4月9日抄底紫金矿业（601899）的资金，三个交易日便可以获得15%左右的收益。 截至4月14日收盘，紫金矿业A股涨幅达到2.8%，不仅收复了"4.7异动"后的全部失地，反而较近期股价 大幅下跌前有所上涨，公司总市值重返4500亿元以上。 实际上，紫金矿业近期股价颇具戏剧性。先是3月下旬公司董事长陈景河直言"市值管理做的不算很 好"，公司管理层利益会与股市绑定。 结果，不承想4月上旬外部关税政策突然变化，大宗商品、股票等风险资产价格大幅下跌，COMEX铜 更是短短三天便抹平了一季度所有涨幅，导致4月7日美股、A股和H股铜矿类上市公司出现动辄15%以 上的下跌。 当天，紫金矿业市值损失更是超450亿元。公司的反应也非常迅速，从做出股份回购决策到完成10亿元 规模的回购仅仅用时4天时间，二级市场的情绪迅速得到安抚。 直至上周末，在公司再次交出了盈利近102亿元的历史最佳一季报后，今日紫金矿业股价已经反弹至3月 末时的相对高位。 面对近期大幅增加的市场波动风险，紫金矿业火速完成回购、尽快披露业绩利好对冲，来稳定市场预期 的做法，无疑也值得其他上市公司借鉴。 火速回购10亿元，雪中送炭 较强的金融属性，使得国际铜价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is performing well, with Western Mining (601168.SH) achieving record revenue in 2024, driven by rising non-ferrous metal prices and increased copper production and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Western Mining reported total revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.932 billion yuan, up 5% from the previous year [1][2]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a consistent upward trend since 2019, with revenues of 30.57 billion yuan in 2019, 28.67 billion yuan in 2020, 38.50 billion yuan in 2021, 40.24 billion yuan in 2022, and 42.75 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. Copper Price and Production - The average copper price in 2024 reached 74,932 yuan per ton, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [2][3]. - Western Mining's copper production increased by 35% in 2024, totaling 177,543 tons, with its subsidiary Yulong Copper producing 159,084 tons, a 39.1% increase [4]. Dividend Distribution - Western Mining announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.383 billion yuan, which represents 81% of the distributable profits [5][6]. Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholder, Xikang Group, has increased its stake in Western Mining, acquiring an additional 41.202 million shares, raising its total ownership from 30.18% to 31.89% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining (藏格矿业) demonstrates strong resilience in performance, with significant contributions from its copper segment and a projected net profit exceeding 2.5 billion yuan for 2024, indicating ongoing high-quality development and new growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Cangge Mining achieved revenue of 3.251 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.580 billion yuan, with Q4 revenue reaching 927 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.95% [1] - The company reported a total asset of 15.083 billion yuan, a 7.04% increase from the beginning of the year, and a net asset of 13.865 billion yuan, up 6.18% [1] Potassium and Lithium Operations - Cangge Mining produced 1.073 million tons of potassium chloride in 2024, achieving a completion rate of 102.19%, with sales of 1.045 million tons [2] - The potassium chloride segment generated revenue of 2.210 billion yuan with a gross margin of 44.83% [2] - The lithium carbonate production reached 11,566 tons with sales of 13,582 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, contributing 1.022 billion yuan in revenue and a gross margin of 45.44% [3] Copper Segment Contribution - The investment income from the associated company, Julong Copper, reached 1.928 billion yuan, accounting for 74.72% of the net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 48.72% [3] - Julong Copper's second-phase expansion is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, potentially doubling the copper production capacity [3] ESG and Social Responsibility - Cangge Mining has integrated social responsibility into its corporate values, receiving multiple awards for its contributions to community development and environmental sustainability [4] - The company initiated its first carbon inventory in 2024 and is committed to enhancing its ESG governance and green development practices [4] Shareholder Returns - Cangge Mining implemented a "dividend + buyback" strategy, distributing approximately 408 million yuan in mid-year dividends and accumulating a total cash dividend of 7.429 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [5] - The company has repurchased shares worth about 300 million yuan, successfully canceling 10.21 million shares [5] Strategic Collaboration with Zijin Mining - The acquisition by Zijin Mining is expected to enhance Cangge Mining's asset scale, resource reserves, and management efficiency, facilitating the achievement of international mining group standards [6] - The collaboration is anticipated to leverage both companies' strengths in lithium resource development and cost control [6] Resource Reserves and Future Outlook - Cangge Mining holds substantial resources, including potassium salt projects in Laos and lithium resources in the Marmizuo Salt Lake, which are expected to enhance economic benefits through potential technical cooperation with Zijin Mining [7] - The company aims to optimize its internal structure and expand its global operational management system, focusing on key resources like potassium and lithium to strengthen its competitive advantage [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and potential investment opportunities in copper, referred to as the "Doctor of Commodities," highlighting its significance as a major commodity second only to gold in the context of a changing global landscape [3]. Group 1: Copper's Properties and Uses - Copper (Cu) is a transition metal with a long history of use in various applications, including tools and currency in ancient China [4][5]. - Its excellent conductivity and malleability make it essential in modern industries, particularly in electrical wiring and electronic components [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][9]. - Current trends show a tightening supply due to concentrated production in countries like Chile, which accounts for 28% of global copper output, and a lack of significant new discoveries in the past decade [12][17]. - From 2024 onwards, global copper reserves are projected to decline, indicating increasing scarcity [16]. Group 3: Demand Growth Factors - Demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to the growth of renewable energy sectors, including lithium batteries, solar power, and wind energy [18][20]. - Industrialization in countries like India is contributing significantly to copper consumption, with a reported average annual growth of 21% in demand from 2021 to 2024 [18][21]. - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. and Europe, along with military expenditures, is also driving copper demand, with military consumption projected at 167,000 tons in 2024 [21]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investing in copper mining stocks is suggested as a more viable option for individuals, with a focus on companies with strong production capacity, reserves, and cost efficiency [24]. - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a leading player in the copper sector, known for its large reserves and low costs, while other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jinchuan Group are noted for their growth potential [24].

观点聚焦 理由 秘鲁：宏观环境稳定，社区关系逐步改善 。 秘鲁铜矿资源禀赋优异，索尔币值稳定、经贸政策开放，但社区关系是其主要挑战。本次调研我们观察到当地 中资矿企的国际化管理和ESG融合能力正在显著提升，对改善经营的稳定性有重要意义。 巴西：优异资源禀赋和规模经济带来显著的成本优势。 巴西锂矿 成本具备全球竞争力，我们认为主要来源于不输澳矿的资源禀赋、显著优于非洲的基础设施配套以及与中国相似的低要素成本优势。此外，巴西拥有丰富且 优质的铁矿和桉树资源，铁矿石矿端成本以及阔叶浆现金成本均处于全球低位。 阿根廷：经济改革将是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 我们认为在积极的情 况下经济改革有望带来更低的通胀、更宽松的审批环境、更稳定的税收政策、更少的贸易管制，有望驱动阿根廷盐湖的成本上涨放缓、盈利能力增强、投资 力度加大和开发效率提升。 如何理解中资矿企在南美的国际化？ 相比非洲，南美国家呈现经济发展程度较高、基础设施配套较好、欧美和本土矿企竞争激烈以及"小政府、大社区"的 特征。如果说中资矿企在非洲国际化的本质是在非洲的"中国化"，那么中资矿企在南美国际化的本质则是在南美的"本土化"，这需要更高阶的国际化能力。 一 ...