Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 reached 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, an increase of 31.17% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 270 million yuan, an increase of 26.85% year-on-year [2][4] - The improvement in gross margin is primarily driven by structural optimization, with the gross margin for H1 2025 increasing by 0.79 percentage points to 30.02% [6] - The company has focused on regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation strategies, achieving a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's H1 2025 total revenue was 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in profitability [2][4] - The Q2 2025 results showed continued revenue growth and significant profit increases, indicating a positive trend in financial performance [2][4] Structural Optimization - New product revenue accounted for over 10% of total sales, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year. The high-end fresh milk and "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" sales also saw growth exceeding 10% [5] - The company has adopted a "fresh and sour dual strong" product development strategy, leveraging technological breakthroughs and supply chain integration to enhance market presence [5][6] Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 1.65 percentage points to 7.18%, while the gross margin increased to 30.02% [6] - The company has maintained a focus on cost control, with a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.15 percentage points to 20.82% [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 22 and 18 times [7]

Group 1 - The Chinese dairy market is in a recovery phase as of mid-2025, with major companies like Yili, Mengniu, and China Feihe leading in market capitalization [1] - Among the top five companies, four have revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Yili at 61.3 billion yuan and Mengniu at 41.6 billion yuan [2] - Most companies have experienced a decline in revenue and net profit, with China Feihe's revenue down by 9.98% and net profit down by 46.66% [3][4] Group 2 - The overall market is facing pressure, particularly in the ambient liquid milk segment, as consumer preferences shift towards fresh products [5][6] - Price competition is intensifying, with smaller regional companies capturing market share from larger brands [7][8] - Despite revenue declines in liquid milk, some brands like New Dairy have seen growth in high-end product lines, indicating a shift in consumer demand [11] Group 3 - The dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards low-temperature fresh milk, which is gaining popularity over traditional ambient milk [16][20] - Companies are diversifying their product offerings to reduce reliance on liquid milk, with Yili and Mengniu seeing a decrease in the proportion of liquid milk revenue [14][15] - The infant formula segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with Yili and Feihe both claiming the top market share, although their statistics differ [23][24] Group 4 - Government policies, such as child-rearing subsidies, are stimulating demand for infant formula, contributing to revenue growth for several companies [27][28] - High-end infant formula products are gaining traction, with parents willing to spend more on quality, driving market prices upward [30] - Companies are increasingly focusing on B2B markets, with significant growth potential in sectors like food service and coffee [31][32] Group 5 - Major dairy companies are forming strategic partnerships with coffee and tea brands to enhance product sales, indicating a shift towards B2B collaborations [37][40] - The B2B market for dairy products, particularly high-end cream and cheese, is becoming a new growth engine for the industry [40]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy achieved significant growth in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong market position and effective strategy [1] Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 5.526 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 411 million, representing year-on-year increases of 3.01%, 33.76%, and 31.17% respectively [1] - The profit growth surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's operational efficiency and market demand [1] Product and Market Strategy - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [1] - High-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" both achieved double-digit growth, while the "Active Moist" series capitalized on consumer trends such as quality-price ratio, meal replacement, and zero sugar, achieving over 40% growth [1] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-year dividend payout ratio of 15%, an increase of approximately 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a commitment to returning value to investors [1] Strategic Focus - The company positions low-temperature products as its strategic core and identifies DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate growth through product innovation and targeted promotions [1] - This strategy is expected to drive overall revenue growth and enhance profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy achieved a slight revenue increase in the first half of 2025 after a decline in the previous year, driven by cost management and regional market focus, with revenue reaching approximately 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, and a net profit of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1][5][7] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 5.