12月29日，A股三大指数早盘冲高回落，午后震荡走低，截止收盘，沪指涨0.04%报3965.28点，连续九 日走高，深成指跌0.49%报13537.1点，创业板指跌0.66%报3222.61点，科创50指数涨0.04%报1346.32 点；沪深两市成交额2.14万亿，全市场超3300只个股下跌。 脑机接口概念表现活跃，海格通信、喜临门等涨停，翔宇医疗、麦澜德、三博脑科、创新医疗等跟涨。 消息面上，12月28日，第五届脑科学前沿与产业大会暨2025深圳脑机接口博览会启幕，"粤港澳大湾区 脑科学与中枢神经疾病AI创新联盟"正式启动。 盘面上，机器人概念午后反复活跃，上纬新材、步科股份20cm涨停创历史新高，五洲新春、模塑科技 等多股涨停。商业航天概念延续强势，神剑股份8连板，金风科技、雷科防务等十余股涨停。碳纤维概 念表现活跃，吉林化纤、和顺科技双双涨停；锂矿概念下挫，欣旺达跌逾11%；医药商业板块走弱，漱 玉平民跌超18%；氟化工板块回调，漱玉平民跌逾8%；电池概念午后震荡下挫，华盛锂电跌超7%；电 力板块持续走弱，国电电力跌近8%。 热点板块 商业航天概念延续强势 商业航天概念延续强势，10余只成分股涨停，神 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a pullback on December 29, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 1.49% during the trading day [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including fluorine chemicals, lithium batteries, and potash fertilizers, saw significant declines, with companies like Duofu Du falling over 8% and Xin Fengming dropping over 5% [1][2] - Despite the current pullback, the chemical sector has performed well this year, benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, with the Chemical ETF's index showing a year-to-date increase of 40.35%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities predict that the chemical industry may see a turning point in 2026, driven by negative growth in capital expenditure and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to lead to a rational return of chemical prices and profit levels [4] - Dongxing Securities anticipates an improvement in the chemical industry's prosperity in 2026 due to better supply-demand dynamics and a decrease in raw material costs, presenting a good opportunity for investment [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is highlighted as an efficient way to gain exposure to the chemical sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices collectively weakened today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly up by 0.04% at 3965 points, marking a nine-day winning streak [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.66% [1] - Total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 234 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3300 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The carbon fiber and chemical fiber sectors saw gains, with Shenjian Co. and Huading Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace concept continued to perform strongly, with China Satellite also reaching the daily limit [1] - The robotics sector was active, with Wuzhou New Spring hitting the daily limit [1] - The PEEK materials sector rose, with Hengbo Co. increasing by 20% [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included digital currency, oil, diversified finance, and wind power equipment [1] - Conversely, the lithium mining concept declined, with XWANDA dropping over 11% [1] - The pharmaceutical commercial sector weakened, with Shuyapingmin falling over 18% [1] - The fluorochemical sector also retreated, with Shuyapingmin down over 8% [1] - Other sectors with significant declines included dairy, batteries, and electricity [1] Top Gainers and Fund Inflows - The chemical fiber industry led the gainers with an increase of 3.93% [2] - The diversified finance sector followed with a rise of 2.20% [2] - The top sectors for net capital inflow included forestry and gas, with respective increases of 3.64% and 1.57% [2]

Group 1 - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.76% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [2] - The fluorochemical index closed at 5333.59 points, marking a 7.76% increase, and surpassed the performance of the CSI 300 Index by 5.81% and the basic chemical index by 3.18% [2] - The average price of fluorite 97 wet powder remained stable at 3,290 CNY/ton as of December 26, with a December average of 3,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.13% [3] Group 2 - The prices of refrigerants as of December 26 are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 47,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 54,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with various price changes noted [4] - There is a recovery in confidence among refrigerant companies and distributors regarding seasonal demand, leading to price increases for several refrigerant products [5] - The company Jinshi Resources plans to acquire a 15.7147% stake in Noah Fluorochemical for 257 million CNY, becoming the second-largest shareholder [6] Group 3 - Recommended stocks benefiting from the fluorochemical sector include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.76% during the week of December 22-26, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [6][25] - The market for fluorinated refrigerants is expected to continue its upward trend, with stable prices for fluorite and a potential recovery in the market [4][19] - Jinshi Resources plans to acquire a 15.7147% stake in Noah Fluorochemical, entering the liquid cooling sector [10][19] Summary by Sections Fluorochemical Market Overview - The average market price for fluorite (97% wet powder) was 3,290 CNY/ton as of December 26, remaining stable compared to the previous week [19][33] - The average price for December was 3,300 CNY/ton, down 10.13% year-on-year, while the average price for 2025 is projected at 3,481 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.80% from 2024 [19][33] Refrigerant Pricing Trends - As of December 26, refrigerant prices were as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 