Macro News - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 984.84 CNY per gram, with a decline of 3.11%. The opening price was 1004.72 CNY per gram, with a high of 1007.12 CNY and a low of 970.02 CNY [1] - The U.S. President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the Fed's building renovation, indicating potential legal action against Powell for incompetence [1] - The U.S. has intensified its blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, with non-sanctioned vessels also facing seizures. Trump mentioned the possibility of declaring war on Venezuela, indicating an escalation in pressure on the country [1] - The U.S. is advancing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, stating that progress towards a peace agreement is very close [1] Institutional Views - After the CME Group's second increase in precious metals margin rates, precious metals experienced a significant pullback, leading to a notable decrease in market speculation [1] - Despite geopolitical disturbances, the U.S.-China interest rate cut cycle, and de-dollarization, the bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The outlook for gold remains positive [1] - The strategy for holding long positions in the Shanghai gold February contract is maintained [1]

Core Insights - The publication of "Chongqing Finance 2025" highlights the significant progress made in establishing Chongqing as a western financial center, showcasing the implementation of the "Smart Integration and Smooth Financing" initiative in 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Development Achievements - In 2024, Chongqing's financial system achieved an asset scale of 8.9 trillion yuan, with domestic and foreign currency loans exceeding 6 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - The city provided 120 billion yuan in targeted credit to support the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle projects and 600 billion yuan in financing for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [1] - Chongqing ranked first in the western region for stock and bond financing, introducing innovative financial products such as the first "Silver Industry" insurance investment fund and the first "Belt and Road" green corporate bond [1] Group 2: Financial Reform and Innovation - The book serves as a demonstration of Chongqing's financial reform and innovation, leading in green finance reforms nationally and expanding agricultural transformation financial pilot projects [2] - Initiatives like "Yujin Tong" and "Yujin Dun" are creating a new digital financial ecosystem, with blockchain cross-border financial innovations recognized as national exemplary cases [2] - The first consumer protection guidelines for the micro-lending industry were introduced, and efforts to eliminate high-risk institutions have maintained Chongqing's top position in national compliance for eight consecutive years [2] Group 3: Commitment to Development - The publication includes 57 significant annual events, 12 core policy documents, and 64 representative institutional case studies, reflecting the commitment of Chongqing's financial sector to national strategies and modernization efforts [2] - The book emphasizes the role of financial services in supporting the "33618" modern manufacturing cluster and "416" technology innovation layout, as well as aiding small and micro enterprises and rural revitalization [2] - "Chongqing Finance 2025" not only summarizes past achievements but also invites future collaboration, aiming to attract more financial institutions, high-end talent, and quality resources to Chongqing [2][3]

瑞达期货 预计沪锡短期宽幅调整 铜冠金源期货：预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓 整体来看，市场流动性收紧，锡价跟随贵金属剧烈波动。基本面亦不支持当前高价，下游焊料、电子制 造企业对高价原料接受度较低，维持按需采购，周度社会延续环比回升态势。同时原料供应端扰动降 温，且临近国内元旦假期，资金存落袋需求。短期市场情绪回落，预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓。 12月30日盘中，沪锡期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至316730.00元。截止发稿，沪锡主力 合约报326910.00元，跌幅4.51%。 沪锡期货主力跌超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓 瑞达期货（002961）：预计沪锡短期宽幅调整 宏观面，特朗普：正考虑以"严重失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1月或公布下任美联储主席人选。基本面，供 应端，国内锡矿进口供应仍相对较紧，锡矿加工费维持低位。缅甸复产推进叠加雨季结束，提供了部分 锡矿供应增量；但其地地区供应仍具有较大不稳定性，整体锡矿进口量仍处于较低水平。冶炼端，当前 锡矿原料紧张，大部分企业原料库存还是偏低，对大多数企业来说处于亏本状况， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [2][3][4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the market showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight - consecutive - day gain despite two intraday dips. The short - term sentiment deviated from the rise - fall ratio, with nearly 3,400 stocks falling but nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit. The electrolyte, lithium ore, and industrial metal concepts led the gains, while the lithography machine, optical chip, and OCS concepts led the losses [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3045.4036, 4604.27, and 4736.66 respectively. The turnovers were 34.10 billion yuan, 175.40 billion yuan, and the trading volumes were 0.41 billion and 266.26 billion respectively. The price - to - earnings ratios were not provided in a straightforward way, but the relevant data shows the market performance of these indices [3] - **Options Trading**: For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 3.54 million contracts, put options