Core Viewpoint - The global metal market is experiencing a significant surge, with aluminum potentially becoming a key player despite its relatively low price increase this year compared to other metals [1][2]. Demand Factors - The substantial rise in copper prices, which have increased over 20% this year, is expected to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute material [2]. - Aluminum is recognized as one of the four critical metals needed for the transition to renewable energy, alongside copper, lithium, and steel [4]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is a major growth area for aluminum demand, with EVs using approximately 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles [5]. - Aluminum plays a crucial role in the automotive industry, particularly in popular models like the Ford F-150, which has adopted aluminum to reduce weight [6]. Supply Constraints - Despite increasing demand, the supply of aluminum is constrained by electricity availability, which is essential for aluminum production [7]. - China's aluminum production is nearing a government-imposed cap of 45 million tons, leading to expectations of a shift from oversupply to potential shortages [7]. - The U.S. aluminum industry faces challenges in securing electricity contracts due to competition from tech companies, which are willing to pay significantly higher rates for power [8]. - Analysts predict that the global surplus of primary aluminum will decrease rapidly by 2026, leading to a projected shortfall of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software is seen as a significant escalation in the US-China trade conflict, which could have profound implications for bilateral trade and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Rates - Since the onset of the trade war, US tariff revenue has surged, becoming the fourth largest source of federal revenue, following individual income tax, social security tax, and corporate income tax [6] - From January to June 2025, the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2.2% to 8.9%, with a notable rise in April due to expanded tariffs on a global scale [8][14] - By August 2025, US tariff revenue reached $144.4 billion, 2.8 times that of the previous year, accounting for 4.0% of federal revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 2: Tariff Rates by Trade Partner - The actual average tariff rate imposed by the US on China reached 37.4% by June 2025, with significant increases observed for labor-intensive goods and products affected by Section 232 tariffs [24][29] - The average tariff rates for Japan and South Korea were 15.3% and 12.0%, respectively, while rates for the EU, Vietnam, and India ranged between 5% and 10% [24] - The US has seen a decline in its reliance on Chinese imports, with the share of imports from China dropping to 9.4% of total imports, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [28] Group 3: Trade Performance and Deficits - In the first seven months of 2025, US imports grew by 10.7% and exports by 4.8%, but the trade deficit expanded by 21.3% [19] - The US experienced a decline in trade volume with China and Canada, with imports from China down by 18.9% and exports down by 20.2% [19][20] - Despite high tariffs on China, the overall trade deficit with other countries has increased, indicating that the US still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand [20] Group 4: Future Tariff Trends - The actual tariff rates are expected to converge with nominal rates as various loopholes and exemptions are closed, leading to an increase in effective tariff rates across different economies [33][34] - Factors such as preemptive imports and exemptions for certain goods have contributed to the current lower effective tariff rates, but these are anticipated to diminish over time [33][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the expectation of asset securitization significantly boosts stock prices, particularly for companies under the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) such as Yuanda Environmental Protection, Electric Power Investment and Financing, and Jilin Electric Power, which are anticipated to have substantial market value increases due to potential asset injections or mergers and acquisitions [1][2][4] Group 2 - SPIC plans to restructure assets among its subsidiaries, including listed companies like Shanghai Electric Power and Yuanda Environmental Protection, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and market mechanisms [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, SPIC's thermal power installed capacity is 83.53 million kilowatts, and hydropower installed capacity is 26.58 million kilowatts, with a current asset securitization ratio of approximately 51.4% [2] - The group has a broad asset securitization space, with significant water, nuclear, aluminum, and hydrogen assets yet to be listed, indicating long-term potential for asset securitization [4] Group 3 - Recent announcements from Electric Power Investment and Financing and Yuanda Environmental Protection regarding major asset restructurings suggest a strategic shift towards integrating nuclear and hydropower assets, enhancing the group's overall asset value [4] - The group has undergone several strategic mergers and restructurings since its establishment, indicating a clear path towards professional business integration and financial asset listings [3] - The group has developed a comprehensive aluminum industry chain, with plans for further acquisitions and restructuring to enhance the integration of aluminum assets within Electric Power Investment [4] Group 4 - Investment recommendations highlight the potential of Electric Power Investment (stable profitability in coal, power, and aluminum integration), Electric Power Investment and Financing (future nuclear power operation platform), and Yuanda Environmental Protection (domestic hydropower asset integration platform) [5] - Shanghai Electric Power and Jilin Electric Power are positioned to become key platforms for international and renewable energy asset integration, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed outlook for various metals, with specific attention to the strategic importance of rare earths and the impact of supply chain adjustments on prices [1][5]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [2]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [2]. - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises increased by 1.41 percentage points to 53.04%, with expectations for further increases next week [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [3]. - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, influenced by demand release and unclear orders [3]. Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [4][5]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the U.S. government shutdown and economic indicators reflecting a slowdown in employment growth [4][5]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89% this week, with China's control over rare earths being upgraded, enhancing the sector's strategic attributes [1][5]. - The implementation of the "Interim Measures" is expected to gradually show effects on supply adjustments [1][5]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the sector, highlighting companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [1][5]. Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering, indicating a potential price turning point [5]. - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant wires may boost demand for antimony [5]. Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16% due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, leading to supply disruptions [6]. - The report anticipates that tin prices will remain strong despite macroeconomic fluctuations [6]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged, with a 17.8% increase to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]

