【尿素期货短期偏空震荡，后续工业需求或带来行情转机】今日，尿素期货低开低走，日内承压运行。 现货市场情绪降温，价格趋于稳定。 从基本面看，近期尿素日产维持在19万吨左右。夏季后续产量预 计小幅减少，但难改供应过剩格局。 需求方面，农业需求零星拿货，复合肥工厂开工率攀升且将持续 上行。后期对尿素需求增加，但当前市场情绪不高，工厂适量拿货，不急于采购原料。 本期装置检修 增加，尿素库存开始去化。近期反内卷举措刺激煤炭上涨，支撑尿素成本端。 出口消息扰动盘面价 格，下游普遍观望，情绪谨慎。短期尿素期货偏空震荡，但后续工业需求有增量，行情下方空间有限。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The current supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows that agricultural demand is mainly sporadic purchases, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise, which will increase the demand for urea in the future. However, the current market sentiment is low, and factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. The inventory has started to decline, and the anti - involution measures in the coal market support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is generally on the sidelines. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited due to the potential increase in industrial demand [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly in summer. Agricultural demand is sporadic, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise. The inventory has started to decline, and the coal market's anti - involution measures support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is cautious. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1,749 yuan/ton, closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume decreased by 7,152 lots to 115,300 lots. Among the top 20 institutional positions, the long - position decreased by 4,077 lots, and the short - position decreased by 5,702 lots. Some institutions increased or decreased their net long or short positions. Spot: The spot market sentiment cooled, and prices stabilized. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][5] Basis and Supply - Demand Data - Basis: Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the September contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On August 7, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.62%. Demand: From August 1 to August 7, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the previous week, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [9][10][14] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

Core Insights - The company XinYangFeng (000902) reported a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 11.63% year-on-year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 951 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.98% [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period was 9,397,916,948.33 yuan, compared to 8,418,765,451.87 yuan in the same period last year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 951,367,090.78 yuan, up from 737,585,034.00 yuan year-on-year [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 911,543,609.90 yuan, compared to 711,287,157.07 yuan in the previous year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1,004,041,395.90 yuan, slightly down from 1,019,159,358.90 yuan year-on-year [2] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share were 0.7582 yuan, an increase from 0.5878 yuan in the previous year [2] - Diluted earnings per share were 0.7391 yuan, compared to 0.5765 yuan last year [2] Return on Equity - The weighted average return on equity was 8.65%, up from 7.45% in the previous year [2] Asset and Equity Growth - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were 18.348 billion yuan, a 0.64% increase from the end of the previous year [2] - Net assets attributable to shareholders were 11.166 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.58% from the previous year [2] Expense Management - Sales expenses amounted to 244 million yuan, a decrease of 1.45% year-on-year [2] - Management expenses were 113 million yuan, an increase of 5.90% year-on-year [2] - Financial expenses rose to 24.736 million yuan, up 23.55% year-on-year [2] - Research and development expenses surged to 124 million yuan, a significant increase of 158.14% year-on-year [2]

新洋丰（SZ 000902，收盘价：14.6元）8月7日晚间发布半年度业绩报告称，2025年上半年营业收入约 93.98亿元，同比增加11.63%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约9.51亿元，同比增加28.98%；基本每股 收益0.7582元，同比增加28.99%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

尿素日报 | 2025-08-07 交投气氛转弱，尿素震荡走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-06，尿素主力收盘1750元/吨（-22）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：40 元/吨（+32）；河南基差：40元/吨（+32）；江苏基差：40元/吨（+22）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+10），出口利润 955元/吨（-21）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-08-06，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为88.76 万吨（-2.97），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-06，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.53日（+0.41）。 前期期货市场交易印度尿素高价招标以及出口相关规定放松，市场气氛有所转弱，尿素震荡走低。尿素日均产量 处于较高 ...

