新乳业 20260205 新乳业如何通过优化产品结构提升净利润？ 新乳业通过持续推出新品来优化产品结构，从而提升净利润。近年来，新品收 入占比持续超过双位数，有效推动了整体产品结构优化。此外，公司并购的区 域子公司中仍有很多低端产品，通过将这些极低端或低端产品升级为中端或中 高端，可以进一步优化整体结构。同时，新品通常具有较高利润率，因此这种 系统化的创新研发能力将继续贡献较高比例的新产品销售，从而推动净利润提 升。 D to C 渠道对新乳业的发展有何影响？ 新乳业预计未来几年保持中等中高个位数的增长，受益于市场扩张、产 品创新和渠道优化。 公司积极拓展市场，计划在 2023-2027 年间开拓华北和华南市场，这 些区域市场潜力巨大。 新乳业重视产品创新，要求每个子公司每个考核期推出 10%以上的新产 品，以保持市场竞争力。 D to C 渠道（电商和社区奶站）直接触达消费者，降低费用率，提高利 润率，并保证收入增速。 公司计划打造 5 款全国化大单品，包括招牌饮品、活润 24 小时、初心 和今日鲜奶铺，部分产品已表现出色，力争 2026 年实现双位数增长。 通过持续推出新品和优化产品结构，新乳业旨在提升净 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 饮料乳品 新乳业(002946) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 产品竞争力突出，低温龙头势能延续，打开中期利润空间 ——新乳业推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑 低温奶龙头，净利率提升幅度和时间跨度有望超预期，打开中期利润空间。 ❑ 超预期点及驱动因素 市场认为：公司近年来净利率弹性多源于原奶成本红利，因此原奶若企稳回升， 公司的净利率会承压。 我们认为：未来三年公司净利率弹性可期。 驱动因素如下： 1、产品结构优化：一方面，公司产品力α突出，近年来公司新品收入贡献持续 超过双位数，有利推动产品结构优化。朝日唯品、活润、24 小时、初心、今日 鲜奶铺五款全国化低温大单品近年来均有亮眼表现，其中：（1）我们预计活润 25 年或实现高速增长，更是有望在低温酸这个竞争激烈的赛道成为现象级十亿 级大单品，26 年继续在功能化方向上推新发力；（2）朝日唯品在山姆持续推出 芭乐风味发酵乳、焦糖布丁、玫瑰红曲酒酿酪乳等火爆单品。我们认为，"爆品 制造机"背后是公司产品创新研发能力的系统化打造和持续兑现。另一方面，前 期并购的区域子公司中，仍有很多低端产品有结构优化空间。 2、D ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the low-temperature milk segment, with expected improvements in net profit margins that may exceed market expectations, thereby opening up mid-term profit potential [1] - The market perceives that the company's recent net profit margin elasticity is largely due to the cost benefits from raw milk, suggesting that any stabilization or increase in raw milk prices could pressure margins. However, the report anticipates that net profit margin elasticity will remain promising over the next three years [2] Summary by Sections Product Competitiveness and Growth Drivers - The company has optimized its product structure, with significant contributions from new products, which have consistently exceeded double-digit revenue growth. Key products include "Huirun," "Asahi Weipin," and others, with expectations for "Huirun" to achieve rapid growth and become a major product in the competitive low-temperature yogurt market [2] - The direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel is being prioritized, allowing the company to reach consumers effectively through e-commerce in high-tier cities and home delivery in lower-tier cities, leading to lower costs and higher profit margins [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 112.7 billion, 121.9 billion, and 131.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.7%, 8.1%, and 7.8% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 7.1 billion, 8.6 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.0%, 21.5%, and 18.9% respectively [4] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x for 2027, reflecting an upward adjustment in the investment rating [4]

Summary of New Dairy Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Industry**: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The fourth quarter showed stable operations, consistent with the trends of the previous three quarters, and was not significantly affected by the Spring Festival [2][3] - The company is focusing on improving profitability through product structure adjustments, low-temperature growth, new channel expansion, and new product enhancements, with a positive growth target set for 2026 [2][7] Product Development and Innovation - The new product, Rose Yogurt, was launched at the end of December and is expected to fill a market gap and contribute positively [2][13] - The company has a close partnership with Sam's Club, anticipating total sales in this channel to exceed 400 million yuan this year [2][14] - New product contribution is expected to exceed 10% by 2025, with plans for more innovative products in 2026 [2][16] Market Strategy - The company is transitioning from a regional to a national presence, primarily focusing on low-temperature products, and aims to expand quality products to regions not fully covered by subsidiaries [6][23] - The direct-to-consumer (DTOC) channel, which includes home delivery of milk, constitutes about 15% of the overall business and is seen as stable and profitable [2][19] Pricing and Supply Chain - The company maintains a cautious outlook on milk prices for 2025 due to an oversupply and lack of significant demand improvement, expecting price recovery to be observed in the second half of 2025 [6][30] - The company aims to stabilize its pricing strategy and reduce participation in price wars to maintain product price stability [22] Competitive Landscape - The industry remains competitive, with both ambient and low-temperature products facing challenges. The company plans to continue launching new products and has seen positive results [22] - The company is focusing on enhancing profitability in the East China region through collaborations with emerging channels like Sam's Club and Vipshop [27][28] Future Outlook - The company is considering external expansion opportunities in differentiated fields, deep processing, and overseas markets, although specific implementation plans are not yet determined [2][11] - The company emphasizes the importance of digital empowerment to enhance the vitality of the DTOC channel and drive overall growth [20][21] Additional Insights - The company is actively exploring new channels and platforms for national expansion, including partnerships with special chain channels [25] - The operational model for home delivery channels is primarily through direct-operated milk stations, with a focus on enhancing market share and profitability through differentiated services [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, market dynamics, and future growth plans.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the collaboration between New Hope Dairy and swimming champion Tang Qianting, emphasizing the integration of sports spirit with the brand's fresh nutrition philosophy [2][3][14] - Tang Qianting, a prominent figure in Chinese swimming, has achieved significant milestones, including winning a silver medal at the Paris Olympics and breaking 21 Asian records, which aligns with New Hope Dairy's commitment to excellence and innovation in the dairy industry [3][14] - New Hope Dairy's "fresh" strategy focuses on product quality and innovation, aiming to meet the evolving health and nutrition needs of consumers, thereby enhancing the overall value of the company [3][10][13] Group 2 - The company has launched a "New Five-Year Strategic Plan" in 2023, which emphasizes core business development, research innovation, and regional market penetration to strengthen its fresh product capabilities [3][10] - New Hope Dairy is recognized for its commitment to high-quality dairy products, with initiatives such as the "Quality Milk Project" and the establishment of a digital food safety management platform to ensure transparency from farm to table [13][14] - The partnership with Tang Qianting is seen as a strategic move to resonate with younger consumers, leveraging her influence to enhance brand recognition and appeal among the "fresh generation" [10][14]

