1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially reduce the growth rate of ore - heating furnace start - up rates. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also below expectations. Overall, the overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, reducing supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The organic silicon industry's start - up rate is slowing, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable and is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months as enterprise profit conditions improve and production schedules increase in October [4]. - Market Outlook - The supply - side incremental space is expected to narrow. Key signals to watch are whether the supply - side start - up rate enters a downward channel and whether the downstream polysilicon demand improves. If both conditions are met, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are crucial variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Core Influencing Factors - The core factors determining the polysilicon futures price are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices on the demand side, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected power prices [9]. - Market Outlook - The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. The high volatility of polysilicon futures implies high risks, and investors are advised to be cautious [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8505 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.70%) and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan (- 0.18%). The trading volume is 188,642 lots, down 1,690 lots (- 0.89%) daily and 98,635 lots (- 34.33%) weekly. The open interest is 107,518 lots, down 6,718 lots (- 5.88%) daily and 55,156 lots (- 33.91%) weekly [12][13]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 100 yuan (- 1.13%) weekly. The price of 553 in Xinjiang is also 8750 yuan/ton, with the same daily and weekly changes. The prices of different grades and regions show various trends, and the price of downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, etc., also have corresponding changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48,851 lots, down 452 lots (- 0.79%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different delivery warehouses have different changes, such as a 0.3 - million - ton decrease in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [35]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 375 yuan (0.74%) and a weekly increase of 725 yuan (1.45%). The trading volume is 121,870 lots, down 28,902 lots (- 19.17%) daily and 175,833 lots (- 59.06%) weekly. The open interest is 52,237 lots, down 4,569 lots (- 8.04%) daily and 29,151 lots (- 35.82%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon, including N - type re - feeding material, N - type dense material, etc., shows different degrees of increase. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have corresponding changes [45]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 1975 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (- 15.96%) daily and 685 yuan (- 25.75%) weekly. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9290 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared to the previous day [55].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/10/21 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-14 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 吨 | 151396 | 151396 | 290165 | 0 | -138769 | | 热卷 | 吨 | 143657 | 146032 | 59778 | -2375 | 83879 | | 铁矿石 | 手 | 1000 | 1200 | 800 | -200 | 200 | | 焦煤 | 手 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 0 | 0 | | 焦炭 | 手 | 2050 | 2050 | 2190 | 0 | -140 | | 硅铁 | 张 | 11400 | 12103 | 13665 | -703 | -2265 | | 硅锰 | 张 | 46638 | 47636 ...

Core Insights - The meeting on October 17 focused on enhancing financial services for the real economy and promoting high-quality regional development through collaboration between Donghai Futures and the Tongren municipal government [1][9]. Group 1: Service Model and Achievements - Donghai Futures has implemented a "special team coordination, special promotion" service model in Tongren, achieving significant progress in areas such as the application for egg delivery warehouses and providing price risk protection for agricultural products worth approximately 3.7 billion yuan through the "insurance + futures" project [3][5]. - A three-in-one service system has been gradually established, focusing on "financial empowerment, industry-driven, and consumption assistance" under the guidance of party building [3]. Group 2: Future Cooperation Paths - Two specific paths for future cooperation were proposed: upgrading risk management services from "individual enterprises" to "entire industries" and expanding from "single tools" to a "comprehensive ecosystem," aiming to create a demonstrative "Tongren model" [5][6]. - The construction of delivery warehouses will be leveraged to accelerate the establishment of regional agricultural product distribution centers, enhancing Tongren's pricing influence and competitive edge in key industries like poultry and eggs [6]. Group 3: Group's Comprehensive Advantages - Donghai Securities, as the parent company, has extensive experience in bond financing, IPO guidance, and mergers and acquisitions, which will support the deepening of services in Tongren [7]. - The company aims to provide full-cycle capital services to local enterprises, create a "risk management + capital empowerment" dual-driven model, and offer intellectual support for regional economic planning [7]. Group 4: Government and Industry Collaboration - Mayor Mu Rongkun acknowledged the achievements of Donghai Futures in supporting Tongren's development and emphasized the importance of exploring new financial service paths for the real economy [9]. - The mayor highlighted the potential for deepening cooperation across various sectors, particularly in the context of the egg delivery warehouse application, to enhance the income of farmers, efficiency of enterprises, and benefits for the government [9][11].

