商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 27 日 焦炭：震荡偏弱 焦煤：仓单扰动，震荡偏弱 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 期货研究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1090 | -36 | -3.2% | | | | J2605 | 1644 | -30 | -1.8% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 717671 | 559107 | 67181 | | | | 12605 | 15437 | 38773 | 542 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主佳 | 1570 | 1570 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1483 | 1483 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1120 | 106 ...

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, particularly in advanced manufacturing and resource deep processing [1][2][5] Group 1: Traditional Industry Transformation - The region is witnessing a significant shift from traditional industries to high-end manufacturing, with coal being transformed into high-value chemical materials [2][3] - The total investment of 48.4 billion yuan in the Ordos Baofeng 3 million tons coal-to-olefins project demonstrates the scale of transformation, producing over 9,000 tons of olefins daily [2] - Inner Mongolia has established over 500 green factories, with their output accounting for over 26% of the total industrial output value, surpassing the national average [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The use of intelligent production equipment in projects like the Inner Mongolia Jinglei Industrial Co. has led to a 10-15% reduction in electricity consumption and a 10% decrease in coke consumption [1] - The development of a closed-loop industrial chain in the coal-to-BDO (1,4-butanediol) sector has resulted in a 20% reduction in energy consumption and a 15% decrease in costs [2] - Breakthroughs in rare earth materials have enabled the region to become a global leader in new materials, enhancing product value by up to 10 times [3] Group 3: Green and Sustainable Practices - Inner Mongolia's coal mining sector is increasingly adopting green mining practices, with 61% of coal mines being green and 74% being intelligent [3] - The green electricity usage in the Hohhot Zaha Naor 350,000 tons green aluminum project is as high as 80%, leading to industry-leading energy consumption and carbon emissions [4] - The chemical industry is transitioning towards high-end, green circular production, with new products like high-end resins and medical materials being developed [4] Group 4: Agricultural and Food Industry Development - The dairy industry in Inner Mongolia is modernizing and brand-building, with major companies like Yili and Mengniu capturing around 60% of the national market share [5] - The region has over 62 million acres of high-standard farmland, maintaining a stable grain output of over 80 billion jin, contributing to national food security [5] - Agricultural products are evolving from basic commodities to high-end brands, with regional brands gaining recognition both domestically and internationally [5]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]

据悉，此次专项整治重点围绕三大关键领域展开：一是瓦斯防治领域，着重强化高瓦斯和突出矿井风险 隐患排查治理，夯实基础防治工作；二是外包工程管理领域，重点整治无资质承揽、挂靠经营、违法转 包等突出问题；三是新建煤矿安全领域，严格把控设计审查、建设监管和竣工验收等关键环节。通过系 统化治理和精准化施策，切实防范化解重大安全风险。 （来源：内蒙古日报） 目前，专项整治工作已在全区范围内全面启动。此次专项整治行动将坚持问题导向与目标导向相结合， 聚焦现场管理薄弱环节和制度执行不到位问题，采取"四不两直"方式开展督导检查，并对发现的重大隐 患实行挂牌督办、限期整改、销号管理；对违法违规行为依法从严查处，坚决遏制重特大事故发生，切 实筑牢煤矿安全生产防线。 转自：内蒙古日报 本报2月26日讯 （记者 帅政）记者从内蒙古自治区矿山安全监管局获悉，当前正值节后复工复产关键时 期，该局印发《煤矿瓦斯防治专项整治工作方案》和《煤矿外包工程及新建煤矿安全生产专项整治工作 方案》，在全区范围内部署开展煤矿安全生产专项整治工作。 ...

Group 1 - The first extraordinary general meeting of Anhui Hengyuan Coal Power Co., Ltd. was held on February 26, 2026, at the company's conference room in Suzhou City [2] - There were no rejected resolutions during the meeting [2] - The meeting was attended by 8 current directors and 4 directors who were present, while some independent directors were absent due to work reasons [3] Group 2 - The proposal regarding the expected daily related transactions for 2026 was approved, with the voting results showing that the number of shares in favor exceeded half of the total shares with voting rights present at the meeting [4] - The related shareholder, Anhui Wanbei Coal Power Group Co., Ltd., abstained from voting on this related matter [4] - The meeting and its procedures complied with the Company Law, Shareholders' Meeting Rules, and the company's articles of association, making the resolutions legally valid [6]

