Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) has remained stable, with a mild increase of 0.5% from September to October, indicating a rising trend in aluminum prices supported by various factors [1] - Following a significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which produces about 40% of the aluminum sheets for the automotive industry, the overall outlook for U.S. aluminum prices has changed, with Midwest premiums reaching a historical high of $0.77 per pound as of October 6 [2][3] - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 2.61% last month, reaching its highest level since March, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices among other base metals [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - The fire at Novelis has severely weakened U.S. aluminum production capacity, with the plant expected to remain offline until early next year, impacting the automotive supply chain significantly [2] - U.S. aluminum imports have been declining, with a 3.69% decrease in aluminum sheet imports from February to August compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to domestic supply tightness [4] - Overall, aluminum product imports have decreased by 10.17%, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer of aluminum, necessitating overseas supply to meet demand [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has intensified the impact of supply disruptions on the market, leading buyers to increasingly seek domestic producers for raw materials [5] - Despite the current upward trend in aluminum prices, ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening demand environment may challenge the sustainability of this trend in the coming months [6][7]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [2] Research Team - Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team, including Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, and Zhang Lei [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Concerns about potential additional tariffs between China and the US may put pressure on aluminum prices. Different segments of the aluminum industry (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys) face various supply - demand situations and price trends. Due to factors such as Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Sino - US trade conflicts, prices in these segments are expected to fluctuate widely. Appropriate investment strategies are proposed for each segment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The commissioning of domestic and overseas projects may increase alumina production in October. For example, the first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, and the Yangjiagou bauxite mine of Lvliang Mining (annual capacity of 600,000 tons) was put into operation at the end of August. Overseas, the third - phase 1,000,000 - ton alumina project of Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025 [3] - **Price and investment strategy**: Domestic alumina production is in the red, and the supply - demand outlook is loose, making the price likely to fall rather than rise. Investors are advised to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 [3] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in October. Projects like the second - phase energy - saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai's 50,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity started to restart, and overseas projects such as Huatong Cable's 120,000 - ton project in Angola may increase imports [4] - **Demand - side factors**: The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased last week, except for the possible increase in the production of remelted rods (aluminum poles) in October [4] - **Price and investment strategy**: With the rising expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut and the increasing proportion of molten aluminum production, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices, paying attention to support and resistance levels for both Shanghai and London aluminum [5] 3.3 Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may decrease in October. Although the production of domestic scrap aluminum may increase, the import may decrease due to overseas competition and geopolitical issues. Projects like Yongchun Qingyuan Metal's and Guizhou Guangyu Aluminum's are put into production, but overall production is expected to decline [6] - **Price and investment strategy**: Given the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the tight supply - demand outlook for domestic scrap aluminum, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys lightly, paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [6]

Group 1 - The core transaction on October 13 involved a block trade of 11 million shares of Tianshan Aluminum, with a transaction value of 127 million yuan, at a price of 11.58 yuan, representing a discount of 0.94% compared to the closing price of the day [2][3] - Over the past three months, Tianshan Aluminum has recorded a total of three block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 809 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Tianshan Aluminum on the day of the transaction was 11.69 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.02%, with a daily turnover rate of 1.32% and a total trading volume of 630 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Tianshan Aluminum is 377 million yuan, which has decreased by 157 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 29.41% [3] - Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. was established on November 3, 1997, with a registered capital of 46.52 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - A total of 78 stocks in the A-share market experienced block trading today, with a total transaction value of 2.925 billion yuan [1] - The top three stocks by transaction value were SF Holding, Zhongwei Company, and Guangqi Technology, with transaction values of 717 million yuan, 357 million yuan, and 299 million yuan respectively [1] - Among the stocks, 20 were traded at par, 7 at a premium, and 51 at a discount; Midea Group, Northern Shares, and Qingdao Beer had the highest premium rates of 10.71%, 10.68%, and 10.12% respectively [1] Group 2 - The top stocks by institutional buying were Zhongwei Company (354 million yuan), Tianshan Aluminum (127 million yuan), and Jinli Permanent Magnet (72.22 million yuan) [2] - The leading stocks by institutional selling included Cangge Mining (11.30 million yuan), Baiwei Storage (8.94 million yuan), and Ningde Times (7.53 million yuan) [2]

