Core Insights - The decline in international oil prices has significantly impacted the performance of China's major oil companies, known as the "Big Three" [2] - For the first three quarters, China Petroleum, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [2] - The average price of crude oil sold by China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while China National Offshore Oil's average price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, contributing to revenue declines in their oil and gas segments [2][3] Financial Performance - The combined net profit of the "Big Three" decreased by over 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 3.8 million yuan [2] - Despite the drop in oil prices, the profit decline for China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil was less severe than the price drop due to effective cost management and operational efficiency [3] - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [3] Natural Gas Segment - China National Offshore Oil reported a nearly 12% increase in natural gas production, significantly outpacing overall production growth, with natural gas sales revenue rising by 15.2% [3] - The average price of natural gas sold by China National Offshore Oil increased by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing positively to its financial performance [3] Downstream and Chemical Business - The downstream oil product sales and refining chemical sectors of China Petroleum and China Petrochemical are facing challenges due to decreased market demand and falling prices [3] - China Petroleum's chemical business reported an operating profit of 1.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50%, while China Petrochemical's chemical segment experienced a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% [4] Industry Trends and Strategic Shifts - The peak demand for gasoline in the Chinese market was reached in 2023, with expectations of a significant decline post-2030, impacting the overall oil product demand [5] - In response to the pressures from renewable energy, the "Big Three" are accelerating their diversification into non-oil businesses [5] - China Petrochemical aims to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider by expanding into natural gas, hydrogen, and electric vehicle charging services [5] - China Petroleum is also focusing on integrating oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development, emphasizing the construction of comprehensive energy stations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of declining international oil prices on the performance of China's major oil companies, referred to as the "Three Barrels of Oil" (China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC), highlighting their financial results and strategic responses to the changing market conditions [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [3]. - The combined net profit of these companies decreased by over 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 380 million yuan [3]. - The average price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while CNOOC's average price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, leading to revenue declines in their oil and gas segments [3][4]. Operational Efficiency - Despite the decline in profits, China Petroleum and CNOOC managed to limit their profit drops compared to the oil price decline due to effective cost management and operational efficiency [4]. - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [4]. - CNOOC's net production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [4]. Natural Gas Segment - The natural gas segment showed positive growth, with CNOOC's natural gas production increasing by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing overall production growth [5]. - The average price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [5]. Downstream Business Challenges - The downstream oil product sales and refining sectors faced challenges due to declining market demand and falling prices for key petroleum and petrochemical products [5]. - China Petroleum's chemical business saw operating profits drop by 50%, while Sinopec's chemical segment reported a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% year-on-year [5]. Strategic Shifts - In response to the pressures from the renewable energy sector, the "Three Barrels of Oil" are accelerating their diversification into non-oil businesses [6]. - China Petroleum plans to develop a comprehensive energy service model focusing on oil, gas, hydrogen, electricity, and services, while Sinopec is investing in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and clean energy operations [6]. - Both companies are emphasizing the integration of oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development, aiming to enhance their positions in the evolving energy landscape [6].

Core Insights - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies (China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) experienced a significant decline in net profits in the first three quarters, totaling over 35 billion yuan, primarily due to falling international oil prices [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Petroleum reported a net profit of 126.28 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, while Sinopec and CNOOC reported net profits of 29.98 billion yuan and 101.97 billion yuan, down 32.2% and 12.6% respectively [1] - The combined net profit decline of over 35 billion yuan translates to a daily loss of approximately 380 million yuan [1] Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, leading to an 8.3% decrease in oil and gas revenue to 622.39 billion yuan [1] - CNOOC's average price for crude oil decreased by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, resulting in a 5.9% drop in oil and gas sales revenue to 255.48 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Production and Cost Management - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [2] - CNOOC's net oil and gas production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [2] Group 4: Natural Gas Performance - CNOOC's natural gas production increased by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing the overall growth rate of the company's oil and gas production [2] - The average price of natural gas for CNOOC rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [2]

