2025 年 11 月 24 日 建筑 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 | | | 行业表现 chenyf4@essence.com.cn 低估值基建央企具备稳健防御属性，出 海/洁净室工程延续高景气度 本周投资建议： 受大盘调整影响，本周建筑板块下跌 6.11%，传统建筑央企板块下跌 3.63%。年初以来，受下游基建投资增速放缓及房地产投资持续下滑 等因素影响，传统建筑央企经营承压，年初至今股价下跌 10.70%， 目前建筑板块及传统建筑央企估值位居低位，截至目前，SW 建筑装 饰板块市盈率（TTM）为 9.0 倍，传统建筑央企板块市盈率（TTM） 为 5.4 倍。基建央企板块营收业绩成长仍承压，但关键性经营指标有 所改善，且多家企业提升分红比例，财政政策维持积极基调，化债效 果或于 2026 年逐步体现，板块整体具备稳健防御属性，建议关注 Q4 低估值传统建筑央企板块投资机会。此外，西部区域建设及洁净室板 块维持高景气，需求持续上行驱动龙头企业成长。 2023 年以来，八大建筑央企海外新签订单维持两位数快速增长，2023 年、2024 年、2025Q1-Q3 合计海外新签订单增速分别为 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Communications Construction Company reported a decrease in the number of shareholders and a decline in stock price despite significant revenue and profit growth in the third quarter [2] Shareholder and Stock Performance - As of November 20, the number of shareholders was 91,944, a decrease of 6,375 from the previous period, representing a decline of 6.48% [2] - The latest stock price is 16.33 yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.58%, but the stock has cumulatively decreased by 6.20% since the concentration of shares began, with 2 days of increase and 8 days of decrease [2] Financing and Margin Data - As of November 21, the margin trading balance was 458 million yuan, with a financing balance of 457 million yuan, showing a total decrease of 19.74 million yuan, or 4.14%, since the concentration of shares began [2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.58%, and a net profit of 449 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.73% [2] - The basic earnings per share were 0.6700 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 11.02% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit bond yields continued to fluctuate slightly at a low level, and most credit spreads in different industries reached historical lows since early 2024. The short - term urban investment bond spreads within 3 years have been compressed to the 3% quantile or lower since early 2024, while the long - term spreads over 5 years still have some room to decline. The credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ industrial bonds are currently in the range of 65 - 70BP, and the credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds are in the range of 50 - 70BP, with some potential. Considering the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months for 3 - 5Y credit bonds, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [5][57]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Credit Hot Events - **Low - price trading of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds**: Since the end of October, there have been multiple secondary transactions of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's outstanding secondary capital bond "21 Jiutai Rural Secondary" significantly below the valuation, with a transaction price of around 50 yuan. The bank has not released its 2024 annual report, 2025 quarterly reports, and its operation has been under pressure in recent years, with net profit continuously declining and a large loss in 2024, and the capital adequacy ratio approaching the warning line, which has raised market concerns about non - redemption or write - down [10]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange's written warnings to 3 bond issuers**: Zhenjiang Urban Construction Industry Group, Guangning County Huiye Asset Operation Co., Ltd., and Hongda Xingye Group Co., Ltd. were warned for issues such as non - standard management of special accounts for raised funds, non - compliance with the use of raised funds as stipulated in the prospectus, and inaccurate and untimely information disclosure [13]. - **PBC Beijing Branch's support for science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market**: On November 18, 12 departments including the PBC Beijing Branch issued an implementation plan to support eligible enterprises in service consumption fields such as culture, tourism, and education to issue bonds, encourage science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market, and support consumer finance companies, auto finance companies, and financial leasing companies to issue financial bonds [14]. 2. Primary Market 2.1 Net Financing Scale - **Overall situation**: This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds increased compared with last week, while the net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 18.4 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 5.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.11 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 13.46 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 13.58 billion yuan, an increase of 7.65 billion yuan [3][16]. - **Issuance and redemption quantity**: The issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 32, and the redemption quantity decreased by 22; the issuance quantity of industrial bonds increased by 65, and the redemption quantity increased by 19; the issuance quantity of financial bonds increased by 13, and the redemption quantity decreased by 13 [20]. 2.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased significantly this week, falling within the range of 2.6 - 2.8%. The issuance interest rates of other bonds with different ratings were in the range of 1.9 - 2.4%. Specifically, the average issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 24BP and 28BP respectively compared with last week. The average issuance interest rates of AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the average issuance interest rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 7BP. The average issuance interest rates of other credit bonds with different ratings decreased by 1 - 4BP [3][24]. 3. Secondary Market 3.1 Transaction Situation - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds increased by 34.1 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 234.