47,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 54,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - The external trade prices for these refrigerants remained stable, with R32 at 61,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 50,000 CNY/ton [21][24] Market Dynamics - The confidence of refrigerant companies and distributors in seasonal demand has increased, leading to price hikes for various refrigerant products [22][23] - The current low inventory levels are expected to drive further transactions and gradual price increases as demand recovers [23] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [11][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to trade between $55 and $70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the continued rise in long-term contracts for refrigerants and anticipates price increases for organic silicon, suggesting a focus on commercial aerospace and storage sectors [2][3] - The demand for R134a refrigerant is projected to increase significantly due to the growing penetration of electric vehicles, while the import demand for high GWP varieties like R125 may rise as India approaches the final year of its quota baseline [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is constrained by delayed OPEC+ production increases and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [3] - Coal prices are expected to oscillate at a long-term bottom, with easing pressures on mid and downstream sectors [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3] Chemical Sector Analysis - The report suggests a focus on four key areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand and improved supply conditions [2] 2. Agricultural chemicals, with steady growth in fertilizer demand supported by increasing planting areas [2] 3. Export-related chemical products, as global inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [2] 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated elimination of outdated capacities [2] Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for their potential in the refrigerant market [2] - In the organic silicon sector, companies like Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Xin'an Chemical are highlighted for their expected price increases [2] - For new materials, attention is drawn to Guocer Materials, Ruihuatai, and calcium titanate materials due to the growing commercial aerospace market [2] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall industrial product PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2, showing a slight improvement, with overall demand recovering and inventory depletion accelerating [5]

化工板块周五（12月26日）继续猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天强势，截至收 盘，场内价格大涨2.23%，收盘价创2022年9月以来新高。 成份股方面，锂电大面积爆发，氟化工、磷化工等板块部分个股亦涨幅居前。截至收盘，恩捷股份飙涨 9.1%，星源材质、光威复材、多氟多大涨超8%，藏格矿业涨超7%。 | 证券简称 | 应号 证券代码 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [区间首日] 2025-01-01 | | | | | [区间尾日] 2025-12-26 | | | | | [单位] % | | | :: 1 000813.CSI 细分化工 | | | 40.3522 | | ::: | 2 000001.SH 上证指数 | | 18.2565 | | ::: | 3 000300.SH 沪深300 | | 18.3569 | 注：统计区间为2025年1月1日至2025年12月26日，细分化工指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为：2020年， 51.68%；2021年，15.72%；2022年，-26.87%；2023年，-23.17%； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to trade between $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a continued rise in long-term contracts for refrigerants, with organic silicon prices likely to increase again, driven by demand from commercial aerospace and storage sectors [2][3] - The report highlights several key investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly in the textile, agricultural chemicals, export-related products, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an improving global economy [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [3] Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and export chains, with specific companies recommended for each segment [2][3] - Key companies to watch include: - Textile Chain: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and others [2] - Agricultural Chain: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and others [2] - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and others [2] Growth Focus on Key Materials - Emphasis on self-sufficiency in critical materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for investment [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming the overall market indices [2][15] - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with exports totaling 56,500 tons, significantly exceeding previous years [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances and promote high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9% [2][15] - The top-performing sub-industries included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [2][18] Key Industry Dynamics - TDI exports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 506,300 tons, a 56.2% year-on-year increase [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association's initiative aims to optimize investment decisions and enhance innovation in the polyoxymethylene sector, anticipating a total capacity of 1.51 million tons per year by 2025 [3] Investment Themes - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics [8] - Leading chemical companies are anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, with recommendations for companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].