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突发!全线大跌,特朗普关税威胁
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-07-11 10:32
Group 1 - European stock markets experienced a decline, with the Italian FTSE MIB index falling approximately 1.3% and dropping below 40,000 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 index, German DAX index, French CAC40 index, and UK FTSE 100 index also saw declines of about 1%, 1%, 0.93%, and 0.5% respectively [1][2] - Concerns over tariffs were a significant factor behind the collective drop in European stock markets, as President Trump announced plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trading partners [2][3] - Trump indicated that the current standard for blanket tariffs is 10%, and he expressed confidence that these tariffs would be well-received, despite the potential negative impact on the stock market and inflation [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Statistics indicated that inflation has eased since the COVID-19 pandemic but remains above 2.3%. Trump dismissed concerns raised by the CEO of Hasbro regarding potential price increases for toys due to tariffs, suggesting that domestic production would mitigate such price hikes [5][6] - Trump sent letters to 22 countries establishing tariff rates, including a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and copper imports, with plans for implementation next month. This action is part of a broader strategy that has yet to yield any formal trade agreements [5][6] - The EU, as the largest trading partner of the U.S., imported over $600 billion worth of goods from the U.S. last year, while Canada imported over $400 billion. The EU is prepared to implement over $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs targeting goods from Republican-controlled states [6]
突发!全线大跌,特朗普关税威胁!
中国基金报· 2025-07-11 10:14
【导读】 白宫料将向欧盟发出关税信,欧洲股市应声下跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好,关注一下欧洲股市的消息。 北京时间7月11日傍晚,欧洲股市跌幅扩大,意大利富时MIB指数失守40000点,日内跌约 1.3%。欧洲斯托克50指数、德国DAX指数跌约1%,法国CAC40指数跌0.93%,英国富时 100指数跌0.5%。 欧洲股市集体下跌的背后,是对关税的担忧。 特朗普周四表示,他计划对大多数贸易伙伴征收15%或20%的普遍性关税(blanket tariffs),并淡化了进一步加征关税可能对股市或通胀造成负面影响的担忧。 特朗普在电话采访中说:"我们会宣布,剩下的所有国家都要缴纳,不管是20%还是15%,我 们现在会把这个定下来。"目前普遍性关税的标准是10%。 特朗普还说:"我认为这些关税受到了非常好的欢迎。今天股市创下新高。" 标普500指数周四收盘创下历史新高,但这是在经历了几个月剧烈震荡之后出现的。今年4月 2日特朗普宣布首轮全球关税后,标普500指数在接下来的几天内经历了历史上最快速的20% 跌幅之一。 当天,特朗普还无视孩之宝CEO关于关税可能导致玩具价格在今年晚些时候上涨的警告。 特朗普说:"如果 ...