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 381.1 billion yuan, an increase of 46.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 470.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.5 billion yuan; the trading volume of asset - backed securities was 18.7 billion yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. - **Turnover rate**: The turnover rates of credit bonds showed mixed trends compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.51%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.02%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.07%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.52%, unchanged from last week [26]. 3.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated slightly this week, with a fluctuation range of no more than 3BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year fluctuated by no more than 1BP; the yields of 5Y AA and AAA+ credit bonds decreased by less than 1BP, and the yield of 5Y AAA - credit bonds increased by 3BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years increased by 1BP [29]. 3.3 Credit Spreads - **Overall situation**: Except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries compared with last week, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. The credit spreads of AA+ pharmaceutical biology, textile and clothing, and food and beverage industries compressed by 4BP, 15BP, and 4BP respectively, while the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance and leisure services industries widened by 6BP [3]. - **Urban investment bonds**: The long - term credit spreads of urban investment bonds over 10 years compressed significantly this week, while the spreads of other maturities fluctuated by no more than 1BP. In terms of regions, the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Yunnan compressed by 11BP, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of urban investment bonds in other regions and ratings were within 3BP [42][44]. - **Industrial bonds**: The overall change in industrial credit spreads this week was not significant, and the change range of spreads with different maturities and ratings was within 5BP [48]. - **Bank capital bonds**: The credit spread of 5Y AA+ bank secondary capital bonds compressed by 5BP this week, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds with other maturities and ratings were within 2BP [51]. 4. This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - There were 7 bond implicit ratings downgraded for 5 issuers this week. China Yintai Investment Co., Ltd. had 3 bond implicit ratings downgraded, and the other issuers included China Water Resources and Hydropower First Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd., PowerChina Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Liaoning Kangping County Zhonghe Rural Credit Micro - loan Co., Ltd., and Jilin Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. [4][54]. 5. Investment Recommendations - This week, the central bank achieved a net investment of 434 billion yuan through open - market operations. As of Friday's close, DR001 closed at 1.30%, down from 1.5% at the beginning of the week. Overall, except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. Considering the current situation of credit spreads and the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [56][57].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate industry and its related sectors, including construction materials and banking. Key Points on Real Estate Industry - The real estate price decline cycle is categorized into small, medium, and large bubbles, each with different declines and durations [1] - Core city housing prices are under pressure due to pessimistic income or inflation expectations, as well as inverted rent-to-sale ratios and interest rates [1][4] - Valuation indicators like rent-to-sale ratios and price-to-income ratios are useful for identifying price turning points but typically lag behind actual price changes [2] - Loan interest subsidy policies can significantly impact the real estate market, with the coverage scope and duration being critical factors [5] - Improving income expectations is more crucial than the interest rates themselves for enhancing housing attractiveness [5] Challenges Facing the Real Estate Sector - The real estate industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including weakened transaction volumes, pressure from old and new inventory, and low income expectations [6] - New and second-hand housing transactions have declined, affecting related sectors like construction materials [6] - Quality leading companies are showing strong risk resistance and growth potential by increasing market share and optimizing their structures [6] Insights on Construction Materials Industry - Despite the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, some leading companies in the construction materials sector are showing signs of operational turning points [7] - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Materials are expected to achieve year-on-year growth even if the real estate market continues to decline [7] - The waterproofing industry leaders are experiencing strong growth momentum, with market share increasing from 28% to 30-35% [7] Investment Opportunities in the Construction Sector - The construction industry is poised for new investment opportunities as the real estate market stabilizes and policy expectations strengthen [8] - Key players in the construction sector, such as China State Construction and China Railway Construction, are highlighted as significant investment targets [9] Banking Sector Insights - Banks are facing significant interest margin pressure, with asset yields continuing to decline [14] - Future policies may focus on