Group 1 - London copper prices reached a historical high this week, but analysts suggest that this upward trend may not be sustainable [1] - On Thursday, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 2.6%, closing at $10,897 per ton, a decrease of $287 from the previous trading day, ending a six-day rally [1] - Copper prices have increased approximately 6% this month, but remain about 10% lower than the historical peak reached at the end of July [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in copper prices was primarily driven by optimistic expectations from the US-China trade talks, although the trade situation remains unresolved [1] - Supply-side uncertainties have also played a significant role in the recent price increase, with major mining companies like Glencore lowering their production forecasts for 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that concerns over supply crises may be overstated, suggesting that any potential supply gap could be offset by strong scrap copper exports and increased production from marginal producers [2]

Core Viewpoint - Global mining supply tightens, leading to a historic high in LME copper prices, with an increase of 8.86% this month and 27.38% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - LME copper price reached $11,049.50 per ton, experiencing a slight decline of 1.20% [1] - Glencore reported a 17% decrease in copper production for the first nine months of the year, prompting a tightening of production guidance for 2025 despite a rise in Q3 output [1] - The China smelter group decided not to set a guidance price for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for Q4 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Chile's national mining company Enami received environmental approval for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicated that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, while smelting profits remain at breakeven levels despite high growth in smelting output [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - National Bureau of Statistics data shows positive growth in power grid investment, while power supply investment is slowing; automotive production and sales are growing, but home appliance production is declining, and real estate remains weak [1] - An Indonesian mining accident is likely to shift global copper supply-demand dynamics, providing long-term support for copper prices [1] - Attention is drawn to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [1]

Group 1 - Southern Copper Corporation has completed 23% of its $1.8 billion Tia Maria mining project and maintains its target for production in 2027, expecting to produce 120,000 tons of cathode copper annually [2] - The company plans to invest over $10.3 billion in various copper mining projects in Peru over the next decade, including Los Chancas and Michiquillay [2] - Southern Copper is working to secure the necessary administrative permits and licenses with the support of Peruvian authorities [2] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2]

Group 1 - Anglo American reported a third-quarter copper production of 184,000 tons, an increase from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, driven by strong performance from the Quellaveco project and improved ore grades [2] - However, the company's copper production for the first three quarters of the year decreased by 9% year-on-year to 526,000 tons, down from 575,000 tons in the previous year [2] - The company expects its total copper production for the year to be between 690,000 and 750,000 tons [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