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01% [1] - Net profit reached 397 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 33.76% [1] - Management expenses decreased by 25.88% to 178 million yuan, and financial expenses fell by 25.37% to approximately 39.88 million yuan, collectively saving over 75 million yuan [5] Product Performance - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total sales, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10%, surpassing overall revenue growth [4] - High-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" both achieved double-digit growth, while the "Active Moist" series saw over 40% growth due to consumer trends favoring quality and zero sugar [4] Marketing and Digital Transformation - The company increased its advertising expenditure by 25.17% during the reporting period, focusing on high-profile marketing campaigns that connect traditional crafts with modern products [4] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue showed good growth, with e-commerce maintaining double-digit growth and improved profitability [5] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with the core Southwest and East China markets growing approximately 5.09% and 6.79%, respectively, outpacing overall company growth [6] - Conversely, the North and Northwest markets experienced declines of approximately 15.81% and 1.86%, respectively, impacting overall performance [6] - The number of distributors decreased by 472, reflecting a shift towards new retail and digital transformation strategies [6] Industry Context - The overall liquid milk market showed slight declines, but low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt remained relatively stable, indicating a trend towards low-temperature products [7] - Analysts suggest that New Dairy's low-temperature strategy has been effective over the past three years, positioning it well for future growth [7]

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1] - The company maintained a sales net profit margin of 7.40%, an increase of over 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, and reduced its asset-liability ratio to 62.53%, down 2.08 percentage points from the beginning of the period [1] - The company’s commitment to its "fresh" core value and strategic iteration in response to market trends has driven stable growth, focusing on a three-pronged product strategy of "fresh sour drinks" [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New Dairy's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.17% [1] - The total amount of interim and annual dividends for 2024 increased by 90% compared to the previous year [1] Product and Brand Strategy - New Dairy has multiple star brands such as "Asahi Weipin," "Xichang Sanmu," "Today's Fresh Milk Shop," "Huirun," and "Chuxin," which leverage their unique product and brand characteristics to enhance marketing innovation and user engagement [2] - The company is positioned as a "technology nutrition food enterprise," focusing on a three-part R&D system that includes a research institute, a global research network, and a technology transfer platform [2] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - 2025 is a pivotal year for New Dairy as it implements its new five-year strategic plan, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" and the "fresh" value it offers to consumers [2] - The company recognizes the importance of safety, nutrition, taste, and emotional value to consumers, aiming to strengthen its core competitiveness through product innovation, technological advancements, and operational capabilities [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin in Q2 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency and cost management [3] - The company is committed to its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on product and channel development to drive growth in the competitive dairy industry [4] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 411 million yuan, reflecting increases of 33.76% and 31.17% year-on-year respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.02%, and for Q2 2025 it was 30.49%, showing year-on-year increases of 0.79 and 1.40 percentage points respectively [3] Business Model Analysis - In H1 2025, the company’s direct sales and distribution revenues were 3.387 billion yuan and 1.726 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.96% and a decline of 18.75% respectively [1] - The company’s liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generated revenues of 5.067 billion yuan, 46 million yuan, and 413 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.60%, 32.29%, and a decline of 14.99% respectively [2] Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the company’s revenue from different regions was as follows: Southwest 1.970 billion yuan, East China 1.605 billion yuan, North China 451 million yuan, Northwest 667 million yuan, and others 832 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.09%, 6.79%, -15.81%, -1.86%, and 7.92% respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the development of low-temperature products, which saw double-digit growth in H1 2025, particularly in high-end fresh milk and the "Today Fresh Milk" brand [4] - The company is enhancing its brand exposure through increased advertising spending, which rose by 25.17% year-on-year, while also achieving significant reductions in labor and management costs [3] Investor Returns - The company has prioritized investor returns, with a 90% increase in the total amount of mid-year and annual dividends for 2024 compared to the previous year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on continuous innovation and product iteration to drive long-term growth, leveraging new product launches and management capabilities to enhance performance [3]. Group 1: New Product Development - The company has a strong ability to launch new products, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth. New products are a core performance indicator, with a target of over 10% of total revenue coming from new launches [3]. - The innovation mechanism combines top-down and bottom-up approaches, allowing subsidiaries to propose new products based on local market conditions. Successful pilot products can be rolled out nationally [3]. - Recent product launches, such as the new guava yogurt, have shown strong sales performance, indicating effective market penetration [3]. Group 2: Profitability Enhancement - The market recognizes the company's "fresh" strategy and management capabilities, but there are differing views on the path to improving net profit margins. Some believe that margin improvement relies more on raw milk cost benefits rather than product structure optimization [4]. - On the supply