云南铜业近日公告，公司正在筹划发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金事项，因有关事项尚存不确定性，根据深圳证券交易所的相关规定，经公 司申请，公司证券自5月13日开市起停牌。 Yunnan Copper Industry recently announced that the company is planning to issue shares to purchase assets and raise supporting funds. Due to the uncertainties surrounding these matters, in accordance with the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the company's securities will be suspended from trading starting May 13. 公司预计在不超过10个交易日的时间内披露本次交易方案，即在2025年5月27 日前按照《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第26号 ——上市公司重大资产重 组》的要求披露相关信息。 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-14 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 4 月通胀数据平稳，或是通胀风暴前的平静 观点分享： 5 月 13 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 4 月 CPI 数据，CPI 同比增长 2.3%，预期 2.4%， 前值 2.4%；CPI 环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，为自 2021 年春季通胀爆发以来的最低速度；预期 2.8%，前值 2.8%；核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%， 预期 0.3% ，前值 0.1%。所谓的"超级核心 CPI"（服务业除住房外）同比跌至 3.01%，为 2021 年 12 月以来的最低水平。众所周知，4 月以来，特朗普开始了过山车般的关税政策， 然而通胀数据依然保持稳定，一种合理的解释是：大部分市场主体以观望和消化库存为首要 策略，而不是因关税而调整价格。但库存总有耗尽的时候，价格该调整还是得调整，4 月的 平静大概率如台风登录前一日的风和日丽，只是大风大雨到来的前奏。尽管特朗普已经在社 交媒体上表达"美联储必须 ...

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）网站公布，Codelco和力拓宣布了一项新的合作协议，旨在加速智利阿塔 卡马地区Nuevo Cobre周边矿区的潜在开发。 Nuevo Cobre是力拓集团(57.74%)和Codelco(42.26%)的合资企业，成立于2023年，旨在勘探和开发位于 Potrerillos冶炼厂东南 10公里处的矿产资源。圣安东尼奥 (San Antonio) 是Codelco旗下的一个矿业公司， 毗邻Nuevo Cobre。该地区的地质潜力和两个项目的接近性为建立采矿区提供了机会。通过该协议，双 方将合作评估机遇、发现协同效应并降低风险。 "合作是可持续采矿的根本支柱。这是应对日益苛刻的项目挑战的最佳方式。此次，两家全球行业领袖 携手合作，共同释放该矿区的全部潜力。"智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）董事会主席马克西莫·帕切科 （Máximo Pacheco）表示。 该协议规定，力拓集团和智利国家铜业公司将成立联合委员会，并由力拓集团和智利国家铜业公司各提 供同等资金，进行为期12个月的初步概念研究，并有可能延长。 力拓首席执行官雅各布·斯陶霍尔姆表示："这是我们与智利国家铜业公司合作推 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜上涨，中美会谈取得实质性进展推动市场乐观情绪，盘后发布的联合公告显 示中美均将双方关税降至了可贸易范畴内，短期关税对双方经济的冲击担忧均下 降，利多风险资产。05 合约交割临近，在 05-06back 依旧维持在 300+情况下，现 货市场转为贴水报价，但若贴水扩大或将带动交割情绪上升，考虑到 5 月有累库 预期且日内公布的库存累库 0.3 万吨，预计本次交割能顺利完成，5 月国内产量 继续增加而需求放缓，预计盘面高 BACK 结构难持 ...

铜周报 关注中美谈判结果，铜价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位震荡，主因中美经贸会谈启动暂缓紧张局 势，市场对此持观望态度，美联储鹰派立场延迟降息略提 振美元，关税冲击对全球经济体的负面效应逐步显现，铜 价上行受阻但海外精铜紧缺提供较强基本面支撑；国内方 面，央行一揽子金融增量政策提振市场信心，我国经济加 速内循环及与"一带一路"国家构建战略合作体系将有效 对冲美国关税带来的负面影响。基本面来看，现货TC负值 扩大，全球库存持续下滑，洋山铜仓单溢价高企，盘面近 月B结构走扩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh ...

Market Review - The copper futures in Shanghai experienced a rise followed by a decline, closing below the 60-day moving average [1] Fundamental Summary - Codelco's copper production in March increased by 14.8% year-on-year, reaching 123,200 tons, indicating an enhancement in copper market supply capacity [2] - In the first four months, China imported 1.742 million tons of unrefined copper and copper materials, a decrease of 3.9%, with an average price of 69,000 yuan per ton, up by 8.5% [2] - As of May 8, total copper inventory in Shanghai was 12,522 tons, down by 902 tons from the previous day; Guangdong's inventory was 5,949 tons, down by 99 tons; Jiangsu's inventory was 1,069 tons, down by 1,000 tons; and Zhejiang's inventory remained unchanged at 0 tons, totaling 19,540 tons, a decrease of 2,001 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that the macro environment improved with the agreement on tariff trade terms between the UK and the US, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in US stock markets. The tight supply of copper ore and scrap remains unchanged, with domestic inventory showing a significant reduction [3] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the continuous decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories, alongside an increase in COMEX copper inventories, indicates a reshaping of the copper trade landscape. Domestic supply tightness supports copper prices, with a positive demand trend expected due to investments in power equipment and data centers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

全球顶级黄金生产商之一的巴里克黄金（Barrick Mining）第一季度业绩超预期，主要归功于黄金价格的强劲上涨。 公司调整后净利润同比增长81.08%，黄金产量同比减少19.36%。当季平均实现的黄金价格为每盎司2898美元，较上年同期上涨40%。公司维持全年黄金 和铜产量指引，并积极推进Reko Diq和Lumwana等关键增长项目。 | | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial Results ($ millions) | | | | | Net earnings9 | 474 | 996 | 295 | | Adjusted net earnings3 | 603 | 794 | 333 | | Attributable EBITDA10 | 1,361 | 1,697 | 907 | | Net cash provided by operating activities | 1,212 | 1,392 | 760 | | Free cash flow4 | 375 | 501 | 32 | | Net ...

