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新乳业(002946):2025年中报点评:结构优化驱动量、利双改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-07 13:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 reached 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, an increase of 31.17% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 270 million yuan, an increase of 26.85% year-on-year [2][4] - The improvement in gross margin is primarily driven by structural optimization, with the gross margin for H1 2025 increasing by 0.79 percentage points to 30.02% [6] - The company has focused on regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation strategies, achieving a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's H1 2025 total revenue was 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in profitability [2][4] - The Q2 2025 results showed continued revenue growth and significant profit increases, indicating a positive trend in financial performance [2][4] Structural Optimization - New product revenue accounted for over 10% of total sales, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year. The high-end fresh milk and "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" sales also saw growth exceeding 10% [5] - The company has adopted a "fresh and sour dual strong" product development strategy, leveraging technological breakthroughs and supply chain integration to enhance market presence [5][6] Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 1.65 percentage points to 7.18%, while the gross margin increased to 30.02% [6] - The company has maintained a focus on cost control, with a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.15 percentage points to 20.82% [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 22 and 18 times [7]
研报掘金丨中邮证券:新乳业利润再超预期,维持“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-01 09:12
Core Viewpoint - New Dairy achieved significant growth in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong market position and effective strategy [1] Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 5.526 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 411 million, representing year-on-year increases of 3.01%, 33.76%, and 31.17% respectively [1] - The profit growth surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's operational efficiency and market demand [1] Product and Market Strategy - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [1] - High-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" both achieved double-digit growth, while the "Active Moist" series capitalized on consumer trends such as quality-price ratio, meal replacement, and zero sugar, achieving over 40% growth [1] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-year dividend payout ratio of 15%, an increase of approximately 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a commitment to returning value to investors [1] Strategic Focus - The company positions low-temperature products as its strategic core and identifies DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate growth through product innovation and targeted promotions [1] - This strategy is expected to drive overall revenue growth and enhance profitability [1]
新乳业(002946):收入环比加速,利润再超预期
China Post Securities· 2025-09-01 02:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 30.02%, reflecting a 0.79 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by product mix enhancement and a decrease in raw milk prices [4][6]. - The company is focusing on low-temperature products as a strategic core, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced management expenses [4][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit rising by 27.37% [5]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.067 billion yuan, 460 million yuan, and 413 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk showing a 4.60% increase year-on-year [6]. Product and Market Development - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [7]. - The company launched innovative products such as yogurt and caramel milk pudding, which quickly gained consumer acceptance, contributing to revenue growth [7]. - E-commerce channel revenue reached 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, driven by the company's active engagement with platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.271 billion yuan, 12.030 billion yuan, and 13.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.68%, 6.74%, and 8.53% [10][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.16%, 21.51%, and 19.66% respectively [10][12].
新乳业(002946):公司信息更新报告:2025Q2利润超预期,产品结构持续优化
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-31 04:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 263 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% year-on-year. The profit exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6][9] - The company is focusing on core categories and channels, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while also enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels. The company has significantly increased its mid-term dividend, distributing 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.25 million yuan, which represents 15% of H1 profits, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the liquid milk segment generated revenue of 5.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The low-temperature product category saw sales growth exceeding 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth. The "Active Moist" series experienced over 40% growth, and new products maintained a double-digit share [7][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the growth of high-margin low-temperature products and internal structural optimization. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 9.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company expects stable raw milk prices and a reduction in competitive pricing pressures, which may support further gross margin improvements in the second half of the year. Overall, the company anticipates a continued enhancement in profitability metrics [8][9] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 11.197 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 717 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.83 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.7 times [10][12]
新乳业(002946):25Q2收入环比加速 结构持续优化推升盈利能力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 00:47
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit margin and a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend payouts [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.53 billion yuan (+3.0%) and a net profit of 400 million yuan (+33.8%), with a non-recurring net profit of 410 million yuan (+31.2%) [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 2.90 billion yuan (+5.5%), with a net profit of 260 million yuan (+27.4%) and a non-recurring net profit of 270 million yuan (+26.8%) [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.07 billion yuan, 50 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +4.6%, +32.3%, and -15.0% [2]. - The company’s low-temperature product category saw over 10% year-on-year growth, driven by high-end fresh milk and innovative products that cater to current consumer trends [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region for the first half of 2025 was as follows: Southwest 1.97 billion yuan (+5.1%), East China 1.61 billion yuan (+6.8%), North China 450 million yuan (-15.8%), Northwest 670 million yuan (-1.9%), and other regions 830 million yuan (+7.9%) [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.0% (+0.8 percentage points), and the net margin was 7.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross margin improved to 30.5% (+1.4 percentage points), with a net margin of 9.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. Shareholder Returns - The interim dividend payout ratio for the first half of 2025 was set at 15%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.18 billion yuan, 11.77 billion yuan, and 12.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 4.8%, 5.3%, and 5.0%, respectively [5]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 690 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.6%, 20.1%, and 15.6% [5].
