Summary of Key Points from the Optical Module Market Demand Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the demand for optical modules, specifically 800G and 1.6T modules, from major cloud service providers and manufacturers in the optical module market. 800G Optical Module Demand - **2024-2026 Demand Forecast**: - 2024: Approximately 8 million units, with Nvidia around 3 million and Google around 2 million [1] - 2025: Demand expected between 18-21 million units, with Nvidia at over 5 million, Google at about 3.5 million, and AWS at around 3 million [1][8] - 2026: Anticipated demand of 30-32 million units, with Meta's demand expected to double to 6 million, and AWS around 5.5 million [1][11] - **Market Expectation Discrepancy**: Some forecasts suggest demand could reach 40 million units in 2026, primarily due to Microsoft's procurement through third-party vendors, complicating order visibility [1][12]. 1.6T Optical Module Demand - **2025 Demand**: Predominantly driven by Nvidia, with a demand of 2.5-3.5 million units, and Google around 200-300 thousand units [2][15] - **2026 Forecast**: Nvidia's demand expected to start at 5 million units, with overall market demand conservatively estimated at 860 thousand units [2][15]. Major Manufacturers' Capacity and Shipment - **Leading Manufacturers' Capacity**: - Xuchuang: Expected capacity of 15 million units, with a utilization rate of 80% [3] - New Yisheng: Capacity expansion to 8-9 million units [3] - Finisar: Anticipated capacity of 10-12 million units post-expansion in 2026 [3] - **Opportunities for Second-Tier Manufacturers**: A demand gap of 10-15 million units is expected, providing opportunities for companies like Huagong, Sols, and Cambridge Technology [3][19]. GPU to Optical Module Ratio - **Ratio Insights**: - Nvidia's ratio is between 1:3 to 1:4.5, while Google and AWS are around 1:4 [4][20] - Meta's ratio is projected to be between 1:12 to 1:14, with discrepancies due to production timing and order placement strategies [4][20][24]. Customer and Supplier Share Distribution - **Meta's Supplier Shares**: - Xuchuang (20%), Finisar (30-40%), New Yisheng (20-30%) [5][26] - **Google's Supplier Shares**: - Xuchuang (70%), Cloud Light (20%), Finisar (10%) [6][27] - **AWS's Supplier Shares**: - New Yisheng (60-70%), Finisar (15%), Xuchuang (20%) [7][27]. Additional Insights - **Cambridge's Supply to Cisco**: Expected to supply 600,000 units in 2025, with potential expansion to 2.5-3 million units in 2026 [14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for optical modules is influenced by the supply chain management of cloud service providers, with a notable reliance on third-party vendors for procurement [12][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the optical module market, highlighting demand forecasts, manufacturer capacities, and customer-supplier dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of hardware-software innovation axes, predicting significant advancements in new hardware technologies by 2025H2, with a focus on both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [4][20] - Key short-term opportunities include GPU+HPM, optical devices, silicon photonics, lidar, automotive chips, RoboVan, and AI glasses, while long-term innovations are deemed more critical [4][20] - The report highlights the 2B market opportunities in optical devices, silicon photonics, GPU, and high-end products, alongside 2C market opportunities in automotive, RoboVan, wearables, and bio-electronic interactive devices [4][20] Summary by Sections 1. Hardware-Software Innovation Axes - The report discusses the "hardware Y-software X" axis as a framework for predicting new hardware innovations, linking technological advancements from 2022H2 to 2025H2 [4][20] - It identifies the need for a focus on architecture innovation and "physical-chemical-biological AI" as critical elements for future hardware development [4][20] 2. Market Opportunities - The 2B market is characterized by opportunities in optical devices, silicon photonics, and high-end GPUs, while the 2C market includes automotive technologies, RoboVan, wearables, and bio-electronic devices [4][20] - The report notes that the optical device opportunities arise from the MoE architecture, which differs from simple computational upgrades under the "Scaling Law" [4][20] 3. Underestimated Factors - The report points out two often-overlooked factors: architecture innovation and the integration of physical-chemical-biological AI, which are crucial for the advancement of new hardware [4][20] 4. Representative Companies - The report lists several companies as representative in the new hardware space, including: - Optical devices: NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huagong Technology, Changguang Huaxin - Lidar: Hesai Technology (US), Suteng Juchuang (HK) - AR+AI glasses: Hongjing Optoelectronics, Crystal Optoelectronics, Hongsoft Technology, GoerTek, Xiaomi Group (HK) - Advanced semiconductor processes and GPUs: SMIC, Muxi Integration, Suiyuan Technology, Haiguang Information, Cambrian [6][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **optical communication** industry and its developments, particularly driven by advancements in AI and new technologies from companies like **Broadcom** and **Credo** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Broadcom's TH6 Network Chip**: The release of the TH6 network chip, which supports 102T switching, significantly enhances AI data center network performance and accelerates the development of 200G/224G SerDes technology, acting as a catalyst for the AI optical communication sector [1][5]. - **Credo's Financial Performance**: Credo reported a 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and