historical data from cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai indicate that consumption vouchers have achieved a multiplier effect of 3-4 times, with even higher effects in less developed areas [3]. Group 2: Challenges to the Subsidy Logic - Consumer willingness has a "ceiling," as evidenced by a 13%-14% year-on-year decline in retail sales in Beijing and Shanghai in 2024, indicating that subsidies may only be used for necessities rather than stimulating large-scale consumption [4]. - There is a structural imbalance where high-income groups have low marginal propensity to consume, while low-income groups are constrained by savings and debt, leading to a situation where subsidies may convert into savings rather than spending [4]. Group 3: Consumption Decline in Major Cities - In 2024, retail sales in Beijing and Shanghai fell by 2.8%-3.1%, despite a 6.8% growth in service consumption, highlighting three paradoxes: high income does not equate to high consumption, service consumption upgrades are misaligned with traditional retail data, and online consumption is replacing offline without adequate digital transformation [6]. Group 4: Policy Tools for Stimulating Consumption - The debate on stimulating consumption has led to differing opinions on policy tools: direct cash payments are effective in the short term but may lead to inflation, while increasing income is a long-term solution that takes time to implement [9]. - A combination of short-term vouchers and long-term income increases is suggested, including targeted subsidies for durable goods and tax reforms to expand the middle-income group [10]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include precise distribution of consumption vouchers, addressing barriers in service consumption, promoting "lifestyle entrepreneurship," and enhancing digital infrastructure for offline merchants [12]. Group 6: Conclusion on Subsidy Effectiveness - While subsidies are not a panacea, they may be a necessary step in transitioning China's economy from investment-driven to consumption-driven, with the potential to alleviate inventory pressures and boost market confidence in the short term [14].

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, the economy of Yuzhong County showed a positive trend with a GDP growth of 8.1% year-on-year, ranking first among the three counties and five districts in Lanzhou [1] - The primary industry added value increased by 7.1%, surpassing Lanzhou by 0.8 percentage points, with orderly progress in facility agriculture and stable growth in livestock production [3] - The industrial sector experienced rapid growth, with an increase of 18.6% in industrial added value, contributing 54.4% to economic growth, supported by strong performance in electricity, chemicals, and non-ferrous industries [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment grew by 11% year-on-year, with significant increases in equipment and tool purchases by 30.8% and construction investment by 14.3% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods maintained growth at 3.8%, with higher growth in large-scale retail compared to smaller outlets, and notable increases in sales across various sectors [4] - Urban residents' disposable income growth outpaced national, provincial, and city averages, indicating a positive trend in income levels [4] Future Outlook - Yuzhong County plans to implement policies to enhance economic development, focusing on major project construction and consumer spending initiatives to promote high-quality economic growth [5]

Group 1 - The report analyzes Trump's "tariff war" as a strategic maneuver that significantly impacts the global economic landscape, particularly affecting China and the U.S. economy [1][16] - Trump's psychological bottom line includes a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and a focus on curbing China's rise while integrating North America [3][20] - The report highlights that Trump's unpredictable behavior serves as a strategy to maintain negotiation leverage, creating uncertainty for other economies [4][22] Group 2 - Different economies respond variably to the U.S. tariff war, categorized into resistance and concession, with China and Canada showing strong resistance while others like Mexico and Vietnam are forced to concede [6][26] - China is identified as the most resolute in its countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, demonstrating both capability and determination to retaliate effectively [27][28] - The report suggests that Canada has effectively countered U.S. tariffs due to its economic ties with the U.S., while Mexico's response has been more subdued due to its dependent economic status [35][36] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for China to build alliances and expand its market presence to enhance its negotiating power against the U.S. [10][30] - It discusses the potential for China to fill the market void left by the U.S. as it adopts a more isolationist trade policy, positioning itself as a global consumer market leader [10][31] - The analysis concludes that the ongoing tariff situation is unsustainable for the U.S., with potential adjustments in tariff rates likely as negotiations progress [31][32]

广发宏观周度述评（第12期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-11期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 对中期影响深远的三个政策线索。 4月25日政治局会议明确指出"外部冲击影响加大"及"要强化底线思维"，并部署了一系列稳增长具体举措。从"加紧实 施"这一表述来看，目前稳增长具有一定的紧迫性，后续政策节奏有望加快。 值得注意的是，除了短期视角，本轮政策稳增长举措中也展现出一些新的中期线索。如去年底中央经济工作会议指出的，"实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规 律性认识"；以及3月5日国新办吹风会解读政府工作报告时指出的，"充分体现了9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创新"。 线索一：服务类消费可能成为新的风口。3月5日国新办发布会指出本轮稳增长"打破了消费是慢变量的常规"；而从本次政治局会议精神来看，政策侧重点可能已从 商品消费进一步扩展向服务类消费。在耐用消费品的政策红利释放之后，服务类消费空间更大。[1]2024年全国居民人均服务性消费支出占居民人均消费支出比重 达46.1%，而且部分商品消费是服务消费的场景带动的。要发展服务类消费，那么重要的不仅是有形商品创新，还包括应用场景和商业模式创新。[2]如《求 ...