智利国家铜业公司董事长Maximo Pacheco表示，4月该公司铜产量比去年同期增长了22%，预计产量为 10.5万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not contain information on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The tariff shock has eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamentals. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the copper market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing and domestic export orders somewhat restricted. - The current copper consumption shows a structurally differentiated characteristic, with the growth of emerging sectors' demand contrasting sharply with the weakness of traditional real estate. - The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons [101][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Copper Market Overview - **Price Fluctuations**: On April 2, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted. The price dropped from $9,721/ton on April 2 to $8,105/ton on April 7, a decline of 16.6%. After Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, prices rebounded. By April 25, LME copper prices reached a maximum of $9,481.5/ton, and domestic prices reached 78,520 yuan/ton, almost recovering all the losses caused by the tariff increase [3][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, with processing fees dropping to - $42/ton. However, smelters have no plans to cut production. The proportion of scrap - copper - produced blister copper has increased to around 20%. Global consumption has advanced due to Trump's tariff policy. In May, overall consumption is expected to be high at the beginning and low at the end, with inventory likely to continue to decline slightly, and the spot premium remaining firm [4][14]. II. Market Section 1. Market Review - **Price and Inventory**: In April, due to the tariff policy, copper prices first fell and then rebounded. Domestic buying was strong, and the spot premium rose. In April 2025, global visible inventory decreased by 119,900 tons compared to March, reaching 604,000 tons. Chinese social inventory decreased by 155,500 tons, reaching 181,700 tons, while bonded - area inventory increased by 6,200 tons to 85,100 tons [11][12]. - **Consumption Drivers**: The significant increase in consumption in April was due to suppressed downstream procurement demand in March, increased procurement and inventory - building demand after the price drop, and unaffected export orders. Terminal consumption showed structural differentiation, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while traditional real estate was weak [12]. 2. Market Outlook - **Macro Factors**: During the May Day holiday, the release of important economic data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro - zone manufacturing PMI may have a significant impact on copper prices. Trump's tariff policy remains unclear and may still impact the market [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing. The situation of the import window depends on domestic consumption in May and June [14]. - **Price Forecast**: If re - export orders can still be issued, copper prices will continue to consolidate, mainly in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. If re - export orders are completely prohibited, prices will return to 73,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the overall center of copper prices will move down, but the decline may not be smooth before the US tariff policy is clear [5][15]. III. Copper Mine Production is Downgraded, and Copper Supply Growth is Flat with 2024 1. Global Copper Mine Production - **Production Forecast**: After the release of major companies' 2024 annual reports, the market has significantly downgraded the expected copper concentrate production for 2025. The expected copper mine supply increment in 2025 has been reduced from 500,000 tons to 200,000 tons, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 0.88% [20]. - **Company - Specific Production**: Different mining companies have different production trends in 2024 and 2025. For example, Anglo American's production decreased in 2024 and is expected to further decline in 2025, while MMG's production increased in 2024 and is expected to continue to rise in 2025 [21][24]. 2. Global Refined Copper Production - **Supply and Demand Balance**: In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 61,000 tons. The first two months of this year had a supply surplus of 150,000 tons, similar to the same period last year [45]. - **Processing Fees and Production**: The long - term copper concentrate processing fee for 2025 between overseas mines and Chinese smelters is at a record low. As of April 25, the import processing fee has dropped to - $42.52/ton. Despite losses, smelters generally have no plans to cut production [45][47]. - **Waste Copper Supply**: Waste copper has become a key supplement to raw materials. From January to February 2025, the supply of domestic waste copper increased by 226,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.79%. In March, China imported 189,700 tons of waste copper, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [47]. IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption - **US Consumption**: The US is in the stage of rush - to - import, and the replenishment cycle may last until July. Due to tariff disturbances, US consumption has advanced, but consumer confidence is declining, and consumption may decline more rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends [63]. - **European Consumption**: After continuous interest rate cuts, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI rebounded in April, but the comprehensive PMI and service PMI declined. Consumer confidence is also low, and consumption expenditure is restricted [64]. - **Emerging Economies**: Emerging economies are in a 90 - day rush - to - export stage. Countries with high tariff - levying ratios will experience an export consumption boom during this period, but the situation after July depends on US tariff policies [64]. 2. Domestic Consumption - **Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area of housing decreased year - on - year, although the decline narrowed. Real estate will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption [79]. - **Power Grid**: The planned investment of the two major power grid companies in 2025 increased by 6.7% compared to 2024. From January to March, the power grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the wire and cable industry's copper consumption increased significantly [84]. - **Home Appliances**: In March 2025, the production and sales of household air - conditioners increased year - on - year. The consumption of air - conditioners is shifting from exports to domestic sales, but there are concerns about consumer waiting due to subsidies [86][87]. - **Automobiles**: From January to March 2025, China's automobile production increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles will continue [89]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to March 2025, photovoltaic installation increased year - on - year, and the industry is in a rush - to - install period. Wind power installation decreased slightly, but the annual new - installation scale is expected to increase [95]. 3. Consumption Summary - In the 90 - day period, US consumption may decline rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends. After the sharp decline in copper prices in early April, domestic consumption increased rapidly, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while real estate continued to drag down the market [96][97]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Copper Supply - Demand**: The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons. The growth rate of copper mine production in 2025 is expected to be 0.88%, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2% [101][102]. - **China's Refined Copper Supply - Demand**: China's refined copper consumption is expected to grow by 2 - 2.6% in 2025. The supply - demand balance shows a certain degree of fluctuation in different months [105].