研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 三美股份 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry (603379 CH) 业绩保持增长，看好三代制冷剂景气周期 Growth Maintained, Positive with Three Generations of Refrigerant Boom Cycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 上调至优于大市 Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb44.10 目标价 Rmb59.40 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb26.92bn / US$3.71bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$30.59mn 发行股票数目 610.48mn 自由流通股 (%) 33% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb46.48-Rmb26.07 注：现价 Rmb44.10 为 20 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年04月30日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3287 | -0.05 | 0.56 | | 深证成份指数 | 9850 | -0.05 | 1.38 | | 沪深300指数 | 3775 | -0.17 | 0.38 | | 创业板指数 | 1932 | -0.13 | 1.74 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.01 | | 上证基金指数 | 6758 | -0.06 | 0.71 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 22008 | 0.16 | 2.74 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8068 | -0.15 | 2.32 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 20233 | 0.99 | 2.46 | | 道琼斯指数 | 40528 | 0.75 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 2.002 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.14% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 0.39 billion, up 39.30% year-on-year [2] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 0.22 billion, reflecting a growth of 20.80% [2] Group 2: Product Performance - The shipment volume of battery chemicals significantly increased, driven by a competitive market for lithium battery materials [2] - The electrolyte business saw a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in shipment volume, although prices experienced a decline [5] - The overseas sales of electrolytes accounted for nearly 20% of total sales in Q1 2025 [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The demand for fluorinated liquids is expected to grow, particularly due to the increasing installation of wafer fabs [3] - The company anticipates stable growth in the fluorinated liquid market, supported by its unique technological advantages [3] - The emerging industries such as new energy and data centers are expected to drive demand for related fluorine materials [2] Group 4: Project Updates - The Haidefu project showed improved sales performance and reduced losses in Q1 2025, with expectations for better performance than in 2024 [4] - The Malaysian electrolyte project is in the early approval and planning stages, with completion expected within two years [7] - The acquisition of Jiangxi Shilei has resulted in good operational performance, with full production capacity achieved [8] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase R&D investment to expand its product line and enhance market share [3] - The 2023 stock incentive plan is expected to incur expenses of approximately CNY 60-70 million, to be recognized quarterly [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly increased due to the continuous rise in refrigerant prices, with a notable growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025 [2][3] - The company has established a complete fluorochemical industry chain, becoming a major supplier in the industry, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 779 million yuan, up 178.40% year-on-year - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.20% [2][4] Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The average selling price of fluorinated refrigerants increased by 28.17% to 26,100 yuan per ton in 2024, with sales volume growing by 1.65% to 125,400 tons - The gross margin for the fluorinated refrigerant business improved significantly, reaching 33.51%, an increase of 21.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 5.74 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, translating to a basic earnings per share of 3.00 yuan [4]

Key Insights - The report highlights the growth in the active bond fund sector, with a total of 3,263 funds and a total scale of 7.90 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [7][8] - The performance of active bond funds showed mixed results, with short-term pure bond funds performing well due to rising government bond yields, while mixed secondary bond funds saw increased volatility [7][8] - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation within bond funds, with a decrease in bond positions and an increase in equity positions, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 1: Active Bond Fund Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the number of active bond funds increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, while the total fund scale rose by 1.0% [7] - In Q1 2025, 43 new active bond funds were issued, totaling 783.7 billion yuan, which is a 16.7% decrease from the previous quarter [7] - The issuance of medium to long-term pure bond funds decreased by 31.5%, while mixed secondary bond funds saw a 65.1% increase in issuance [7] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - For Mindray Medical (300760.SZ), the company reported a revenue of 36.726 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.14%, with a net profit of 11.668 billion yuan, up 0.74% [9][10] - The company’s international business grew by 21.28%, accounting for approximately 45% of total revenue, indicating a strong international expansion strategy [11] - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic business by Q3 2025, despite a significant year-on-year decline in Q1 2025 [11] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report on Haibo Technology (688411.SH) indicates a revenue of 8.270 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 18.44%, with a focus on energy storage systems [14][15] - The company’s energy storage product output and sales saw significant increases, with a 35.40% rise in production and a 90.19% increase in sales [15] - The report emphasizes the company’s leading position in the domestic energy storage market and its successful international partnerships [17] Group 4: Financial Performance - For Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH), the company achieved a revenue of 4.040 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.17% increase, with a net profit growth of 178.40% [24][25] - The report highlights the impact of rising refrigerant prices and strong demand from the home appliance and automotive sectors on the company’s financial performance [25][26] - The company is expected to maintain strong performance due to favorable supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [28] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic medical device market, particularly for Mindray Medical, is poised for recovery, with expectations of improved performance in 2025 [11][12] - Haibo Technology is projected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by its strong market position and international expansion efforts [17][18] - Sanmei Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in the refrigerant market, with projections for significant profit growth in the coming years [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in performance, benefiting from the improved market conditions for refrigerants [1] - The revenue for 2024 reached 24.