2025 世界机器人大会开幕，雅下水电站带动工程机械需求提升 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 32 周（2025.8.4-2025.8.10） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 2025 年 8 月 12 日 行业研究 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -30% ...

Core Insights - The mechanical industry in China has shown resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% in value added for enterprises above designated size, particularly in the automotive and electrical machinery sectors, which achieved double-digit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of the end of June, the number of enterprises in the mechanical industry reached 136,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous year, accounting for 26.2% of the national industrial total [2]. - The total assets of the mechanical industry amounted to 40.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, representing 22.0% of the national industrial total, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [2]. - In the first half of the year, 84 out of 122 monitored major products saw a year-on-year increase in output, representing 68.9% of the total, which is a 7.4 percentage point improvement from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive market maintained a positive trend in the first half of the year, with production and sales reaching 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [2][3]. - The improvement in domestic demand, supported by effective policies, has played a crucial role in the overall growth of the automotive market [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The mechanical industry has made significant breakthroughs in major technical equipment, enhancing the safety of industrial chains and supporting national major engineering projects [3]. - The clean energy equipment sector has demonstrated strong development resilience and innovation vitality, with wind power generation equipment output increasing by over 70% in the first half of the year [4]. Group 4: Green Transition - The mechanical industry is accelerating its green transformation, with a focus on technological innovation and sustainable development, becoming a key player in global clean energy development [4]. - The share of wind and solar power generation installations in new power generation capacity reached 89.9% [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The mechanical industry is expected to face a more complex and severe environment in the second half of the year, with ongoing challenges and difficulties, but the foundation for stable growth remains [5][6]. - The market for new energy vehicles is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, with sales expected to exceed those of the first half of the year, driven by favorable macro policies and structural adjustments [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of in-depth research calls focused on various aspects of robotics and related technologies, highlighting investment opportunities and industry trends in the mechanical sector [4][5]. Group 1: Robotics and Technology - The research series includes discussions on humanoid robots, their cognitive capabilities, and sensory technologies such as 3D vision and tactile sensors [4]. - Key topics also cover the mechanical components of robots, including efficient motors, precision reducers, and bearings, which are essential for enhancing robotic functionality [4]. - The series emphasizes the growing market for exoskeleton robots and companion robots, indicating a shift towards advanced wearable technology and AI companionship [4]. Group 2: Industrial Applications - The research addresses the logistics sector, focusing on how robotics can enhance supply chain efficiency and the demand for specialized robots in safety and unique operational scenarios [5]. - The article discusses the commercial aerospace sector, highlighting the benefits of high-density rocket launches and the interdependence of rocket and satellite supply chains [5]. - It also explores the potential of controlled nuclear fusion and its impact on capital expenditure in upstream sectors driven by downstream demand [5]. Group 3: Equipment and Machinery - The article reviews the recovery expectations in the tool industry, suggesting a resilient market outlook [5]. - It analyzes the engineering machinery sector, discussing the evolution of domestic sales over the past thirty years and the future trends in electric and unmanned applications [5]. - The research highlights the upcoming boom in mining automation, indicating a shift from technical feasibility to commercial viability [5].

Group 1 - The implementation of a 20% "reciprocal tariff" by the US on Taiwan has led to significant distress in various industries, particularly in machine tools, molds, plastic products, and electronic components, collectively referred to as the "four major disasters" [1][2] - The average tariff rate for Taiwanese products exported to the US was previously 2.4%, but with the new tariffs, rates for specific products have surged, such as machine tools increasing from 4.7% to 24.7% [2][3] - The Taiwanese government estimates that between 42,000 to 59,000 jobs in industrial sectors will be affected, with at least 40,000 families facing economic hardship due to potential layoffs and reduced working hours [2][4] Group 2 - The Taiwanese machinery industry, which exported $14.921 billion in equipment in the first half of the year, is particularly vulnerable, with exports to the US amounting to $3.97 billion [4] - The recent tariff increases have led to a significant decline in competitiveness for Taiwanese exports, especially in the machine tool sector, which has seen a 30% reduction in competitiveness due to the combined effects of tariffs and currency appreciation [3][4] - There is a growing concern that other sectors, including pharmaceuticals, may face even steeper tariffs, potentially reaching 150% to 250%, which would severely impact Taiwan's pharmaceutical industry [4][5] Group 3 - The political response to the tariff situation has been critical, with accusations against the Taiwanese government for lack of transparency and effective negotiation strategies, leading to increased public dissatisfaction [5][6] - The current economic climate has prompted a wave of factory closures and relocations, with some manufacturing capacities shifting to countries like Vietnam, indicating a broader trend of industrial decline in Taiwan [4][7] - The overall sentiment in Taiwan's industrial sector is pessimistic, with many companies expressing that accepting new orders is akin to financial ruin due to rising costs and declining market prospects [4][5]