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.49% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 623 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 647 million yuan, up by 27.62% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - During the third quarter, the low-temperature product category maintained double-digit revenue growth, continuing the positive trend from the first half of the year [1] - The constant-temperature product category faced challenges due to industry conditions and consumer habits, impacting its growth [1] - New products launched this year accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue in the third quarter, achieving a record high [2] Regional Performance - The East China subsidiaries contributed positively to the overall performance, with several achieving leading revenue growth in the third quarter [2] - The company plans to enhance the performance of its subsidiary, Xiajin, by optimizing regional and channel structures, focusing on key areas like Shaanxi and Gansu [2] Market Outlook - The company anticipates that raw milk prices may stabilize and potentially rise if demand improves and upstream farming conditions normalize [2] - The company is committed to maintaining a good milk source structure to better manage fluctuations in raw milk prices [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its key products, such as "Huirun" and "Today's Fresh Milk Shop," in major regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Greater Bay Area [2] - Future plans include enhancing the product structure and increasing the focus on low-temperature products [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 reached 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, an increase of 31.17% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 270 million yuan, an increase of 26.85% year-on-year [2][4] - The improvement in gross margin is primarily driven by structural optimization, with the gross margin for H1 2025 increasing by 0.79 percentage points to 30.02% [6] - The company has focused on regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation strategies, achieving a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's H1 2025 total revenue was 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in profitability [2][4] - The Q2 2025 results showed continued revenue growth and significant profit increases, indicating a positive trend in financial performance [2][4] Structural Optimization - New product revenue accounted for over 10% of total sales, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year. The high-end fresh milk and "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" sales also saw growth exceeding 10% [5] - The company has adopted a "fresh and sour dual strong" product development strategy, leveraging technological breakthroughs and supply chain integration to enhance market presence [5][6] Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 1.65 percentage points to 7.18%, while the gross margin increased to 30.02% [6] - The company has maintained a focus on cost control, with a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.15 percentage points to 20.82% [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 22 and 18 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy achieved significant growth in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong market position and effective strategy [1] Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 5.526 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 411 million, representing year-on-year increases of 3.01%, 33.76%, and 31.17% respectively [1] - The profit growth surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's operational efficiency and market demand [1] Product and Market Strategy - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [1] - High-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" both achieved double-digit growth, while the "Active Moist" series capitalized on consumer trends such as quality-price ratio, meal replacement, and zero sugar, achieving over 40% growth [1] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-year dividend payout ratio of 15%, an increase of approximately 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a commitment to returning value to investors [1] Strategic Focus - The company positions low-temperature products as its strategic core and identifies DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate growth through product innovation and targeted promotions [1] - This strategy is expected to drive overall revenue growth and enhance profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 30.02%, reflecting a 0.79 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by product mix enhancement and a decrease in raw milk prices [4][6]. - The company is focusing on low-temperature products as a strategic core, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced management expenses [4][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit rising by 27.37% [5]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.067 billion yuan, 460 million yuan, and 413 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk showing a 4.60% increase year-on-year [6]. Product and Market Development - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [7]. - The company launched innovative products such as yogurt and caramel milk pudding, which quickly gained consumer acceptance, contributing to revenue growth [7]. - E-commerce channel revenue reached 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, driven by the company's active engagement with platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.271 billion yuan, 12.030 billion yuan, and 13.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.68%, 6.74%, and 8.53% [10][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.16%, 21.51%, and 19.66% respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 263 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% year-on-year. The profit exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6][9] - The company is focusing on core categories and channels, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while also enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels. The company has significantly increased its mid-term dividend, distributing 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.25 million yuan, which represents 15% of H1 profits, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the liquid milk segment generated revenue of 5.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The low-temperature product category saw sales growth exceeding 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth. The "Active Moist" series experienced over 40% growth, and new products maintained a double-digit share [7][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the growth of high-margin low-temperature products and internal structural optimization. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 9.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company expects stable raw milk prices and a reduction in competitive pricing pressures, which may support further gross margin improvements in the second half of the year. Overall, the company anticipates a continued enhancement in profitability metrics [8][9] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 11.197 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 717 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.83 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.7 times [10][12]