Core Insights - The forum titled "2025 Futures and Spot Integration to Promote High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry" will be held on October 16 in Zhengzhou, focusing on the future development paths of the aluminum industry [1] - The event aims to create a complete ecological loop covering research, production, trade, and finance by gathering industry leaders, experts, and traders [1] - The forum addresses the challenges and opportunities in the aluminum industry amid global economic adjustments and domestic industrial upgrades, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and risk management through futures and derivatives [1] Group 1 - The forum will feature keynote speeches from industry experts, including Dr. Wei Hongjie from China Aluminum International Trade Group, who will analyze the development trends of China's aluminum industry under complex international and domestic conditions [2] - Analyst Jiang Xinbin from Zheshang Futures will focus on market dynamics, identifying core factors influencing aluminum price fluctuations and potential trading opportunities for risk management and investment decisions [2] - Chen Penghui, Chairman of Gongyi City Kangyi Material Trade Co., will share insights on how companies can enhance resilience and innovate business models through futures-spot integration strategies [2] Group 2 - A roundtable discussion will involve representatives from leading aluminum processing companies, exploring the current state of the aluminum industry and the practical applications of futures tools in stabilizing raw material supply, optimizing inventory management, and mitigating price risks [2] - The forum will also present the "Golden Great Wall" awards for outstanding risk management cases and service providers, recognizing exemplary applications of futures-spot integration in supporting the real economy and promoting innovative models [3] - The awards aim to set industry benchmarks and encourage more companies to adopt risk management tools for high-quality development [3]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 贸易战恶化对铝基本面影响极为有限 重要数据 铝 截至2025-10-10，伦铝收盘于2746.0美元/吨，沪铝主力收盘于20980元/吨，华东现货升贴水-50元/吨，中原地区现 货升贴水-80元/吨，佛山地区现货升贴水-115元/吨。 LME铝现货升贴水(0-3)-1.6美元/吨。 供应：截至2025-10-10，电解铝建成产能4523.2万吨，周度环比+0.0万吨，运行产能4445.4万吨，周度环比+1.5万吨， 行业开工率98.28%。 需求：根据钢联数据统计，铝棒周度产量35.94万吨，周度环比变化-0.05万吨，铝板带箔周度产量36.34万吨，周度 环比变化-0.07万吨。根据上海有色数据统计，铝线缆龙头企业开工率64.00%，周度环比变化-3.00%，铝板带龙头 企业开工率68.00%，周度环比变化-1.00%，铝箔龙头企业开工率72.30%，周度环比变化-0.30%，铝型材开工率 53.60%，周度环比变化-1.00%。 库存：截至2025-10-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.9万吨，周度变化+5.7万吨，铝棒库存13.9万吨，周度 变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fire at Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, which supplies about 40% of the aluminum sheets used in the U.S. automotive industry, will halt production until early next year, significantly impacting major automakers like Ford [1] Group 1: Importance of Aluminum - Aluminum is referred to as the "universal metal" in manufacturing due to its lightweight and high-strength properties, essential for various applications from cans to aerospace and electric vehicles [3] - The demand for aluminum in electric vehicles is particularly high, as reducing vehicle weight can enhance battery efficiency and extend driving range [5][6] Group 2: Global Aluminum Production - China is the largest producer of aluminum, accounting for nearly 60% of the global output, with a projected production of 71.81 million tons in 2024, while the U.S. only produces 670,000 tons, less than 1% of the global total [6] - The U.S. aluminum industry has declined from producing 4.65 million tons in 1980 to its current levels due to various challenges [6] Group 3: Challenges Facing U.S. Aluminum Industry - The U.S. faces significant challenges, including limited domestic bauxite reserves and high electricity costs, which account for about 50% of aluminum production costs [8] - The electricity cost for U.S. aluminum production is approximately $550 per ton, nearly double that of Canada and China, making it difficult for U.S. producers to compete [8] - Efforts to protect the U.S. aluminum industry through tariffs have led to increased costs for downstream industries, exacerbating the situation [11] Group 4: Recycling and Supply Chain Issues - The U.S. has increased its recycled aluminum production, surpassing primary aluminum output, but still relies on imports to meet demand [11] - The U.S. aluminum industry is caught in a cycle of raw material shortages, high costs, ineffective tariffs, and electricity supply issues [13] Group 5: China's Aluminum Supply Concerns - Despite being the largest producer, China also faces risks due to its limited bauxite reserves, relying heavily on imports, which can be disrupted by geopolitical events [16][18] - The stability of aluminum supply is critical for key industries like automotive and aerospace, prompting China to invest in domestic mining and recycling initiatives [20]

Core Points - The Argentine government has officially announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives until December 31, 2025, specifically for countries that impose at least 45% import tariffs on these products [1] - This decision aims to enhance export capacity and industry competitiveness, signaling a shift towards a more open trade policy [1] - This adjustment is part of a series of recent changes in Argentina's trade policy, which included a brief suspension of export taxes on agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and biodiesel to boost foreign exchange income, although that measure was reversed within a week [1]

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临2025-056 中国铝业股份有限公司 2025年半年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 每股分配比例 2.分派对象： （1）截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以 下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的公司全体A股股东。 （2）公司H股股东的现金红利派发不适用本公告。H股股东红利派发事宜请见公司在香港联交所网站 （www.hkexnews.hk）发布的相关公告。 3.分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本17,155,632,078股为基数，每股派发现金红利人民币0.123元 （含税），共计派发现金红利人民币2,110,142,745.59元（含税）。 A股每股现金红利人民币0.123元（含税） 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年6月26日召开的2024年年度股东会审议通过了《关 于提请股东会授权公司董事会决 ...