8月11日，三大股指早盘窄幅震荡，其中机床板块持续上行。截至上午9:40，机床ETF(159663)涨1.30%，相关成分股中，江特电机涨10.01%、大族 激光涨6.69%、华工科技涨1.96%，创世纪、中航高科、汇川技术等小幅跟涨。 展望后市，浙商证券研报指出，短期看，机床行业有望受益于机床更替周期+制造业复苏。机床行业更替周期约7-10 年，结合历史数据，预计拐 点将至。中长期看，机床行业国产化、高端化、智能化大势所趋。 消息方面，近期工业和信息化部数据显示，今年上半年，我国装备制造业延续较好增势，占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重为35.5%，充分发挥 了工业发展"稳定器"作用。2025年上半年，规模以上装备制造业增加值拉动全部规上工业增长3.4个百分点，占全部规上工业的35.5%，较去年提 高0.9个百分点。这其中，智能制造装备表现亮眼。智能制造装备主要包括高档数控机床与工业机器人、增材制造、智能传感与控制、智能检测与 装配、智能物流与仓储等关键技术装备。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 沈阳机床（SZ 000410，收盘价：6.72元）8月8日晚间发布公告称，近期，沈阳机床股份有限公司以现 金方式收到与收益相关的政府补助资金165万元，占公司最近一期经审计归属于上市公司股东净利润的 23.37%。 2024年1至12月份，沈阳机床的营业收入构成为：工业(机床主业)占比76.37%，工业(机床配套)占比 23.63%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qiaofeng Intelligent, is focused on the CNC machine tool industry and aims to advance from the second tier to the first tier by enhancing its high-end machine tool offerings [2][9]. Group 1: Company Background and Development - Qiaofeng Intelligent was founded in 2009, specializing in the research, production, and sales of CNC machine tools, particularly metal cutting machine tools [3][4]. - The founder, Jiang Xiuhua, has over 20 years of experience in the machine tool industry and recognized the opportunity to develop CNC machine tools in China, which were previously dominated by foreign brands [3][4]. - The company has established itself as a "small giant" in the domestic CNC machine tool sector, focusing on mid-to-high-end CNC machine tools [3][4]. Group 2: Product and Technology Development - Qiaofeng Intelligent has invested significantly in self-research and development of core components, such as spindles and light machines, to reduce reliance on external suppliers and enhance product quality [5][6]. - The company has achieved self-research and production of key components, marking a significant step towards high-end machine tool development [6]. - Continuous R&D investment has been a core engine for the company's growth, with R&D expenditures increasing from 0.56 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 0.86 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growing percentage of revenue [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The CNC machine tool market in China is projected to grow, with Qiaofeng Intelligent's machine tool revenue expected to reach 1.05% of the domestic metal cutting machine tool market by 2024 [8]. - The company aims to compete with international leaders like Yamazaki Mazak and DMG Mori Seiki, aspiring to become a century-old enterprise and a leader in the CNC machine tool manufacturing sector [9]. - The domestic manufacturing industry's transformation is driving an increase in demand for high-end CNC machine tools, presenting significant growth opportunities for the company [6][8].

