本报记者 韩昱 1月20日，财政部联合相关部门连发5份通知，分别是《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关 于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的通知》《关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的 通知》《关于实施民间投资专项担保计划的通知》《关于优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策的通 知》。 来源：财政部网站 《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》提出，对2026年1月1日起经办银行发放的、符合条件的中 小微民营企业固定资产贷款和中小微民营企业参与项目使用的新型政策性金融工具资金，中央财政按照 贷款本金给予年化1.5个百分点、期限不超过2年的贴息支持，单户贴息贷款规模上限5000万元。政策实 施期限暂定1年，后续可视情延长。同一笔贷款不得重复享受中央财政其他贴息政策。 扩展支持领域。在支持工业、能源电力、交通运输、物流、文旅、老旧农机具等领域设备更新基础上， 增加建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、渔船、冷链设施、粮油加 工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域，加大对高端化、智能化、绿色 化、数字化设备更新支持。 《关于实施民间投资专项担保计划的通知 ...

寒潮天气来袭，新疆维吾尔自治区乌苏市市场监管局强化党建引领，积极践行"实干争先"理念，开展叉 车安全专项整治行动。 检查过程中，该局执法人员通过塔通办·扫码检查方式，聚焦叉车使用频率高的工业园区企业、物流公 司、棉花加工企业等重点场所，涵盖自有及租赁使用的各类叉车。 此次行动以清除"三无"（即未办理使用登记、未进行定期检验、作业人员无证操作）叉车为核心目标， 按照"企业自查自纠、部门执法检查与督促整改、企业巩固深化"的步骤有序推进。 截至目前，该局共检查工业园区企业8家、物流公司2家，现场发现"作业人员无证操作"叉车1辆，对相 关违法行为限期责令整改。目前，专项整治仍在持续推进中。（杜志锋、汪招屹、马文艳） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the optimization of loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate consumption and support small and micro enterprises, with extended implementation periods and increased loan limits [1][2]. Group 2 - The service industry loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with new focus areas including digital, green, and retail sectors. The maximum loan amount eligible for interest subsidies has increased from 1 million to 10 million yuan, and the subsidy cap has been raised to 100,000 yuan [1]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy now includes credit card installment payments, with an annual subsidy rate of 1% [1]. - A new interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises has been introduced, offering a subsidy of 1.5% per year for up to 2 years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a maximum subsidy of 150,000 yuan per enterprise [2]. - The equipment update loan interest subsidy policy has been expanded to include fixed asset loans related to equipment updates and new technology innovation loans starting from 2026 [2]. - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been established with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at providing guarantees for eligible small and micro enterprises' loans for various operational activities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have released multiple documents aimed at enhancing consumer loans, private investment, and support for small and micro enterprises, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and consumption [1]. Group 1: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises has been implemented, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a subsidy rate of 1.5% for loans issued from January 1, 2026, for a maximum period of 2 years [33][34]. - The policy aims to support investments in key industries such as new energy vehicles, medical equipment, and artificial intelligence, among others [33]. - The government will cover 90% of the subsidy costs, while local governments will cover the remaining 10% [34]. Group 2: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policy - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy has been extended until December 31, 2026, allowing for a 1% subsidy on eligible loans [25][26]. - The policy now includes credit card installment payments and removes previous limits on subsidy amounts, enhancing accessibility for consumers [27]. - The Ministry of Finance will collaborate with various financial institutions to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of the subsidy program [28]. Group 3: Equipment Upgrade Loan Subsidy Policy - The equipment upgrade loan subsidy policy has been expanded to include a wider range of industries, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% for loans issued for equipment upgrades [19][20]. - The policy will support sectors such as construction, aviation, and digital technology, promoting high-end and green equipment upgrades [20]. - The implementation period for this policy is set until December 31, 2026, with potential extensions based on effectiveness [19]. Group 4: Private Investment Guarantee Plan - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been established with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing financing support for small and micro enterprises [11][13]. - The plan will cover loans for various activities, including equipment purchases and business renovations, with a risk-sharing mechanism where banks bear at least 20% of the loan risk [14]. - The government will reduce guarantee fees and increase the guarantee limits for eligible projects, encouraging more private sector investment [15][16].

Group 1 - The core objective of Vietnam's leadership is to achieve an average economic growth rate of over 10% annually by 2030, significantly higher than the previously set target of 6.5%-7.0% for 2021-2025, which was not met [1][2] - The Vietnamese government plans to make strategic breakthroughs in three key areas: institutional reform, infrastructure development, and human resources, to support this ambitious growth target [2] - Vietnam aims to attract between $150 billion to $200 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2026 to 2030, funded by an expanded fiscal deficit projected to reach around 5% of GDP [2] Group 2 - Despite external pressures, Vietnam's economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth of 8.46% in Q4 2025, surpassing economists' expectations of 7.7%, driven by strong manufacturing and export performance [3] - Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew over 10% in the last quarter, contributing significantly to economic growth, while exports surged nearly 24% year-on-year, achieving a record trade surplus with the U.S. [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, which were imposed at 20% in August 2025, may have delayed effects, prompting Vietnam to seek stronger trade relationships with other partners to mitigate risks [3] Group 3 - The pursuit of high growth targets has revealed vulnerabilities in Vietnam's financial system, with credit growth reaching 17.9%, significantly outpacing the 14% growth in deposits, leading to liquidity shortages in the banking sector [4] - Fitch Ratings has warned that the rapid lending pace in Vietnam's banking sector exceeds overall economic growth, increasing financial risks associated with credit-driven growth [4] - Regulatory measures, including dollar swap transactions, have been implemented to inject liquidity into the market and alleviate pressure on the banking system [4]