Core Insights - CF Industries reported Q2 2025 earnings with GAAP revenue of $1.89 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.80 billion, driven by higher sales volumes and stronger pricing [1] - The company's EPS (GAAP) was $2.37, falling short of the consensus estimate of $2.50, indicating ongoing margin sensitivity due to volatile input costs [1][6] - The company achieved operational milestones in decarbonization while returning $297 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [1][9] Financial Performance - Revenue (GAAP) increased by 20.4% year-over-year, from $1.57 billion in Q2 2024 to $1.89 billion in Q2 2025 [2] - Net earnings decreased by 8.1% year-over-year, from $420 million in Q2 2024 to $386 million in Q2 2025 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 1.2% year-over-year, from $752 million in Q2 2024 to $761 million in Q2 2025 [2] Business Overview - CF Industries operates one of the largest ammonia production and distribution networks globally, with facilities primarily in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. [3] - The company focuses on manufacturing ammonia and ammonia-derived products, essential for fertilizers and various industries [3] Strategic Focus - The company is investing in decarbonization efforts, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects and low-carbon ammonia development [4][7] - Cost competitiveness is maintained through efficient management of feedstock, particularly natural gas, which is a significant manufacturing cost [4] Operational Highlights - The company operated its production facilities at 99% capacity in the first half of 2025, anticipating gross ammonia production of around 10 million tons for the year [5] - Despite strong operational performance, profitability faced challenges from rising natural gas prices, with average costs increasing from $1.90 per MMBtu in Q2 2024 to $3.36 per MMBtu in Q2 2025 [6] Market Conditions - Favorable market conditions were noted, with solid U.S. farm demand for nitrogen products and supportive global trade dynamics [8] - However, new ammonia capacity in North America may lead to increased competition and potential price volatility in the future [8] Shareholder Returns - The company returned $297 million to shareholders in Q2 2025, contributing to a total of $827 million returned in the first half of the year [9] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were $245 million, including $90 million for the Blue Point joint venture [9] Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about medium-term demand for ammonia, expecting it to outpace new capacity through 2030 [10] - Planned capital expenditures for 2025 are set at $650 million, with a focus on the Blue Point venture [10] - Key issues to monitor include natural gas price volatility, execution of low-carbon projects, and regulatory changes affecting greenhouse gas emissions [11]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差50，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million in Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024 [7][25][26] - The dollar lost value against most currencies, contributing positively to net income by $220 million [26] - The company expects EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to increase due to strong demand and limited supply [12][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production guidance for the third quarter is set at 1.8 million to 2 million tons, with annual guidance now at 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons [11][36] - Potash production guidance has been increased to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons due to strong global demand [12][36] - The Biosciences segment's revenues more than doubled in the first half compared to the previous year, with expectations to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA starting in Q4 [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global phosphate market remains tight, with strong demand and limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [9][21] - In North America, import supply of phosphate is down around 20% year-over-year due to tariffs, which is expected to keep domestic demand strong [20][71] - Brazilian demand for fertilizers is resilient despite higher prices, with expectations for record shipments this year [21][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operating performance and enhancing reliability in its phosphate production business [5][6] - The new Pomeranci facility adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity, reinforcing the company's market presence in Brazil [13] - The company aims to achieve $250 million in cost reductions by 2026 through various operational efficiencies [35][89] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a strong second half of 2025, driven by improved production volumes and favorable market conditions [6][36] - The company does not anticipate a price reset in the second half of the year, which has occurred in previous years [8] - Management highlighted the importance of market access as a competitive advantage, especially in the context of tight supply and strong demand [6][13] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on capital allocation, expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders [15] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in its operations, with plans to extend these efforts further [35] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse? - Management acknowledged the market's negative reaction and clarified that while there were extraordinary expenses, the underlying performance remains strong [40][41] Question: What was your run rate roughly in July and how are we trending in August and September? - Management indicated that July's run rate was not as expected due to delays but expressed optimism for August and September based on encouraging numbers [48][53] Question: How do the $50 million idle and turnaround one-off costs in Q2 ramp down? - Management provided a general annualized cost range for phosphates but noted the variability in turnaround costs [56][60] Question: What has Mosaic done to harden the assets against potential weather disruptions? - The company has implemented various measures to prepare for hurricane season, including hardening assets and ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [64][66] Question: Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the costs of imports of phosphates into the United States? - Management explained that imports of phosphate face a 10% tariff, impacting the market dynamics and supporting domestic prices [70][71] Question: Can you elaborate on the government's reduction in support for farmer financing of input costs? - Management noted that while the first half of the market was strong, the summer season for soybeans is slower, which may impact demand [93][98]

尿素日报 | 2025-08-06 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 出口扰动，尿素震荡走高 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-05，尿素主力收盘1772元/吨（+39）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：8 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：8元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：18元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润250元/吨（+20），出口利润976 元/吨（-7）。 供应端：截至2025-08-05，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-05，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 印度IPL尿素进口招标价格较上一轮提升，提振尿素盘面价格，同时受到出口扰动，市场情绪震荡走强。尿素产量 处于较高水平，供应端较为充 ...

根据中国海关数据显示：2025年5月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为111万吨，同比下降0.1%，进口金 额为3.62亿美元，同比下降4.8%，2025年5月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为314万吨，同比增长 21.5%，出口金额为7.11亿美元，同比下降4.4%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...