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.556 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.52% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2024 were the expansion of the consolidated reporting scope, increased production, and higher prices. The three main business segments—refrigerants, petrochemical materials, and basic chemical products—continued to contribute significantly [2] - Refrigerant production for the year was 591,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.12%, with external sales of 353,000 tons, up 22.61% [2] - Petrochemical materials production was 607,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.14%, with external sales of 522,100 tons, up 45.70% [2] - Basic chemical products and others produced 3.0402 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.90%, with external sales of 1.7852 million tons, up 12.03% [2] Cost Management - The company reduced its sales expense ratio primarily due to decreased leasing costs. The sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratios changed by -0.18%/+0.06%/+0.28%/-0.54% year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the production of new projects and enhancing its global HFCs quota advantage to establish a leading position in the refrigerant market. It has successfully completed the acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical, integrating its annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of HFCs and related facilities [4] - The company has also added new products in fine chemicals, significantly increasing the business proportion of fluorinated refrigerants and fine chemical products [4] - The annual production capacity of 85,700 tons of organic alcohol has been successfully put into operation, steadily increasing the domestic market share of organic alcohol products [4] Profit Forecast - The company’s profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 projected at 3.714 billion, 4.919 billion, and 6.050 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.5, 14.0, and 11.4 times for the respective years [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, particularly benefiting from the ongoing upcycle in refrigerants, with significant growth expected in the coming years [7]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 29.36 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.51 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 3.30 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a recovery with 18% growth in 2024 [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.6 in 2023 to 20.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [15]. Market Position - The company has solidified its market position as a leading player in the fluorochemical sector, particularly in the production of fluorinated refrigerants and chlorinated raw materials, with a global leadership status [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant increase in sales and production across key product lines, particularly in refrigerants, where average prices rose over 50% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [8][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for refrigerants driven by summer heat, with active trading in a low inventory context [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 reaching 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2][24]. - The implementation of the Montreal Protocol's national plan is expected to tighten supply and enhance the long-term outlook for refrigerant prices, particularly for R22 and R32 [4][56]. Summary by Sections 1. April Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the fluorochemical index stood at 1,232.89 points, down 2.60% from March, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 0.63 percentage points [1][16]. 2. April Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Refrigerant Price and Spread Performance - Prices for refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant month-on-month increases of 14% and 9% respectively in March [22][24]. - The report notes that R22 prices are stable at 36,000 yuan/ton, while R134a remains at 47,000 yuan/ton [24]. 2.2 Refrigerant Export Data Tracking - In Q1 2025, R32 exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 38.4% [31]. - March saw a significant rebound in export volumes, with R22 and R32 experiencing month-on-month growth of 165% and 150% respectively [31][32]. 2.3 Major Refrigerant Operating Rates and Production Data Tracking - The report indicates that production quotas for R22 have been reduced by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting tighter supply constraints [58]. 3. Implementation of the Montreal Protocol National Plan - The national plan aims to reduce HCFCs production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, with a complete phase-out by 2030 [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commitment to reducing HFCs, with a target of a 10% reduction by 2029 [4][56]. 4. Air Conditioning/Automobile/Refrigerator Production and Export Data Tracking 4.1 Air Conditioning - The report notes a continuous year-on-year increase in air conditioning production for Q2 2025, with domestic production expected to rise significantly [5][65]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as having strong profit growth prospects, with Juhua Co. expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 yuan per share in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.002 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year but down 4.45% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The growth in organic fluorine and the increase in electrolyte volume, despite a price drop, have contributed to the company's resilient performance [2] - The company is deepening its international market presence and expects accelerated growth in organic fluorine products, particularly following the exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquid production [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.002 billion yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by the growth in capacitor chemicals, electrolytes, and organic fluorine sales [2] - The average price of electrolytes in Q1 2025 was 19,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 24.55%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has invested in key raw materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and is expanding its global footprint with a new electrolyte base in Malaysia, enhancing its ability to respond to international customer demands [3] - The company anticipates significant growth in its fluorinated liquid products due to the closure of 3M's production capacity [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.198 billion, 1.541 billion, and 1.949 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.1, 14.8, and 11.7 [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and the CSI 300 Chemical Index reported 2064.08 points, with a decline of 7.57% in the last month, 6.98% in the last three months, and 6.77% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Chemical Index are: Wanhua Chemical (23.08%), Salt Lake Industry (13.6%), Baofeng Energy (7.79%), Juhua Co. (7.6%), Hengli Petrochemical (7.22%), Satellite Chemical (6.88%), Hualu Hengsheng (6.64%), Zangge Mining (6.38%), Longbai Group (6.1%), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (5.49%) [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry composition within the CSI 300 Chemical Index, other chemical raw materials account for 39.09%, polyurethane for 23.08%, potassium fertilizer for 19.98%, fluorochemical for 7.60%, titanium dioxide for 6.10%, and organic silicon for 4.15% [2] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples or significant events affecting sample companies [2]