中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a strong performance over the past six months, starting at 19,600 and reaching a high of 24,800, with a current level around 24,200, indicating a fluctuation of over 5,000 points [1] - The pharmaceutical sector has been the best-performing industry, with notable stocks like Kangfang Biotech (9926), China Biologic Products (1177), and WuXi Biologics (2269) showing exceptional gains [1] - Technology stocks, particularly Xiaomi (01810), have also performed well, with a 74% increase, while NetEase (09999) and Kuaishou (01024) saw gains of 50% and 48%, respectively [1] IPO and Derivative Market - The overall Hong Kong stock market has strengthened significantly in the first half of the year compared to 2023, with notable IPOs such as CATL and increased interest in consumer stocks like Pop Mart (9992) [2] - The issuance of structured products has been active, with the market responding to stock price movements, particularly for high-performing stocks [2] Investment Signals - The current sentiment in the market shows a bullish outlook, with 70% of investors holding bullish positions in HSI bull certificates, while 30% are bearish [5] - Caution is advised as the market lacks strong momentum, and there may be a potential pullback to around 23,700 before any further upward movement [5] Stock Analysis - Xiaomi has recently launched a new product, the YU7 car, which received 200,000 orders within an hour, driving its stock price to around 61, marking a 74% increase in the first half of the year [9] - BYD's sales in June reached 382,000 vehicles, with stock prices showing resilience around the 120 mark, indicating potential for further gains [13] - China Construction Bank has seen its stock price rise above 8, with a strong buy signal indicated for its derivatives [16] - China General Nuclear Power (01816) has shown a steady upward trend, with a buy signal for its structured products [19]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

集运欧线： EC 早盘偏弱运行， 08 合约收于 1761.4 点，下跌 1.92% 。 6 月 30 日最新公布的 SCFIS 欧 线为 2123.24 点，对应于 06.23-06.29 的离港结算价，较上期上涨 9.6% ，对应于 6 月最后一周的结算 价，对应大柜运价超 3100 美元，超市场预期。 2506 合约交割，交割结算价为 1919.3 点。美西运价的 快速见顶和迅速回落以及马士基在 7 月连续两周的调降令市场对于欧线运价在 7 月中旬见顶预期加强， 市场跟随预期转弱。目前统计到的欧线在接下来的 7 月 8 月周均运力投放仍在 29 万 TEU 左右，较为充 裕，再加上马士基带头降价揽货行为对市场预期的影响，预计随着旺季预期的边际变化，后续市场将逐 渐转为博弈旺季见顶后的淡季现货运价，见顶预期将继续发酵。 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指反弹，小盘股活跃，国防军工板块领涨，市场成交额 1.52 万亿元。资金方面， 6 月 27 日融资余额增加 9.06 亿元至 18274.60 亿元。当前市场整体开始有突破前期 震荡出现开始向上突破的迹象，操作上股指期货建议偏多为主，股指期权建议买权 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity market in the second half of 2025 Core Insights - The global commodity market is influenced by the U.S. tariff policy, which affects various commodities differently, leading to increased price volatility and risk [1][4] - Two major factors are expected to impact the commodity market in the second half of 2025: fundamental changes and cost support levels [1][5] - The effectiveness of agricultural commodity CTA strategies has increased due to the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global commodity prices [1][6] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The outlook for the global commodity market in the second half of 2025 can be summarized by two main viewpoints: consensus expectations and changing factors [2] - Historical trends indicate that commodity markets often experience either broad increases or decreases, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies [2] Price Dynamics - Commodity prices being close to cost lines does not necessarily indicate future price declines; it requires consideration of fundamental changes and the reasons behind current cost distributions [3][8] - The oil market in the first half of 2025 showed poor performance due to a downward revision in global demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC sources [11] Specific Commodity Trends - Copper is expected to face short-term demand risks but maintains a reasonable price level due to long-term supply shortages [12] - Iron ore prices are projected to gradually decline to around 90 USD as the market becomes more balanced [13] - Gold has seen significant increases in ETF holdings, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset, although recent growth has plateaued [14] Structural Adjustments - The overall commodity market is anticipated to undergo structural adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a focus on supply-side variables and potential marginal cost reductions [15]

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Profit Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May [3][4] - The decline in profits is attributed to multiple factors including reduced working days, tariff adjustments causing delays in orders and production, and a decrease in both volume and price, leading to a 2.7% increase in operating income [4][5] - The profit margin for the first five months was 4.97%, down 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a worsening profitability situation for industrial enterprises [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Chinese economy has maintained stable growth despite external pressures, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing market expectations [8] - The report anticipates a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the latter half of 2025 due to declining export momentum and diminishing policy effects, with infrastructure investment being crucial for achieving annual GDP growth targets [8][9] - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with potential measures including the issuance of government bonds to support economic growth [9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Strategy - The fixed income market saw a significant increase in the issuance of government bonds in the first half of 2025, with net financing close to 3.4 trillion yuan, double that of the same period in 2024 [10][11] - The report suggests that the bond market will remain in a volatile state, with limited opportunities for significant trends, emphasizing the importance of tactical trading strategies [16] - The anticipated monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, are expected to influence the bond market dynamics positively [16] Group 4: Metal Industry Investment Strategy - The metal industry report highlights strong price trends for copper, aluminum, gold, cobalt, and rare earth elements, with gold expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts [23][25] - The report notes a recovery in rare earth export demand, driven by the growth in the new energy and robotics sectors, following recent adjustments in export controls [25][26] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with strong resource bases and cost control capabilities in the gold and rare earth sectors [27] Group 5: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant developments in high-end medical device innovation and new drug approvals [28][29] - The report indicates a rebound in the pharmaceutical market, driven by improved policies and a reduction in negative impacts from previous regulations [30] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving performance metrics, particularly in the CXO and medical device segments [30]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the financial market, including the performance of major indices and sector trends [4][12]. - It emphasizes the impact of government policies on various industries, particularly in the context of digital assets and environmental initiatives [6][8]. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23, down 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10378.55 [4]. - The report notes a total trading volume of 15,411 billion, with 3,227 stocks rising and 1,662 falling, indicating a slight contraction in market activity [12]. Industry Developments - Hong Kong has introduced a new digital asset policy, accelerating the ecosystem for stablecoin applications, with related stocks including Jingbeifang (002987) and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) [8]. - The offshore engineering equipment industry is being catalyzed by new policies, with companies like Hailanxin (300065) and Yaxing Maolian (601890) positioned to benefit [8]. - Platinum prices have surged to a 10-year high, significantly outpacing gold, with related stocks such as Gebijia (835438) and Guiyan Platinum (600459) highlighted [8]. Company Focus - Wenkang New Energy (688779) is focusing on the development of solid-state battery materials, achieving cumulative shipments of over 100 kilograms for some products [10]. - Zhongji Renjian (301508) has established a testing facility for new energy batteries, capable of meeting the demands for solid-state battery testing [10]. - Changliang Technology (300348) is actively researching digital solutions related to stablecoins [10]. Market Review and Outlook - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a slight contraction, with a notable performance in industrial metals and technology sectors, while banking and oil sectors are facing declines [12][13]. - The report suggests that the market is showing resilience, with strong support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a lower probability of significant downturns in the short term [12]. - There is a strong interest in technology sectors such as chips and lithium batteries, suggesting a continued aggressive investment approach in these areas [13].

创业板指盘初涨超1%，深证成指现涨0.77%，工业金属板块领涨大盘。 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - **Precious Metals**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].