债 券 研 究 2026 年 01 月 20 日 基本面延续偏弱，通胀回升是亮点 债 券 策 略 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 图 2：2025Q4 我国工业产能利用率季节性环比小幅 度回升，但整体水平仍偏低 究 报 告 ——12 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 2025 年全年完成 GDP 同比增速 5%的目标，但国内经济整体仍呈现生产强、需求弱修 复的特征。2025 年全年，我国 GDP 同比增速达到 5%，符合市场预期，但是我国经济仍 然面临实体需求不足、外部环境扰动较大的现实约束。具体表现为过去由地产驱动的固定 资产投资增速明显回落，财富缩水效应下，居民消费改善不明显、物 ...

数据显示，2025年全年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长3.7%，规模居全球零售市场前 列。2025年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，快于商品零售额1.7个百分点，服务零售额占整体零售额的比 重上升。此外，新型消费方兴未艾，2025年，网上零售额比上年增长8.6%，其中实物商品网上零售额 增长5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重是26.1%。 工业是实体经济的重要组成部分，也是经济稳定运行的"压舱石"。康义表示，2025年，工业生产呈现出 增长较快、结构向优、动能向新的特点，为经济稳定运行发挥了重要的支撑作用。 数据显示，2025年，我国工业增加值达到41.7万亿元，比上年增长5.8%，对经济增长的贡献率达到 35%，比上年提高1.8个百分点。作为工业经济的主体，制造业产出规模持续扩大。2025年制造业增加 值34.7万亿元，比上年增长6.1%，占GDP的比重稳定在25%左右，制造业规模有望连续16年保持全球第 一，门类体系完整的优势更加明显。 经济稳中向好有条件、有支撑 康义表示，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，我国发展站上了新起点。尽管外部环境变化影响加深，国内稳 定发展面临挑战，但我国经济基础 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

央视网消息：国务院新闻办公室1月19日举行新闻发布会，国家统计局发布2025年全年经济数据。2025年全年，国内生产总值突破140万亿元，国民经济 运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效。 我国GDP同比增5%预期目标完成 粮食产量连续两年站稳在1.4万亿斤以上 粮食增产丰收，畜牧业稳定增长。2025年，粮食产量达到1.43万亿斤，连续两年站稳在1.4万亿斤以上。 我国制造业规模继续保持全球第一 工业生产较快增长。2025年全国规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%，制造业增加值比上年增长6.1%，占GDP的比重稳定在25%左右，制造业规模继 续保持全球第一。 服务业增加值比上年增长5.4% 服务业平稳增长。2025年全年服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%。占国内生产总值的比重提高到57.7%。 初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%；人均国内生产总值达到13953美元，已经连续3年超过1.3万美元。"这 一年，我国发展历程很不平凡，取得的成绩令人鼓舞，经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，主要预期目标圆满实现。"国家统计局局长康义称。 国家统计局局长 康义：下阶段，坚持稳中求 ...

文|无言 2025年底，日本央行出了件"大新闻"，宣布加息0.25个百分点，把政策利率提到0.75%。 这可是日本30年来第一次加息，按理说，加息通常是为了让货币更"值钱"，结果日元反倒跟坐了滑梯似 的，一路大跌，现在还在低位晃悠。 这操作跟咱们平时以为的"加息=货币升值"完全反过来了，简直让人大跌眼镜。 加息反成日元"催命符"？ 日本央行这波加息，本来想得挺美，一方面想稳住跌跌不休的日元，另一方面也想给高企的物价降降 温。 毕竟30年没动过利率了，市场一开始还挺期待，以为"大招"来了。 结果呢？加息消息一出，日元兑美元不仅没涨，反而跌得更猛了。 问题出在哪儿？说白了，市场根本不信日本央行这一套。 大家心里嘀咕，"你就加这么点？以后还加不加？有没有持续性？" 日本央行自己也没说清楚，只含糊其辞地说"根据经济情况调整"。 这种"说了等于没说"的政策信号，让投资者心里没底，谁还敢拿着日元？ 日元跌跌不休的五重"推手" 日元跌成这样，可不是单一原因造成的，背后藏着五重"隐形推手"，个个都挺要命。 有数据显示，加息后一个月内，日元对美元汇率跌幅超过3%，创下年内最大单月跌幅。 这就好比你感冒了，医生说"吃这个药准好" ...