低温奶超预期,新乳业低速爬坡
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-08-28 13:07
Core Viewpoint - New Dairy achieved a slight revenue increase in the first half of 2025 after a decline in the previous year, driven by cost management and regional market focus, with revenue reaching approximately 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, and a net profit of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1][5][7] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 5.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01% [1] - Net profit reached 397 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 33.76% [1] - Management expenses decreased by 25.88% to 178 million yuan, and financial expenses fell by 25.37% to approximately 39.88 million yuan, collectively saving over 75 million yuan [5] Product Performance - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total sales, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10%, surpassing overall revenue growth [4] - High-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" both achieved double-digit growth, while the "Active Moist" series saw over 40% growth due to consumer trends favoring quality and zero sugar [4] Marketing and Digital Transformation - The company increased its advertising expenditure by 25.17% during the reporting period, focusing on high-profile marketing campaigns that connect traditional crafts with modern products [4] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue showed good growth, with e-commerce maintaining double-digit growth and improved profitability [5] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with the core Southwest and East China markets growing approximately 5.09% and 6.79%, respectively, outpacing overall company growth [6] - Conversely, the North and Northwest markets experienced declines of approximately 15.81% and 1.86%, respectively, impacting overall performance [6] - The number of distributors decreased by 472, reflecting a shift towards new retail and digital transformation strategies [6] Industry Context - The overall liquid milk market showed slight declines, but low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt remained relatively stable, indicating a trend towards low-temperature products [7] - Analysts suggest that New Dairy's low-temperature strategy has been effective over the past three years, positioning it well for future growth [7]
新乳业半年报显示营收与净利润双增长
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-28 09:01
Core Insights - New Dairy achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1] - The company maintained a sales net profit margin of 7.40%, an increase of over 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, and reduced its asset-liability ratio to 62.53%, down 2.08 percentage points from the beginning of the period [1] - The company’s commitment to its "fresh" core value and strategic iteration in response to market trends has driven stable growth, focusing on a three-pronged product strategy of "fresh sour drinks" [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New Dairy's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.17% [1] - The total amount of interim and annual dividends for 2024 increased by 90% compared to the previous year [1] Product and Brand Strategy - New Dairy has multiple star brands such as "Asahi Weipin," "Xichang Sanmu," "Today's Fresh Milk Shop," "Huirun," and "Chuxin," which leverage their unique product and brand characteristics to enhance marketing innovation and user engagement [2] - The company is positioned as a "technology nutrition food enterprise," focusing on a three-part R&D system that includes a research institute, a global research network, and a technology transfer platform [2] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - 2025 is a pivotal year for New Dairy as it implements its new five-year strategic plan, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" and the "fresh" value it offers to consumers [2] - The company recognizes the importance of safety, nutrition, taste, and emotional value to consumers, aiming to strengthen its core competitiveness through product innovation, technological advancements, and operational capabilities [2]
新乳业(002946):25Q2净利率提升超预期 品类+渠道驱动“鲜活”增长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 08:43
