Core Insights - Hong Kong's overall manufacturing industrial production index increased by 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, following a 0.9% rise in Q2 2025 [1] - The producer price index also saw a significant increase of 7.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared to a 4% rise in Q2 2025 [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - Key industries that recorded production increases in Q3 2025 include: - Metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, with a rise of 6.1% - Food, beverages, and tobacco products, increasing by 2.5% - Paper products, printing, and recorded media replication, up by 1.0% [2] - The textile and apparel industry experienced a decline of 5.2% in production [2] Price Index Analysis - The producer price index reflects changes in local production prices, with all major manufacturing sectors showing price increases in Q3 2025 compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The largest increase in producer prices was seen in metals, computers, electronics, and optical products at 14.6%, followed by textiles and apparel at 2.7%, paper products, printing, and recorded media replication at 1.5%, and food, beverages, and tobacco products at 1.0% [2]

新华财经北京12月15日电（罗浩）科创板两大股指15日早间均显著低开，两股指早盘期间多次上攻未果 后转为震荡下行，午后延续波动下探态势，收盘时均大幅下跌。至收盘时，科创综指收于1580.32点， 跌幅1.96%，总成交额约1908亿元，总成交额较上一交易日显著缩量。科创50指数收盘报1318.91点，跌 幅2.22%，成分股总成交额约583亿元，较上一交易日大幅缩量。 当日，科创板个股涨少跌多，172股收涨，占比约28.91%。细分领域中，金属股多数上涨，环境保护股 和医疗保健股表现分化，软件服务股、半导体股、生物医药股多数下跌。 经新华财经统计，12月15日，科创板595股平均跌幅1.11%，平均换手率2.71%，合计成交额1907.83亿 元，平均振幅为4.06%。 个股表现方面，艾森股份收于20%涨停，涨幅居首；品茗科技下跌18.67%，跌幅居首。 成交额方面，寒武纪成交额86.68亿元，位居首位；ST帕瓦成交额461.43万元，位居末位。 换手率方面，恒坤新材换手率为32.69%，位居首位；安旭生物换手率为0.13%，位居末位。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——资产配置全球跟踪 2025 年 12 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 12/08-12/12，全球风险偏好明显降温，贵金属和部分新兴市场权益跑赢。A 股与中 债国债间负相关程度重回 0.5。COMEX 铜库存连续 40 周上涨。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 成交活跃度升高，创业板指估值领涨 2025.12.13 资产概览：商品/权益上涨，中债熊陡 2025.12.09 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强 2025.12.09 融资资金延续流入，ETF 平稳回流 2025.12.08 成交活跃度走高，创业板指 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the 2026 economic work is on "qualitative effective improvement" through optimizing fiscal expenditure and income structure, deepening industrial policy, and enhancing monetary policy coordination, laying the foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The capital market is expected to benefit from qualitative improvements, with profit growth driving market development, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector [1][6] - Key sectors to watch include chemicals, new energy chains, real estate chains, and healthcare chains, as well as the potential for service consumption growth [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The economic policy for 2026 emphasizes a combination of cross-cycle and counter-cyclical measures, focusing on qualitative improvements rather than quantitative growth, differing significantly from the 2024 approach [2][3] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize through risk mitigation measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing construction [4][14] - The automotive industry anticipates a flat or slightly positive growth in domestic insurance demand for 2026, supported by trade-in and scrappage policies [11][12] - The metal sector is projected to benefit from domestic demand-driven economic models, with a focus on aluminum, copper, and gold prices due to supportive macro policies [9][10] Additional Important Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to see significant AI integration, enhancing production efficiency and driving industrial upgrades [17][18] - The semiconductor equipment, liquid cooling equipment, and power facility sectors are anticipated to enter a phase of order and revenue realization in 2026 [18] - The AI application landscape is set for substantial growth, particularly in robotics and smart hardware, with major companies planning product launches [19] - The real estate market's inventory is expected to decrease significantly, improving fundamentals and benefiting companies focused on improving housing supply [16] - The non-banking financial sector is encouraged to enhance capital market reforms, with a focus on improving the quality of small financial institutions [27][28] Recommendations for Investment - In the automotive sector, companies with high overseas exposure and strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD, are recommended [13] - For the metal sector, companies like China Aluminum, China Nonferrous Mining, and Wugang Resources are highlighted due to their potential in aluminum and copper markets [9][10] - In the real estate sector, firms focusing on improving housing supply in core cities are expected to benefit from supportive policies [14][16] - In the semiconductor and equipment sectors, companies involved in AI infrastructure and related technologies are recommended for investment [17][18]

