投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that major shale oil companies are warning that U.S. crude oil production has peaked, indicating a significant gap between market expectations and reality [1] Group 2 - Shale oil giants are expressing concerns over the sustainability of production levels, suggesting that the growth trajectory may not continue as previously anticipated [1] - The article discusses the implications of this peak production on market dynamics, including potential price volatility and supply constraints [1] - It emphasizes the need for investors to reassess their outlook on the oil market in light of these warnings from industry leaders [1]

来源：中国新闻网 中新网大庆5月6日电(裴宇 王玉) 6日，在大庆油田采油五厂第七作业区注采704班，一台高1米左右， 灰、白相间，带有4个轮子的机器人正沿着巡检路线缓缓移动，并不时停下，对着设备仪表进行拍摄， 这是大庆油田在推进数字化管理、无人值守站建设后，首次在杏南油田应用智能巡检机器人开展站库巡 检工作。 此次投用的智能巡检机器人以电池四轮驱动，配置360度智能日夜视摄像头，能够自主巡检、自动避障 和自动充电，通过激光雷达、深度视觉、里程视觉、气体检测和智能拾音等先进技术，实现压力、流 量、温度和液位等生产数据智能收集分析，监测生产区域可燃气体、硫化氢气体浓度、液体泄漏、火灾 以及外来人员入侵等，并以5G无线方式实时反馈现场情况，实时上传巡检视频、报警信息等。 为确保机器人在复杂油气站场的可适用性，大庆油田的技术人员深入调研输油、输气、轻烃各类典型站 场，针对不同巡检场景设计了车轮式与轨道式两种机器人技术路线。通过人工干预、环境搭建等措施， 模拟了超温、超压、泄漏等28种巡检场景，覆盖压力、流量、液位等核心参数的监测需求。该测试体系 不仅验证了机器人硬件的极限性能，更为后续算法优化提供了真实数据支撑。 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - Torsten Slok warns that if the Trump administration continues high tariff policies (average rate rising from 3% to 18%), it could shrink US GDP by 4%, equivalent to erasing California's economy [1] - The current US policies are causing a dual crisis in strategic coordination, with internal governance issues and external trust erosion, undermining the US's soft power as a free trade order maintainer [1] - The decline in US soft power is linked to the over-reliance on hard power tools like tariffs, which accelerates the loss of international discourse power [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Challenges - Falling oil prices are forcing US oil companies to cut production and lay off workers, revealing vulnerabilities in the energy sector's technological reserves and capital resilience [2] - The trend of reduced upstream investment is evident as oil service companies like Baker Hughes cut exploration budgets, stifling technological innovation [2] - The traditional energy giants, such as Chevron, are experiencing profit declines, weakening their ability to dominate industry rules through capital strength [2] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - Slok highlights the potential for a "Truss moment" due to soaring US Treasury yields, indicating a crisis in fiscal credit soft power [2] - The market's trust in fiscal discipline is waning, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.6%, reflecting concerns over long-term fiscal credibility [2] - The current turmoil in the Treasury market underscores the absence of mechanisms for "expectation anchoring" and "risk-sharing" in monetary policy soft power [2] Group 4: Structural Economic Risks - Despite predicting a 0% probability of US recession by 2025, Slok identifies ten significant risks, including a 90% probability of tariff increases and Nvidia's performance falling short of expectations [3] - The over-dependence on a single company (Nvidia) for AI industry narratives poses a risk to innovation leadership, especially if the technological dividend fades [3] - The reliance on government spending for economic growth, with 25% of new jobs coming from the public sector, highlights structural weaknesses in the US economy [3] Group 5: Soft Power Framework - Slok's multidimensional warnings reveal a systematic decline in the US's soft power across strategic resource integration, institutional resilience, and technological leadership [3] - To rebuild soft power, the US must move beyond short-term policy games towards a governance model that includes rule co-construction, technological symbiosis, and debt co-governance [3]

