1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is a price fluctuation between 10,800 - 11,400 yuan/ton. With the restart of previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants and increased production, and sufficient supply of butadiene, as well as the expected increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization, the market situation is expected to change accordingly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position is 32,013 lots, an increase of 3,155 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,870 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers shows a downward trend. The basis of synthetic rubber is 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.73 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.49 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,020 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.9 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.61 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.37%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory and trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared to the previous period and 36.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to the previous period and 0.78 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Some enterprises carried out shutdown and maintenance during the holiday, which affected the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Some plants have also increased their production loads, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, although there are maintenance plans for butadiene plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, the supply of butadiene is still abundant due to the recovery of previously under - loaded plants and imports. During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises carried out maintenance, which significantly reduced the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume production, the device capacity will be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Key Figures BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On October 10, the closing price of the main contract was 11,220, down 102 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week; the trading volume was 71,527, down 3,340 from the previous day and 12,158 from the previous week; the open interest of the main contract was 28,858, down 2,555 from the previous day and 22,296 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 8,120, up 420 from the previous day and down 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Difference**: The spot - futures basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 130, up 105 from the previous day; the 10 - 11 month spread was 155, up 120 from the previous day; the 11 - 12 month spread was 45, up 5 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 230 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 174, up 102 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,738, down 64 from the previous day and up 1,493 from the previous week; the export profit was 163, up 7 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: On October 10, the Shandong market price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 515 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,750, down 50 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6, down 50 from the previous day and 352 from the previous week; the import profit was 187, down 56 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week; the export profit was - 816, up 48 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,025, up 75 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, up 70 from the previous day and down 55 from the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 13,543, up 2,455 from the previous day and 22,041 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 16,508, up 2,440 from the previous day and 22,216 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,400, down 100 from the previous day and up 130 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 350, up 100 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day [3].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on synthetic rubber and butadiene by Guotai Junan Futures, dated October 12, 2025 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly in the short - term due to the resonance of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The supply growth rate of butadiene and synthetic rubber is higher than the demand growth rate, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts may also lead to weak expectations for the cost and demand of synthetic rubber [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - In October 2025, the estimated output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is about 131,300 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons compared to September. Five sets of devices are planned to be overhauled in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 420,000 tons/year [5] - Some enterprises have normal operation, while others are under maintenance or restarting. For example, Qilu Petrochemical is under parking maintenance, and Shandong Weite is restarting [45] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the overall order performance of tire enterprises in October weakened month - on - month. Affected by EU anti - dumping and continuous rainfall, the demand is weak. Some enterprises had 5 - 8 days of maintenance during the "Double Festival", and the inventory reduction of finished products was slow [5] - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21% [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,500 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to gradually decline [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high positions according to the static valuation range of fundamentals. The upper pressure is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton [5] - Cross - variety: The price difference between nr - br fluctuates in the short - term [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [6] - Butadiene production capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [11] 3.2.2 Demand - The operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a high level year - on - year. ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains stable [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - From September 18 - 24, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene sample enterprises increased, with a month - on - month increase of 6.72%. The enterprise inventory decreased by 3.44%, and the port inventory increased by 20.13% [6] 3.2.4 Outlook - In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, and the inventory is neutral, so butadiene will fluctuate. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still weak [6]

「2025.10.10」 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 合成橡胶市场周报 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 3 4 「期货市场情况」 行情回顾：国内丁二烯市场小幅下行，节后下游心态观望，部分供方价格下调亦难以刺激成交跟 进，虽下游合成橡胶市场气氛有所支撑，但在成交不佳拖拽下，丁二烯现货行情小幅走低。民营 生产企业延续低价出货，但部分供方存在限量出货情况，中间商入市积极性有所提升，下游询盘 增多。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升，齐鲁、扬子、浙石化顺 丁橡胶装置均有检修预期，但也有装置重启，另外茂名石化、裕龙石化顺丁橡胶装置提负运行， 整体产量预期环比有所增长。原料方面，10月虽有镇海炼化与广州石化丁二烯装置存检修计划， 但随着前期降负的华中及华南装置陆续恢复，叠加进口到港，丁二烯供应仍显充裕。需求方面， 假期期间国内部分轮胎企业存5-8天检修计划，拖拽企业产能利用率明显下滑，随着检修企业开工 逐 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 09 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The output of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase month - on - month. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,325 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 225 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 31,413, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,801. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,770 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,400 tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.3%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,650 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 114 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.303 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.806 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 109,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.16 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.15 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's synthetic rubber industry, indicating a significant increase in production and a positive outlook for the market from 2025 to 2031 [1]. Industry Summary - As of August 2025, China's synthetic rubber production reached 740,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the total production of synthetic rubber in China amounted to 5,848,000 tons, marking a cumulative increase of 10.9% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. Near the National Day holiday, the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels last week, with overall operating rates slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. During the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 33,214, a decrease of 5,336. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons/week, an increase of 4,300 tons/week. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The current - month production of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the overall inventory level of enterprises will decline slightly during the National Day holiday as downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods. - Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels last week, with only minor adjustments in overall operation. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday for maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 38,550, a decrease of 1,541. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,670 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $70.13 per barrel, an increase of $0.71; WTI crude oil was at $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $815 per ton, a decrease of $5; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608 per ton, a decrease of $0.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $1,060 per ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, an increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, an increase of 0.13 days [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.58%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.72%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels to reserve post - holiday inventory, with only minor adjustments in overall operation [2] 3.6 Key Concerns - No news on this day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]