大类资产早报-20250711
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:04
Report Information - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance Report - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Research Team: Research Center Macro Team [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.351%, 4.595%, 3.397% respectively. Yields in Japan, Brazil, China were 3.873%, 6.548%, 1.660% respectively. - Latest changes ranged from 0.003% (US) to 0.123% (France). Weekly changes ranged from - 0.010% (US) to 0.241% (Spain). Monthly changes ranged from -0.495% (Italy) to 0.348% (US). Annual changes ranged from -0.870% (Japan) to 0.398% (Germany) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 10, 2025, yields in China (1Y), US, UK were 3.900%, 3.853%, 1.887% respectively. - Latest changes ranged from -0.022% (US) to 0.120% (China). Weekly changes ranged from 0.008% (Korea) to 0.119% (Australia). Monthly changes ranged from -0.042% (Italy) to 0.150% (China). Annual changes ranged from -1.374% (Japan) to 0.398% (Germany) [3] US Dollar to Major Emerging - Economy Currency Exchange Rates - On July 10, 2025, exchange rates against the US dollar for Brazil, Russia, South Africa were 5.532, 108.000, 17.747 respectively. - Latest changes ranged from -0.73% (Brazil) to 0.00% (Russia). Weekly changes ranged from -0.14% (Korea) to 2.27% (Brazil). Monthly changes ranged from -0.16% (South Africa) to 1.23% (Korea). Annual changes ranged from -11.28% (Thailand) to 0.00% (Russia) [3] RMB Exchange Rates - On July 10, 2025, on - shore RMB was 7.178, off - shore RMB was 7.179, and the mid - price was 7.151. - Latest changes ranged from -0.05% (off - shore RMB) to 0.07% (12 - month NDF). Weekly changes ranged from -0.02% (mid - price) to 0.13% (12 - month NDF). Monthly changes ranged from -0.41% (mid - price) to 0.09% (12 - month NDF). Annual changes ranged from -1.75% (off - shore RMB) to 0.31% (mid - price) [3] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On July 10, 2025, the Dow Jones was 6280.460, S&P 500 was 44650.640, and NASDAQ was 20630.660. - Latest changes ranged from -0.79% (Spanish index) to 1.23% (UK index). Weekly changes ranged from -1.99% (Mexican index) to 2.18% (German DAX). Monthly changes ranged from -1.88% (Mexican index) to 4.92% (NASDAQ). Annual changes ranged from 4.83% (French CAC) to 34.64% (German DAX) [3] Emerging Economies' Stock Indexes - On July 10, 2025, the Malaysian index was 1536.520, Australian index was 8826.717, and another index was 1231.260. - Latest changes ranged from 0.28% to 0.56%. Weekly changes ranged from -0.81% to -0.08%. Monthly changes ranged from 0.35% to 2.37%. Annual changes ranged from -3.84% to 14.03% [3] Credit Bond Indexes - Latest changes ranged from -0.11% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 0.09% (US high - yield credit bond index). - Weekly changes ranged from -0.16% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 0.33% (US high - yield credit bond index). - Monthly changes ranged from 0.15% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 1.53% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index). - Annual changes ranged from 6.41% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 15.38% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index) [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - On July 10, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3509.68, with a 0.48% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4010.02, with a 0.47% increase [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.34, with a 0.07% increase. PE (TTM) of S&P 500 was 26.71, with a 0.08% increase [4] Risk Premium - The risk premium of CSI 300 was 3.70, with no change. The risk premium of S&P 500 was -0.61, with a -0.03% change [4] Fund Flow - The latest A - share fund flow was -256.13, and the 5 - day average was -339.44. The latest CSI 300 fund flow was 120.60, and the 5 - day average was 33.10 [4] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14941.48, with a -110.28 change. The latest trading volume of CSI 300 was 3478.37, with a 424.38 change [4] Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of IF was -38.02, with a -0.95% discount. The basis of IH was -16.53, with a -0.60% discount [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - On July 10, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.845, 105.990, 108.890, 106.095 respectively, with changes of 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.01% respectively [5] Funding Rates - R001 was 1.3870%, with a -11.00 BP change. R007 was 1.5208%, with a 2.00 BP change. SHIBOR - 3M was 1.5590%, with no change [5]
【环球财经】被加征50%关税后 巴西金融市场震荡
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 00:29
Group 1 - The announcement by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on all exports from Brazil has led to significant volatility in the Brazilian financial market, with the Ibovespa index falling by 0.54% to 136,743.26 points and the USD/BRL exchange rate rising by 0.69% to 5.5416 BRL [1] - The new tariff, effective from August 1, is a substantial increase from the previously proposed 10% tariff announced in April, raising concerns about the impact on Brazil's industrial exports and the overall economic relationship between the two countries [1][2] - Brazil's Vice President Alckmin criticized the tariff increase, stating that Brazil's trade with the U.S. is balanced and that the measure is unfair, potentially harming the U.S. economy as well [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian economy is facing greater policy coordination challenges due to the sudden shift in external trade conditions and increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the rising consumer price index [3]