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin in Q2 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency and cost management [3] - The company is committed to its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on product and channel development to drive growth in the competitive dairy industry [4] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 411 million yuan, reflecting increases of 33.76% and 31.17% year-on-year respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.02%, and for Q2 2025 it was 30.49%, showing year-on-year increases of 0.79 and 1.40 percentage points respectively [3] Business Model Analysis - In H1 2025, the company’s direct sales and distribution revenues were 3.387 billion yuan and 1.726 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.96% and a decline of 18.75% respectively [1] - The company’s liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generated revenues of 5.067 billion yuan, 46 million yuan, and 413 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.60%, 32.29%, and a decline of 14.99% respectively [2] Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the company’s revenue from different regions was as follows: Southwest 1.970 billion yuan, East China 1.605 billion yuan, North China 451 million yuan, Northwest 667 million yuan, and others 832 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.09%, 6.79%, -15.81%, -1.86%, and 7.92% respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the development of low-temperature products, which saw double-digit growth in H1 2025, particularly in high-end fresh milk and the "Today Fresh Milk" brand [4] - The company is enhancing its brand exposure through increased advertising spending, which rose by 25.17% year-on-year, while also achieving significant reductions in labor and management costs [3] Investor Returns - The company has prioritized investor returns, with a 90% increase in the total amount of mid-year and annual dividends for 2024 compared to the previous year [5]
新乳业(002946):2025年半年报点评:鲜立方战略坚定落地,盈利能力显著提升
Western Securities· 2025-08-28 07:56
公司点评 | 新乳业 鲜立方战略坚定落地,盈利能力显著提升 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新乳业(002946.SZ)2025 年半年报点评 事件:公司发布 25 年半年报,25H1 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分 别为 55.26 亿元/3.97 亿元/4.11 亿元,对应分别+3.0%/+33.8%/+31.2%;25Q2 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 29.0 亿元/2.6 亿元/2.7 亿元, 对应分别+5.5%/+27.4%/+26.9%。 低温战略成效显著,核心品类驱动增长。在行业需求分化的背景下,公司坚定 "鲜立方"战略,低温品类销售额同比增超 10%。其中,高端鲜奶与"今日鲜 奶铺"均实现双位数增长,"活润"系列凭借产品创新与场景拓展,实现超 40% 的高速增长。鲜立方驱动下,25H1 公司液奶收入+4.6%至 50.7 亿元,在营收占 比进一步提升至 91.7% 渠道端:DTC 模式继续引领公司增长,25H1 直销模式收入+23.0%至 33.9 亿元, 营收占比提升至 66.3%;顺应趋势推动线上线下深度融合,25H1 电商渠道收入 +15.4%至 ...
李巍走上台前,新乳业营收十年首降:高端化与下沉市场能否成为解药
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-06-11 12:52
Core Insights - New Hope Dairy is facing a critical turning point as it experiences its first revenue decline since 2015, with a 2.93% drop in 2024, totaling 10.665 billion yuan, despite a 24.8% increase in net profit to 538 million yuan [1][2] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue decline is attributed to changes in the consolidation scope compared to 2023, but it still outperformed the industry average [2] - In Q1 2024, New Hope Dairy achieved a revenue of 2.62 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 48.5% [2] Subsidiary Performance - There is a notable performance disparity among subsidiaries, with Qingdao Qinpai achieving a net profit of 73.56 million yuan in 2024, while Huanmei Dairy, the largest subsidiary by revenue, saw a 5.56% revenue decline and a 31% profit drop [2][4] - Huanmei Dairy's revenue fell to 1.8 billion yuan in 2024, down from 1.906 billion yuan in 2023, and its net profit dropped to 114 million yuan, marking a new low since its acquisition [4] Market Challenges - The dairy industry is undergoing a significant adjustment period, with intensified competition in the ambient milk market and rising costs affecting profit margins [5] - The high-end segment, particularly low-temperature milk and yogurt, is showing signs of recovery, with companies focusing on cost control to improve net profits [6] Strategic Initiatives - New Hope Dairy's chairman emphasized the need to break out of the current market competition by innovating and meeting diverse consumer demands [7] - The company is focusing on its "Today Fresh Milk Shop" brand, which has seen significant growth in sales through various marketing channels, including social media [7][8] Future Growth Plans - New Hope Dairy plans to implement a "three fresh pillars" strategy over the next five years, focusing on high-end products, local market penetration, and international expansion [8][9] - The company aims to double its net profit margin from 3.98% in 2023 to 5.15% in 2024, with a long-term goal of achieving this by 2027 [10] Family Business Resilience - The involvement of family members in decision-making may provide New Hope Dairy with a competitive edge, as family businesses often exhibit strong execution and long-term vision [10]