文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

Group 1: Government Policies and Initiatives - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy to Enhance Free Trade Pilot Zones," providing systematic deployment for the construction of free trade pilot zones [4] - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory authorities, released the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-Border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai," which includes 18 key measures to improve cross-border settlement efficiency and optimize financial services [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to promote orderly opening in the telecommunications sector and support pilot projects for service industry expansion, aiming to enhance market vitality [4] Group 2: Company News and Performance - Several companies reported significant year-on-year profit increases for Q1, including: - Bubu Gao: Net profit of 119 million yuan, up 488.44% [8] - Dajin Heavy Industry: Net profit of 231 million yuan, up 335.91% [8] - Yalian Machinery: Net profit of 57.6 million yuan, up 1088.67% [8] - Antong Holdings: Net profit of 241 million yuan, up 371.53% [8] - Guoda Special Materials: Net profit of 74.25 million yuan, up 1488.76% [8] - Xiantan Co.: Net profit of 48.02 million yuan, up 583.83% [8] - Shenghong Technology: Net profit of 921 million yuan, up 339.22% [8] - CATL announced the launch of its second-generation supercharging battery, capable of charging for 5 minutes to achieve a range of over 520 kilometers, marking a significant advancement in lithium iron phosphate battery technology [8] - China Communications Construction Company plans to repurchase A-shares worth 500 million to 1 billion yuan, while its controlling shareholder plans to increase H-shares by 250 million to 500 million yuan [8] - Rock Shares announced a termination of its major asset restructuring plan due to ongoing investigations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [12] Group 3: Market Insights and Recommendations - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting with private equity representatives, who expressed confidence in the potential for valuation recovery in Chinese assets, suggesting a long-term, rational investment approach [5] - Citic Securities highlighted the importance of service consumption in expanding domestic demand, recommending investments in sectors like hotels and scenic spots [13] - Huatai Securities suggested focusing on defensive assets and policy hedging, particularly in transportation, insurance, and communication services, which are expected to see increased dividend rates in 2024 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is a key focus of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with significant growth potential in both supply and demand sides, particularly in the tourism and cultural industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan for 2025," outlining 48 specific measures across various sectors including dining, accommodation, health, and tourism [2] - The government's frequent issuance of work plans to support service consumption has enhanced market expectations for policy support [2] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Industry - The tourism and cultural industry is characterized by its large capacity, broad scope, high resilience, and strong driving force, making it a significant area for potential subsidies to stimulate consumption [3] - Historical data indicates that tourism consumption subsidies can have a multiplier effect, with ratios ranging from 1:4 to 1:5, and in some cases, as high as 1:12 [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy include platforms, transportation, accommodation, scenic spots, and dining [4][5] - Past consumption voucher distributions show that hotel accommodation typically accounts for 20%-40%, scenic spot tickets for 15%-30%, and transportation for 5%-20% of total subsidies [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - With the government's clear direction to stimulate domestic demand, there is an expectation of continued policy support for service consumption [7] - The upcoming May Day holiday is projected to maintain high passenger traffic growth, with airline ticket prices expected to turn positive, indicating a significant holiday effect [7]

Group 1: Market Overview and Sector Analysis - The article discusses the current positioning of six main sectors: technology, consumer, pharmaceuticals, new energy, dividends, and overseas expansion, providing insights on stock prices, valuations, and fundamentals [1] - The property service industry achieved a positive cash flow of 19.8 billion and a net increase in monetary funds of 6 billion, with an average dividend payout ratio rising to 65% [6] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with PB ratios at the lower end of the past three years, indicating a high cost-performance ratio [7] Group 2: Electric and Commercial Vehicles - The development of hybrid heavy-duty trucks is seen as the final piece in the electrification puzzle, with expected penetration rates of 1%, 5%, and 10% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The article highlights the significant growth potential for hybrid heavy-duty trucks in long-distance transportation, with a projected market share of 30% by 2030 [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - The electric power sector experienced a 1.3% year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in January and February 2025, attributed to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Investment in thermal and nuclear power has accelerated, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.5% in investment amounts [9] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Tourism - During the Qingming Festival, domestic travel increased by 6.3% in terms of the number of trips and 6.7% in total spending, indicating strong travel demand [13] - The article anticipates a continued rise in leisure tourism and service consumption, with a focus on sectors like dining and hotels [13] Group 5: Agricultural Machinery - The recent government plan aims to significantly advance agricultural modernization by 2035, which will drive demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural machinery [11] - The plan emphasizes upgrading agricultural machinery and integrating advanced equipment into the entire agricultural production process [11]

PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关税落地，料A股回暖 关税"风暴"落地后，预计A股回暖、港股休整、美股修复。 4月初关税"风暴"即将落地，中国可能受影响最大，但准备也最充分；控供给、保需求，二季度国内政策发 力方向越发清晰。关税"风暴"落地后，预计A股回暖、港股休整、美股修复。从业绩层面来看，核心资产已 体现出极强的经营韧性，左侧布局的契机已经成熟；从流动性层面来看，活跃资金明显退潮，产业主题需 要催化及时间来蓄势。配置上，延续科技点火、供给侧发力和消费补短板的思路。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 点击查看全文 外部扰动加大，聚焦三大主题 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 随着A股进入业绩披露期，以及外部扰动加大，市场整固的同时主题风格高低切换，前期市场关注度较高的 主题退潮，业绩、关税等因素成为新催化，建议关注业绩超预期主题、化工原料涨价主题、中美博弈主 题。我们延续从3月份以来的配置观点，建议继续关注业绩确定性 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，金价再创新高 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，利好母婴消费品 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特卫健委发布落实《关于促进人口 集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》育儿补贴项目实施细 则及服务流程。发放育儿补贴实施细则如下：生育一孩一次 性发放育儿补贴 10000 元；生育二孩发放育儿补贴 50000 元， 按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 5 周岁；生育三孩及以上发 放育儿补贴 100000 元，按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 10 周岁。 据中国政府网、财联社，2025 年政府工作报告中明确提出， 制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴；3 月 7 日，国家卫健委主 任雷海潮指出，今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同 有关部门，起草相关的育儿补贴的操作方案。育儿补贴政策 的出台是提振生育率的重要举措，我们认为未来地方育儿补 贴政策有望持续出台，利好母婴消费品，相关受益标的包括 孩子王、爱 ...