Core Insights - The coal industry has benefited from supply control measures since July last year, leading to a decrease in production and a subsequent rise in coal prices, which have increased by nearly 40% from their June lows [1] - Indonesia's coal production target for 2026 has been reduced to 600 million tons, which is expected to decrease exports to China by approximately 25%, further supporting domestic coal prices [2] - Historical data indicates that the coal sector tends to yield excess returns from March to August, and the current market conditions may present a favorable opportunity for investment in coal stocks [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since July last year, coal supply has been effectively controlled, resulting in negative year-on-year growth rates in coal production from July to December, with production figures of 118,000 tons and 127,000 tons in Q3 and Q4 respectively, reflecting declines of 3.7% and 1.7% [1] - The expectation of improved supply conditions has led traders to stockpile coal, pushing prices up to around 820 yuan per ton by the end of November, although prices fell back to 680 yuan per ton by year-end [1] - Domestic coal supply is not expected to significantly increase to offset the reduction in Indonesian exports, which is projected to support coal prices in the short term [2] Investment Outlook - The coal sector is currently experiencing a cyclical uptrend, with the potential for excess returns driven by supply-demand mismatches, particularly due to simultaneous production cuts domestically and internationally [3] - As of the end of last year, the allocation of coal stocks by actively managed equity funds was at a low of 0.34%, indicating potential for increased institutional interest in coal as a defensive asset amid market risks [3] - The upcoming reduction in Indonesian coal production in March may accelerate the bullish trend in the coal market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of coking coal options on January 16, 2026, has provided new momentum for high-quality development in the real economy, with initial signs of price discovery and risk management functions being realized [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal options have been operating smoothly in their first month, with a close linkage between spot and futures prices, effectively assisting in risk management [3] - As of February 24, the coking coal options recorded a total trading volume of 1.1843 million contracts and a transaction value of 3.137 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 53,800 contracts [3] - The implied volatility of the main contract was 42.81%, which is approximately 5 percentage points higher than the historical volatility of the underlying futures contract [3] Group 2: Industry Adoption - Zhongji Ningbo Group has actively utilized coking coal options for inventory management, effectively mitigating the risk of inventory devaluation [2] - Shanxi Yaxin Energy Group has achieved both risk avoidance and profit enhancement by employing a covered call strategy with coking coal options [2] - The introduction of coking coal options has enriched the risk management toolbox for the coal and steel industry, allowing companies to tailor strategies to different operational scenarios [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry insiders express optimism about the future development of coking coal options, anticipating increased market activity as companies seek to lock in raw material prices and future profits [4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to enhance collaboration with industry organizations and leading enterprises to strengthen market cultivation and investor education [4] - As the market matures and liquidity improves, the risk management value of coking coal options is expected to become more pronounced [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Energy Luxi Mining is focusing on optimizing coal resource recovery and enhancing production efficiency through innovative mining techniques and precise management strategies [1][2] Group 1: Production Optimization - The company is implementing a strategy of "fine mining" to maximize the value of its scarce coking coal resources, particularly in the 4312 working face, which is the main mining area [1] - Innovative mining techniques such as the "two sides smooth, middle lying" differentiated recovery process are being utilized to address industry challenges like low recovery rates and difficult roof control [1] Group 2: Safety and Resource Management - A full-process closed-loop management mechanism is being constructed, focusing on geological assessment, process optimization, data control, and quality inspection to enhance the precision and standardization of coal recovery [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of resource recovery management as a means to increase efficiency, implementing strict measures for on-site management and regular geological surveys to adjust mining levels [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record liquidity of $521 million at the end of Q4 2025, up over 275% year-over-year [29] - Q4 cash costs per ton sold were $92, marking the strongest performance in four years, with cash margins of $24 per ton [30][31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $9 million, compared to $8 million in Q3, despite a 17% decline in U.S. high-vol metallurgical coal indices [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Elk Creek complex achieved the lowest costs since Q4 2021, averaging $80 per ton, with strong productivity levels [5][7] - The company is poised to grow total sales for the sixth consecutive year while lowering overall cash costs for the third year in a row [7] - Met coal sales for 2026 are committed at roughly 80% of production, with strong domestic and export pricing [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Australian premium low-vol indices increased to approximately $240 per ton, up more than $40 from Q4 2025, while average low-vol and high-vol indices rose nearly 10% [8] - The U.S. high-vol indices fell another 4% in Q4 versus Q3, but the company managed to improve financial results despite this decline [32] - North American customers account for 1.1 million tons at an average fixed price of $142 per ton, with 2 million export tons committed at index-linked pricing [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning to a dual platform operation focusing on both met coal and critical minerals, with plans to establish separate corporate entities for each segment [18] - A new proprietary technology breakthrough, carbochlorination, is expected to enhance product recovery and reduce capital and operating costs [10][11] - The company is accelerating low-vol growth projects at Berwind and Maben complexes, moving them from 2027 into 2026 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing the best balance sheet and liquidity in the company's history, alongside improving coal markets [35] - The company anticipates a meaningful working capital tailwind in 2026, especially in the latter half of the year [31] - Management highlighted the importance of the gallium market for semiconductors, indicating a shift in focus towards high-purity gallium and away from scandium [58] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $1 billion in capital in the second half of 2025, significantly strengthening its balance sheet [19] - The Brook Mine is expected to be a key resource for the semiconductor industry, with a focus on high-purity gallium and other critical minerals [15][48] - The company is constructing a pilot plant testing facility in Wyoming, expected to be operational by summer 2026 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in Brook Mine technology and decision-making process - Management indicated that the decision to pivot to the new flow sheet was based on anticipated improvements in economics and product recovery, particularly for gallium [51][54] Question: Impact on offtake agreements and timing - The shift towards a gallium-centric product slate is expected to enhance discussions with potential partners and government stakeholders [56][58] Question: Engineering enhancements and NPV implications - Management confirmed that the new flow sheet is expected to materially increase the value of the project compared to previous estimates [62][64] Question: Clarification on the new flow sheet and confidence level - The carbochlorination process is a proven technique, and the company has engaged independent laboratories for testing, which has yielded promising results [68][69] Question: Economics of gallium extraction compared to other methods - The new flow sheet is expected to significantly improve gallium recovery and purity, making it competitive with other extraction methods [72]