Core Insights - The Shanghai International Financial Center has achieved significant development over the past 30 years, but still faces challenges in international competitiveness and market internationalization [1][3][5] Group 1: Achievements - Shanghai has built the most diverse financial market globally, with 1,782 licensed institutions, including a 31% foreign capital share [3] - Key financial indicators place Shanghai among the top globally, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange ranking third in total market capitalization and fifth in trading volume by the end of 2024 [3] - The city has established a comprehensive financial ecosystem covering various sectors, including banking, securities, insurance, and fintech [3] Group 2: Challenges - The international competitiveness of Shanghai's financial center is lacking, with insufficient attraction of high-level financial institutions and weak influence in pricing of mainstream financial products [5] - The degree of financial internationalization is low, with foreign ownership in the A-share market at only 2.7% and foreign investment in the bond market below 3% by the end of 2024 [5] - The bond market structure is imbalanced, with nearly 90% of bonds rated AAA, leading to a lack of risk differentiation in pricing [5] - There is a gap in high-quality supporting services and fintech leadership, with legal and professional service capabilities not meeting actual demand [5] Group 3: Future Goals - The long-term goal is to establish a top-tier global financial center by the middle of this century, comparable to New York and London, with a focus on RMB dominance [7] - The medium-term goal (5-10 years) aims to enhance the financial center's capabilities and solidify its position as a global asset allocation and risk management hub [7] - Key tasks during the 14th Five-Year Plan include improving market quality, increasing international influence, and enhancing the role of RMB in global financing [7] Group 4: Implementation Strategies - Six major pathways and 50 specific measures have been proposed to achieve the outlined goals, including deepening financial reforms and enhancing institutional openness [8][9] - Establishing an offshore financial system centered on RMB to facilitate cross-border capital flow and support Chinese enterprises' overseas operations [9] - Promoting fintech development by leveraging Shanghai's data resources to create platforms that empower both financial services and regulatory oversight [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the return of long - shut small plants, and import deals from Europe to China. However, downstream demand is weak, with a high probability of the peak season being uneventful this year, resulting in a persistent inventory build - up pattern. The price of domestic pure benzene is likely to fall rather than rise, which slows down imports. In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China decreased significantly, and some imported pure benzene faced difficulties in unloading, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, the supply is tightening as more plants are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene plant is uncertain. It is expected that the new production capacity will increase the supply in mid - to late October. The balance sheet shows that styrene will maintain a tight balance from October to November (if Jingbo's plant stops for a long time, styrene will enter a destocking pattern in the fourth quarter). However, high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit the upward price movement. In the short term, the market is affected by macro factors and follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. It is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, and that of styrene is 6400 - 7000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in the past three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2511C6700) with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 yuan to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% ratio at 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6500) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 110 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory build - up pattern. Import is slowing down, and short - term spot liquidity is tightening [3]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening in the short term, and the market will maintain a tight balance from October to November. High inventory and the drag from pure benzene limit the upward price movement [3]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China was 47,000 tons, a significant decrease. Some imported pure benzene faced unloading difficulties, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [4]. - Several styrene plants, including Jingbo Sida Rui (670,000 tons/year), Anhui Jiaxi (350,000 tons/year), and Lianyungang Petrochemical (600,000 tons/year), are under maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Due to weak macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals, the price of crude oil has been falling recently, weakening cost support and causing a collective decline in oil - related chemical products [7]. - As of October 13, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period, but the high inventory is still difficult to reduce [7]. - On October 10, 2025, the US President announced a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting from November 1 and export controls on all key software, putting pressure on terminal export demand [7]. - Two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.5 Basis and Price Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene are presented, showing different trends for various contracts [8]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - futures spreads and cross - product spreads, are analyzed, with most spreads showing downward trends [9]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Price - **Pure Benzene**: The prices of pure benzene in different markets and contracts are provided, along with production margins. The production margin of pure benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 366 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [10]. - **Styrene**: The prices of styrene in different regions and contracts are given, as well as its profits. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 612.2397 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [11]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and EPS are also presented [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - **Market Situation**: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - **Market Situation**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. submitted its Hong Kong IPO prospectus on April 17, 2025, which became invalid after six months on October 17, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [1] - Nanhua Futures is headquartered in China and focuses on providing financial services related to futures and derivatives, offering comprehensive and customized risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - The company aims to provide diversified wealth management services to both domestic and overseas investors, and it was the first futures company to be listed on the A-share market in China in August 2019, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider headquartered in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider based in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Today, stock index fluctuated widely with different trends for large - and small - cap stocks. Large - cap index closed up, while small - and medium - cap index continued to decline. High - dividend sectors represented by banks and cyclical industries such as food and beverage and medicine led the rise, driving the large - cap index up [5]. - Trading volume continued to shrink. After two months, the trading volume of the two markets dropped below two trillion yuan, and the margin trading ratio also declined rapidly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. With lack of volume support and dull information, short - term volatile market will continue [5]. - Short - term trend trading is difficult to capture due to wide market fluctuations. Index futures cross - variety arbitrage can be tried. Considering market risk aversion suppressing small - cap stocks and the decreasing popularity of high - valued technology leaders, the relative advantage of large - cap index is expected to continue periodically [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Stock index trends were mixed today. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.26%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 141.721 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF rose with decreasing volume, IH rose with increasing volume, and IC and IM fell with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - On October 16, 2025, at the Sustainable Global Leaders Conference, Bi Xiaoying of the CSRC said that the CSRC will guide the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to enrich the compilation guidelines based on the "Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Sustainable Development Reports of Listed Companies" according to enterprise needs, and conduct policy evaluation after mandatory disclosure next year to optimize the disclosure system [4]. - Trump claimed that India promised to stop buying Russian oil, and India responded that it prioritizes consumer interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed the US using China - related issues in trade negotiations [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%）|成交量（万手）|成交量环比（万手）|持仓量（万手）|持仓量环比（万手）| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.38 | 15.3473 | - 0.2094 | 27.4819 | - 0.228 | | IH | 0.80 | 7.6311 | 0.5009 | 10.3884 | 0.6373 | | IC | - 1.01 | 15.8548 | - 2.4066 | 25.3051 | - 0.8459 | | IM | - 0.95 | 24.9753 | - 4.3401 | 35.5481 | - 1.475 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.10 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.28 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1931.138 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 141.721 | [8]