alleviating pressure on banks and residents through loan interest subsidies [15] - The overall valuation of bank stocks is expected to recover, with attractive dividend yields [16] Home Furnishing Industry Analysis - The home furnishing industry shows strong investment value, particularly among leading companies with good cash flow [10] - Companies like Oppein and Gujia are expected to perform well, providing a safety net for investors [10][11] - The soft furniture segment is outperforming the custom furniture segment, benefiting from increased market share in the second-hand housing market [10] Conclusion - The real estate sector is currently under pressure but presents potential investment opportunities in leading companies within the construction materials and home furnishing industries. The banking sector is also expected to recover, providing attractive investment options.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with cumulative sales and amounts from January to October down 7% and 10% year-on-year respectively [1][2] - New construction and land acquisition areas have dropped approximately 70% from peak levels, with housing prices down over 35% [1][2] - The market is in a rapid bottom-seeking phase, particularly in core cities where price adjustments have significant impacts on residents' asset values [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Core city housing prices are unlikely to continue their rapid decline; the current situation is seen as an emotional clearance phase [3] - Policy measures are expected to increase in response to weakening housing prices, including potential new personal housing loan interest subsidies and adjustments to transaction taxes [1][3] - The building materials industry should focus on supportive policies, with leading companies likely to recover before the industry as a whole [1][5] Company-Specific Insights Sanhe Tree (三棵树) - Achieved relatively good performance in 2025, but its growth structure has not reached optimal status, relying on two beta strategies and one alpha strategy [6] - The "immediate residence" business and the art paint market are key growth drivers, but the rural revitalization project has not fully realized its potential [6] Rabbit Baby (兔宝宝) - Performed well in 2025, driven by strategic changes and industry trends, particularly through particle board business expansion [7] - Future performance may depend on the stability of the real estate market [7] Challenges in the Building Materials Sector - The consumer building materials industry faces challenges from fluctuations in the real estate market, which is a significant demand driver [8] - A potential second downturn in the real estate market could have a disruptive impact on company performance [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and others, which have advantages in market concentration [10] - In the construction industry, state-owned enterprises and companies related to the real estate chain, such as China State Construction, are expected to benefit from real estate stimulus policies [11] Future Outlook - The building materials sector is anticipated to see a positive shift as supportive policies are implemented, potentially leading to a market recovery [5] - The overall market environment remains challenging, but leading companies are expected to outperform the industry average [1][4] Additional Considerations - The investment strategy for the home appliance industry should adjust to include companies related to the real estate chain, as demand for kitchen appliances is significantly driven by new housing completions [15][16] - Opportunities exist in sectors like smart projectors and robotic vacuums, where market consolidation may benefit leading companies [17]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the progress and future prospects of the Hainan Free Trade Port and its collaboration with Tianjin, emphasizing the institutional innovations achieved through "free trade linkage" between the two regions [2][3]. Group 1: Cooperation and Achievements - The cooperation between Tianjin and Hainan has deepened over the past year, resulting in significant achievements [2]. - A comprehensive cooperation framework agreement was signed between the first free trade pilot zone in northern China and the Hainan Free Trade Port, outlining 24 collaborative initiatives in various sectors such as marine cooperation, healthcare, and green technology [2]. - Strategic cooperation agreements have been established, including a zero-carbon international hub port initiative and a new model for cross-regional development in the national fishing port economic zone [2]. Group 2: Innovations and Regulatory Framework - Innovations in customs supervision have been made, including the signing of a memorandum for cross-border bonded display trading, marking the first such transaction in the country [3]. - The two regions are aligning their cooperation with international trade rules, such as CPTPP and DEPA, to enhance their regulatory frameworks [3]. - The construction of free trade pilot zones is a strategic initiative by the central government to promote reform and opening up, marking a milestone in China's economic development [3]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The full closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port is set to commence on December 18, 2025, which is expected to provide new opportunities for deepening the "free trade linkage" between the two regions [4]. - Tianjin aims to leverage the closure of Hainan to upgrade cooperation from framework implementation to deeper integration, fostering innovative pilot projects with high replicability [4]. - The goal is to create a high-level free trade network that integrates and serves national strategic initiatives, enhancing the competitive advantages of both regions [4].