was 2.47 million contracts, and the open interest was 5.10 million contracts. For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 13.58 million contracts, put options was 9.03 million contracts, and the open interest was 16.10 million contracts. For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 32.12 million contracts, put options was 19.53 million contracts, and the open interest was 27.04 million contracts. The PCR (put - call ratio) for each index was also provided, with values of 0.68, 0.71, and 0.98 respectively [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The historical volatility and volatility cones of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were presented, including the minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current values. The historical volatility was analyzed for different time periods such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The volatility smile curves of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility were also shown, with different strike prices and corresponding implied volatility values [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at Yingda Securities, with Ma Xiaoyan replacing Duan Guangming as chairman, marks a strategic shift aimed at enhancing the company's focus on its core business and improving its financial performance [2][3][5]. Leadership Change - Ma Xiaoyan, aged 56, has extensive experience within the State Grid system, having held various significant positions, including Chief Financial Officer and Deputy General Manager at Yingda International Holdings Group [4]. - Ma's appointment is expected to bring a stronger focus on financial management and operational efficiency at Yingda Securities [5]. Business Strategy - Yingda Securities plans to sell its 100% stake in Yingda Futures for 1.129 billion yuan, representing an 8.31% premium, to enhance cash flow and concentrate on its main business [8]. - The sale of Yingda Futures is part of a strategy to optimize the company's business structure and improve core competitiveness [11]. Financial Performance - Yingda Futures reported a net asset value of 1.043 billion yuan as of March 31, 2025, with a revenue of 19.22 million yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a loss of 10.43 million yuan [10]. - For the first half of 2025, Yingda Securities' total revenue was 389 million yuan, a decrease of 3.72% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 36.81% to 107 million yuan, highlighting a situation of "increased profit without increased revenue" [15]. Challenges - The company faces two main challenges: revenue growth and compliance management. The Securities Regulatory Commission has mandated corrective actions due to issues in employee management and internal controls [12][16]. - Ma Xiaoyan is expected to prioritize strategies to address revenue generation and compliance issues as part of her leadership approach [16].

Core Viewpoint - The transaction between State Grid Yingda and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) represents a strategic move to enhance financial collaboration and operational efficiency between two major state-owned enterprises in China, focusing on asset and equity transactions to achieve mutual benefits and development [2][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Yingda Securities plans to sell its 100% stake in Yingda Futures to China National Petroleum Group Capital for 1.129 billion yuan, with an assessed value increase of 86.61 million yuan, reflecting an 8.31% appreciation [3][4]. - The sale aims to improve Yingda Securities' cash flow and allow it to concentrate on its core securities business, while CNPC Capital will gain a futures license to enhance its financial service offerings [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yingda Futures has faced performance challenges, with projected revenues of 101 million yuan and 19.22 million yuan for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, respectively, and a net profit of 1.23 million yuan followed by a loss of 1.043 million yuan [3]. - Despite these challenges, Yingda Futures' total assets were valued at 3.042 billion yuan, with net assets of 1.044 billion yuan as of March 2025 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The transaction is expected to optimize Yingda Securities' business structure and enhance its core competitiveness, while CNPC Capital aims to deepen its integrated financial services in the energy and chemical sectors [4][5]. - The simultaneous transfer of 379 million shares of CNPC Capital to Yingda Group will make Yingda Group the second-largest shareholder, further solidifying the partnership between the two enterprises [5]. Group 4: Performance of Yingda Securities - In the first half of 2025, Yingda Securities reported total revenue of 389 million yuan, a decrease of 3.72%, but a net profit increase of 36.81% to 107 million yuan [6]. - The brokerage business saw significant growth, with new accounts increasing by 27.90% and a 32.86% rise in margin financing and securities lending balances [6]. Group 5: Overall Growth of Yingda Group - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yingda Group achieved revenue of 7.