Core Insights - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.35% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.75 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 47.26% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million yuan, which is a 28.71% increase compared to the same period last year, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, up by 66.49% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The investment income from the associated company, Julong Copper Industry, significantly contributed to Cangge Mining's performance, with a copper production of 142,500 tons and sales of 142,400 tons this year [1] - Julong Copper Industry generated a revenue of 11.821 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.421 billion yuan [1] - Cangge Mining received an investment income of 1.95 billion yuan from Julong Copper, accounting for 70.89% of its net profit attributable to shareholders from the beginning of the year to the reporting period [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming comprehensive agreement between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate trade tensions, potentially driving copper prices to historical highs [1] - As of the latest data, LME copper prices are only 1.3% away from their historical peak, with recent trading showing positive market sentiment [1] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by 25%, largely due to supply disruptions in major copper-producing countries [1] Group 2 - Recent incidents, such as the fatal accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, have led to a downward revision of copper sales forecasts [2] - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has made copper more attractive to investors, contributing to its price increase [2] - BHP Group anticipates a 70% increase in global copper demand by 2050, highlighting copper as a key growth opportunity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jefferies indicates that Zijin Mining's net profit after tax for Q3 reached 14.6 billion RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a year-on-year increase of 57%, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit after tax for Zijin Mining was 12.5 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 50%, aligning with expectations [1] - The target price for Zijin's H-shares has been raised from 29.6 HKD to 38.1 HKD, while the target price for A-shares has increased from 27.3 RMB to 35.2 RMB, both maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Production Metrics - Gold production for the period was 23.8 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26%, with a cumulative increase of 20% in gold production for the first three quarters of the year [1] - Following the acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, the company expects total gold production to exceed the guidance of 85 tons, now estimated at approximately 89 tons for the year [1] - Copper production guidance has been revised down from 1.15 million tons to 1.10 million tons for the year, with a further reduction to 1.07 million tons for 2024; however, the impact on profitability is expected to be limited due to rising copper prices offsetting the decline in production [1]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term copper prices needing to consolidate after hitting the $11,000/ton resistance level. The overall strategy is to go long on dips [2][4][67]. - The copper market is facing a situation of tight supply and increasing demand. Supply is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is driven by emerging sectors like AI, new energy, and storage [2][53][67]. - The copper - gold ratio is at a historical extreme level. Historically, its rebound is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices without a systemic crisis [2][65]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Mine - end Disturbances Increase, and Supply Remains Tight - **2025 Copper Mine Supply Increment Drops Sharply**: In 2025, the expected increment of copper mine supply has dropped to 50,000 tons, far lower than the 640,000 - ton increment in 2024, due to factors like increased mine - end accidents, aging of traditional mines, insufficient capital expenditure of mining enterprises, and increased maintenance costs. Many major mining companies have lowered their production targets [5][6]. - **Limited Expected Increment of Copper Mines in 2026**: The expected increment of copper mines in 2026 is about 560,000 tons, but the actual increment may be less than 200,000 tons due to uncertainties such as the Peruvian general election, strike risks, the resumption of production of Cobre Panama, and the resumption progress of Kamoa [10][11]. - **Long - term Insufficient Capital Expenditure in Copper Mines**: Copper prices usually lead capital expenditure by 1 - 2 years. The capital expenditure of copper mining enterprises has not fully recovered to previous high levels. The capital expenditure growth rate leads the copper mine supply growth rate by 5 - 8 years. After a short - term increase in copper mine supply from 2027 - 2028, there will be a long - term low - growth period [13][18]. Part 2: The Growth Rate of Refined Copper Production Slows Down, and Global Supply Mismatches - **Faster Transmission from Mine - end to Smelting End**: In 2026, with insufficient copper mine increments, processing fees may remain low, and the transmission from the mine - end to the smelting end will be faster. Many smelters face risks of production reduction or suspension [21]. - **Continuous Export of South American Copper to the United States**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, South American copper still gives priority to exporting to the United States, resulting in tight supply in non - US regions. There are opportunities for inter - period positive spreads, and the BACK structure is beneficial to long positions and can support prices [24][32]. Part 3: Emerging Consumption Shows Bright Spots - **Rapid Development of AI**: AI development depends on data center computing power. The copper consumption of data centers is concentrated in power distribution equipment, cables, and cooling systems. The global data center capacity is growing rapidly, which will drive copper consumption, and related grid upgrades and energy storage equipment will also increase copper demand [34][35][36]. - **Lithium - ion Copper Foil Consumption Led by Energy Storage Batteries**: The global copper foil capacity is growing, with lithium - ion copper foil having a relatively high growth rate. Energy storage batteries are growing rapidly, and relevant national plans also indicate a large increment space [41]. - **Population Growth and Increased Military Expenditure**: Although China and the United States may face a decline in copper consumption, global population growth and increased military expenditure will drive up copper demand [49][50]. Part 4: Enhanced Financial Attributes - The copper - gold ratio is an important indicator for measuring economic cycle changes. Currently, the copper - gold ratio has reached a historical low, mainly due to gold price increases. Historically, the rebound of the copper - gold ratio is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices [55][59][65]. Part 5: Strategy Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy as the long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged [4][67]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider inter - market and inter - period positive spreads [4][67]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4].

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rising 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (601899) climbing 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Following the Grasberg incident, Citigroup adjusted its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, both lower than previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Copper prices rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts this month, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data publication due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' full-year estimate for 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent acquisition of RG Gold Mine, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]