Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report Core View - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's probability of interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the aluminum price rises and then falls. The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the inventory is weaker than expected, the absolute value of social inventory is low. The macro - environment is still promising. Overseas, the spot premium of aluminum ingots continues to rise, and there is seasonal restocking in Q4. Domestically, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the output of aluminum rods is increasing. If the social inventory is destocked smoothly, the aluminum price may break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. The current fundamentals have no positive factors, and the price is undervalued, but there may be continuous disturbances in overseas mines [7][8]. Summary by Related Data Aluminum Spot - On November 20, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,570 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,480 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,450 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,620 yuan/ton, closed at 21,530 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,640 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,515 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,843 lots, and the position was 338,582 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 69,408 tons, with a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,740 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.26%. The highest price was 2,748 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,716 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 266,933 lots, and the position was 411,305 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. (Electric Power Investment) has been successfully completed, increasing its market capitalization from 40 billion to 60 billion yuan, marking a significant step in resource integration within the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) [1] Group 1: Restructuring Details - Electric Power Investment announced its restructuring plan on April 30, 2023, and officially disclosed the draft on May 19, 2023, with the final report released on November 14, 2023 [2] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., Ltd. for 11.149 billion yuan and raise up to 4.5 billion yuan from no more than 35 specific investors [2] - Post-restructuring, the largest shareholder's stake will decrease from 55.77% to 43.24%, while SPIC's Inner Mongolia Energy Co., Ltd. will become the second-largest shareholder with a 22.46% stake [2] Group 2: Financial Impact - Baiyinhu Coal Power's net asset value is assessed at 7.533 billion yuan, with an appraisal value of 10.998 billion yuan, reflecting a 46% increase [3] - Following the transaction, Electric Power Investment's total assets will rise from 54.979 billion yuan to 80.079 billion yuan, while total liabilities will increase from 14.989 billion yuan to 33.318 billion yuan, resulting in a rise in the debt-to-asset ratio from 27.26% to 41.61% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2023, Electric Power Investment reported revenue of 22.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%, but a net profit decline of 6.40% [3] Group 3: Performance Commitments - The restructuring includes performance commitments, ensuring that Baiyinhu Coal Power achieves a cumulative net profit of no less than 1.663 billion yuan during the commitment period [4] - If the transaction is completed in 2026, the profit commitments for the aluminum assets are set at 678 million yuan, 528 million yuan, and 526 million yuan for the respective years [4] Group 4: Strategic Advantages - The acquisition is expected to enhance Electric Power Investment's coal production capacity from 48 million tons to 63 million tons, a 31.3% increase [6] - Baiyinhu Coal Power's integration will strengthen the "coal-electricity-aluminum" synergy, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the industry [5][6] - Analysts predict that the acquisition could increase Electric Power Investment's annual net profit by approximately 1.867 billion yuan, representing a potential profit increase of over 30% [7] Group 5: Market Reaction and Valuation - Following the announcement of the asset restructuring, Electric Power Investment's stock price has risen over 62%, adding more than 20 billion yuan to its market capitalization [7] - Current estimates suggest that Electric Power Investment's intrinsic value could reach 94.375 billion yuan, indicating that the market's recognition of the company's value has room for improvement [8]

Core Insights - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported a 0.6% year-on-year increase in global primary aluminum production for October, reaching 6.294 million tons, with a daily average production of 203,000 tons [1] - Excluding China and unreported regions, the primary aluminum production in October was 2.314 million tons, with a daily average of 74,600 tons [1]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley reports an improved outlook for the aluminum industry, driven by demand from energy storage systems (ESS) exceeding expectations and supply challenges due to power issues [1] - The demand for aluminum in China is expected to see significant growth due to ESS and other consumer electronics, with the share of ESS in China's overall battery installations increasing from 25% in June to over 40% [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that every 100GWh of ESS will consume 160,000 tons of aluminum, projecting global ESS capacity to reach 350GWh in 2024 and 600GWh in 2025, with a further 50% growth expected by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply Challenges - Supply is facing challenges, with global production expected to reach approximately 1.4 million tons by 2026, and Indonesia identified as a key new supply source [2] - Due to China's commitment to not build new coal-fired power plants abroad for carbon neutrality, local partnerships will be necessary for Chinese companies to secure power, which may delay production [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that Indonesia's new supply will only add 700,000 tons by 2026, and global production interruptions this year have already resulted in a loss of about 700,000 tons of capacity [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Support - Current aluminum inventory in China is low at 600,000 tons, which is relatively low compared to historical levels over the past five years [2] - The government encourages increasing the proportion of molten aluminum from approximately 77% to 90% by 2027, which may reduce the availability of deliverable aluminum ingots in the futures market, thereby supporting aluminum prices [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports an improved outlook for the aluminum industry, driven by demand from energy storage systems (ESS) exceeding expectations and supply challenges due to power issues [1] - The firm has raised the target price for China Hongqiao (01378) from HKD 30.6 to HKD 44.7, maintaining it as a preferred stock with an "overweight" rating [1] - Demand for aluminum in China is expected to grow significantly due to ESS and other consumer electronics, with ESS's share of total battery installations in China increasing from 25% in June to over 40% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, Morgan Stanley anticipates global aluminum production to reach approximately 1.4 million tons by 2026, with Indonesia being a key new supply source [2] - However, China's commitment to not build new coal-fired power plants abroad to achieve carbon neutrality poses challenges for new supply, potentially delaying power construction for 18 to 24 months [2] - Current aluminum inventory in China is low at 600,000 tons, which is relatively low compared to historical levels over the past five years, and government policies may further reduce available aluminum on the futures market [2]