(本文来自第一财经) 雪佛龙披露，第三季度营收及其他收入497.3亿美元；第三季度调整后每股收益1.85美元。雪佛龙盘前现 涨0.4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by cost and fundamental factors. Supply surplus expectations will put long - term pressure on oil prices, and the entry of the asphalt downstream into the off - season will lead to weakening demand, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,100 - 3,350 yuan/ton [55] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, asphalt showed a weak and volatile trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, due to OPEC+ production increase and macro - negative factors, oil prices declined, weakening the cost support for asphalt. The lackluster peak demand season added downward pressure. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to concerns about supply tightening, driving the market to rebound. Overall, with demand entering the off - season and facing downward pressure, the fundamentals are unlikely to improve effectively, and asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil [6] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" remarks led traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut, with the current expected probability at 71%, down from 90%. The rate cut was in line with market expectations, and future attention should be paid to the US employment market. If economic data further decline, it will intensify concerns about the slowdown of the US economic growth and strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus, suppressing oil prices [11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October. The US - Russia presidential phone call, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia all affected the oil market. The sanctions led to a short - term rebound in the market, but since they are not a full - scale embargo, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited. Geopolitical fluctuations have made the market somewhat desensitized, and the driving force has limited continuity [12] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia as the main contributor. OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, indicating its determination to compete for market share. Market expectations suggest that OPEC+ may continue to slightly increase production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on prices [14] - **IEA Forecast Adjustment**: The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [15] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Production**: In October, domestic asphalt production totaled 2.623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 291,100 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons. Weekly production reached a high at the beginning of the month and then declined as refineries entered the maintenance phase. It is expected that asphalt production will seasonally decline in the fourth quarter, alleviating supply pressure [17] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: In October, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month as refineries entered the seasonal maintenance period and consumer demand entered the off - season. The weekly operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was at a multi - year low and is expected to further decline, gradually easing supply pressure [22] - **Demand Side** - **Overall Demand**: In October, domestic asphalt shipments increased month - on - month in weekly data but were lower than before the National Day. Terminal rush - work drove replenishment demand, but the lackluster peak season led to a decline in terminal demand. As demand enters the off - season, shipments are expected to seasonally decline, and attention should be paid to winter storage [25] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. On October 31, it was 15.03%, 3.91 percentage points lower than the same period last month, showing a trend of first decline and then rebound. As the north enters cold weather, construction is basically completed, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [27] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In September, asphalt imports were 341,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,600 tons, and the import average price increased slightly and remained stable [32] - **Export**: In September, asphalt exports were 79,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons, and the export average price increased slightly and remained stable [38] - **Inventory** - **Factory Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise factory inventory decreased, but the rate of decline slowed down. On October 31, the inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 27,000 tons from the same period last month. It is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the decline rate [43] - **Social Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise asphalt social inventory decreased. On October 31, the inventory was 937,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week and 168,000 tons from the same period last month. Terminal rush - work drove downstream consumption, accelerating the decline. Although demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure is also easing, and it is expected to continue to decline [47] - **Price Spread**: In October, the asphalt crack spread remained stable, and the asphalt processing dilution profit remained at a low level this year. Since the upward rebound momentum of crude oil is insufficient and asphalt fluctuates around oil prices, the crack spread is expected to remain at a high level [51]

格隆汇10月31日｜埃克森美孚石油周五公布的第三季度业绩超出华尔街预期，主要得益于圭亚那和美国 二叠纪盆地的石油和天然气产量增加，抵消了油价下跌的影响。根据LSEG汇编的数据，该公司7月至9 月季度的调整后利润为81亿美元，合每股收益1.88美元，高于分析师普遍预期的1.82美元。作为美国最 大的石油生产商，埃克森强调其丰富的资产组合和技术优势，有助于提高石油采收率，使公司即便在低 油价时期也能保持盈利。 ...

按照美国能源部长赖特的说法，美国有世界上最丰富的天然气和石油储备，而中国是世界上最大能源进口国，双 方完全可以合作共赢。按照这个趋势，美国也很快会跟俄罗斯一样，成为世界上前几位的资源输出国。因为这些 年，美国的去工业化已经解决完成，虽然特朗普企图再次工业化，但是这是不可能实现的。 等特朗普下台，这个吃力不讨好的事情估计就不会有人继续搞了。而抛开美国所剩不多的制造业，其实美国可以 成为金融服务和资源出口的强国，而这主要的服务对象和买家就是我们中国。 各位读者，你们怎么看？欢迎评论区留言讨论。 10月30日，美国能源部长赖特说，如果中国减少从俄罗斯购买石油和天然气，美国准备向中国出售更多石油和天 然气。美中之间有很多互利共赢的交易空间。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，中国石油股份(00857)2025年前九个月净利润同比下降5%，至1,263亿元人民币;第三 季度录得423亿元人民币，同比下降4%，但按季上升14%，优于该行的预测。瑞银上调中石油目标价， 从9.3港元升至10.3港元。鉴于2025年第三季度业绩优于预期，小幅上调中石油2025年预测盈利2%，评 级"买入"。 展望2025年第四季度，瑞银预期，布伦特原油价格平均为63美元/桶;因国内天然气需求进入旺季，预期 天然气价格及销量均可上升。瑞银又认为，炼油及化工基本面可能面临一些压力;并建议关注年底时的 资产减值情况。 长期而言，瑞银预期中石油2026至2028年油价分别为每桶64美元、70美元及75美元，逐步趋稳并反弹; 国内天然气价格可能较海外价格更稳定，因国内天然气需求仍处增长状态;中石油下游炼油及化工细分 市场可受益于反内卷政策。 ...