Core Insights - The company, Qiaofeng Intelligent, is focused on the high-end CNC machine tool market and aims to move from the second tier to the first tier in the industry [1][5] - CNC machine tools are essential for modern industrial development, with a significant demand driven by sectors such as robotics and aerospace [2][3] - The company has invested heavily in self-research and development of core components, which is crucial for breaking into the high-end machine tool market [3][4] Company Focus - Qiaofeng Intelligent has been dedicated to the CNC machine tool business for over a decade, starting from machine trading to assembly and finally establishing itself in the market [1][2] - The company has developed a full range of metal cutting machine tools, including vertical, gantry, and horizontal machining centers, with over 80 mid-to-high-end models [5] Research and Development - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with amounts of 56 million, 63 million, and 86 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing 3.64%, 4.36%, and 4.90% of revenue respectively [4][5] - Continuous R&D efforts have solidified product quality and positioned the company to seize opportunities in the CNC upgrade and high-end market [4][5] Market Position - In 2024, Qiaofeng Intelligent's machine tool revenue is projected to reach 1.76 billion yuan, capturing approximately 1.05% of the domestic metal cutting machine tool market [5] - The CNC machine tool market in China exceeds 100 billion yuan, with low market concentration, providing ample growth opportunities for the company [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to leverage its upcoming IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to enhance R&D, expand production capacity, and increase market presence [4] - Qiaofeng Intelligent aims to compete with established international brands and aspires to become a leading manufacturer in the CNC machine tool sector [5]

Group 1 - Machine tool concept stocks have strengthened, with Greentech Harmonic rising over 4%, and Haomai Technology and Genesis both increasing over 2% [1] - The machine tool ETF and industrial mother machine ETF, which track the China Securities Machine Tool Index, have both risen over 2% [1] - The China Securities Machine Tool Index selects 50 listed companies involved in the manufacturing and service of machine tools and key components, reflecting the overall performance of machine tool industry securities [2] Group 2 - Brokers are optimistic about the recovery of machine tool demand due to the gradual implementation of equipment renewal and incremental policies, along with the ongoing machine tool renewal cycle [2] - It is suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the segmented fields of the machine tool industry as their operational performance is expected to improve [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - Hang Seng Index rose by 0.18%, gaining 45 points to close at 24,947 points; Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.03% [1] - Hong Kong stock market saw a morning turnover of HKD 120.6 billion [1] Group 2: Notable Stock Movements - Coal stocks led the gains, with the fifth round of coke price increases fully implemented, indicating initial success in the industry's "anti-involution" efforts. China Shenhua (601088) rose by 3.61%, and Yanzhou Coal (600188) increased by 4.1% [1] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) surged over 8% after signing a pipeline cooperation agreement with DoveTree, with a total order value of approximately HKD 47 billion and an initial payment of USD 5.1 million received [1] - Tsugami Corporation China (01651) rose by 4.68%, with a nearly 40% increase in net profit for its Japanese division in Q1 and positive machine tool production data for June [1] - Xianjian Technology (01302) increased by 6.97%, with institutions expecting gradual clearance of price adjustments for related products in the second half of the year, focusing on industry valuation recovery [2] - Pop Mart (09992) rose by 6.31%, driven by strong demand for its proprietary IP, with Morgan Stanley emphasizing that its platform value is underestimated [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) (00317) surged over 7%, with expected net profit growth of over 100% year-on-year for the first half of the year, and accelerated restructuring within the China Shipbuilding system [4] - BYD Electronics (002594) (00285) increased by over 6%, benefiting from AI-driven growth in the liquid cooling market and entering the NVIDIA supply chain [5] - Wuling Motors (00305) saw a rise of over 10% following a profit warning, with mid-term net profit soaring nearly threefold as the company actively expands in the new energy sector [6] Group 3: Declining Stocks - Qilu Expressway (01576) fell by 6.37% after issuing a profit warning, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 21.62% in mid-term net profit [7] - Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797) dropped over 7% amid public relations issues and the closure of Sam's Club member stores, despite the stock price doubling since early July [7] - Boya Interactive (00434) declined by over 6%, with expected mid-year profit reduction of 25% to 35% year-on-year [7]