Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].

Group 1 - The Eurozone construction PMI for June decreased to 45.2 from 45.6 in May, marking the lowest level in three months, indicating significant pressure on the construction industry due to a sharp decline in new orders [1][3] - Germany's construction PMI rose slightly from 44.4 in May to 44.8 in June, showing a slight easing of downward pressure, with civil engineering activities experiencing growth for the first time since August 2023 [1][3] - France's construction PMI fell from 43.1 in May to 41.6 in June, reflecting the most severe contraction since February 2024, with residential construction shrinking at the fastest rate since September 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - Italy's construction PMI decreased slightly from 50.5 in May to 50.2 in June, but it remained above the neutral level, supported by an increase in new orders and public tenders [2][3] - The construction industry in Italy experienced moderate growth in residential and civil engineering sectors, with companies expanding hiring and restoring subcontractor use due to increased project activity [2][3] - Despite challenges, Italian companies' confidence reached the highest level since May 2024, driven by strong new order growth and marketing efforts [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of Hengchang Group International, which saw a significant stock price increase despite a recent decline in revenue and a negative net profit [1][2] - As of July 4, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.64%, while Hengchang Group International's stock price rose by 31.94% to HKD 0.475 per share, with a trading volume of 2.878 million shares and a turnover of HKD 1.2835 million [1] - Over the past month, Hengchang Group International has experienced a cumulative decline of 12.2%, but year-to-date, it has achieved a cumulative increase of 63.64%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 19.99% [1] Group 2 - Financial data shows that for the year ending December 31, 2024, Hengchang Group International reported total revenue of HKD 50.6118 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -HKD 15.1028 million, an increase of 41.02% [1] - The company's gross margin stands at 6.39%, and its debt-to-asset ratio is 32.84% [1] - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Hengchang Group International, and its price-to-earnings ratio is -1.67, ranking 191st in the industry, which has an average P/E ratio of 8.55 [2] Group 3 - Hengchang Group International primarily operates in Singapore, providing electrical engineering services, solar energy business (supply and installation of solar photovoltaic components and equipment), and distribution system services (supply of distribution systems including distribution boards, junction boxes, cables, and switches) in China [2] - The company is recognized as one of the established electrical engineering firms for public housing projects in Singapore and is a participant in the solar energy and distribution system sectors in China [2] - The competitive advantage of the company lies in its experienced management team, which offers reliable and cost-competitive solutions [2]