Core Points - The chairman of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yun Aluminum) has resigned due to work changes, and the board has appointed Huang Li to act as the chairman temporarily until a new chairman is elected [2][6][8] Group 1: Resignation and Transition - Ji Shujun has submitted his resignation as the chairman and other positions within the company, effective immediately upon delivery to the board [2][6] - The board expressed gratitude for Ji Shujun's contributions during his tenure, highlighting his efforts in promoting the company's development as a leading green and low-carbon aluminum enterprise [2][6] Group 2: Board Meeting and Decisions - The 18th (temporary) meeting of the 9th board of directors was held on November 20, 2025, with all 10 directors present [4][5] - The board unanimously approved the proposal to appoint Huang Li as the acting chairman and legal representative of the company [5][7] - A proposal to elect Zhang Dejiao as a non-independent director was also approved, pending shareholder approval [8][9] Group 3: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting - The company will hold its third temporary shareholder meeting on December 9, 2025, combining on-site and online voting [16][17] - The meeting will allow shareholders to vote on the proposed election of Zhang Dejiao and other matters [9][24]

Group 1 - The company plans to issue up to 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, raising a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which represents a discount of approximately 9.6% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The funds raised will be used to optimize the capital structure and support the development of domestic and overseas projects, including a significant aluminum production capacity in China and a joint venture in Guinea [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in 2026-2027, supported by a strong outlook for aluminum prices and an improved capital structure, which may facilitate continued high dividend policies [1] Group 2 - The company is actively pursuing a "large-scale buyback + high dividend" strategy, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for HKD 2.6 billion in the first half of the year and planning a new round of buybacks totaling at least HKD 3 billion [2] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 45% since 2020, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4% over the past three years, reflecting confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3 - The profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to continue expanding, potentially offsetting downward pressure from alumina prices, as domestic production capacity is strictly limited while demand remains strong [3] - The company’s main businesses include alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices currently at a low point, limiting the potential for significant further declines [3] - The company maintains optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of CNY 25.625 billion, CNY 25.426 billion, and CNY 25.760 billion, respectively, and a target price of HKD 35.22 based on a 12X PE ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a pricing section for aluminum trading at the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center starting from November 21, 2025, which will include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1] Group 1 - The launch date for the new pricing section is set for November 21, 2025 [1] - The types of products to be quoted include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1]

需求端：储能成为"隐形巨兽" 摩根士丹利最新预测，全球铝市场将在2026年陷入供应短缺，这一时间点明显早于市场此前的普遍预期。核心驱动力来自于供需剪刀差的急剧扩大： 在需求端，储能系统（ESS）对铝的消耗呈现"暴冲"态势，完全抵消了其他板块的疲软；而在供给端，全球电力紧张正成为硬约束，AI算力对电力的争 夺正在挤压由于高耗能而脆弱的铝冶炼产能。 市场长期以来低估了能源转型对基础金属的消耗，尤其是储能领域。大摩的数据不仅令人惊讶，更是敲响了警钟： 华尔街正在修正对铝市场的预期。摩根士丹利在11月19日发布的最新重磅研报中指出，铝的基本面正在经历结构性逆转。 摩根士丹利最新报告指出全球铝市场将在2026年陷入供应短缺，这一时间点较市场预期提前至少一年。铝市场正面临结构性转变，核心驱动在于需求端 因储能系统爆发式增长，预计2026年仅该领域就将带来144万吨新增铝需求；而供应端受制于全球电力短缺，印尼新增产能投产延迟且AI算力中心争夺 电力资源，导致供需缺口持续扩大。 此前，市场主流观点较为保守。花旗分析师曾预测全球原铝供应缺口将从2027年开始出现，Wood Mackenzie则认为短缺将始于2028年。摩根士丹 ...

Group 1 - The company, Minfa Aluminum (002578), responded to investor inquiries on November 20 regarding the number of shareholders, indicating that detailed information can be found in the periodic report [1]