[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

Fixed Income - The overall credit spread across various industries has compressed, with the AA agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experiencing a significant reduction of 9 basis points [2][9] - The issuance rates for AA-rated industrial bonds and AAA-rated financial bonds have decreased significantly, while the issuance rate for AA-rated urban investment bonds has increased [7] - The market is optimistic about credit bonds yielding over 2%, suggesting investors should consider extending duration and exploring opportunities in the newly approved science and technology innovation bond ETFs [10] Maternal and Infant Industry - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, such as childcare subsidies and housing benefits, are expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry [12] - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is projected to reach 762.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth trend from 2018 to 2024 [12] - The market for maternal and infant chain stores is growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% expected from 2019 to 2024, indicating significant room for growth in lower-tier cities [12][13] Transportation Industry - The Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, particularly TikTok Shop, has shown substantial growth, benefiting logistics companies in the region [16][17] - The civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 21.01 million in the first month of the summer travel period [19] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Shentong and JD Logistics is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs significantly [18][29] Deep Sea Economy - The deep-sea economy is gaining attention, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.9% [34] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected increase in value added from 1,032 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,126 billion yuan in 2025 [34] - There are 11 companies listed on the North Exchange involved in the deep-sea economy, indicating a growing interest in this sector [34][35] AI Applications - The AI companionship product "EVE" has begun testing, highlighting the advancement of AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce, gaming, and education [12] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are continuously iterating on foundational technologies and products, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [12] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from OPEC+'s production increase, which may enhance the demand for oil transportation [23][31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards more efficient operations, with companies like Shenzhen International and DeBang Logistics poised for growth due to strategic transformations [30] - The overall shipping market is recovering, with environmental regulations driving the retirement of older vessels, thus improving market conditions [31][32]

眼看所谓的"90天关税宽限期"只剩下两天时间了，但是到最后和美国达成关税协议的，似乎也只有越南 和英国。 我们自然是对美国进行坚决反制的，而其他国家更多的还是处于观望的态度，至于印度这次的做法，则 有些让人感到不可思议了。 美印之间还没有谈妥，印度就直接通告全球，要对美国加征报复性关税，这次的印度是打算断掉特朗普 的后路！ 印度雄起了？ 特朗普自从4月2日宣布所谓的对等关税之后，全世界对特朗普只有骂声一片，因为特朗普实在是愧对于 自己的"懂王"称号。 这位懂王，看似什么都懂，可是实际上呢？美国作为全世界最大的消费国，在拥有美元霸权的前提下， 和世界上其他国家拥有贸易逆差是一件再正常不过的事情了。 换句话说，美国只是用了一张纸，就从其他国家换来了工业品以及生产力，所以美国和其他国家存在贸 易逆差，是在正常不过的事情了。 但是特朗普不管这么多，他只看到贸易逆差的数字，于是他决定对其他国家发起所谓的对等关税，妄图 解决这一情况，但是这是一件不可能完成的事情。 中国作为世界上第一个对美国说不，并且施加反制措施的国家，中美前段时间打的那场关税战，可谓是 打的昏天暗地，直接让全世界最强大的两个国家陷入到了短暂脱钩的情况之 ...

就在美国准备对包括印度在内的12个国家下最后通牒时，印度突然宣布，将对美国部分商品加征高达7.25亿美元的报复性关税。 这一举动不仅打乱了特朗普精心布置的谈判节奏，更向全球释放了一个信号，印度不接受最后通牒，更不会任人摆布。 这场突如其来的反击，发生在美国对等关税90天缓冲期即将结束之前，7月9日，也就是两天之后，美国将正式对未签署贸易协议的国家，启动新一轮关税制 裁。 而就在这关键节点，印度以迅雷不及掩耳之势出手，在WTO框架内递交了正式文件，准备迎战美国的极限施压。 当特朗普忙着在社交平台炫耀"90天搞定90国"的关税战绩时，新德里的决策者们正翻着美国非政府组织十年来的资金流水。 今年3月，印度警方突袭8家美索罗斯系机构，意外发现一笔2100万美元的"民主援助"资金神秘蒸发。调查显示，其中1340万美元被用于培训邻国孟加拉国的 政治活动人士，直接导致该国总理在示威浪潮中下台。 这笔账让印度猛然警觉——那些年街头的反政府标语，背后是否也飘着美元油墨味？ 特朗普政府惯常的策略是设定一个明确的"最后期限"，以此施加极限压力。在与印度的贸易谈判中，7月9日就被白宫赋予了这样一层含义。 印度的"反击"战略，已经进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Feihe's mid-term performance is under pressure, with significant declines in revenue and net profit expected for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Feihe anticipates revenue between 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 1 billion yuan from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The expected net profit is around 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, representing a decline of 37.2% to 47.6% compared to 1.91 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market reacted sharply to Feihe's performance outlook, with the stock price dropping nearly 15% at opening, reaching a low of 4.65 HKD, with a decline exceeding 18% during the trading session [3]. Group 3: Subsidy Program Impact - The primary reason for the performance decline is attributed to the fertility subsidy program launched in early April, which involves a special fund of 1.2 billion yuan to provide at least 1,500 yuan in milk powder subsidies to eligible pregnant families nationwide [4]. - The subsidy program allows pregnant women over 26 weeks to claim milk powder, and in June, Feihe expanded the subsidy to families with babies under 12 months who have not previously purchased Feihe's infant formula [5]. Group 4: Sales Channel and Inventory Management - The subsidy products can only be shipped directly from the manufacturer to consumers, which has weakened the performance contribution from traditional sales channels [6]. - Some subsidized products have not reached end consumers and have instead entered the market through second-hand platforms, further impacting the pricing structure [7]. - To ensure product freshness and health, Feihe proactively reduced inventory levels of infant formula, with adjustments expected to conclude by the third quarter of 2025 [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Market views suggest that the fertility subsidy is seen as a limited sales growth driver and more as a marketing strategy to capture market share and reach a broader potential user base [8]. - Following Feihe's announcement of the subsidy, competitors like Yili and Junlebao quickly introduced their own subsidy programs, indicating intensified competition in the infant formula market [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, Feihe experienced a revenue rebound in 2024 due to the "Dragon Baby" effect, with revenues surpassing 20 billion yuan [9]. - Analysts predict that the birth rate recovery in 2024 may lead to market expansion for infant formula, with a narrowing decline in sales expected in 2025 [10]. - The overall sales of infant formula in the domestic market grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to April 2025, primarily driven by price increases [11][12]. Group 7: Product Strategy - While sales of ultra-high-end and high-end products have declined, the ultra-high-end segment and milk powder sales have seen a 13.3% year-on-year increase, now accounting for over one-third of the overall market [13]. - Feihe's strategy to upgrade its product mix to higher price points has been a key contributor to its performance, with an average price increase of over 40 yuan per can in 2024 [14]. - The "Xing Fei Fan Zhuo Rui" product line saw a 62% increase in sales, becoming the top-selling product in the infant formula segment [14]. Group 8: Profit Management - Feihe plans to adjust subsidies to maintain profit levels, reducing the "electronic fence" subsidy from 20 yuan to 15 yuan per can, effectively increasing the price by 5 yuan per can [15]. - For the full year, Feihe expects low single-digit growth and aims to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a total dividend payout of no less than 2 billion yuan in 2025, alongside a 1 billion yuan share buyback plan [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