7月4日，截至港股收盘，恒生指数下跌0.64%，报23916.06点。庄皇集团公司（08501.HK）收报0.42港 元/股，上涨27.27%，成交量5.6万股，成交额2.32万港元，振幅18.18%。 行业估值方面，建筑行业市盈率（TTM）平均值为8.55倍，行业中值0.42倍。庄皇集团公司市盈率-16.6 倍，行业排名第135位；其他浦江国际（02060.HK）为1.01倍、HPC HOLDINGS（01742.HK）为1.05 倍、饮食天王环球-新（08619.HK）为1.09倍、饮食天王环球-旧（08561.HK）为1.45倍、靛蓝星 （08373.HK）为1.58倍。 财务数据显示，截至2025年3月31日，庄皇集团公司实现营业总收入3.86亿元，同比减少2.17%；归母净 利润-366.92万元，同比减少190.43%；毛利率4.72%，资产负债率50.31%。 本文源自：金融界 机构评级方面，目前暂无机构对该股做出投资评级建议。 作者：行情君 资料显示，庄皇集团公司成立于2009年,总部位于香港,于2018年在香港联合交易所有限公司的GEM成功 上市,股份代码为8501。多年来,本集团以'承传康 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Central Enterprises 50 Index has shown a mixed performance in the A-share market, with a recent increase of 0.58% and a year-to-date rise of 0.23% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai Central Enterprises 50 Index closed at 1793.77 points with a trading volume of 50.014 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 3.13%, and over the last three months, it has risen by 4.89% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises the top 50 listed companies controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Ministry of Finance, based on average market capitalization and trading volume [1] - The index was established on December 31, 2008, with a base value of 1000.0 points [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China Merchants Bank (11.7%), Yangtze Power (7.46%), CITIC Securities (5.48%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (5.43%), Bank of Communications (4.36%), Agricultural Bank of China (3.85%), SMIC (3.48%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (3.39%), China Shenhua Energy (2.7%), and China State Construction Engineering (2.46%) [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector distribution of the index holdings is as follows: Financials (42.21%), Industrials (21.88%), Utilities (11.17%), Energy (7.62%), Communication Services (6.50%), Information Technology (5.00%), Materials (3.24%), Consumer Discretionary (1.20%), and Real Estate (1.18%) [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment Rules - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - New samples ranked within the top 40 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked within the top 60 are favored for retention [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Housing Authority is actively promoting innovative construction technologies to increase the supply of affordable housing, with a focus on smart construction and green building practices [1][2] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Hong Kong government is emphasizing the theme "Building Together, Smartly" to enhance collaboration in smart construction and green building with international partners, particularly in Portugal [1] - The Housing Authority aims to construct 308,000 public housing units over the next decade, presenting a significant opportunity to implement innovative technologies in public housing development [1] Group 2: Environmental and Technological Focus - The Housing Authority is committed to achieving "Gold" or above ratings in green building assessments for all new projects, utilizing Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) and Building Information Modeling (BIM) to enhance efficiency and reduce waste [2] - Various green measures are being implemented, including smart lighting control systems, LED lighting, and solar photovoltaic systems to improve energy efficiency [2] - The use of IoT and artificial intelligence in estate management is expected to enhance the quality and efficiency of housing management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao International Cruise Port Shipping Center project has successfully topped out, with a total investment of approximately 1.625 billion yuan and a planned completion date of June 2027, aiming to enhance the regional headquarters economy and promote international shipping trade [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project covers an area of about 89,000 square meters and has a height of 180 meters, designed to create a modern urban image through its unique architectural form [2]. - The shipping center will serve as a regional headquarters economic center, leveraging the demonstration effect of the Qingdao Cruise Port area [2]. Group 2: Construction Challenges and Techniques - The project team overcame multiple challenges, including limited site space and rainy season construction, by using cantilever scaffolding and optimizing construction organization with BIM technology [3]. - High assembly rates were achieved through the use of structural reinforcement molds and prefabricated slabs, which helped reduce the overall weight of the structure [3]. Group 3: Achievements and Recognition - The project has achieved multiple technical milestones, including 11 patents and 4 construction methods, and has been recognized as a national AAA-level safety and civilized standard construction site [4]. - It has also won several awards, including first prizes for excellent QC group results and a second prize in the Shandong Province construction industry new technology application innovation competition [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for June, highlighting expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy [4][5][6]. Economic Indicators - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, a decrease from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [4]. - Year-over-year wage growth is anticipated to remain steady at 3.9%, while month-over-month growth is expected to slow from 0.4% in May to 0.3% [4]. Labor Market Trends - There are signs of a cooling labor market, with a notable increase in continuing unemployment claims, reaching nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [9]. - The ADP report indicates a surprising reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023 [9]. Unemployment Rate Predictions - There is a divergence among economists regarding the unemployment rate, with some predicting it could rise to 4.4% due to weak job growth and challenges in the summer hiring season for college graduates [10]. - Factors such as immigration policies and labor force participation rates are influencing unemployment metrics, with some analysts suggesting that the actual unemployment rate could be higher if not for a decline in labor force participation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Economists are closely monitoring various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, for signs of employment trends [12]. - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [12]. Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has recently reached new highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts and trade agreements [15]. - A disappointing jobs report could trigger a sell-off in the stock market, with predictions that a non-farm payroll figure below 100,000 or an unemployment rate of 4.4% could lead to at least a 1% decline in stocks [15]. Gold Market Outlook - The article suggests that if the non-farm payroll data is below expectations, it could lead to a new round of dollar selling and increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which would be bullish for gold prices [16]. - Conversely, better-than-expected employment data could alleviate concerns about the labor market and delay expectations for aggressive Fed easing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold [17].

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]