Group 1: Economic Growth of the Service Sector - The service sector maintained a rapid growth rate, with a value added of 39,031.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - The contribution rate of the service sector to national economic growth was 60.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - In the second quarter, the service sector's value added accelerated to 195,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [2] Group 2: High-Quality Development and New Momentum - Modern service industries, such as information technology and business services, showed strong growth, with value added increasing by 11.1% and 9.6% respectively in the first half of the year [3] - The combined value added of these sectors contributed 1.7 percentage points to the overall growth of the service sector [3] - High-tech service industries saw significant investment growth, with fixed asset investment in high-tech services increasing by 8.6% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption showed steady improvement, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [5] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in new business models such as instant retail and live e-commerce [5] - Cultural and tourism services also experienced significant growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 31.9% and 7.4% respectively [5] Group 4: International Trade and Investment in Services - The total import and export value of service trade reached 32,543.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The actual use of foreign capital in the service sector was 259.64 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of total foreign capital utilization [6] - The e-commerce service industry saw a remarkable increase in foreign investment, growing by 146% year-on-year [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The business activity index for the service sector remained above the critical point, averaging 50.2, indicating expansion [8] - The business activity expectation index averaged 56.7, reflecting a positive market sentiment [8] - The service sector is expected to continue its upward trend, but external uncertainties remain, necessitating further policy support to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance service quality [8]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

6月24日，中国电科与中国邮政签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在科技创新、信息技术赋能、邮 寄业务、金融业务等领域开展全面合作。(人民财讯) ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is preparing for a critical vote on the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, aiming for completion by early next week to meet the July 4 signing goal [1] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party pose challenges to the bill's passage, with key figures expressing concerns over the timeline and policy details [2] - The SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction cap has become a significant point of contention, with the Senate version maintaining a $10,000 cap while the House version proposes raising it to $40,000 [3] Group 2 - The Democratic Party has been excluded from the tax reform negotiations but has successfully challenged and removed several provisions from the bill, including those unrelated to tax, spending, or budget [4] - Democrats are currently working to remove the "capital tax" provision, which has raised concerns about capital flight from the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Senate Republicans are unable to force the U.S. Postal Service to eliminate electric vehicles and charging equipment from tax and budget proposals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The United States Postal Service (USPS) has temporarily suspended the acceptance of international mail destined for Israel due to insufficient transportation options or service disruptions [1] Group 1 - The USPS has issued a notice advising customers not to send items to Israel until further notice [1]

Core Point - Hongkong Post has announced an immediate suspension of all postal services to Israel due to local events, effective until further notice [1] Group 1 - The suspension of postal services is a direct response to ongoing local events impacting operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability, with positive growth in industrial production, service sectors, and fixed asset investments, supported by proactive macro policies [1][6]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [2]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5, suggesting positive future expectations [3]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93% [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with home appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment saw a robust increase of 8.5% [5]. - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced significant investment growth rates of 41.4% and 24.2%, respectively [5]. Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of policy effects has led to a stable economic environment, showcasing China's economic resilience and vitality [6]. - However, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and the need to strengthen domestic demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The service industry in China is experiencing accelerated growth, with a notable increase in the modern service sector, as indicated by the production index and various sub-sector performances [1] Industry Performance - In May, the national service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a production index increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail sectors grew by 8.9% and 8.4% respectively, outperforming the overall service production index by 5.0, 2.7, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to May, the national service production index recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Revenue and Business Activity - For the first four months, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for May was at 50.2%, rising by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index stood at 56.5%, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, and internet software and IT services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]