11月21日晚间，*ST围海（002586）发布公告，公司预中标智慧农业项目，但因联合体方未按时签合同遭废标。 公告显示，*ST围海于2025年9月20日在中国招标投标公共服务平台查询获悉，确定浙江省围海建设集团股份有限公司（牵头方）、云南开发规划设计院 有限公司组成联合体为"云南省曲靖市罗平县智慧农业项目工程总承包（epc）一标段"项目的中标候选人，项目投标报价为1.41亿元。 该项目用地面积为666,674.78㎡，合计1,000.01亩，总建筑面积约42.8万㎡，主要包括设备用房、管理用房及生活配套、废料处理处置仓、冷库、打包烘干 中心、门房、污水处理单元、封闭种植棚、智慧种植仓等。 公开资料显示，浙江省围海建设集团股份有限公司成立于1984年，2011年在深交所主板上市，是国内规模较大、专业化程度较高的，城乡建设一体化综合 服务商，拥有水利、市政、建筑三项施工总承包壹级、爆破贰级等多个资质。 *ST围海此前已经连续6年出现亏损，累计亏逾23亿元。最新财务数据显示，今年前三季度公司同比扭亏，实现营收12.90亿元，同比下滑4.88%；净利润为 3752万元，同比增长145.18%。 商报君送福利 看推文 ...

Core Insights - The conference themed "Innovation in Science and Technology Leading Smart City Construction" showcased the integration of AI in urban construction, highlighting projects like the "Cloud Engineering Model" AI service platform and the "Tianchan" construction robot system as exemplary cases [1][2] Group 1: Conference Overview - The event was part of the 2025 World Cities Day series and was organized by the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Administration, attended by over 260 representatives from various sectors [1] - Keynote speeches and discussions focused on cutting-edge topics such as lifeline engineering, smart city digital twins, generative AI, and intelligent construction [1] Group 2: AI Innovations and Applications - The "Cloud Engineering Model" is recognized as China's first AI MaaS system for the construction industry, while the "Tianchan" robot system emphasizes collaborative operations among multiple robots [2] - AI technologies demonstrated significant potential in enhancing design efficiency and ensuring construction safety and quality through applications like CAD drawing intelligent analysis and autonomous driving models for shield tunneling [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Future Initiatives - Agreements were signed between the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Administration and several universities and research institutes to deepen collaboration in sustainable urban development and green low-carbon initiatives [2] - The conference also launched the second batch of the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Administration's technology innovation platform and announced key research projects for 2025 [2][3]

Group 1 - The company Huizhou Shengji Mao Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The business scope includes construction engineering contracting, supervision, surveying, and design, which require approval from relevant authorities [1] - General projects include sales of construction decoration materials, hardware products, optical glass, glass instruments, and various building materials [1]

Group 1 - The board of China Energy Construction (03996.HK) has elected Mr. Ni Zhen as the chairman, with his term starting from the date of board approval until the end of the third board term [1] - Mr. Ni Zhen will no longer serve as the general manager of the company following this appointment [1] Group 2 - Mr. Ni Zhen, born in July 1971, is a senior engineer with a doctorate in engineering [3] - He currently holds the positions of party secretary and chairman of China Energy Construction Group Co., Ltd. [3] - Mr. Ni has held various significant roles in other companies, including vice president of China Railway Construction Corporation and general manager of China Railway Real Estate Group [3]