nearly 180% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and plans to increase capital expenditures, reflecting optimism about AI's future [1][7]. - **Xena's Revenue Trends**: Xena's revenue grew by over 20% year-over-year, although gross margins declined due to rising costs. Despite this, overall revenue trends indicate benefits from industry growth [1][8]. - **Fiber Optic Cable Demand**: The demand for fiber optic jumpers is robust, with companies like **Hengtai Light** and others benefiting from the rollout of 800G/1.6T technologies [1][6]. - **Emerging Technologies**: New CPU technologies and silicon photonics are expected to improve the gross margins and profitability of optical modules, with demand for 1.6T and 800G modules anticipated to rise through 2026 [1][11][12]. Notable Companies and Their Prospects - **Hengtai Light**: Recognized as a core wiring solution provider, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed optical communication solutions [1][6]. - **Taiwanese Server Manufacturers**: Companies like **Weichuang** are seeing significant revenue growth in AI servers, reflecting the overall industry's positive outlook [1][10]. - **Ciena and Akasia**: These companies are noted for their unique positions in the global long-distance data center and network transmission markets, expected to continue benefiting from industry developments [1][10]. - **New Yi Sheng and Tianfu Communication**: These companies are highlighted for their potential growth due to increasing demand from major internet firms [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **ByteDance's Spring Conference**: The upcoming ByteDance conference is expected to positively impact the communication sector, particularly for companies closely collaborating with ByteDance, such as **Guanghe Tong** [1][14]. - **IDC Sector Outlook**: The IDC sector is projected to have a positive outlook in the second half of 2025, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to yield results [1][15][16]. - **NVIDIA's New Product Launch**: NVIDIA's upcoming product releases are anticipated to enhance computing infrastructure and AI application demand, presenting investment opportunities [1][17]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call, focusing on the optical communication industry and its key players.

截止到今年四月底，中国光模块上市公司先后有8家公司发布2024年业绩报告，包括中际旭创、剑桥科技、新易盛、光迅科技、剑桥科技、天孚通信、天 辰光、联特科技。 | | | 八家光模块上市公司业绩统计表 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 验收 | 自席は长 | 净利润 | | 中际旭创 | 238.62亿 | 122.64% | 51.71亿 | | 剑桥科技 | 36.52亿 | 18.31% | 1.67亿 | | 新易盛 | 86.47亿 | 179.15% | 28.38亿 | | 光迅科技 | 82.72亿 | 36.49% | 6.61亿 | | 天孚通信 | 32.52亿 | 0. 67.74% | 13.44Z | | 太辰光 | 13.78亿 | 55.73% | 2.61亿 | | 联特科技 | 8.91亿 | 47.11% | 9295.26万 | | 华工科技 | 117.09亿 | 13.57% | 12.21亿 | 2024年营收超过百亿的光通信公司有2家，中际旭创位居榜首，营收达到238.62亿元；华工科技位列第二，2024年营收达到117.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the computing and optical communication sectors, including Broadcom, Ciena, and several others in the supply chain [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing importance of network infrastructure in AI systems, highlighting that the network has become a critical factor in performance optimization, shifting the bottleneck from single-chip computing to node interconnection [2][3]. - It notes that the capital expenditure (Capex) structure for AI infrastructure is increasingly allocating a larger share to networking components, as seen in Meta's deployment of a 24K cluster where network costs exceed one-third of the total computing expenses [3][4]. - The report discusses the long-term trend of ASICs being explored by major companies like Microsoft and Google, suggesting that while ASICs may optimize costs, the reliance on high-performance networking remains essential across all architectures [4][5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Broadcom - Broadcom reported FY25 Q2 revenue of $15 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, driven by AI business growth and VMware integration [1]. - The semiconductor solutions segment generated $8.4 billion, with AI business revenue reaching $4.4 billion, up 46% year-over-year [1][22]. - The company projects FY25 Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion, with AI business expected to contribute $5.1 billion [1][22]. Section 2: Ciena - Ciena's FY25 Q2 revenue was $1.13 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP net profit of $9 million compared to a loss of $16.8 million in the previous year [7]. - The decline in gross margin to 41% from 43.5% is attributed to strong demand for pluggable optical modules, impacting cost pressures [7][29]. - The report suggests that Ciena's reliance on foreign suppliers may affect its cost structure, and a shift back to domestic suppliers could improve margins [29]. Section 3: Industry Trends - The optical communication index outperformed the broader communication sector, with significant gains in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi [18][19]. - The report highlights a notable recovery trend in overseas computing demand, recommending investments in leading optical module companies and related sectors [8][29]. - The communication sector's performance is illustrated by various indices, with the optical communication index rising by 8.9% [21]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the computing and optical communication sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi, and others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI infrastructure [8][14]. - Specific recommendations include companies involved in optical components, copper links, computing devices, and edge computing platforms [14].

