永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/1 6/26 6/27 6/30 日度变化 周度变化 11250 -25 -325 11195 11275 36383 33472 28291 -5181 17417 108330 96846 96678 -168 -2869 6530 7700 7700 1070 0 -3 27.86 21.74 18.37 10 25 275 3 22 300 125 202 425 450 25 25 25 75 705 675 700 | 36383 | | 播 | 主力合约持仓量 主力合约成交量 | 33898 | 10874 | | 33472 | 28291 | -5181 | 17417 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 108330 | | | | 163945 | 102647 | | 96846 | 96678 | -168 | -2969 | | | | | 仓单数量 | 12290 | 6630 | 6530 | 7700 | 7700 | ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-30 用率仍存走低预期。br2508合约短线预计在10800-11500区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -25 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11250 | 28291 | -5181 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 110 | 700 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 东(日,元/吨) | 11550 | 11450 | ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that synthetic rubber will experience short - term oscillatory movements. The fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry, including both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, are currently in a neutral to slightly weak state, with no obvious trends in the short term [2][4]. Directory Summaries 1. Market Judgment - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The upper valuation limit is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply is high, imports are neutral, demand is stable, production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to maintain a high year - on - year level and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and inventories are at a high year - on - year level. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, with the temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the rebound of natural rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber futures are expected to oscillate without an obvious trend [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral short - term oscillatory movement; the spread between NR - BR widens [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with a slightly faster pace than downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [9][11]. - **Supply - side**: The industry's operating rate is at a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of some ethylene plants, the weekly output remains high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: Short - term import volumes are neutral [4]. - **Demand - side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Capacity**: New capacity has been put into operation in recent years, and more is expected in 2025 [19]. - **ABS and SBS Capacity**: There was significant capacity expansion in 2024 and 2025 [28]. - **Fundamentals**: ABS has stable operating rates, profits, and inventory levels. SBS has a certain capacity utilization rate [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly output shows certain fluctuations, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is gradually returning to above the break - even line [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Import and export volumes show historical trends [43][44]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise, futures, and trader inventories are at certain levels, with enterprise inventories at a high year - on - year level [48][49]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - side**: - **Tire**: Shandong's all - steel tire inventory and domestic semi - steel and all - steel tire operating rates show historical trends [52][53].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On June 26, the closing price of the main contract was 11,195, down 30 from the previous day and 575 from the previous week; the position was 36,383, up 28,760 from the previous day and 21,249 from the previous week; the trading volume was 108,330, up 70,516 from the previous day and 27,228 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 6,530, down 100 from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30 higher than the previous day and 275 higher than the previous week; the 7 - 8 month spread was 120, down 30 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 90, up 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The spot processing profit was - 85, up 153 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was - 440, up 123 from the previous day and down 269 from the previous week; the import profit was - 83,843, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,291 from the previous week; the export profit was - 474, unchanged from the previous day and up 245 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,250, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 54, up 180 from the previous day and down 210 from the previous week; the import profit was 179, down 100 from the previous day and 579 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,021, up 87 from the previous day and down 390 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene - styrene rubber production profit was 263, unchanged from the previous day and down 325 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was 204, down 45 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 960 (data incomplete), unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spread**: RU - BR was - 22,343, down 28,490 from the previous day and 21,239 from the previous week; NR - BR was - 24,238, down 28,425 from the previous day and 21,384 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,400, up 250 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week; the 3L - butadiene - styrene rubber spread was 2,750, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week; the butadiene - styrene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11195 | -30 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 36383 | 28760 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 700 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR ...

jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/24 | | | 指标 | 5/22 | 6/16 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 6/23 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11895 | 11565 | 11770 | 11630 | 11575 | -25 | 10 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 13554 | 18319 | 15134 | 13196 | 10874 | -2322 | -7445 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 74911 | 159100 | 81102 | 106439 | 102647 | -3792 | -56453 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10490 | 12520 | 6630 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5890 | | | | 虚实比 | 6.46 | 7.32 | 11.41 | તે તે તે આ ગામમ | 8.20 | -2 | T | | | | ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/23 | | | 指标 | 5/21 | 6/13 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11900 | 11390 | 11740 | 11770 | 11630 | -140 | 240 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 15064 | 19801 | 16777 | 15134 | 13196 | -1938 | -୧୧୦୮ | | | STET | 主力合约成交量 | 97613 | 206269 | 104964 | 81102 | 106439 | 25337 | -99830 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10490 | 12520 | 12290 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5890 | | | | 虚实比 | 7.18 | 7.91 | 6.83 | 11.41 | તે જેવી સ | -1 | 2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 300 | 210 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber will follow crude oil and remain in a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, due to the high supply and the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, there is still significant fundamental pressure. The current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情研判 - **Futures - end static valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to oscillate. The upper valuation of the futures price is around 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and when the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation range is 11,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene fundamentals**: The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene market has seen improved short - term transactions, with prices oscillating around 9,500 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate is still high year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. Short - term imports are neutral. Demand from butadiene rubber remains neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS. Inventories of production enterprises and ports have increased slightly. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Butadiene rubber fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually returned above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, but the substitution demand is expected to decline. Inventories have been at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene rubber futures**: In the short term, the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international energy prices, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may oscillate at a high level following oil products. In the medium term, the fundamentals are under pressure. Overall, the market is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral positions are short - term bullish; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 3.2丁二烯基本面 - **Pricing stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New capacity in 2024 and 2025**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity were put into operation, and in 2025, 860,000 tons are expected to be added, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side operating rate**: The overall operating rate of butadiene is high, with some fluctuations due to enterprise maintenance. The total weekly production capacity is 1.4167 million tons, and the operating rate is 69.95%, with a weekly output of 991,000 tons [15]. - **Net imports**: Short - term imports are neutral, with data showing monthly import and export volume changes [16]. - **Demand - side capacity**: The capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding, with new projects being put into operation in multiple regions. For example, in 2024 - 2026, new capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will be added in Zhejiang, Shandong, and other places [19]. - **Demand - side operating and maintenance**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber vary among enterprises, with some in normal operation, some under reduced load, and some under maintenance [24]. - **ABS and SBS capacity**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also been increasing. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [28]. - **ABS and SBS fundamentals**: The operating rate, net profit, inventory, and capacity utilization of ABS and SBS show certain trends and fluctuations [29][30]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of butadiene production enterprises and ports have increased slightly, and the total inventory shows an upward trend [32][33][34] 3.3合成橡胶基本面 - **Butadiene rubber supply - production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain trends and fluctuations, and the operating rate of enterprises also varies [39]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - cost and profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [41][42][43]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - import and export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain trends [44][47]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - inventory**: The inventories of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are at a relatively high level year - on - year [50][51]. - **Butadiene rubber demand - tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province and the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires show certain trends [54][55]

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | | 指标 | 5/20 | 6/12 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12070 | 11035 | 11485 | 11740 | 11770 | 30 | 735 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 16991 | 21103 | 16181 | 16777 | 15134 | -1643 | -5969 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 94802 | 121876 | 111310 | 104964 | 81102 | -23862 | -40774 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10290 | 12820 | 12290 | 12290 | 6630 | -5660 | -6190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.26 | 8.23 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 11.41 | 5 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 330 | 515 | 115 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]