周期论剑｜解读重要会议对周期的方向指引 20251214 很多投资者对跨周期调控存在误解，认为政策不够积极。然而，从去年（2024 年）的经济工作会议可以看到，当时由于尾部风险暴露，需要超常规政策，例 如 10 万亿化债举措。而今年（2025 年）则不同，在尾部风险得到基本管控后， 需要进一步巩固和拓展经济稳中向好的势头。因此，本次会议明确提出要巩固 和拓展经济稳中向好的势头，并强调财政政策更加积极，同时提出内需主导和 推动投资止跌回稳等新概念。 对于明年的财政政策有哪些具体预期？ 摘要 中国市场有望迎来转型牛市，预计春节前达到新高，市场流动性将因再 配置和机构资金回流而改善，中证 800 代表的大盘风格预计在春节前占 优。 预计明年财政赤字率维持在 4%左右，总规模约 5.9 万亿人民币，地方 政府专项债券预计 4.6-4.8 万亿，超长期特别国债增加至 1.5-1.6 万亿， 以旧换新计划扩围至 3,500 亿，刺激耐用消费品消费。 预计明年初中国央行可能降息，以应对经济活动转淡和房地产销售下滑， 推动经济回稳和价格合理回升。 年初具有较强景气度并可能推动估值切换的行业包括出口、制造业全球 扩张和人工智能 ...

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...

Market Overview - The overall market was relatively sluggish, but the North Exchange 50 index surged, rising over 6% during the afternoon session, making it the only index in the A-share market to show gains [1][14]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1,324.2 billion, with 1,154 stocks rising, 73 remaining flat, and 4,226 declining [2][15]. North Exchange 50 Performance - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1,476.97, with a gain of 87.17 points, representing a 6.27% increase [2][15]. - The trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was reported at approximately 200 billion, which is a significant increase compared to the recent daily average of around 100 billion [5][16]. Fund Inflows and Investment Trends - The surge in the North Exchange 50 is attributed to passive inflows from newly opened two-year fixed-term theme funds, as the North Exchange 50 ETF has not yet been issued [4][18]. - There are currently 11 funds focused on the North Exchange, all of which are two-year fixed-term funds, indicating a growing interest from investors [18][19]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable interest from retail investors in the North Exchange funds, with a significant increase in the number of views on these funds, suggesting a strong demand for entry into the market [22]. - The best-performing stocks in the North Exchange are primarily in the basic metals and aerospace software sectors, which are popular among investors due to their low market capitalization compared to similar sectors [22]. Investment Strategies - The market appears to be divided into two camps: one focusing on long-term value investing, while the other follows a "trend-following" strategy, which emphasizes buying into rising stocks and sectors [24][26]. - Recent reports suggest that "buying the dip" strategies may not perform as well as trend-following strategies, indicating a shift in investment approaches among market participants [25][26].

证券之星消息，12月11日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.02%，闽发铝业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3873.32，下跌0.7%。深证成指报收于13147.39，下跌1.27%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出26.12亿元，游资资金净流入3.42亿元，散户资金 净流入22.69亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

格隆汇12月10日丨伦敦金属交易所（LME）周三公布的数据显示，11月份中国产铜在LME可用库存中 的比例上升，由于有利的价格套利，刺激了中国出口。数据显示，截至上月底，LME仓库中可用的 （即持有仓单的）中国产铜库存占比为85%，高于10月份的82%。LME仓单是确认所有权的凭证。从绝 对数量看，由于LME价格高于中国国内价格，使金属出口更具利润，截至上月底LME的中国铜库存增 至130225吨，高于10月份的100400吨。 ...

随着投资者等待美国联邦储备委员会本年度最后一次政策会议，以探寻央行对 2026 年美国经济的看 法，铜及其他工业金属价格走高。 伦敦金属交易所铜价一度上涨 1.3%，至每吨 11641.50 美元，收复了前一交易日的大部分跌幅。投资者 预计美联储将在周三晚些时候宣布降息 25 个基点，市场关注的核心将是美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔如 何阐述央行对明年经济增长、通胀及利率的看法。 美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普物色接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选凯文・哈塞特周二表示，他认为 存在充足空间来大幅下调利率。 作为电气化和能源转型的关键金属，伦敦金属交易所铜价今年已累计上涨超 30%。本周早些时候，受 市场担忧大量铜流向美国以提前规避可能的进口关税、进而导致其他地区供应短缺的影响，铜价一度触 及每吨 11771 美元的历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所铜价一度上涨 1.3%，至每吨 11641.50 美元，收复了前一交易日的大部分跌幅。投资者 预计美联储将在周三晚些时候宣布降息 25 个基点，市场关注的核心将是美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔如 何阐述央行对明年经济增长、通胀及利率的看法。 美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普物色接替鲍威尔出任美联储主 ...