Group 1 - The company has approved a cash dividend distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, which will be executed based on the total share capital as of the record date [1][2] - The distribution plan involves a cash dividend of 2.60 RMB per 10 shares (before tax), with a total cash dividend amounting to approximately 209.78 million RMB [1][2] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for June 16, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is June 17, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The dividend distribution will be applicable to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shenzhen Branch as of the record date [2] - The cash dividends will be directly credited to the shareholders' accounts through their securities companies or other custodians on the ex-dividend date [2] - Adjustments will be made to the grant price of restricted stock and the repurchase price of unvested restricted stock in accordance with the company's incentive plans following the dividend distribution [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Oriental Communication, has authorized its management to sell part of its shares in Bochuang Technology within 12 months, following board approval, through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The board of directors approved the plan to sell trading financial assets during a meeting on June 6, 2025, allowing management to execute the sale within a year [1]. - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring and does not require shareholder meeting approval [1]. Group 2: Transaction Target Information - Bochuang Technology, established on July 8, 2003, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on October 12, 2016, specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of integrated optoelectronic devices in the optical communication field [2]. - Oriental Communication currently holds 6,915,961 shares of Bochuang Technology, which are free from any pledges, disputes, or legal issues [2]. Group 3: Sale Plan and Purpose - The sale will be executed based on the company's operational needs, with the selling price not to be lower than the initial public offering price of Bochuang Technology, adjusted for any corporate actions [2]. - The company acknowledges the uncertainty of returns due to market price fluctuations and commits to timely information disclosure regarding the sale's progress [2].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI computing market** and **optical module market**, with a focus on companies like **NVIDIA**, **Broadcom**, and **Mellanox** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][12][24]. Key Points and Arguments NVIDIA Highlights - NVIDIA's quarterly report indicates that **Blackwell products** accounted for **70%** of its revenue in Q1, with a deployment speed of **1,000 racks per week**. The expected deployment for Q2 is between **6,000 to 10,000 racks** [1][4]. - The transition from **GB200 to GB300** is expected to be smooth, with **GB300** potentially shipping by the end of Q2. Key changes include enhanced **HBM configuration** and standard **CX8 network cards** [1][4]. - The recovery in **network card sales** significantly impacts the release of **1.6T orders** [4]. Mellanox Performance - Mellanox's network business exceeded expectations, with **MV link sales** around **$1 billion** and contributions from **ID and Ethereum** also reaching **$1 billion** quarter-over-quarter [5]. Sovereign AI Investments - Sovereign nations are investing more in AI than anticipated, with significant orders from countries like **Saudi Arabia**. NVIDIA plans to promote more sovereign AI deals in Europe [6]. - The **Google IO conference** highlighted a **50-fold year-over-year increase** in monthly **TOKEN consumption**, reaching **480 trillion**, which supports the demand for AI inference [6]. Optical Module Market - The optical module market is expected to see significant growth next year, with **800G products** projected to grow by over **50%** in volume, while price declines are expected to be limited [3][12]. - The anticipated demand for **1.6T** products is expected to double next year, driven by the increased adoption of **GB300** and **GB200** configurations [3][13]. Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 - Broadcom's **Tomahawk 6** was released earlier than expected, which is anticipated to accelerate industry iteration. Full-scale delivery is expected by **2026 or 2027** [7][8]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The overall industry feedback is positive, with strong signals from the AI computing infrastructure construction and a recovery in the supply chain [2]. - Companies like **NewEase** are gaining market share, with their share in the **800G and 400G** sectors exceeding **20%** in 2025 [15][16]. - **Tianfu Communication** is recommended as a key investment due to its leading position in the **1.6T optical engine market**, with significant growth expected from its partnerships, particularly with **MetaLus** [19][20]. Passive Components vs. Optical Modules - Passive components are noted to have better gross margins and long-term certainty compared to optical modules. The optical device market is projected to reach approximately **100 billion RMB** (around **$15 billion**) by 2025, with passive components accounting for a significant portion [24][25]. AI Technology Impact - The development of AI technology is significantly impacting the industry, with major cloud providers expected to see profits exceeding **$350 billion** by 2025, driven by the ongoing AI arms race [26]. Future Outlook - The hardware industry outlook for **2026** is optimistic, with strong indicators of growth and profitability across various sectors [28]. Other Important Content - The conference also touched on the potential of **multi-modal model training** in AI, which is expected to expand beyond current applications, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for AI technologies [27].