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng attended the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Milan, Italy, calling for regional unity to address the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - From May 1 to May 5, the total cross-regional personnel flow in China is expected to reach 1.467 billion, with a daily average of 293 million, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [2] - The National Railway Group reported a peak in return passenger flow, expecting to send 21.1 million passengers today, with 1,896 additional trains planned [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported a 4.5% year-on-year increase in marine product output in Q1 2025, with marine aquaculture output rising by 5.7% [2] - As of May 5, the total box office for new films during the May Day holiday has exceeded 700 million yuan [2] - Xiaomi has renamed its "Smart Driving" feature to "Assisted Driving" for its SU7 vehicle models [2] - The latest wholesale price for premium Moutai liquor is reported at 2,590 yuan per bottle, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous day [2] - AVIC Industry announced a non-public transfer of shares in AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group and AVIC Onboard to its controlling shareholder, totaling 4.067 billion yuan [2] International News - OPEC announced that eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, marking the second consecutive month of higher-than-expected production increases [3] - U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad, aiming to promote American-made films [3] - Trump confirmed he does not seek re-election at the end of his current term during a televised interview [3] - Romania's presidential election will enter a second round as no candidate received a majority of votes [3] - The Houthi movement in Yemen announced continued missile attacks on Israeli airports, including Ben Gurion International Airport [3] - Israel's security cabinet approved an expanded military operation plan in Gaza, set to begin after Trump's upcoming visit to the Middle East [3]

市场继续关注贸易谈判最新进展。 上周国际市场风云变幻，贸易形势缓和前景提振投资者信心。美股全线走高，道指周涨3.00%，纳指周 涨3.42%，标普500指数周涨2.92%。欧洲三大股指表现不俗，英国富时100指数周涨2.15%，德国DAX 30指数周涨3.80%，法国CAC 40指数周涨3.11%。 本周看点颇多，外界继续密切聚焦贸易谈判进展。在关税的不确定性中，美联储或继续按兵不动，市场 将关注未来几个月降息的可能性。在欧洲，预计英国央行将降息，瑞典和挪威也将作出利率决定。欧美 经济体更新4月采购经理人指数PMI。财报季继续进行，AMD、迪士尼等披露业绩。 美联储或按兵不动 上周美国总统特朗普通过签署命令来缓和汽车关税的打击，软化其在贸易问题上的立场。美国政府还表 示，已非常接近与印度和韩国签署贸易协议。 美联储将于本周召开议息会议，尽管特朗普最近向美联储施压要求其降息，市场普遍预期联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）将按兵不动。目前，通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，美国就业市场仍然健康。 本次会议的焦点将集中在美联储对今年晚些时候是否可能因关税而降息以支撑经济的任何信号的附带评 论上。然而，美联储需要在支持经济的需要 ...

Group 1 - The successful production of the Panyu 11-12 platform marks a significant advancement in the remote development of offshore heavy oil fields in China, featuring intelligent oil extraction and operational capabilities, which can save over 10 million yuan annually in operational costs compared to traditional methods [1] - The launch of the world's largest pure electric ship, "China Zorrilla," in Australia, measuring 130 meters in length and equipped with over 250 tons of batteries, represents a major milestone in electric maritime technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the revenue of the electronic information manufacturing industry in China reached 3.79 trillion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, indicating a robust development trend in the sector [1] Group 2 - The SPHEREx space telescope has commenced its two-year survey mission, aiming to capture approximately 3,600 images daily to create a new three-dimensional map of the universe, contributing to the understanding of cosmic evolution and the origins of life in the Milky Way [1]

•我国一季度对欧盟进出口1.3万亿元，同比增长1.4% •2024年，A股27家公司研发支出超百亿元 转自：新华财经 【重点关注】 •统计数据显示，2024年共有290家A股上市公司研发支出超10亿元，研发支出占营收比例超10%的公司有925家，这2项数据均创历史新高。27家公司研发支 出超百亿元，比亚迪、中国建筑、中国移动、中国石油、中国中铁排名前五。比亚迪2024年研发支出达到541.61亿元，A股历史上首次跻身榜首位置。（证 券时报） •数据显示，4月份共有1189家私募证券管理人参与对A股上市公司的调研，覆盖27个申万一级行业中的639只个股，合计调研次数达7647次，较3月的3513次 环比增长117.68%。其中，电子、医药生物、机械设备成为当月私募调研热度最高的三个行业，立讯精密等个股成为4月热门调研股。（新华财经） •香港金管局：股票相关投资及区内货币兑美元升值支持港元汇率 【国内要闻】 •5月3日，全国铁路预计发送旅客1800万人次，计划加开旅客列车1563列。5月2日，全国铁路发送旅客1955万人次，同比增长11.1%，运输安全平稳有序。 （新华社） •"五一"假期首日，出境游需求井喷，其 ...

美国至5月2日当周石油钻井总数 479口，前值483口。 ...

智通财经5月3日电，美国至5月2日当周石油钻井总数479口。 ...