Core Insights - Tianshan Aluminum conducted a block trade of 11 million shares on October 13, with a transaction value of 127 million yuan, accounting for 16.82% of the total trading volume for the day [1][2] - The transaction price was 11.58 yuan, which represents a discount of 0.94% compared to the market closing price of 11.69 yuan [1] Summary by Category Trading Activity - The block trade involved 11 million shares of Tianshan Aluminum [1][2] - The total transaction amount was 127 million yuan [1] Price Information - The transaction price was set at 11.58 yuan per share [1][2] - This price reflects a discount of 0.94% from the market closing price of 11.69 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market is experiencing a significant surge, with aluminum potentially becoming a key player despite its relatively low price increase this year compared to other metals [1][2]. Demand Factors - The substantial rise in copper prices, which have increased over 20% this year, is expected to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute material [2]. - Aluminum is recognized as one of the four critical metals needed for the transition to renewable energy, alongside copper, lithium, and steel [4]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is a major growth area for aluminum demand, with EVs using approximately 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles [5]. - Aluminum plays a crucial role in the automotive industry, particularly in popular models like the Ford F-150, which has adopted aluminum to reduce weight [6]. Supply Constraints - Despite increasing demand, the supply of aluminum is constrained by electricity availability, which is essential for aluminum production [7]. - China's aluminum production is nearing a government-imposed cap of 45 million tons, leading to expectations of a shift from oversupply to potential shortages [7]. - The U.S. aluminum industry faces challenges in securing electricity contracts due to competition from tech companies, which are willing to pay significantly higher rates for power [8]. - Analysts predict that the global surplus of primary aluminum will decrease rapidly by 2026, leading to a projected shortfall of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software is seen as a significant escalation in the US-China trade conflict, which could have profound implications for bilateral trade and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Rates - Since the onset of the trade war, US tariff revenue has surged, becoming the fourth largest source of federal revenue, following individual income tax, social security tax, and corporate income tax [6] - From January to June 2025, the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2.2% to 8.9%, with a notable rise in April due to expanded tariffs on a global scale [8][14] - By August 2025, US tariff revenue reached $144.4 billion, 2.8 times that of the previous year, accounting for 4.0% of federal revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 2: Tariff Rates by Trade Partner - The actual average tariff rate imposed by the US on China reached 37.4% by June 2025, with significant increases observed for labor-intensive goods and products affected by Section 232 tariffs [24][29] - The average tariff rates for Japan and South Korea were 15.3% and 12.0%, respectively, while rates for the EU, Vietnam, and India ranged between 5% and 10% [24] - The US has seen a decline in its reliance on Chinese imports, with the share of imports from China dropping to 9.4% of total imports, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [28] Group 3: Trade Performance and Deficits - In the first seven months of 2025, US imports grew by 10.7% and exports by 4.8%, but the trade deficit expanded by 21.3% [19] - The US experienced a decline in trade volume with China and Canada, with imports from China down by 18.9% and exports down by 20.2% [19][20] - Despite high tariffs on China, the overall trade deficit with other countries has increased, indicating that the US still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand [20] Group 4: Future Tariff Trends - The actual tariff rates are expected to converge with nominal rates as various loopholes and exemptions are closed, leading to an increase in effective tariff rates across different economies [33][34] - Factors such as preemptive imports and exemptions for certain goods have contributed to the current lower effective tariff rates, but these are anticipated to diminish over time [33][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the expectation of asset securitization significantly boosts stock prices, particularly for companies under the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) such as Yuanda Environmental Protection, Electric Power Investment and Financing, and Jilin Electric Power, which are anticipated to have substantial market value increases due to potential asset injections or mergers and acquisitions [1][2][4] Group 2 - SPIC plans to restructure assets among its subsidiaries, including listed companies like Shanghai Electric Power and Yuanda Environmental Protection, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and market mechanisms [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, SPIC's thermal power installed capacity is 83.53 million kilowatts, and hydropower installed capacity is 26.58 million kilowatts, with a current asset securitization ratio of approximately 51.4% [2] - The group has a broad asset securitization space, with significant water, nuclear, aluminum, and hydrogen assets yet to be listed, indicating long-term potential for asset securitization [4] Group 3 - Recent announcements from Electric Power Investment and Financing and Yuanda Environmental Protection regarding major asset restructurings suggest a strategic shift towards integrating nuclear and hydropower assets, enhancing the group's overall asset value [4] - The group has undergone several strategic mergers and restructurings since its establishment, indicating a clear path towards professional business integration and financial asset listings [3] - The group has developed a comprehensive aluminum industry chain, with plans for further acquisitions and restructuring to enhance the integration of aluminum assets within Electric Power Investment [4] Group 4 - Investment recommendations highlight the potential of Electric Power Investment (stable profitability in coal, power, and aluminum integration), Electric Power Investment and Financing (future nuclear power operation platform), and Yuanda Environmental Protection (domestic hydropower asset integration platform) [5] - Shanghai Electric Power and Jilin Electric Power are positioned to become key platforms for international and renewable energy asset integration, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed outlook for various metals, with specific attention to the strategic importance of rare earths and the impact of supply chain adjustments on prices [1][5]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [2]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [2]. - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises increased by 1.41 percentage points to 53.04%, with expectations for further increases next week [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [3]. - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, influenced by demand release and unclear orders [3]. Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [4][5]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the U.S. government shutdown and economic indicators reflecting a slowdown in employment growth [4][5]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89% this week, with China's control over rare earths being upgraded, enhancing the sector's strategic attributes [1][5]. - The implementation of the "Interim Measures" is expected to gradually show effects on supply adjustments [1][5]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the sector, highlighting companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [1][5]. Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering, indicating a potential price turning point [5]. - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant wires may boost demand for antimony [5]. Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16% due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, leading to supply disruptions [6]. - The report anticipates that tin prices will remain strong despite macroeconomic fluctuations [6]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged, with a 17.8% increase to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]