证券研究报告 生育政策密集出台或将刺激行业发展，关注北交所母婴行业相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十一期（20250706） 投资要点： | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 政策出台有望鼓励生育，或将刺激母婴行业发展。国务院、各地政府出台育儿补贴、购房优 惠等政策，有望刺激母婴行业的发展。根据国家统计局，2024 年中国出生人口 954 万，为 2017 年以来首次回升，而根据艾媒咨询数据，2018-2024 年中国母婴消费市场规模稳步上升， 2024 年达 76299 亿元。中国乳制品行业规模不断扩大，但奶类产量 2024 年有所下降，根据 南方乳业招股书、灼识咨询数据，2024 年中国乳制品规模约 5216.70 亿元，预计 2026 年达 5966.60 亿元。中国婴幼儿辅食市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural opportunities dominating. Focus on "category innovation + channel efficiency" is essential for capturing profit recovery and differentiation opportunities [4][6][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, the food and beverage industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 1,091.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 5.51% to CNY 217.11 billion. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth of 2.54% and a slight net profit increase of 0.27% [4][23] Alcoholic Beverages - The wine sector is facing a weak macro environment, with revenue growth slowing to 1.68% in Q1 2025. The sector is under pressure from inventory levels and a recent ban on alcohol, which is expected to suppress demand in the short term [5][24][26] Snack Foods - The snack food sector is projected to grow by 12.74% in 2024, but growth slowed to 0.29% in Q1 2025. Despite challenges, there are opportunities in specific categories like konjac products, which have seen growth rates exceeding 70% [6][39][54] Condiments - The condiment sector is benefiting from cost reductions due to falling raw material prices, with gross margins improving to 36.38% in Q1 2025. However, demand is showing signs of divergence between B2B and B2C segments [7][14] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is under pressure, with revenue and profit declining further in Q1 2025. However, the baking segment is experiencing significant growth due to new retail formats and consumer demand [8][19] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is witnessing a recovery in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize. In Q1 2025, major companies like Yili and Bright Dairy reported net profit increases of 24.19% and 2.45%, respectively [9][20] Key Companies and Forecasts - Key companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Three Squirrels are expected to maintain strong performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a revenue growth of around 9% in 2025 [12][35][58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure, with overall collection progress in Q2 lagging behind last year, and sales showing a year-on-year gap. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are under pressure due to regulatory measures aimed at reducing waste [5][15] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and dairy products, is expected to show varying performance, with some companies like Qingdao Beer and Yili maintaining growth while others face challenges [6][18] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth driven by channel optimization and product innovation, with companies like Youfu Foods and Yanjin Beer showing significant revenue increases [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - Q2 performance is expected to be weak for most liquor companies, with Moutai projected to have a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to decline by 2% [16] - Regulatory measures have impacted normal consumption scenarios, leading to a cautious approach from companies as they prepare for traditional consumption peaks during festivals [15] 2. Beer Sector - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth due to low sales base in Q2 2024, while Chongqing Beer is projected to maintain sales levels [17] - Yanjin Beer is benefiting from supply chain management improvements, contributing to profitability [18] 3. Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while other products like milk powder and ice cream continue to grow [18] - New Dairy is projected to maintain its performance in low-temperature categories, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [18] 4. Soft Drinks - Eastroc Beverage is anticipated to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, while new products are expected to drive higher growth rates [19] - Chengde Lululemon is expected to see improvements in gross margins despite raw material price increases [19] 5. Snack Foods - Youfu Foods is focusing on channel optimization and product innovation, expecting significant revenue and profit growth [19] - Salted Fish and other snack companies are also projected to maintain strong growth, with new product launches expected to drive performance in the second half of the year [19][21] 6. Restaurant Supply Chain - Anji Foods is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth, while competition continues to pressure margins [20] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is projected to maintain stable revenue, with slight pressure in the small B restaurant segment [20] 7. Export Companies - Zhongchong Co. is expected to maintain high revenue growth due to positive pre-sale feedback, while Xianle Health is projected to continue its growth trend despite some fluctuations in export business [21]