特朗普关税威胁震动巴西市场,股汇双双下跌
news flash· 2025-07-10 12:50
Core Viewpoint - The threat of a 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the Brazilian financial markets, leading to declines in both currency and stock indices [1] Market Reaction - The Brazilian real fell by 0.8% against the US dollar, continuing its previous day's decline [1] - Stock index futures dropped by 1.5% [1] - Interest rate swap contracts experienced a widespread decline [1] - In the New York market, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF saw a pre-market drop of 3.2% [1] Trade Policy Implications - Brazil has re-entered Trump's trade policy focus after months of relative calm, leading to expectations of increased market volatility in the short term [1] - The proposed tariff is significantly higher than the previously anticipated 10% base rate [1] - Uncertainty remains regarding how effective negotiations between the two countries can be conducted [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ilan Albertman from Ativa noted that this tariff threat adds new risk factors to Brazilian local assets, potentially leading to greater volatility [1] - Companies with significant exposure to the US market may need to reassess their cash flows and valuations in light of this development [1]
“互联互通”新十年,两地资本市场规则或将趋于一致
Sou Hu Wang· 2025-07-09 01:42
Group 1 - The year 2025 marks the beginning of a new decade for the interconnection between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, with expectations for deeper integration [1] - Since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014, the range of interconnected financial products has expanded from stocks to various other financial instruments, including ETF Connect and Bond Connect [1] - The average daily trading volume for northbound and southbound trading has increased significantly, with a 21-fold and 40-fold growth respectively compared to the first month of operation in 2014 [1] Group 2 - Industry experts emphasize the need to simplify trading processes and align institutional, informational, and technical elements to enhance the integration of stock markets [1] - Current rules for the Hong Kong Stock Connect are complex, leading to difficulties for investors in understanding the criteria for inclusion and exclusion of stocks [1][2] - The calculation method for market capitalization under the Hong Kong Stock Connect has not been updated to align with the new methodology adopted by the Hang Seng Index, which could lead to misinterpretations by investors [2] Group 3 - The adjustment in the Hang Seng Index's calculation method is seen as more scientific, potentially increasing the quality of stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2] - There are expectations that the rules for the Hong Kong Stock Connect will be revised to match the Hang Seng Index's calculation method by the second half of 2025 [3] - The deepening of interconnectivity is viewed as crucial for the development of both capital markets, enhancing their international competitiveness and facilitating high-quality growth [3]
央行金融市场司江会芬:债券通“南向通”参与投资者将扩容至非银机构
news flash· 2025-07-08 05:57
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced three new measures to enhance the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong financial markets, supporting the development of the offshore RMB market [1] - The measures include improving the operational mechanism of the Bond Connect "Southbound" channel, allowing more domestic investors to invest in the offshore bond market [1] - The scope of domestic investors will soon be expanded to include four types of non-bank institutions: securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management [1]
美股三大指数齐跌 技术指标现“过热”警告
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 22:41
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.94%, the S&P 500 down 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.92% due to market sentiment affected by Trump's renewed tariff plans [1] - Investors opted for profit-taking ahead of the holiday, contributing to the decline in market indices [1] Technical Indicators - A widely watched market technical indicator has signaled a potential market "overheating," as the S&P 500 index has broken its upper Bollinger Band seven times in the past eight trading days [1] - Jason Goepfert from SentimenTrader noted that this phenomenon is particularly notable given the current historical high levels of the S&P 500, raising questions about whether it indicates extraordinary momentum or a typical "too fast" signal [1] - The Bollinger Bands, created by financial analyst John Bollinger in the 1980s, assess whether stock prices are in an "overbought" or "oversold" state by calculating the moving