双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） | 日期 | 10年中债 | | 10年美债 | | 美元指数 | | 人民币 | | 标普500 | 上证指数 | 中证商品 | 原油 | | 黄金 | 铜 | 集运欧线 | 螺纹 | 豆粕 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The event aims to enhance investor education and protection, particularly for small and medium investors, amidst a complex capital market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - A large-scale promotional event titled "Check-in Financial Island Investment Education 'Yu' See You" will take place in Zhengzhou, focusing on investor education and risk awareness [1][2]. - The event will feature two main lectures: one on the theme of futures serving the real economy and another on safeguarding investor rights through risk warning education [1][2]. Group 2: Interactive Activities - The event will include a light show at landmark buildings in Zhengzhou, artistic performances, and financial knowledge quizzes, with over 30 financial institutions setting up booths for direct interaction with investors [2]. - The innovative, interactive format aims to widely disseminate knowledge about financial investments, helping investors understand the characteristics and risks of various investment products [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Educational Efforts - The Henan Securities Regulatory Bureau has been actively working on investor protection, integrating investor education into the national education system, and promoting a series of brand activities that combine investment education with cultural tourism [3]. - The regulatory body emphasizes the importance of building a fair and transparent investment environment, enhancing investors' self-protection capabilities, and fostering a stable financial market [3].

证监会：现公布《证券期货业统计指标标准指引（2025年修订）》，自2026年1月1日起施行。 ...

中国证券监督管理委员会公告 〔2025〕9号 现公布《证券期货业统计指标标准指引（2025年修订）》，自2026年1月1日起施 行。 中国证监会 2025年4月23日 【第9号公告】《证券期货业统计指标标准指引（2025年修订）》 全文可点击 "阅读原文" 。 ...

Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2645.5122, 3775.0767, and 5903.3812 respectively, with changes of -0.22%, -0.17%, and 0.45% [4]. - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 28.04 billion, 111.51 billion, and 186.02 billion respectively, and the trading turnovers were 538.94 billion yuan, 1974.63 billion yuan, and 2194.12 billion yuan respectively [4]. - In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.05% at 3286.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.05%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.13%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.1%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.01%. The A - share trading volume was 1.04 trillion yuan, compared with 1.08 trillion yuan the previous day [8][11]. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 0.74 million contracts, put options was 0.62 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.83. The open interest was 6.05 million contracts, with call option open interest of 3.68 million contracts, put option open interest of 2.37 million contracts, and a PCR of 0.64 [4]. - For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 2.18 million contracts, put options was 1.52 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.69. The open interest was 17.52 million contracts, with call option open interest of 10.30 million contracts, put option open interest of 7.22 million contracts, and a PCR of 0.70 [4]. - For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 6.99 million contracts, put options was 6.38 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.91. The open interest was 23.31 million contracts, with call option open interest of 13.28 million contracts, put option open interest of 10.03 million contracts, and a PCR of 0.75 [4]. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility chains, including maximum, minimum, and various percentile values, as well as current values for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000. It also shows next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curves for these indices [8][10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that in March 2025, the number of private asset management products registered by securities and futures institutions reached 1,463, representing a year-on-year increase of 94.03% and a month-on-month increase of 76.69% [1] - The total establishment scale of these products was 68.82 billion yuan, which is a month-on-month increase of 50.51% and a year-on-year increase of 28.82% [1] - As of the end of March 2025, the total scale of private asset management products by securities and futures institutions amounted to 11.84 trillion yuan, showing a decrease of 338.15 billion yuan from the previous month, which is a month-on-month decline of 2.77% [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a total operating revenue of 11.288 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - The total profit reached 2.880 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.574 billion yuan, up 15.39% year-on-year, indicating continuous optimization of profitability [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 2.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.65% [1] - The total profit for Q1 2025 was 1.060 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 44.33% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 604 million yuan, up 45.22% year-on-year, marking a strong start to the year [1] Business Segments - The trust business generated total revenue of 2.99 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.29%, with net profit reaching 1.776 billion yuan, up 10.63% [2] - The total assets of the trust business grew to 1.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.8% [2] - The securities and futures business reported total revenue of 860 million yuan, a decline of 25.64%, while net profit increased by 64.43% to 176 million yuan [2] - The carbon asset business achieved operating revenue of 70.016 million yuan, growing 13.39% year-on-year, with net profit of 1.0405 million yuan, up 14.51% [2] - The electric equipment business realized operating revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%, with net profit of 149 million yuan, up 45.18% [2] Strategic Developments - The company made significant progress in green finance, with a "carbon assessment + finance" service model that helped energy and power enterprises secure green financing, nearly doubling in scale year-on-year [3] - New financial products such as "Electric Carbon Benefit Loan" and "Green Electricity Loan" were launched to meet diverse customer needs and enhance market competitiveness [3] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.733 billion, 1.845 billion, and 1.996 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.32, and 0.34 [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.36, 15.37, and 14.40 times respectively, indicating a favorable investment outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the A - share market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with daily trading volume remaining above one trillion. For index options, the overall strategy is to focus on defense or go long on volatility. Specifically, for index options, the trend strategy is to focus on defense, and the volatility strategy is to buy wide - straddle options after the decline in volatility to go long on volatility. For example, for the CSI 300 index, the weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red. For the CSI 1000 index, the daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. For the SSE 50 index, it remained above the 850 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - Index performance: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range oscillation. The weekly K - line showed three consecutive positives, but the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [10][12] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 300 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options both at 3800, and the option pain point was also 3800. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IF futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of IO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [14][17][20] 3.2 CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - Index performance: The CSI 1000 index's daily line first rose and then declined, and the weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average. The Wednesday color K - line indicator remained green, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [38][41] - Option data: The 2505 contract of CSI 1000 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 6000 and 5800 respectively, and the option pain point was 5900. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased. The current - month IM futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of MO options decreased, and the open interest increased. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the open - interest PCR increased [43][46][49] 3.3 SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - Index performance: The SSE 50 index remained above the 850 - day moving average. The weekly K - line closed in the negative, and the Wednesday color K - line indicator remained gray, while the daily three - color K - line indicator remained red [67][69] - Option data: The 2505 contract of SSE 50 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options at 2750 and 2650 respectively, and the option pain point was 2650. The implied volatility increased. The current - month IH futures contract was at a discount to the underlying, and the spot - futures basis narrowed, while the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract widened. The trading volume of HO options increased, and the open interest increased. Both the trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of options increased [71][73][77]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...

经济衰退担忧持续影响美股 美国关税政策的僵局正在对其经济造成损害并打击投资者的信心。多项经济指标表明，关税政策有可能将美国乃 至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘。而反复无常的关税政策，不仅没有实现特朗普政府缩减贸易逆差和促使制造业 回流的目标，反而使美国承受通胀攀升和经济下行的压力。 在美国经济增长动能放缓以及政策不确定性增加等因素的拖累下，美股于2月中旬开始见顶回落，直至3月中下旬 才出现一波反弹。到了4月，特朗普政府对非美国家宣布加征关税，给金融市场带来新一轮的冲击，阻断了美股的 反弹之路，使得避险情绪大增，美国金融市场出现历史上较为少见的"股债汇三杀"风险。 近期，不走寻常路的特朗普对美联储的货币政策表示了不满，使得美联储的独立性遭受考验，这意味着政策的不 确定性与经济下行形成了共振，美股短期或出现超跌反弹的情况。但从中期来看，美股跌势可能尚未结束，需要 等到美联储重新启动降息以及关税谈判取得进展才能有所改变。 | 0.30 0.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...