Summary of the Conference Call for Shijia Photonics Company Overview - **Company**: Shijia Photonics - **Industry**: Optical Communication Key Points and Arguments Production and Capacity Expansion - The Thai factory of Shijia Photonics is expanding production in an orderly manner, with capacity gradually being released in Q2. Domestic expansion is also ongoing to meet increasing market demand [2][4] - The company has strategically stocked materials to mitigate supply shortages, including fiber optics and connectors, ensuring optimistic growth in overall performance for Q1 and Q2 [3] Demand and Market Trends - Significant growth in demand for optical modules is expected next year, particularly for FR2 and FR4 products, with a stable and optimistic supply situation for AWG components [2][8] - The data center construction is driving an increase in high-margin multi-core optical cable orders, with good performance in Q1 and growth in both gross profit and revenue [2][14] Financial Performance - The company reported a loss in Q1 but expects to narrow losses or achieve breakeven in Q2, contingent on successfully transitioning to three-inch indium phosphide substrates and price increases for 2.5G DFB products [2][11] - The traditional 2.5G DFB market is expected to remain flat compared to last year due to capacity constraints, with a gradual shift to three-inch wafers anticipated to improve capacity over time [10] Strategic Developments - The company has made breakthroughs with strategic large customers, particularly overseas component suppliers, with increasing demand for MPO products [2][5] - Continuous recruitment and training of personnel are being conducted to support MPO business development, with production lines operating in shifts to maximize output [2][27] Future Outlook - Over the next three years, the market demand for 800G optical modules is projected to grow significantly, with AWG product penetration expected to increase [2][26] - The company is optimistic about the future, particularly in the CW business, with incentive programs in place to enhance yield and gross margins [9] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in the traditional access network business, where profitability remains difficult if it continues to focus on 2.5G products. A shift towards 10G or 25G products is seen as a more favorable direction [11] - The impact of tariffs on various business segments is minimal, as the company has the ability to switch production origins to benefit from exemption policies [6][7] Additional Insights - The AWG component's gross margin is expected to improve as production scales up, with lower equipment amortization costs contributing to higher profitability [18] - The company is cautious about expanding production capacity blindly and will evaluate the situation based on order demand [22][25] Conclusion - Shijia Photonics is positioned for growth in the optical communication sector, with strategic expansions, a focus on high-demand products, and a commitment to improving financial performance through operational efficiencies and market adaptations [2][28]

Summary of Cambridge Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cambridge Technology - **Industry**: Optical Modules and AI Technology Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - Cambridge Technology expects to ship over **1.2 million optical modules** in 2025, with **800G modules** accounting for half of the total shipments [2] - The demand for **800G optical modules** is driven by the rapid growth of the global AI industry, particularly from North American CSPs like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft [2][6] - The **800G market** is anticipated to grow significantly, potentially outpacing the growth of NVIDIA's GPU market, presenting opportunities for Cambridge Technology [2][6] Business Strategy and Partnerships - Cambridge Technology has a deep partnership with **Cisco**, utilizing a **Joint Development Model (JDM)** for optical modules, which enhances collaboration in product design and development [7][8] - The company plans to use **50% of its IPO proceeds** for capacity expansion and **20% for R&D** [12] - The current monthly production capacity is approximately **200,000 optical modules**, with a target of **3 million modules** for the next year [2][11] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately **3.6 billion to 3.7 billion yuan**, with optical module business contributing around **500 million yuan** [3] - The expected revenue from optical modules is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026, with a potential total revenue of **7 billion yuan** in 2026 [23][52] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, despite anticipated long-term price declines for optical modules [19][20] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capabilities, with plans to reach a monthly capacity of **200,000 modules by the end of this year** and **300,000 modules next year** [11][17][50] - The production of **800G optical modules** primarily utilizes silicon photonics technology, with prices around **$400 to $500 per unit** [18][45] Customer Base and Demand Forecast - Major customers include **Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle, and Tesla**, with significant demand expected from these clients [9][42] - The demand for **800G modules** is projected to increase sharply, with Cisco's forecast indicating that **50% of its 800G demand** will be supplied by Cambridge Technology [42] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its future growth, driven by the increasing demand for optical modules from major cloud service providers and the expansion of its product offerings [53] - Cambridge Technology is preparing for its IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to become a leading player in the AI computing communication sector [48] Additional Insights - The company has a strong focus on R&D, particularly in new technologies like **25G PON, 50G PON, and WiFi 7**, to maintain competitiveness [4][32] - Cambridge Technology is actively engaging with new clients and exploring collaborative opportunities beyond traditional supply relationships [29][41] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market opportunities, and financial outlook.