average and adding/subtracting two standard deviations [1] Historical Context - Historical data shows that whenever the S&P 500 triggers this signal at multi-year highs, the index tends to decline in the following week [2] - However, the medium to long-term outlook is mixed, with the S&P 500 having ten instances of rising over 5% and ten instances of falling over 5% within six months after triggering the signal [2] - Notably, only in 1966 and 2000 did such instances lead to bear markets [2] Impact of Tariff Plans - The market turmoil is also influenced by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on exports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, which has overshadowed hopes for an agreement to avoid such tariffs [2] - The initial proposal of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump in April raised concerns on Wall Street about the potential negative impact on global trade and the U.S. economic recovery [2] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index experienced the largest decline, dropping 1.55% on Monday [2] Future Performance Expectations - Historical performance data indicates that after similar market conditions, the median return for the Russell 2000 over two months is +4.8%, while the S&P 500 shows a return of -0.7% [3] - Additionally, the Nasdaq has an 80% probability of positive returns after five months, compared to 68% for the S&P 500 [3]
ABS月报(2025年6月):ABS供需两旺-20250703
CMS· 2025-07-03 12:04
Report Title - ABS Supply and Demand are Booming — ABS Monthly Report (June 2025) [1] Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, the ABS market showed a prosperous situation with growth in both supply and demand. The primary issuance scale increased, the secondary trading volume and turnover rate significantly improved, the investor structure had certain changes, and the yields and spreads also presented corresponding trends [2][3][4][5] Specific Summaries by Section Primary Issuance - **Issuance Scale**: In June 2025, the ABS issuance scale increased by 36% month-on-month to 205.546 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance scales of credit ABS, enterprise ABS, and ABN were 24.719 billion yuan, 128.621 billion yuan, and 52.206 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month growth rates of 3%, 55%, and 18% [2][8] - **Issuance Term and Interest Rate**: Newly issued ABS in June mostly had a term of 1 - 2 years, and the weighted average coupon rate continued to decline. The weighted average coupon rate was 1.93%, a decrease of 7.82bp compared to May. By ABS type, the weighted term of newly issued credit ABS was 2.80 years with a weighted interest rate of 1.63%; for enterprise ABS, the weighted term was 3.38 years and the weighted interest rate was 2.05%; for ABN, the weighted term was 2.56 years and the weighted interest rate was 1.93% [2][10] Secondary Trading - In June 2025, the ABS trading volume and turnover rate significantly increased. The monthly trading volume was 163.716 billion yuan, a 38.01% increase from May. The monthly turnover rate was 5.0%, a 1.3 percentage point increase from May. Among them, ABN was the most actively traded ABS product type, with a monthly turnover rate of 7.0% in June, a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][16] Investor Structure - **Credit ABS**: Commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main holders, accounting for 69% and 15% respectively. The holding proportions of commercial banks and non - legal person products decreased by 0.55 and 0.04 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month, while the holding proportion of securities companies increased by 0.37 percentage points [4][19] - **ABN**: Non - legal person products and commercial banks held the most, accounting for 62% and 28% respectively, remaining the same as the previous month [4][19] - **Enterprise ABS**: For Shanghai Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, trust institutions and bank self - operations were the main investors, with holding proportions of 31% and 26% respectively as of June, with the trust institution's proportion decreasing by 0.2 percentage points and the bank self - operation's increasing by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month. For Shenzhen Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, trust institutions and general institutions were the main investors, with holding proportions of 32% and 27% respectively as of June, with the trust institution's proportion decreasing by 0.3 percentage points and the general institution's remaining unchanged [4][24] Yields and Spreads - In June, the yields to maturity of ABS at various terms continued to decline. The changes in the yields to maturity of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities compared to May 30, 2025, were - 1.6bp, - 3.1bp, - 6.7bp, and - 7.0bp respectively. The spreads between ABS and medium - and short - term notes mostly decreased. The spreads between 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities and medium - and short - term notes of the same term and rating changed to 5.7bp, - 12.1bp, - 2.5bp, and - 3.5bp respectively, with changes of 0.3bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.1bp respectively [5][26]