side, the reduction in dairy cattle is stable, with no signs of acceleration. The demand side shows relatively weak consumption, with stable sales during holidays but pressure on daily sales [4]. - As of June 19, 2025, raw milk prices have decreased to 3.04 yuan per kilogram, and the timeline for achieving supply-demand balance has been pushed back compared to previous expectations [4]. - The company's milk source structure is flexible, with self-owned, joint-venture, and cooperative farms contributing 30%, 30%, and 40% of production, respectively, allowing for profit enhancement through cost benefits [4]. - The core business focuses on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with revenue growth in low-temperature categories outpacing that of ambient products. The gross margins for low-temperature products are significantly higher than for ambient products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability [1][2] - New product iterations and management empowerment are anticipated to drive long-term growth, with new products contributing over 10% to overall revenue [1] - The company’s flexible milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 40% from social farms, allows for profit enhancement under cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2023 is 10,987 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.80%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 12,416 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.09% [3][9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is estimated at 431 million yuan, growing to 931 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.30% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11] Cost Structure and Product Mix - The company’s cost structure is expected to benefit from a reduction in raw milk prices, which have decreased to 3.04 yuan per kilogram as of June 2025 [2] - The product mix is shifting towards low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have higher gross margins compared to room-temperature products (40%+ for low-temperature fresh milk vs. 20%+ for room-temperature) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 38 to 17 over the same period [3][12] - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) improvement from 16.85% in 2023 to 20.23% in 2027, indicating enhanced shareholder value [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy is focusing on a "fresh strategy" to drive growth and innovation in the dairy industry, emphasizing high-end products, market penetration, and user engagement [2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The company aims to innovate through a dual-engine approach involving product and channel development, targeting high-end and deep market segments [2][4]. - New Hope Dairy's "fresh strategy" includes a comprehensive framework of "eight fresh" dimensions, covering fresh sourcing, production, orders, delivery, and consumer engagement [4]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Norwegian Gene Cow Breeding Association to enhance its product offerings with Norwegian Red Cow milk [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, New Hope Dairy's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 24.8%, with a net profit margin of 5.15% [3]. - The company's high-end fresh milk business has seen double-digit growth, with the "24-hour" mid-to-high-end product series revenue increasing by over 15% [3]. Group 3: Market Expansion - New Hope Dairy is pursuing a three-pronged growth strategy, which includes high-end national development, localized market penetration through the "Cool Mountain Snow" brand, and international expansion [6][7]. - The "Cool Mountain Snow" brand has achieved a 75% market share in its local area, demonstrating effective market penetration strategies [6]. Group 4: Innovation and Sustainability - The company is committed to technological and channel innovation to ensure freshness and break through homogenized competition [4][7]. - New Hope Dairy emphasizes the importance of environmental friendliness and health in its product offerings, aiming to create a sustainable and enjoyable lifestyle for consumers [7].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy is focusing on innovation and consumer demand for fresh and diverse dairy products to navigate the challenges of a slowing market and declining consumption [1][2] Industry Overview - The domestic dairy industry is characterized by intense competition with a trend towards increased concentration among leading companies [2] - In 2024, China's total dairy production is projected to decline to 29.62 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, with liquid milk production experiencing its first drop in five years [2] - Per capita dairy consumption is expected to decrease by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards value and quality [2] Company Strategy - New Hope Dairy is committed to a "fresh strategy" that emphasizes product innovation across various categories, including fresh milk and beverages [3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through the integration of AI and synthetic biology in its production processes [3] - New Hope Dairy's revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.665 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to rise by 24.8% to 538 million yuan [3] Growth Drivers - The company identifies three key growth drivers: high-end product development, deepening market penetration, and international expansion [4][5] - The "24-hour" fresh milk series and local market strategies are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with high-end products seeing over 15% year-on-year revenue increase [5] - New Hope Dairy is also focusing on innovative distribution channels, including partnerships with major retailers and the establishment of fresh milk stores [5] Strategic Partnerships - New Hope Dairy has formed a strategic partnership with the Norwegian Gene Cow Breeding Association to introduce and cultivate Norwegian Red Cattle, enhancing its product offerings [6] - The company has already launched its first Norwegian Red Milk product, which has received positive market feedback [6]