格隆汇10月31日丨泰山石油(000554.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司涉及充电业务及光伏业务。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, as supply - side disruptions and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Supply uncertainty is intensified by Russia's export decline and potential nationalization of European refineries, but the expected increase in UK North Sea production and the actual enforcement of US sanctions are questionable, which may limit the upside. Weak gasoline and diesel shipments on the demand side suppress refinery开工 willingness, and rising interest - rate hike expectations at the macro - level put pressure on oil prices [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 30, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 462.6 yuan per barrel, a slight 0.24% decline from the previous day, with a narrowed intraday fluctuation range, indicating intensified market long - short game. WTI and Brent closed at $60.36 and $64.3 per barrel respectively, down 1.76% and 0.95% from the previous day, continuing the recent weakness. The SC - Brent spread widened to $0.86 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread rose to $4.8 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $3.94 per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and consecutive three - contract narrowed from - 4.8 yuan per barrel to - 3.5 yuan per barrel, with a slight relief of near - month contango pressure [2]. b. Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply side**: Russian refined oil exports have dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions, which may further compress global refined oil supply. The US sanctions on Rosneft have triggered discussions in Germany about nationalizing its refineries in Germany, which may intensify European energy supply disruptions. BP is exploring new oil and gas resources in Gabon, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax, which may stimulate the recovery of North Sea production and relieve European supply pressure [3]. - **Demand side**: The news in the fuel oil market has improved, but the demand for gasoline and diesel remains weak, with refinery shipments being dull, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Some countries such as Hungary and India still rely on Russian crude oil, showing demand resilience [3]. - **Inventory side**: On October 24, excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 1.334 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 3.362 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and heating oil inventory decreased by 39,000 barrels [4]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, as the supply - side uncertainties and weak demand are in a stalemate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On October 30, 2025, SC was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 0.80% from the previous day; WTI was at $60.29 per barrel, down 0.12%; Brent was at $64.03 per barrel, down 0.42%. - **Spot prices**: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $65.24 per barrel. Brent spot price was down 0.18% to $65.50 per barrel, while Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri prices all increased, with Oman up 3.54% to $66.95 per barrel. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 40.70% to $0.51 per barrel, SC - WTI spread decreased by 11.46% to $4.25 per barrel, Brent - WTI spread decreased by 5.08% to $3.74 per barrel, and SC continuous - consecutive three spread decreased by 22.86% to - 4.30 yuan per barrel. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.40% to 99.52, the S&P 500 dropped 0.99% to 6,822.34 points, the DAX index dropped 0.02% to 24,118.89 points, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.16% to 7.11. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.62% to 415.966 million barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 6.28% to 22.565 million barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.13% to 409.097 million barrels, API inventory decreased by 0.90% to 443.918 million barrels. The US refinery weekly开工 rate dropped 2.26% to 86.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 3.25% to 15.219 million barrels per day [7]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU was at 2,751 yuan per ton, down 1.61%; LU was at 3,255 yuan per ton, up 0.28%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 241.47 cents per gallon, down 0.33%. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the Russian M100 to - shore price, which dropped 2.27% to $431 per ton. - **Paper prices**: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) both decreased by about 0.12%. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 0.38% to $64.79 per ton, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 12.00% to 504 yuan per ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 0.49% to - 1,821 yuan per ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 2.58% to - 1,789 yuan per ton. - **Platts prices**: Platts (380CST) increased by 8.96% to $392.50 per ton, and Platts (180CST) increased by 9.13% to $397.43 per ton. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% to 23.027 million tons, US distillate inventories in different sulfur - content ranges also changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On October 30, Russian refined oil exports dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions. BP has signed an agreement to explore oil and gas offshore in Gabon. The US sanctions on Rosneft have led to discussions in Germany about nationalizing its business in Germany [9][10]. b. Demand - The crude oil trend has improved slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market has improved, but gasoline and diesel shipments are still weak, with terminal demand being hard to boost, and refinery shipments are dull. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments [11]. c. Inventory - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore for the week ending October 29 was to be announced [12]. d. Market Information - As of 2:30 on October 31, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.11%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.47%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.24%. Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get economic stimulus and exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with US President Trump. India is studying the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly开工 rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum)开工 rate, Chinese refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, and fuel oil inventory [14][16][18][20][21][23][27][29][33][34][36][40][41][43][47][48][50][54][57][58][59].