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit of 2.233 billion yuan, reflecting a 53.73% growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The transaction between State Grid Yingda and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) represents a strategic move to enhance financial collaboration and optimize business structures, benefiting both parties through resource concentration and expanded financial service capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Yingda Securities plans to sell its 100% stake in Yingda Futures for 1.129 billion yuan, reflecting an appraisal value increase of 86.6131 million yuan, or an 8.31% appreciation [2][4]. - The sale aims to improve cash flow for Yingda Securities and allow it to focus on its core securities business, while CNPC's subsidiary, China National Petroleum Capital, will gain a futures license to enhance its financial service offerings [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yingda Futures has faced performance challenges, with projected revenues of 101 million yuan and 19.22 million yuan for 2024 and the first three months of 2025, respectively, alongside a net profit of 1.23 million yuan and a loss of 1.043 million yuan [4]. - Despite these challenges, Yingda Futures' total assets were valued at 3.042 billion yuan, with net assets of 1.044 billion yuan as of March 2025 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The transaction is expected to enhance the core competitiveness of Yingda Securities by allowing it to optimize its business structure and focus on strategic transformation [5]. - For CNPC, acquiring Yingda Futures will deepen its integrated financial services in the energy and chemical sectors, improving its risk management capabilities and overall service quality [5][7]. Group 4: Broader Corporate Developments - Concurrently, CNPC will transfer 379 million shares of China National Petroleum Capital to State Grid Yingda Group, making it the second-largest shareholder, which is aimed at improving the quality of the listed company and expanding cooperation [7]. - This collaboration between two major state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance their competitive advantages and foster mutual development [3][7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tin market is currently under the double pressure of "falsification of supply anxiety" and "negative demand feedback." The previous core logic supporting the tin price to reach 348,000 yuan/ton was the "expectation of raw material shortage," but this logic is weakening. The supply bottleneck is being broken by the recovery of trade flows, while the demand side has a strong rejection reaction due to high prices. The accumulation of social inventory at the end of the peak consumption season falsifies the "shortage" proposition. The decline in photovoltaic module production and weak consumer electronics orders make the downstream demand extremely fragile. As a result, the high - valuation of tin prices has lost its fundamental anchor, and the market logic is switching from "strong expectation" to "weak reality," with a downward trend being the path of least resistance [2]. - In the short - term, with the end of the Christmas holiday and the approaching year - end closing, the willingness of long - position funds to withdraw is stronger than to attack. The spot market is in a "high - price but no - trading" situation. The continuous closure of the import window fails to prevent inventory accumulation, indicating weak domestic demand. Without sudden supply disruptions, the market will be dominated by short - sellers [4]. - Looking forward to Q1 2026, the long - term structural contradiction in the tin market will shift from "mineral shortage" to "mismatch between smelting capacity expansion and demand interruption." Although the current tin ore processing fee in Yunnan is at a historical low, it reflects a stock game. With the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and the supplement of imported ore sources, the supply of refined tin is expected to increase slightly year - on - year in Q1 2026. However, the demand side is weak. If there is no substantial restocking in consumer electronics in Q1 2026, the tin price may face a deep valuation adjustment and return to the cost line [7]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures Unilateral**: Short at high prices. The logic is the alleviation of supply anxiety, inventory accumulation, and year - end capital withdrawal. It is recommended to place short orders in the range of 338,000 - 342,000 yuan, with a target price of 325,000 yuan and a stop - loss above the previous high of 348,000 yuan [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Buy put options or use bear spreads. The logic is that volatility may increase as prices fall, and buying out - of - the - money put options can bet on a rapid price correction [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short near - term contracts and long far - term contracts (Contango structure trading). The logic is that domestic inventory is continuously accumulating and the spot is at a discount, so the monthly spread structure may deepen in the direction of Contango [13]. Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 350,000 yuan and sell 25% of SN2602C call options when the volatility is appropriate [14]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 330,000 yuan and sell 25% of SN2602P put options when the volatility is appropriate [14]. Group 4: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Drivers**: Not provided in the report. - **Negative Information**: Inventory has accumulated, SMM's three - place social inventory has increased to 9,378 tons (weekly increase of 186 tons), and SHFE warehouse receipts have increased to 7,844 tons; demand has declined, with a 12.5% month - on - month decrease in global photovoltaic cell production in December and weak electronic consumption; supply has eased, with a surge in Indonesia's refined tin exports in November and a significant month - on - month increase in China's tin ore imports in November; spot trading is cold, with strong price - aversion sentiment and a "high - price but no - trading" situation [19]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 334,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.7%); the 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan (150%); the price of 40% tin concentrate is 322,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.72%); the price of 60% tin concentrate is 326,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.71%); the price of 60A solder bar is 214,250 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.46%); the price of 63A solder bar is 223,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of lead - free solder is 340,750 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan (- 0.73%) [17]. Next Week's Important Events - **Domestic**: On December 31st, the official manufacturing PMI will be released to verify the changes in the prosperity of the electronics/photovoltaic industry chain. Throughout the week, monitor the change in spot inventory, as whether inventory stops accumulating is the key to a price stop - fall [17]. - **International**: Throughout the week, pay attention to the latest news on the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State (the biggest variable on the supply side) and the change in the proportion of LME inventory cancellation warrants (to check for the outflow of overseas hidden inventory) [20]. Group 5: Disk Interpretation Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Macro Sentiment**: The US has postponed the additional tariffs on Chinese chips for 18 months, and NVIDIA plans to deliver the H200 chip, easing concerns about the technology war [19]. - **Processing Fee at a Low Level**: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan remains at 12,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% ore in other regions remains at 8,000 yuan/ton, at a historical low [19]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory is 4,895 tons, still at a relatively low level, with only 160 tons in American inventory [19]. Domestic Market - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the weighted tin price contract closed at 338,500 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable positions are mainly long in net positions [22]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic term structure is in a C structure [24]. LME Market - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The LME tin term structure remains in a B structure this week [28]. Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with narrow fluctuations. The tin import loss is 14,018.67 yuan/ton, down 515.1 yuan (3.81%); the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [30]. Group 6: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The long - term low processing fees have put pressure on smelter profits and suppressed production willingness [32]. Group 7: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection Supply Side and Projection - Although no specific supply projection data is provided, it is mentioned that with the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and the supplement of imported ore sources, the supply of refined tin is expected to increase slightly year - on - year in Q1 2026 [7]. Demand Side and Projection - The demand side is weak. The decline in photovoltaic module production and the continuous weakness of consumer electronics orders make the downstream demand extremely fragile. If there is no substantial restocking in consumer electronics in Q1 2026, the tin price may face a deep valuation adjustment [2][7].

证券代码：600517 证券简称：国网英大 公告编号：临2025-039号 国网英大股份有限公司关于出售英大期货有限公司全部股权的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 国网英大股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"上市公司"或"国网英大"）全资子公司英大证券有限责任 公司（以下简称"英大证券"或"转让方"）拟将其持有的英大期货有限公司（以下简称"英大期货"或"目 标公司"或"交易标的"）100%股权以人民币112,928.62万元的价格出售给中国石油集团资本有限责任公 司（以下简称"中油资本有限"或"受让方"）（以下简称"本次交易"）。本次交易由具备从事证券、期货 业务资格的沃克森（北京）国际资产评估有限公司（以下简称"沃克森"）进行评估，出具《英大证券有 限责任公司拟协议转让英大期货有限公司股权至中国石油集团资本有限责任公司涉及的英大期货有限公 司股东全部权益价值资产评估报告》（沃克森评报字(2025)第2063号）（以下简称"英大期货资产评估 报告"），前述评估报告结果已完成国有资产监督管理 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月26日，隔夜外盘休市，SHFE黄金收涨1.07%。今早开盘后，伦敦现货黄金重回4500美元/盎司之 上，伦敦现货白银跳空高开，盘中突破73美元/盎司，再创新高。 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 全球宽松叙事再加码。日本2026财年（2026年4月起）初始预算达122.3万亿日元，较2025财年的115.2万 亿日元增6.3%，为史上最大规模，增幅远超当前约2%左右的通胀水平，核心由社保、防卫、债务成本 等刚性支出驱动，同时依赖税收增长与发债补缺口。当前日本呈现"宽财政+紧货币"的组合，财政扩张 托底经济与民生，货币收紧抑制通胀，政策效果更具复杂性。地缘政治方面，乌总统表示讨论加快实 现"真正和平"的时间安排。近期贵金属市场再现过热情绪，金银依然表现坚挺，短期波动加大，注意仓 位管理。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，并不构成任 ...